Assessing Consumer Gains from a Drug Price Control Policy in the United States

We use national data from 1960 to 2000 to estimate the demand for pharmaceuticals in the United States. We then simulate consumer surplus gains from a hypothetical drug price control policy that would have limited drug price increases to the rate of inflation from 1981 to 2000. Using a range of values for the real interest rate, coinsurance rate, and own-price elasticity of demand, we find that the consumer surplus gains from this policy equal $472 billion by the end of 2000. According to a recent study, that same policy would have led to 198 fewer new drugs being brought to the U.S. market. Therefore, the average social opportunity cost per drug developed during this period was approximately $2.4 billion. Research on the value of pharmaceuticals suggests that the social benefits of a new drug are far greater than this estimate. Hence, drug price controls could do more harm than good.     

The Economic Effect Of Competition Law Enforcement: The Case Of The Netherlands

Summary  In this paper we try to bridge the gap between the outcome ambitions of competition policy in terms of welfare gains and consumer surplus and the longer term effects of competition policy on growth and employment. First of all, an overview is given of the different definitions of welfare. We explain why maximising the consumer surplus is an important part of the mission statement for most competition authorities. In the second part of the paper we estimate the impact of the introduction of the competition law on economic development. The effects of antitrust policies, merger control and energy regulation on the consumer surplus appear substantial. This increase in consumer surplus can be interpreted as a cut in the “market power wedge” which, from a modelling point of view, is comparable to a cut in the tax wedge. A model simulation for the Netherlands shows that the economy responded positively to this increase in the consumer surplus. We find that production has grown by an extra 0.5% and that employment has increased by 0.4% as a result of the enforcement of the Competition Law. The authors are respectively Chief Economist of the NMa and senior advisor at the Office of the Chief Economist of the NMa. This paper is the background paper for the presentation with the same title at the conference “Measuring the Economic Effects of Competition Law Enforcement”, held in The Hague, 17 and 18 October 2007. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.     

How the Rapid Development of VoIP Technologies Affects Consumer Welfare and the Market

Abstract

The impact of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) growth on other telecommunication services, such as landlines and mobile telephony, has gained significant interest in Korea recently. An emerging alternative to landline telecommunications, VoIP is experiencing explosive growth in demand and is providing significant economic utility to consumers. The rapid growth of smart phones has also created a considerable amount of controversy regarding the potential impact of VoIP on the mobile phone market. This study provides quantitative estimations of consumer surplus for landline, mobile and VoIP services in the Korean telecommunications market using monthly call data from January of 2006 to June of 2009, a period when VoIP services grew rapidly. Empirical analyses are conducted to estimate consumer surplus based on the demand functions of each telecommunication service. Additional analyses are conducted on consumer surplus change as well. Policy implications for the rapid growth of VoIP and its impact on consumer surplus change are also discussed.     

The value of flower tourism on the Bokkeveld Plateau – a botanical hotspot

The Bokkeveld Plateau is situated at the interface between the Cape Floristic Region and the Succulent Karoo and has high levels of endemism and plant biodiversity. During spring, the area attracts tourists to view the wildflowers in bloom. Wildflower tourism has been suggested as a means to protect the plant biodiversity of the region. A questionnaire survey was used to estimate the value of flower tourism and to explore visitors' preferences for different attributes of their experience. The travel–cost method, conjoint modelling and direct questions were used. It was estimated that R2,35 million is spent annually in the area. According to the travel–cost analysis, the average consumer surplus was R28 per person. On average, 37 per cent of visitor enjoyment came from seeing expanses or carpets of flowers and 26 per cent from seeing the variety of flowers. The average length of stay would be reduced to 37 per cent of its original length if there were no flowers present. The conjoint analysis showed that seeing carpets of flowers contributed by far the most to the scores given to scenarios, as compared with seeing a variety of species of flowers or bulbs. Biodiversity conservation will therefore depend on marketing the biodiversity and other attributes of the area rather than relying on the visual displays that are highly weather dependent.     

中国对外反倾销措施的产业救济效果研究（1997～2007）

本文在理论机理分析的基础上,全面实证评估了我国对外反倾销措施的产业救济效果。通过选取1997～2007年全体、国有和外资企业加总的行业面板数据,搜集在此期间我国发起的所有对外反倾销案件,采用系统GMM动态面板估计方法,实证检验了措施对于行业出口、产值、就业人数、利润、企业数目以及劳动生产率的救济作用。结果发现,中国对外反倾销的产业救济效果良好,尤其明显地提高了行业利润、产值、企业数、生产率以及就业人数,但对出口影响较微弱;同时效果主要体现在行业总体和私营企业上,对国有和外资企业基本无显著影响;比较而言,行业利润和生产率的救济效果最突出,其次是产值、就业和企业数目。出口基本无显著影响。由此政策上应进一步强化和完善我国的反倾销申诉与执行机制。     

THE BURDEN OF HIV/AIDS IN THE PUBLIC HEALTHCARE SYSTEM

Given current lack of routine data, assessing the burden of HIV/AIDS on the public healthcare system is complex. This research aimed to collect a wide range of data that could be used to estimate this burden and the costs of meeting it. Data collection was undertaken by research doctors who were employed in a wide spectrum of facilities to compile information on patients' HIV-status, retrospective utilisation of services and unit costs of care. Key results indicated that the percentage of expenditure on HIV-related care was 26% across all facilities. HIV-positive patients had higher utilisation of services compared to other patient groups; the annual cost per patient was estimated to be R4,813 (2007/08 prices). Results should be interpreted in the light of the underlying population need and context-specific access barriers.     

消费者剩余理论在企业营销策略问题上的研究

文章运用微观经济学中的"消费者剩余"理论对市场营销的本质与策略进行了一些探讨,旨在说明市场营销的成功关键在于企业是否立足于创造更多的消费者剩余来制订营销的手段与策略.企业只有不断创造消费者剩余,才能最终取得营销的成功.     

中国流动性过剩与房地产市场稳定

本文在分析我国流动性现状的基础上,根据1998~2007年的年度数据进行计量分析,揭示出当前流动性过剩与我国房地产稳定间存在一定关联,这种关联主要表现为过剩的资金流向房地产市场,导致房地产市场迅速扩张,局部地区呈现出非理性的发展。本文以化解流动性过剩为出发点,分析了流动性过剩对房地产市场的影响,提出了稳定房地产市场发展的对策与建议。     

重庆农村居民收入与消费的实证分析

收入是决定居民消费需求的基本因素。文章采用1985—2007年的年度统计数据,对重庆农村居民人均年纯收入与消费支出的数据进行了协整分析,得出了两者之间存在着长期稳定均衡关系的结论,由此对收入与消费建立了误差修正模型。该模型不仅描述了收入与消费的长期均衡关系,而且也描述了收入与消费的短期波动调整关系。     

Is it worth subsidising regional repertory theatre?

Subsidies to the performing arts are usually justified by referenceto externality and public goods arguments that are hard to quantify.We suggest that subsidies to theatres may be appropriate becauseof their inability to engage in spatial price discriminationto capture consumer surplus. For one major theatre, we use audiencedata and the Clawson-Knetsch travel cost method to assess theextent of consumer surplus and find that it exceeds the levelof subsidy received from public sources. On the basis of thisexample, current subsidy levels are justifiable even withoutrecourse to traditional externality/public goods arguments.     

THE ECONOMICS OF PLASTIC BAG LEGISLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA1

In May 2003 South Africa introduced legislation intended to decrease plastic bag litter. It combined standards and price‐based economic tools in an attempt to reduce the public's demand for plastic bags. This paper analyses the short term effects of the legislation on bag demand. It also provides a background to these regulations and a theoretical overview. The assessment uses bag consumption data from four retailers, each representing a different consumer market. These are analysed, and respective price elasticities calculated. The results suggest that plastic bag demand is relatively price inelastic and imply that instruments utilising price alone, would have limited efficacy. However, the combination of standards and pricing successfully curbed plastic bag use in the short run. Further analysis suggests that the effectiveness of the legislation may be declining over time.     

The Case for Stabilizing China＇s Exchange Rate： Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion

China＇s financial conundrum arises from two sources. First, its large saving （trade） surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency. Instead, foreign currency claims （largely US dollars） build up within domestic financial institutions. Second, economists, both American and Chinese, mistakenly attribute the surpluses to an undervalued RMB. To placate the USA, the result was a gradual and predictable appreciation of the RMB against the dollar of 6 percent or more per year from July 2005 to July 2008. Together with the fall in US interest rates since mid-2007, this one- way bet in the foreign exchanges markets not only attracted hot money inflows but inhibited private capital outflows from financing China＇ s huge trade surplus. Therefore, the People＇s Bank of China had to intervene heavily to prevent the RMB from ratcheting upwards, and so became the country＇s sole international financial intermediary as official exchange reserves exploded Because of the currency mismatch, floating the RMB is neither feasible nor desirable, and a higher RMB would not reduce China＇ s trade surplus. Instead, monetary control and normal private-sector finance for the trade surplus require a return to a credibly fixed nominal RMB/USD rate similar to that which existed between 1995 and 2004. However, for any newly reset RMB/USD rate to be credible as a monetary anchor, foreign ＂China bashing＂ to get the RMB up must end. Then the stage would be set for fiscal expansion to both stimulate the economy and reduce its trade surplus.     

FOREIGN BANTU WORKERS IN SOUTH AFRICA: THEIR PRESENT POSITION IN THE ECONOMY

It is not possible to compile accurate statistics about the size, origin, distribution, earnings, remittances and similar measurable aspects of the foreign Bantu labour force in South Africa. From the foregoing discussion it will be obvious that such data are most unlikely to become available in the foreseeable future. There is, however, a growing need for reasonably reliable information concerning economic interrelationships in Southern Africa. The only way to arrive at a workable basis for informed studies of labour matters in the regional context, appears to be the one followed here. By compiling, and fully documenting, as much of the accessible and relevant data as possible into comprehensive and intrinsically consistent tables, the present article can, it is hoped, serve as a convenient starting point for further, more detailed investigations. Briefly, the principal figures derived in the foregoing may be recapitulated. The total number of foreign workers in the Republic in 1964 can be put at roughly half a million men, almost 300,000 (59 per cent.) of them in mining, about 140,000 (29 per cent.) in agriculture, and about 60,000 (12 per cent.) in other employment. In these sectors, they constitute roughly 53, 14, and under 4 per cent. respectively of all Bantu employed there. Approximately 45 per cent. of all foreign workers come from the former High Commission Territories (Basotho accounting for about 60 per cent of this group), about 30 per cent. from Moçambique, 18 per cent. from Rhodesia, Zambia and Malawi together, and the remaining 7 per cent. from South West Africa, Angola, Tanzania and other territories. The total annual earnings of foreigners can be put at R133.4 million (R82.3 million cash and R51.1 million in kind), out of which cash and goods to a total value of R23.9 million (R17.7 million cash and R6.2 million worth of goods) are estimated to be remitted to the countries of origin. About 40 per cent. of the total population of Southern Africa, more than 80 per cent. of its White inhabitants, and approximately two-thirds of the region's wage-earning opportunities for Bantu are to be found in the Republic. Apart from the remittances of migrant workers, the labour supplying countries derive substantial benefits, though of course to a varying degree, from the movement of their nationals to the Republic. These are: 1. the absorption of surplus population into the Bantu groups of the Republic; 2. the fact that at any given moment, a large number of people are living off the resources of another country instead of pressing on inadequate resources at home; 3. the financial benefits from the administrative activities of the recruiting organizations; and 4. the instruction in various subjects imparted to employees on the mines and elsewhere, and generally the knowledge and skills brought back by migrants to their home countries. (The social and economic drawbacks of the migrant labour system cannot be ignored but an evaluation of this system falls outside the scope of this study. It must be recognized that intra-regional labour movements are inextricably bound up with the economic life of Southern Africa. It can, rightly, be pointed out that the abundant supply of foreigners to mining and agriculture in the Republic tends to depress the earnings of indigenous Bantu in these sectors. It is, however, prima facie, open to serious doubt whether drastic reductions in the number of foreign workers is the best way to promote the economic well-being of the local Bantu population. From the standpoint of the labour exporting countries, it is naturally regrettable that their nationals are mostly confined to the less well paying sectors of the South African economy. On the other hand, and in view of the undeveloped state of their economies, they have every reason to welcome such employment opportunities as there may be in the Republic. The newly independent states of the region are earnestly striving to develop their potentialities. By supplying (or releasing) scarce resources, labour migration to the Republic contributes materially, and in the case of Lesotho and Botswana even decisively, towards the attainment of higher levels of living throughout the region. The Republic's neighbours would suffer most if political passion or animosity towards South Africa were to disrupt the present network of the intra-regional flow of labour.     

BEHAVIOURAL RESPONSE TO PLASTIC BAG LEGISLATION IN BOTSWANA

This paper investigates the use of charges and standards in dealing with a common externality, plastic litter from shopping bags in Botswana. The country passed a plastic bag legislation (effective 2007) to curb the plastic bag demand. Uniquely, the act does not stipulate the amount that the retailers had to charge for plastic bags, they, independently from one another, set different prices. We assessed the environmental effectiveness and efficiency of the plastic bag legislation by analysing consumers' sensitivity to the improvement of the plastic bag and related price charges. The introduction of the plastic bag legislation led to a significant decline in the consumption of plastic bags per 1,000 Botswana pulas of shopping. The partial success of the charges levied in Botswana was due to the constantly high prices of the bags.     

基于计量经济学模型的福建省旅游收入影响因素分析

旅游业收入在整个福建省国民经济收入中占据越来越重要的地位。基于计量经济学模型,收集了2007—2017年间福建省旅游相关数据,并以福建省国内旅游收入为因变量,选取福建省接待国内旅游人数、来自国内游客人均消费、福建省居民消费价格指数、福建省公路通车里程和A级景区个数作为相应解释变量进行多元线性回归,继而检验参数,并进行逐步回归修正,最后得出结论:福建省接待的国内旅游人数和国内人均消费以及福建省居民消费价格指数是影响福建省国内旅游收入最主要的因素,并基于此提出福建省提高旅游收入的建议措施。     

Product design in monopolistic competition

We consider a model of monopolistic competition where producers can manipulate an elasticity parameter at an early stage. We interpret this as a choice of product specialization. Lower marginal costs of production lead to more generic products in all equilibria, which lead to fewer varieties under free-entry. Entry of a new firm increases overall specialization and increases prices, that is, the environment exhibits price-increasing competition. The loss of consumer surplus due to higher prices and lower consumption is compensated by the value of additional variety, hence entry also increases consumer surplus. Therefore, price-increasing competition need not be anticompetitive under endogenous specialization.     

Cereal producers and the structural adjustment programme (SAP) in Ghana: A welfare analysis of the first decade of SAP

Small-scale food producers in Ghana produce about 90 per cent of the food in the country. Behaviourial patterns characteristic of these semi-commercial producers are complex, making it hard for policy makers to predict the consequences of policies on them. This study analyses the effects of the Structural Adjustment Programme on cereal producers in Ghana. A system of demand and supply equations was employed in a simulation analysis performed under three different scenarios to observe the aftermath of price increases; measure the impact of devaluation of the cedi; and gauge the effect of price increases and devaluation. The results show that cereal producers gain but consumers lose in terms of producer and consumer surplus. There is a net welfare loss as a result of the SAP.     

VALUING BLUE FLAG STATUS AND ESTUARINE WATER QUALITY IN MARGATE,SOUTH AFRICA1

This study estimates the costs associated with reduced water quality and withdrawal of Blue Flag status in Margate, Kwazulu‐Natal, based on travel costs and contingent behaviour (reported change in visits contingent on a hypothetical scenario). Costs associated with hypothetical loss of Blue Flag status (based on reduced visits) range between R17 and R25 million per annum. Interestingly, Blue Flag status was withdrawn shortly after completion of the survey, owing to reduced water quality. This study therefore provides an estimate of the associated welfare losses, and of the benefits of actions to improve water quality and restore Blue Flag status.     

中国国际收支结构演变:特征、根源与调整对策

1982年以来,中国国际收支结构呈现明显的阶段性特征:从1982年到1993年中国国际收支基本平衡;从1994年到2007年,我国国际收支平衡结构发生逆转,经常账户和资本账户保持了长达13年(1998年除外)的持续"双顺差"。一个发展中的大国在十多年较长时期内持续保持双顺差乃至"三顺差",无论从经济理论还是从国际经验看都属于特殊现象。为此,本文以中国改革开放30年来不断深入参与国际分工体系的实践为切入点,着重考察中国国际收支结构变动的事实表现、特殊属性、发生根源和调整对策。     

Competition between branded and nonbranded firms and its impact on welfare

We examine a quantity competition among branded and nonbranded firms. The market comprises two consumer segments: one purchases only branded products (the high-end market), while the other segment's consumers purchase less expensive products (the low-end market). When branded firms take actions sequentially, we show that the branded leader has an incentive to restrict its quantity to avoid entering the low-end market. As the follower recognizes this incentive, it can restrict the leader by implementing a quantity constraint, which is affected by the number of nonbranded firms. We find that both the branded leader and follower could benefit from the nonbranded firms and that the leader prefers to have more nonbranded firms in the market than the follower does. Furthermore, we show that the free entry of nonbranded firms could negatively affect total surplus as well as consumer surplus even without any costs, because of the premium pricing of branded products.