新企业会计制度执行情况探讨

本文选取了2001年发布的新《企业会计制度》的四个方面(包括资产盘点、存货计价方法和固定资产折旧方法、资产减值准备、会计调整事项)作为研究对象,通过对新企业会计制度执行情况的调查和统计分析,揭示了中国企业执行新制度时的一些行为倾向。     

Export surges

How can developing countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, we examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least 7 years. We find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation, which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. We examine why the exchange rate is important in developing countries and find that the depreciation is associated with a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation stimulates entry into new export products and new markets. These new exports are important, accounting for over 40% of export growth on average during the surge in developing countries. We argue that a large real depreciation induces firms to expand the product and market space for exports.     

固定资产折旧方法的比较分析

影响固定资产折旧的因素主要表现为折旧基数、折旧年限、预计净残值以及折旧方法的选择。企业在选择折旧方法时,要根据企业自身的特点,按照国家政策的相关规定,选择恰当的折旧方法,以适应企业发展的需要。     

Depreciated Depreciation Methods? Alternatives to Sraffa’s Take on Fixed Capital

This article discusses the treatment of fixed capital in the classical theory of price. Sraffa uses non-linear depreciation of ‘physical’ capital that equalizes all annual profit rates individually, but violates the proportionality of monetary machine value reduction and physical use-up on an annual basis. One alternative is to apply simple linear depreciation that has equal annual fixed capital costs. The key for consistency is that the internal rate of return on fixed capital investments throughout the fixed asset lifetime must be equated with the normal profit rate. A second alternative is to use ‘monetary’ capital, where the ‘correct’ amortization charges depend on the ability of the accumulated depreciation fund to earn interest. Among these valid alternative methods are the original proposals of Marx and Torrens, which were dismissed falsely and prematurely by Neo-Ricardian economists. These alternatives are shown here to imply fundamentally different prices of production. For all methods, the formulas for deriving amortization charges and fixed capital prices of all vintages are derived. The article also illustrates how the system of Sraffian price equations can be modified to incorporate these methods.     

中国金融资产结构演进:1991—2007

1996年本文第一作者曾分析了以间接融资为主的中国金融资产结构给经济带来的一系列问题。经过十余年的金融改革,中国的金融资产结构是否有所改善?目前中国的金融资产结构是否能适应并促进中国经济的发展?本文以中国货币市场和资本市场发展为主线,在重新度量中国金融资产总量的基础上,对以上问题进行了讨论。本文研究表明,在金融改革过程中,中国金融资产结构有了明显改善,但也产生了一些新问题,需要继续完善货币市场和资本市场,以促进金融资产结构调整。未来十年,我国金融市场发展的最佳路径是市场的双向开放。     

Government‐spending multipliers and the zero lower bound in an open economy

This paper assesses the size of the government‐spending multiplier in an open economy when the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate is binding. In a theoretical framework, in a closed economy, other authors have shown that when the nominal interest rate is binding the government‐spending multiplier can be very large (close to four). Their theory helps illuminate the government‐spending multiplier in the ZLB, but it is difficult to match that theory with the data. We argue that, in an open economy, another channel exists for the crowding‐out effect via the real exchange rate. For an open economy, the government‐spending multiplier is not large owing to the appreciation of the real exchange rate, induced by the appreciation of aggregate demand that follows the increases in government spending. To test the robustness of our open economic model, we conduct the same analysis in a corresponding closed economy model. The result from our closed economy model confirms the result obtained in the other work. Our theoretical results are consistent with the results obtained in the empirical literature, which uses the vector autoregressive method and the structural vector autoregressive approach to measure the impact of government‐spending shock on the real gross domestic product and revealed that the government‐spending multiplier tends to be lower in open economy.     

完善双倍余额递减法计提折旧方法之我见

随着新《企业会计准则》的颁布实施以及新《企业所得税法》的实施,双倍余额递减法在固定资产计提折旧应用上越来越广泛,计提折旧公式存在的缺陷也将日益显现。所以,对《企业会计准则讲解》中双倍余额递减法计提折旧公式进行完善非常必要。     

International Bank Portfolios: Short‐ and Long‐Run Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions

International bank portfolios constitute a large component of international country portfolios. Yet, banks' response to international macroeconomic conditions remains largely unexplored. We use a novel dataset on banks' international portfolios to answer three questions. First, what are the long‐run determinants of banks' international portfolios? Second, how do banks' international portfolios adjust to short‐run macroeconomic developments? Third, does the speed of adjustment change with the degree of financial integration? We find that, in the long‐run, market size has a positive impact on foreign assets and liabilities. An increase in the interest differential between the home and the foreign economy lowers foreign assets and increases foreign liabilities. Foreign trade has a positive impact on international bank portfolios, which is independent from the effect of other macroeconomic variables. Short‐run dynamics show heterogeneity across countries, but these dynamics can partly be explained with gravity‐type variables.     

Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers

We analyse implications of financial sector dynamics for fiscal expenditure multipliers in recessionary conditions. A new stock-flow consistent model is developed in which a financial sector with four financial instruments is integrated with the real sector. The transmission of policy innovations occurs through balance sheet effects. Higher government expenditure increases aggregate demand in the economy. This reduces the perceived probability of default on financial institutions’ loans, increases asset valuations, and leads financial institutions to reduce interest rate spreads. Expectations of higher future wealth and a reduction in credit constraints supports consumption growth. Stronger balance sheets across institutions and lower interest rates increase investment. The interaction between growth and balance sheet valuations creates financial accelerator effects though its impact on financial sector risk-taking. Inflows of foreign savings can increase the multiplier further than would be the case in a closed economy constrained by domestic savings. The results show that fully modelling interactions between real and financial sectors generates fiscal multipliers higher than have been found for South Africa in other types of model.     

我国固定资产投资对经济增长影响的实证分析

我国处于发展中国家行列这一阶段特征决定着投资在很大程度上推动着经济的持续发展,文章主要分析全社会固定资产投资对GDP增长的促进作用,通过1993—2012年固定资产投资增长和国内生产总值增长的数据进行计量分析得出结论：固定资产投资增长对GDP增长有显著促进作用;随着经济体制改革的深入与政府职能的转变,减缓固定资产投资增长速度和优化投资结构以进一步提高投资效益已刻不容缓。     

Impact of foreign prices and interest rates on canadian economy under alternative monetary and exchange rate regimes

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of U.S. short- and long-term monetary policy under both flexible and managed floating systems, using the new CANDIDE Model 2.0. We have also examined the role of domestic monetary policy in the Canadian economy under both fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. The following are some of the important findings of our study:

1. Our results support the traditional view that under the fixed exchange rate regime, monetary authorities cannot successfully pursue an independent monetary policy from its trading partners — an effort to increase money supply will be almost offset by increases in the balance of payments deficit. In contrast, in the flexible exchange rate regime, monetary policy is more effective in producing an increased growth in output and employment. However the increased output growth comes at the cost of higher prices induced by increased wages and a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
2. Our results suggest that the impact of U.S. interest rates on investment, GNE, employment, productivity, and government debt is less severe in a pure floating exchange rate regime, compared to the managed floating system. However, the impact of U.S. interest rate policy on the Canadian inflation rate is worse in the case of flexible exchange rate regime. Even though real income and inflation are less favourable in both cases, our results indicate a trade-off between output growth and inflation.
3. Our results imply that under a pure floating monetary authorities can determine the long-run rate of inflation in Canada independent of others. However, the United States and Canadian economies are interrelated during the adjustment process, even under the flexible exchange rates, through the terms of trade and the wage-price spiral channels.

     

Capital income taxation,depreciation allowances and economic growth: A perfect-foresight general equilibrium model

Conclusions The results indicated in Table 1 show that incomplete depreciation allowances reinforce the distortions in the equilibrium growth path brought about by an ideal capital income tax. A reduction in the deductible share of economic depreciation, like an increase in the tax rate, raises the current level of consumption, but reduces the steady state levels of consumption and capital per efficiency unit of labour.The reason for these distortions is that the tax law is able to drive wedges both between the rate of time preference and the market rate of interest, and between the latter and the marginal productivity of capital. The first wedge is created through capital income taxation as such and its size is directly related to the tax rate. The second wedge is created by the incomplete deductibility of depreciation. Its size is directly related to the tax rate and inversely to the deductible share of depreciation. For the distortion in the growth path of the economy it is the sum of the two wedges that counts. Therefore it is plausible that incomplete depreciation allowances reinforce the effects of capital income taxation.Knowing the determinants of the two wedges one can easily derive the influence of a tax reform on the marginal productivity of capital, the market rate of interest and the rate of time preference (cf. Table 2). In the short run, the system of these three interest rates is anchored by the marginal productivity of capital, and hence any measure that widens a wedge is translated into a reduction in the rate or those rates below the wedge. In the long run the system is anchored by the rate of time preference and an increase in the width of a wedge is translated into an increase in those rates or that rate above this wedge.The paper was written in association with the Sonderforschungsbereich 5 (Staatliche Allokationspolitik im marktwirtschaftlichen System).     

Optimal auctions with asymmetric financial externalities

This paper studies optimal auction design with asymmetric linear financial externalities among bidders. When the matrix Γ that relates bidders? payoffs to their payments is nonsingular, the payment-related component in the design objective must equal a unique linear combination of its counterparts in bidder?s payoffs. If all multipliers of the linear combination are nonnegative, a modified Myerson procedure is discovered for deriving the optimal design. If any multiplier is negative, an arbitrarily high value can be achieved for design objective by setting proper fixed transfers to bidders. When the matrix Γ is singular, the unbounded optimum result typically prevails. We applied our method to auctions with cross shareholdings and charity auctions for revenue-maximizing and efficient designs.     

Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modelled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.     

货币政策组合规则

本文建议在泡沫高涨时将货币政策由利率规则转为货币量规则。在本文设定的CIA模型经济中，外生泡沫通过金融渠道对经济发生影响。本文证实，即使是遵循了泰勒原则的利率规则也会因为对融资活动的增长提供相应的货币支持而实际上起到助长泡沫经济的作用；而货币量规则由于对货币供应的控制而能起到缩短并稳定泡沫经济影响的效果。本文的模拟实验表明，在大型泡沫经济中将利率规则与货币量规则组合使用能取得更好的宏观经济成果。同时，将不同规则进行组合使用的思想在货币政策的研究中是新颖的，本文还发展了模型对接的技术处理方法。     

The Balassa–Samuelson Effect in a Developing Country

Some Asian countries experience small real exchange rate appreciations or even a real depreciation despite a fast growth in tradable productivity. A key‐characteristic of these countries is that they are constrained on capital inflows. Is the Balassa–Samuelson theory still valid in those countries? Are there other factors likely to explain real exchange rate (RER) changes? To address these questions, we develop a two‐sector model in which a small open economy faces a constraint on capital inflows. In this setting, the RER does not only depend on productivity, but also on other factors like the rate of time preference, the age dependency ratio or the level of the external constraint. A calibration of the constrained economy model seems to match at least qualitatively empirical evidence for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, between 1970 and 1992.     

The impact of setting negative policy rates on banking flows and exchange rates

In the aftermath of the great contraction of 2008, policymakers were faced with the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Central banks implemented several unconventional monetary policies to overcome the ZLB, including setting negative nominal interest rates. This paper explores possible unintended effects of setting negative policy rates. Using Danish data, I assess the impact of paying a negative interest rate on reserves. Results suggest that going into negative territory has a particular impact, distinct from that of simply lowering interest rates: it leads to higher banking outflows and depreciation of the currency. Due to the reluctance of commercial banks to pass on negative rates to their depositors (retail deposits can easily be switched into cash), paying a negative (vs. positive) interest rate on reserves creates a disconnection between the assets and liabilities of commercial banks' balance sheets. Commercial banks can avoid this disconnection by holding external assets or assets in foreign currencies. This incentive to increase banking outflows appears to explain the particular impact of going into negative territory.     

还杜邦财务分析系统的原貌

杜邦财务分析系统是对企业财务状况进行综合评价的一种较好方法,目前中国普遍采用销售净利率、资产周转率和权益乘数三因素分析。而创造杜邦财务分析系统的美国则是采用税收负担率、利息负担率、销售报酬率、资产周转率和权益乘数五因素分析。实践证明,五因素分析比三因素分析更能全面地反映企业的经营情况。     

REAL BALANCES, RELATIVE PRICES AND AN OPEN MODEL TEMPORARY EQUILIBRIUM WITH RATIONING THE MARSHALL-LERNER CONDITIONS IN

The model is of an open economy producing a single output, the demand for which depends on its price, the price of foreign output, real incomes and government spending. We thereby extend the rationed equilibrium model of Malinvaud to the simplest open economy. Residents hold foreign assets as well as domestic assets, hence exchange rate movements have real balance effects as well as relative price effects. The Marshall Lerner conditions are sufficient, but not necessary, for either an exchange rate depreciation or a fall in the domestic price level, to increase demand for domestic output. They are necessary, but not sufficient, for a depreciation or fall in the domestic price level, to improve the trade balance under Keynesian Unemployment.     

How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?

We show that credit market imperfections substantially increase the government-spending multiplier when the economy enters a liquidity trap. This finding is explained by the tight association between capital goods and firms? collateral, a relationship that we highlight as the capital-accumulation channel. During a liquidity trap, a government spending expansion reduces the real interest rate, leading to a period of cheap credit. Entrepreneurs use this time to accumulate capital, which persistently improves their balance sheets and reduces their future costs of credit. A public spending expansion can thus encourage private investment, yielding consequently a large spending multiplier. This effect is further reinforced by Fisher?s debt-deflation channel.