THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY INCOME IN U.S. SMSAs, 1959*

An attempt is made in this paper to identify and quantify the relative influence of several economic, social, and demographic factors on variations in the size distribution of family incomes in 208 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) in the United States in 1959. Using a simple ordinary least squares model with Gini's concentration ratio (R) as the proxy for family income inequality, the estimating equations explain up to 89 percent of the SMSA-to-SMSA variation. The “best” explanatory variables are those having to do with size of nonwhite population, occupational structure, and median years of education. City size and region—which are represented by dummy variables—are also revealed as playing an important role, both on their own and in conjunction with other of the independent variables.     

Education, Social Equality and Economic Growth: A View of the Landscape

Education has been one of the key determinants of economic growtharound the world since 1965. In this paper, we discuss threedifferent measures of education, and consider their relationshipto the distribution of income as measured by the Gini coefficientas well as to economic growth across countries. The three measuresare: (a) gross secondary-school enrolment, (b) public expenditureon education relative to national income and (c) expected yearsof schooling for girls. We show that all three measures of educationare directly related to income equality across countries. Ina sample of 87 countries at all income levels, we also findthat more and better education appears to encourage economicgrowth directly as well as indirectly through increased socialequality and cohesion. Our regression results survive the introductionof regional dummy variables for Africa, Asia and Central andSouth America. We argue that the empirical relationship betweeneducation, on the one hand, and growth and equality, on theother hand, can help account for the positive correlation betweenthe two latter variables that has been documented in the literature.(JEL 128, O15, O40)     

公共教育、社会保障与收入分布

本文使用一个世代交叠模型揭示了公共教育与社会保障调节收入分布的作用机制。研究发现,公共教育能够有效地缩小家庭教育投资差距,从而降低收入差异;社会保障则通过减少低收入家庭的劳动供给、增加其有效家庭教育时间来降低收入差异。本文的数值模拟结果显示,在同样的支出水平下公共教育调节收入差异的能力比社会保障更强。并且当存在财政预算约束时,从降低收入差异的角度来看,若财政预算规模较低则应当将资金优先用于公共教育;若财政预算规模较高则应当在公共教育与社会保障之间保持平衡。     

Revisiting Cheerful Jane and Miserable John: the impact of income,good health,social contacts and education declines with increasing subjective well-being

This short note seeks to replicate the quantile regression analysis in Binder and Coad (2011), but taking into account individual-specific fixed effects (FE; using the British Household Panel Survey data set). It finds declining effects of the four main variables of interest (health, social life, income, education) over the quantiles of the subjective well-being distribution, with attenuated effect sizes for the FE model. Equivalized log income has a negative impact on subjective well-being throughout the distribution. Apart from a number of robustness checks, existing research is extended by looking into the quantile effects of the above variables on a set of domain satisfactions.     

A POSITIVE AND A NORMATIVE THEORY OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION

A positive theory of income distribution based on assumptions concerning the supply of and demand for each type of productive service is presented. The demand function of the organizers of production may be derived from the maximization of profits with the income scale and the production function as restrictions. A normative theory based on the maximization of a social utility or welfare function is also considered. In the normative theory, production functions and balance equations (some representing compartmentalization of factor markets) are introduced as restrictions and again an income scale results, this time maximizing social welfare. Empirical testing is also considered. The positive theory was developed in part to take into consideration the fact that personal income distributions can reasonably well be described by log normal distributions, and that skill parameters are often normally distributed. Limited testing of the influence of wealth, intelligence, education, and sex suggest that these account for only a small part of the variance in the income distribution. This suggests the need for further research.     

家庭借贷约束、公共教育支出与社会流动性

人力资本投资是增强社会流动性的重要手段,然而借贷约束使得底层家庭无力对子女进行最优的人力资本投资;与此同时,富裕家庭则不受借贷约束的影响,总体结果是社会流动性减弱。利用中国健康与养老追踪调查和全国综合社会调查数据,本文发现,借贷约束确实提高了居民收入和教育的代际传递弹性,降低了社会流动性。在匹配政府公共教育支出数据后发现,公共教育支出可以缓解家庭层面人力资本投资的不足,提高教育水平的代际流动性。     

Income inequality, consumption, and social-status seeking

Using the Chinese Urban Household Survey data between 1997 and 2006, we find that income inequality has a negative (positive) effect on household consumption net of education expenditures (savings) even after we control for household income. We argue that people save to improve their social status when social status is associated with pecuniary and non-pecuniary benefits. Rising income inequality can strengthen the incentives of status-seeking savings by increasing the benefit of improving status, and by enlarging the wealth level required for status upgrading. We also find that the negative effect of income inequality on consumption is stronger for poorer and younger people and that income inequality stimulates more education investment, which are consistent with the status-seeking hypothesis.     

Social security, public education and the growth-inequality relationship

We study how the relationship between economic growth and inequality depends upon the levels of funding of two of the largest government programs, public education and social security. We do this in the context of an overlapping generations economy with heterogeneous agents where the government collects a tax on labor income to finance these programs. We show that in our model an increase in government spending on social security reduces income inequality and can have a non-monotonic effect on growth. When the initial level of social security funding is low, as is the case in most poor economies, then its increase will enhance growth. When its funding level is high as is typical for developed countries, we show that its further increase can slow down growth while reducing income inequality. These results obtain regardless of whether the increase in social security funding is financed by a tax increase or by cutting the public education budget. We also find that the effects of increasing the level of public education expenditures or the overall size of the government budget (holding the budget composition fixed) are characterized by similar non-monotonic growth-inequality relationships.     

Gender roles,labour market participation and household income position

In empirical research on labour supply behaviour, variables like age, education or the household's financial situation as well as economic and demographic characteristics, social attitudes and gender role schemes are believed to influence the annual working hours. This paper starts from the assumption that these determinants work differently according to the poverty level of the household in which the individual lives. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), the paper empirically tests this hypothesis for women and men living in households with a disposable income above the poverty line and of those living in poor households. The results of multiple regression analysis show traditional gender role patterns in labour supply decisions, but only for persons in households with an income above the poverty line.     

Endowments,Culture and Economic Development

This paper investigates whether the geographic characteristics of a country can explain cross‐country variations in income levels through their ability to explain cross‐country variations in cultural traits that enhance economic development. In other words, this paper attempts to determine whether the geographic endowment can serve as an instrument in examining the effect of culture on economic development. The paper conducts two‐stage least‐squares regressions. The second stage is a regression of the logarithm of real gross domestic product per capita on each of the cultural attributes that are considered in this study. In the first stage, the geographic factors that statistically explain a cultural aspect are used as instrumental variables. The results of the empirical estimation show that the cultural variables, instrumented by the geographic variables, explain cross‐country variations in economic development.     

Swedish economic growth and education since 1800

Abstract.  The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it builds and makes use of long-run data from Sweden on formal education that have never been used to date. Second, it provides a quantitative application of recent theoretical work on the link between demographic changes and economic growth through their effect on education. It concludes that changes in longevity may account for as much as 20% of the observed rise in education over the period from 1800–2000 via a horizon effect, but have little impact on income growth over the period. On the contrary, changes in population density and composition are central, mainly thanks to their effect on productivity. Most income growth over this period would not have materialized if demographic variables had stayed constant since 1800.     

The effect of artificial intelligence on China’s labor market

ABSTRACT

Automation and artificial intelligence technology have played a pivotal role in today’s economic and social development. They represent a labor-substituted technological progress, featuring more and more jobs to be replaced by AI. Based on the adoption rate calculated in our paper and theoretical substitution probability estimated by existing studies, our research estimates the actual substitution probability by AI for various occupations in China. By using this actual substitution probability on occupation level, we also explore the substitution effects on labor force with different characteristics and find that AI has larger substitution impacts on labors of female, old age, low education and low income. We also predict the number of employed people that would be replaced by AI in each industry, and the results show that China will have 278 million labors (201 ~ 333 million under different adoption rates) replaced by AI by 2049, representing 35.8% of the current employment in China.

Abbreviation: Artificial intelligence (AI), internet of things (IoT), Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)     

智慧元素的力量:碘缺乏病防治对我国经济发展的长期影响

碘缺乏病曾是广泛威胁我国民众健康,并对婴幼儿智力发育有着严重阻碍的疾病.我国政府于20世纪70年代中后期开展的大规模补碘运动显著地改善了民众的碘营养状况,因而很可能通过提升个体智力水平而对人力资本积累和经济发展产生深远影响.文章利用2012年中国劳动力动态调查微观数据,对碘缺乏病防治的长期影响进行考察.双重差分的估计结果显示,尽管婴幼儿时期补碘对身高的影响并不明显,但却能够显著地提高个体受教育年限和年收入水平;并且补碘对教育的影响主要产生于初中阶段,对小学阶段和高中阶段的影响并不显著.此外,研究还发现胎儿期是补碘的关键时期,出生后补碘对个体的影响较小.因此,加强对盐业市场的监管,增强民众的补碘意识,对我国的经济发展和脱贫工作有着极其重要的意义.     

Health,Social Insurance and Income

Health, a form of human capital, can be defined by longevity and physical wellbeing. Social policy decisions require an understanding of the factors that contribute to the creation of health inequalities. To learn more about socioeconomic variables and health capital, this paper examines the relationship between three key variables: health, social insurance, and income, for the Swedish population. Using a randomized research survey design, data from 3,600 participants of a larger Swedish study, conducted in 2005, was analyzed. A linear model of Three Stage Least Squares was chosen to correct for simultaneous bias in the Health, Social Insurance, and Income (HSI) Model. Findings confirm the importance of socioeconomic, behavioral and environmental factors in explaining health inequalities. The results clearly show men, educated people, nonsmokers, individuals that exercise and youngsters possess higher health status than other people. The dependency on social insurance is mainly caused by poor health; a higher degree of social insurance dependency was offset by income increases due to age and higher professional level.      

Lineage networks,urban migration and income inequality: Evidence from rural China

This work focuses on the role that Chinese lineage networks can play in alleviating income inequality in rural villages through their effect on migration from rural to urban areas. Unique panel data from rural China identifies lineage networks (ancestral hall and genealogy) and provides detailed information on income and migration experiences. Our key finding is that lineage networks increase migration for all social groups by lowering costs, and this pattern is more salient for the poor. Consequently, this population accumulates greater wealth, which decreases income inequality in origin villages. The estimation results remain robust to both the inclusion of exogenous subsamples and an instrumental variables strategy using the effect of historical natural disasters on current lineage ancestral hall or genealogy. The analysis in this paper, coupled with an emerging empirical literature on networks and migration, provides a new perspective on how income inequality in a fast-growing economy varies with access to social networks.     

School Attainment, Completion, and Economic Development: A Cross-Country Analysis

The primary aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between school attainment, school completion, and economic development. In doing so it also examines the effect of other macroeconomic variables on school attainment and completion. Estimation is conducted using a panel dataset of 138 countries. Our results show that income levels, government expenditure on education, and political instability all have significant effects on school completion and attainment. In addition these variables have different effects on male and female schooling. Our results have important policy implications and in particular allow policymakers to identify different instruments to target the problem of non‐completion of schooling.     

职业分层、中产阶级与收入分配

社会职业不仅反映着人们在社会、经济生活中所处的分工角色,它也带来了人们在收入水平和社会经济地位方面的差距和不同,在各种职业背后存在着以生产条件的占有关系为依据的社会生产关系。社会不可能通过消除普通生产劳动行业和职业,让人们都进入"中等收入"职业。因此,要缩小社会收入分配领域的巨大差距,必须改变现有的分配结构,在初次分配领域,即物质生产领域,进行分配制度的改革,增加普通劳动者的收入,使普通劳动者能够通过勤奋劳动达到"中等收入"水平,这才是在社会主义制度下"扩大中等收入者群体"的正确途径。所谓"人力资本"的收益不过是在雇佣劳动制度的生产方式下,部分人能以物质生产乃至资本主义竞争所必需的知识为条件,进入社会生产关系中具有一定社会经济地位的职业,在这种职业上他们利用社会生产关系所赋予的对生产与竞争能力的控制,从社会剩余产品中占有一定份额。因此,"人力资本"所有者的收入并不是所谓"人力资本"的创造,而是由社会生产关系所决定的收入分配形式。     

LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION, RACE AND HUMAN CAPITAL: INFLUENCE ON EARNINGS DISTRIBUTIONS ACROSS STATES

In this paper we analyze the level of income inequality across states in 1970 and 1980 for several demographic groups. Furthermore, we examine the impact of labor force participation (LFP), education and other variables on inequality. We find that for tshe whole population, states with high LFP by females are states with low income inequality. The same holds true for states with high LFP for men. When we disaggregate by race, the results are quite consistent for whites, but not for blacks. States with relatively high education levels are associated with high inequality levels for the white cohort and the whole population, but there appears to be no similar association between education and inequality across states for blacks.     

Social Security Income and Health Care Spending: Evidence from the Social Security Notch

In this paper, I exploit Social Security legislation changes to identify the causal effect of Social Security income on out‐of‐pocket medical expenditures of the elderly. Using the 1986–1994 Consumer Expenditure Survey and an instrumental variables strategy, the empirical results show that health care expenditures are responsive to changes in Social Security income for elderly individuals with less than a high‐school education. The estimated income elasticities are between 1.41 and 3.47, depending on the outcome measures, and are statistically significant at conventional levels. The findings are in contrast to existing studies that find a small income elasticity at the individual/household level.     

Testing sensitivity of student enrollment with respect to tuition at an institution of higher education

This study was conducted to measure the impact of H-University's (HU's) tuition increases on enrollment. Based on an internal survey, this study attempts to explain the sensitivity of student enrollment to tuition variations. In addition, this paper develops an aggregate enrollment model and uses the common economic variables such as tuition, income, wage rates, financial aids, and unemployment rates to explain the sensitivity of demand. The most significant finding of this study is that tuition consideration seems to have a relatively small effect on students' decisions. Actually, enrollment at HU (a private institution) have increased despite higher tuition rate. Possible justifications could be proposed, such as the necessity of higher education and the fact that higher education is a continued investment in human capital, in which the more relevant decision factor is the corresponding expected rate of return and not just the cost of investment. Presented at the International Atlantic Economic Society's Conference, Vienna, Austria, March 2003.