Comparison of Bank Profitability in China and the USA

This paper examines and compares the profitability of banks in the USA and China. The USA has the largest market‐based banking system and the financial system of China is still bank‐based. Our analysis indicates that in terms of profitability, banks in China outperformed those in the USA during our study period (2008–2014). Real estate loans had an adverse effect on US bank profitability during the financial crisis and no effect after the crisis but consistently improved the profitability of Chinese banks. Interest margins have no effect on US bank profitability but a consistently positive effect on Chinese banks, confirming that China is a traditional bank‐based economy. Interbank loans have a positive and significant effect on Chinese bank profitability, while interbank domestic loans have a negative effect on US bank profitability. Finally, size had a positive effect on US banks after the financial crisis period, confirming the scale economies of large US banks, but a negative effect on Chinese banks, indicating diseconomies of scale.     

THE EFFECT OF STRESSED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON SYSTEMIC RISK WITHIN THE SOUTH AFRICAN BANKING SECTOR

The credit crisis resulted in increases in credit, market and operational risk, but it may also have precipitated a surge in systemic risk. Measuring systemic risk as the price of insurance against distressed losses in the South African banking sector, this article attempts to determine whether the financial crisis has in fact resulted in an increase in systemic risk. Using probabilities of default and asset return correlations as systemic risk indicators, it is found that the financial crisis has indeed increased systemic risk in South Africa. The impact was, however, less severe than that experienced in other large international banks.     

Responding to financial crisis: Bank credit expansion with Chinese characteristics

China has sustained a high rate of economic growth even after the outbreak of global financial crisis around 2008 and 2009. Much of the growth stemmed from consistently high levels of lending after this period. Using a unique large dataset from all banking institutions in 90 counties across 14 provinces of China from 2005 to 2013, this paper examines the patterns of credit expansion by Chinese banks. Our study results reveal a clear pattern of counter-cyclical credit expansion by Chinese banks in response to the outbreak of global financial crisis. We find that ownership structure and bank governance do impact on bank lending: the large state-owned banks have responded more to political pressure to lend while the joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have been more profit oriented. The latter had increased their lending more to increase their presence at the county markets. Overall, compared with county-based small banks, cross-regional banks have expanded their lending much more aggressively. Differences in liquidity and deposit growth, risk management strategies, or legal enforcement cannot explain these results.     

存款准备金率调整对商业银行流动性创造的影响研究——基于互联网金融冲击的情境

商业银行的超额准备金与法定存款准备金都存放在中央银行的特定账户上。二者之间此消彼长的关系,决定了中央银行可以依托调节存款准备金率来影响商业银行的流动性创造行为。本文着眼于存款准备金率政策实施的动态过程,通过整理2011—2018年20家商业银行的非平衡面板数据,采用系统广义矩估计(System-GMM)方法进行动态面板回归模型估计,考察以P2P为代表的互联网金融快速发展对大型国有银行与中小银行流动性创造的冲击与影响,实证研究证实存款准备金率对我国商业银行的流动性创造行为会产生显著影响。互联网金融的发展虽然对不同银行流动性创造水平的抑制存在一定的异质性差异,但是对银行总体流动性创造能力具有一定的抑制作用,因此会在一定程度上削弱存款准备金率政策作用效果。     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

Why Do Property‐Liability Insurers Destroy Liquidity? Evidence from South Africa

This paper examines liquidity creation behaviour in the property‐liability insurance market in South Africa. Using annual data on 76 insurers from 2007 to 2014, the paper employs the three‐stage approach to estimate liquidity creation. The results suggest that property‐liability insurers are characterised by liquidity destruction by transforming liquid assets in cash and investable securities into illiquid reserves liabilities. The findings also indicate that the R1.32 billion in liquid assets were transformed into illiquid reserves liabilities in 2014, an increase from the R700 million liquidity de‐created in 2007. The increases were mainly driven by large insurers which accounted for about 70% liquidity de‐created. The results of panel regression analysis provide evidence in support of the “risk‐absorption” hypothesis which argues that high levels of capital increases liquidity creation. In addition, size, leverage and reinsurance were also identified as the firm‐level factors that explain liquidity creation. The policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Bank financial structure in pre-crisis East and Southeast Asia

Seeking evidence on the role of bank governance in the 1997 crisis, we study financial structure and bank performance from 1987 to 1997. Financial performance ratios (capital adequacy, liquidity, profitability, and loan preference) are regressed on structural variables (bank assets, net income, administrative expenses, and time), focusing on banks’ management efficiency and financial performance. During financial liberalization, loan-preference ratios were higher, perhaps signaling more risk; so were capital-adequacy ratios. Capital adequacy falls, then rises as management size increases; profitability behaves oppositely, indicating diminishing returns. Thailand’s, Korea’s and Indonesia’s banks show stronger lending preference but weaker profitability; possible harbingers of crisis.     

How do leverage ratios affect bank share performance during financial crises: The Japanese experience of the late 1990s

This study investigates the relationship between leverage ratios and bank share performance for a sample of Japanese banks during the period of financial crisis in the late 1990s. We differentiate between two types of leverage ratios: book leverage and market leverage. We show that market leverage instead of book leverage observed before the crisis has statistically and economically significant predictive power for the cross-sectional variation in bank performance during the crisis, even after controlling for a variety of other indicators reflecting bank’s characteristics and financial conditions. We also find that banks with lower market leverage ratios were affected more adversely by the failure announcements of large financial institutions during the crisis. The results are robust across alternative model specifications, statistical methodologies, lengths of sample intervals, and measures of bank share performance during the crisis. Our results therefore have important implications for regulators in identifying distressed banks that are vulnerable to the deterioration in conditions of the financial system.     

Déjà Vu: The Effect of Executives and Directors with Prior Banking Crisis Experience on Bank Outcomes around the Global Financial Crisis

We investigate the effect of executives and directors with prior banking crisis experience on bank outcomes around the global financial crisis (GFC). Executives and directors with previous experience leading banks through a bank crisis may have been uniquely able to understand the risks, recognize the warnings signs early, and thus respond more effectively to the GFC. Controlling for other executive, director, and bank‐level characteristics, we examine whether bank performance, risk taking, and accounting quality in the period immediately before and during the GFC are affected by having executives or directors who previously served as bank executives or directors during the 1980s/1990s banking crisis (80s/90s crisis). Overall, we find that banks led by these crisis‐experienced executives and directors exhibit stronger performance, lower risk taking, and higher accounting quality in the period around the GFC. These effects are strongest among bank leaders for whom the 80s/90s crisis was most salient. Results are robust to propensity‐matched samples and other analyses performed to rule out alternative explanations. Our results suggest these individuals were able to learn from prior crisis experience.     

Deterioration of Firm Balance Sheet and Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel Data on Thai Firms*

Using firm‐level data, the present paper investigates whether, and to what extent, firm balance sheet problems mattered for investment over the period 1992–2002. Various categories of firms are compared, with firms grouped according to their a priori degree of liquidity constraint. Firms are also divided into pre‐crisis and post‐crisis periods to examine the impact of the financial crisis on firms’ investments. The results support the existence of the balance sheet channel and suggest that Thai firms faced greater liquidity constraints following the financial crisis. Small firms and non‐bond‐issuing firms are found to have been more adversely affected by the crisis than large firms and bond‐issuing firms.     

Competitiveness and Efficiency of the Banking Sector and Economic Growth in Egypt

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of financial reforms on competitiveness and production efficiency of the banking sector, as well as the short‐term and long‐term impact on economic growth, in Egypt during 1992–2007. The results suggest that the reforms have a positive and significant effect on competitiveness and production efficiency. Also, the evidence shows that state‐owned banks are generally less competitive than private banks and foreign banks are less competitive than domestic banks. The average x‐inefficiency of Egyptian banks is around 30 per cent, which is comparable to those reported for other African countries. Finally, there is evidence to suggest a significant relationship between financial bank productive efficiency and economic growth in the short run but not in the long run. Overall, the results support the argument for continuing the financial sector reform programme in Egypt.     

Four‐G Episode and the elevated risks

Complacency and a false perception that markets will correct imbalances during two decades of ‘Great Moderation’ led to ‘Global Imbalances’. The low interest rates and a lack of proper oversight, combined with a perception that housing prices will always move north, brought the sub‐prime crisis in the USA and the subsequent ‘Global Financial Crisis’ and European crisis. The Quantitative Easing policy in advanced economies (AE) created an even more permissive global liquidity. The externality affecting emerging markets (EM) took the form of massive capital inflows, first channelled through banks where the global banks‐mostly headquartered in Europe‐played a significant role and then through capital market with fund managers being the protagonist. The augmented liquidity spurred growth in EM but also elevated the risk of financial instability. Capital flows reversal, slower growth and less benign external conditions have put EM in a quandary. The uncertainty is heightened by a non‐synchronised monetary policy in AE (‘Great Divergence’). To the extent that standard policies have become ineffective, and to defend from externality caused by AE's unilateral policy (financial nationalism), it is argued that EM can put a damper on the dangerous component of capital inflows. As part of macroprudential policy, such a measure is equivalent with discouraging risky behaviour to prevent financial instability and worsening income inequality.     

Were Information Intermediaries Sensitive to the Financial Statement‐Based Leading Indicators of Bank Distress Prior to the Financial Crisis?

In this paper, we address two questions that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial/banking crisis. First, did the financial statements of bank holding companies provide an early warning of their impending distress? Second, were the actions of four key financial intermediaries (short sellers, equity analysts, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and auditors) sensitive to the information in the banks’ financial statements about their increased risk and potential distress? We find a significant cross‐sectional association between banks’ 2006 Q4 financial information and bank failures over 2008–2010, suggesting that the financial statements reflected at least some of the increased risk of bank distress in advance. The mean abnormal short interest in our sample of banks increased from 0.66 percent in March 2005 to 2.4 percent in March 2007 and the association between short interest and leading financial statement indicators also increased. In contrast, we observe neither a meaningful change in analysts’ recommendations, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and audit fees nor an increased sensitivity of these actions to financial indicators of bank distress over this time period. Our results suggest that actions of short sellers likely provided an early warning of the banks’ upcoming distress prior to the 2008 financial crisis.     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

International banking and transmission of the 1931 financial crisis

In May to July 1931, a series of financial panics shook central Europe before spreading to the rest of the world. This article explores the role of cross‐border banking linkages in propagating the central European crisis to Britain and the US. Using archival bank‐level data, the article documents US and British banks’ exposure to central European frozen credits in 1931. Central European lending was mostly done by large and diversified commercial banks in the US and by small and geographically specialized merchant banks/acceptance houses in Britain. Differences in the organization of international bank lending explain why the central European crisis disturbed few US banks but endangered many British financial institutions.     

How will financial liberalization change the Chinese economy? Lessons from middle-income countries

This study projects the impact of financial liberalization in China by drawing on the experiences of 60 middle-income economies over a period of four decades. Our results suggest that comprehensive financial reform could increase GDP growth per capita by up to 1.4% points and raise the real bank lending rate by up to 5.1% points. Perhaps the most unexpected result is a massive increase in net capital inflows by up to 20.1% of GDP, which could plant seeds for financial risks later. The probability of a currency crisis could increase by up to 21.7% points, but the probability of a banking crisis may rise or fall, depending on the quality of bank supervision. We also find different policy impacts of different financial reform measures. Bank ownership reform and regulatory reform are critical in supporting economic growth and financial stability. These findings offer important policy implications on how to derive maximum benefit from financial reforms while effectively mitigating potential risks.     

South African Exporters and the Global Crisis: Intensive Margin Shock,Extensive Margin Hangover

This paper examines how changes at the intensive (established exporters exporting existing products to established markets) and the extensive (new exporters, products or markets) margins contribute to South African export growth and how this was affected by the global financial crisis. We find that the intensive margin is the more important contributor to export growth, contributing more than three quarters of observed growth. The intensive margin contracted significantly during the global financial crisis of 2009 but bounced back to pre‐crisis levels quickly. However, the impacts on the extensive margin persisted after the crisis with lower levels of entry of firms, new products and new destinations. The short‐term impact of the crisis was mitigated by the concentration of South African exports among larger, more productive super‐exporters. However, the fall in entry of new firms, products and destinations as a result of the crisis may mean that this concentration persists, and, at least over the next few years, South Africa does not diversify and broaden its exports.     

后危机时代我国中小银行的流动性风险管理

2009年下半年全球经济逐步渡过金融危机的恐慌而进入"后危机时代",然而,世界经济仍处在多种不确定和不稳定因素的困扰之下。各个国家经济刺激计划带来的通货膨胀问题就是困扰之一。为此,进入2010年以后,我国银行业存款准备金率连续上调,同时,利率也进入到加息通道,存款类金融机构尤其是中小商业银行的流动性日益趋紧,流动性风险管理难度在不断加大。     

Banking crisis and productivity of borrowing firms: Evidence from Japan

We investigate the effects of bank distress on the productivity of borrowing firms by using data on listed companies in the Japanese manufacturing industry during the 1990s. We find that deterioration in the financial health of banks, which is measured by a decline in the capital-asset ratio, decreased the productivity of their borrowers during the period of the severe financial crisis (FY1997–1998). Our finding empirically confirms the theoretical view that an increase in financial friction negatively affects the productivity of the corporate sector.     

Bank profitability and the bank lending channel: Evidence from China

This paper uses bank-level data to investigate whether the impact of monetary policy on bank lending depends on the characteristics of Chinese banks during the period 1985–2007. We find that the impact of monetary policy on lending is weaker for larger banks and banks with lower levels of liquidity, and that banks’ responses to monetary policy do not necessarily vary according to their capital. Further, to identify the bank lending channel more clearly, we test whether the impact of monetary policy varies according to profitability. The results show that profitable banks tend to be less sensitive to monetary policy, because when tight monetary policy leads to a fall in deposits, less profitable banks face a higher cost of capital.