Short Selling and Firm Operating Performance

While it is well known that short selling predicts future negative stock price performance, it has not been established whether short selling predicts future negative operating performance. We find that firms in the top decile of increases in short interest (an increase of about four percentage points) experience a 21% subsequent decline in operating performance relative to matched control firms. The greater the increase in short interest, the larger the decline in operating performance. The results are robust to alternative performance measures and to sample splits based on firm size. These results suggest that short interest may reflect private information about firm fundamentals rather than other factors that may drive stock price changes.     

Intraday Price Discovery in the DJIA Index Markets

Abstract:  This paper explores the dynamics of price discovery between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index and its three derivative products: the DIAMOND exchange-traded fund (ETF), the floor-traded regular futures, and the electronically traded mini futures. Even though the American Stock Exchange is the primary listing exchange for the ETF, the analysis indicates that the electronically traded ETF on the Archipelago (ArcaEx) electronic communications network dominates the price discovery process for DIAMOND shares. The E-mini futures contribute the most to price discovery, followed by the ArcaEx DIAMOND. The DJIA index and regular futures contribute least to price discovery. The analysis is repeated using the derivatives of the S&P 500 index as a robustness check. The results indicate that multi-market trading ensures greater pricing efficiency. Informed traders favor electronic trading because of immediate and anonymous trade execution.     

Interaction Between Short Selling and Potential Insider Selling in the IPO Aftermarket

We document the determinants of short interest in newly public firms during the lockup period and how short interest influences the valuation effects surrounding lockup expiration. We find that the short interest is larger for stocks that have more downward price potential at lockup expiration. We also find that the stocks that are subjected to larger short positions experience more pronounced negative valuation effects upon lockup expiration. Finally, we find that the stocks with a larger short interest position just after lockup expiration experience weaker returns during the following the six-month period.     

Short Selling Pressure,Stock Price Behavior,and Management Forecast Precision: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Using a natural experiment (Regulation SHO), we show that short selling pressure and consequent stock price behavior have a causal effect on managers’ voluntary disclosure choices. Specifically, we find that managers respond to a positive exogenous shock to short selling pressure and price sensitivity to bad news by reducing the precision of bad news forecasts. This finding on management forecasts appears to be generalizable to other corporate disclosures. In particular, we find that, in response to increased short selling pressure, managers also reduce the readability (or increase the fuzziness) of bad news annual reports. Overall, our results suggest that maintaining the current level of stock prices is an important consideration in managers’ strategic disclosure decisions.     

Intraday Stock Price Reactions to Interim-Quarter versus Fourth-Quarter Earnings Announcements

This study investigates intraday patterns of quarterly return-earnings relations. We find that fourth quarter announcements exhibit a lower earnings response coefficient but a more rapid adjustment to new equilibrium levels of prices and a higher R2 than interim quarter announcements. While prior short event window studies document that interim quarter earnings have greater explanatory power than fourth quarter earnings or annual earnings, our analysis indicates that the prior results may be driven by the use of two-day event window that is much wider than what it takes for the market to adjust to fourth quarter announcements.     

卖空威胁、公司融资扩张战略与违规行为

利用中国推出融资融券业务的准自然实验机会,本文以2010—2016年中国A股上市公司为样本,使用双重差分模型研究放松卖空限制对企业违规行为的影响。研究发现,融券业务允许市场中的知情投资者挖掘企业负面信息进行卖空,形成有效的卖空威胁,从而震慑企业,显著降低其发生违规行为的概率。具体而言,卖空交易行为跟企业违规行为的严重程度正相关;卖空交易行为能显著降低企业的超额收益率;当企业有进一步融资需求或并购扩张战略需求时,卖空威胁对企业的震慑作用更为显著。研究表明,融券业务带来的卖空威胁是企业外部监管的重要机制。     

Short Selling and the Weekend Effect for NYSE Securities

Using short-sale transactions data, we examine the relation between short selling and the weekend effect. We do not find that short selling is more abundant on Monday than on Friday, even for stocks that have higher Friday returns. We find that short sellers execute more short-sale volume during the middle of the week, and that the positive correlation between short selling and returns on Monday is greater, on average, than the correlation on the other days of the week. Our results are robust to subsamples of stocks with larger weekend effects and stocks that do not have listed options.     

Short Selling and Earnings Management: A Controlled Experiment

During 2005 to 2007, the SEC ordered a pilot program in which one‐third of the Russell 3000 index were arbitrarily chosen as pilot stocks and exempted from short‐sale price tests. Pilot firms’ discretionary accruals and likelihood of marginally beating earnings targets decrease during this period, and revert to pre‐experiment levels when the program ends. After the program starts, pilot firms are more likely to be caught for fraud initiated before the program, and their stock returns better incorporate earnings information. These results indicate that short selling, or its prospect, curbs earnings management, helps detect fraud, and improves price efficiency.     

Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets

The market for U.S. equity indexes presently comprises floor‐traded index futures contracts, exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), electronically traded, small‐denomination futures contracts (E‐minis), and sector ETFs that decompose the S&P 500 index into component industry portfolios. This paper empirically investigates price discovery in this environment. For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq‐100 indexes, most of the price discovery occurs in the E‐mini market. For the S&P 400 MidCap index, price discovery is shared between the regular futures contract and the ETF. The S&P 500 ETF contributes markedly to price discovery in the sector ETFs, but there are only minor effects in the reverse direction.     

证券市场中卖空交易机制基本功能研究

本文通过利用境外实证研究结果和境外市场的数据进行实证这两种方式对国外证券市场中卖空交易机制的基本功能进行深入的研究.研究结果表明,证券市场中的卖空交易机制能发挥稳定市场、价格发现和提供流动性的功能,但卖空机制的宏观调控功能的实际效果并不理想.     

Intraday Price Change and Trading Volume Relations in the Stock and Stock Option Markets

This study investigates intraday relations between price changes and trading volume of options and stocks for a sample of firms whose options traded on the CBOE during the first quarter of 1986. After purging the price change series of the effects of bid/ask spreads, multivariate time-series analysis is used to estimate the lead/lag relation between the price changes in the option and stock markets. The results indicate that price changes in the stock market lead the option market by as much as fifteen minutes. The analysis of trading volume indicates that the stock market lead may be even longer.     

A Note on International Portfolio Diversification with Short Selling

In this paper, the diversification benefits of using stock index futures are examined. Empirical evidence shows that traditional diversification in international equity markets does not produce a risk adjusted performance superior to the US market. An explanation for this result is that restrictions on short selling prohibit the best allocation of resources when overseas stock markets are riskier and have worse returns. However, when such restrictions are eased for short selling in index futures markets, investors are enabled to both allocate their investments more efficiently and to construct a superior portfolio.     

融券对我国股票价格的影响

本文通过测量我国股票价格在实行融券前后的显著变化,并比较回报率横截面分布特征的变化来检验两种理论假说:1)融券使股价降低;2)投资者意见分歧加大会导致股价更大程度下跌。研究结果支持这些假说,并表明我国股市投资者预期到了融券对股价的负面影响,股价在融券宣告日前后就开始向下调整。对融券余量数据的分析显示,融券活动在起初并不活跃,导致股价在此期间下跌的主要原因是市场对融券预期的负面信息效应。     

内部人抛售、信息环境与股价崩盘

我国自2006年起允许内部人在公开市场交易公司股票,本文分析了其后内部人的抛售行为对股价崩盘风险的作用机理。本文的研究结果表明,内部人中的大股东抛售行为确实引发了股价崩盘,但是股价崩盘并非由于内部人隐藏了坏消息,而是由于大股东的抛售行为加大了与外部投资者之间的利益分离,大幅增加了不确定性,导致外部投资者压低股价寻求风险补偿所致。由内部人抛售引发的不确定性上升,并不能被机构投资者和分析师在基本面信息的搜集过程中预知,相反,一致预期的打破和机构投资者应对不确定性上升的持股调整行为反而加大了股价的崩盘风险。本文的研究对加强内部人交易行为监管,促进资本市场稳定发展具有一定的意义。     

Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Intraday Stock Price Variability Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

This study investigates the relationship between the dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts and stock price variability around quarterly earnings announcements. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the empirical analysis shows that stock price variability at the time of earnings announcements is positively related to the degree of analysts' predisclosure earnings forecast dispersion. Additionally, firms with high levels of forecast dispersion exhibit significant increases in price variability for longer periods prior to and following earnings announcements than do firms with low levels of forecast dispersion. These results suggest that there is information about the earnings announcement that becomes available to at least a subset of investors prior to the earnings release and that market participants take different amounts of time to process the information conveyed by the earnings announcement.     

卖空与创新:A股公司融券试点的证据

本文依托中国A股市场2010年开始实施的融券试点,在通过多时点双重差分和倾向得分匹配等计量方法控制内生性的基础上,实证检验了卖空对上市公司创新行为的促进作用.结果 表明:(1)加入融券标的后,卖空公司的创新数量和创新质量都有显著提高;(2)对于金融市场欠发达、治理水平较差的公司,这种作用更明显;(3)在使用融券余额作为卖空势力的测度并用ETF基金持股比例作为工具变量进一步控制内生性以后,以上结论仍然成立.卖空有助于降低创新企业的信息不对称性和加强对经理人的薪酬激励,进而促进了企业的创新.因此,取消卖空限制将有助于中国企业的创新和资本市场的健康稳定发展.     

Prospects: A Missing Piece of Current Selling Price Reporting

This article seeks to provide insights about a conceptual objection to current selling price reporting: that, in its determination of asset amounts, such reporting ignores the reporting entity's prospects (potential, promise, outlook) for achievement of possession of or of access to consumer general purchasing power beyond its achievement to date of such possession or access. The article argues that financial reports should provide (a) information that is helpful to the users to evaluate the prospects of the reporting entity, including financial statement information based on current selling price reporting, (b) a section of the income statement presenting amounts spent during the reporting period to enhance the reporting entity's prospects, and (c) various kinds of supplementary information to aid the evaluations, such as the kinds discussed in this article.