Reducing Public Debt under Dynamic Efficiency: Transitional Dynamics in Diamond's OLG Model

Fiscal retrenchment is on the political agenda in the U.S. as well as in the EU. Utilizing Diamond's [1965] classic OLG growth model with internal debt, this paper focuses on temporarily adjusting the ratio of the primary budget surplus to GDP to achieve a target debt to GDP ratio lower than its initial level in the case of dynamic efficiency. The transitional dynamics of the debt to GDP and of the capital–output ratios are rigorously analyzed. It is shown that reducing the public debt to GDP ratio diminishes private capital intensity too.The author thanks, without implication, an anonymous referee and Laurie Conway for extremely useful advice and comments.     

ADJUSTING SOUTH AFRICA'S FISCAL BALANCE FOR TERMS-OF-TRADE EFFECTS

Standard output gap‐based calculations and interpretations of the cyclical component of the fiscal balance may convey a misleading picture in countries such as South Africa which experience substantial movements in their terms of trade. This paper therefore adjusts South Africa's general government primary balance for terms‐of‐trade effects by means of an alternative calculation of the transitory component based on a measure of the real income gap rather than the real output gap. The results indicate that measures of the cyclical component of the budget balance based on real income and real output gaps generally yield broadly similar results over history, but during exceptional periods of rapid changes in commodity prices, the measures can be very different.     

Too Many Cooks? Committees in Monetary Policy

How many people should decide monetary policy? In this article, we take an empirical perspective on this issue and analyze the relationship between the number of monetary policy decision makers and monetary policy outcomes. Using a new data set that characterizes central bank monetary policy committees (MPCs) in more than 30 countries from 1960 through 2006, we find a U‐shaped relationship between MPC size and inflation; our results suggest that the lowest level of inflation is reached at MPCs with an intermediate size of about five to nine members. Similar results are obtained for inflation variability. Other MPC characteristics also matter for monetary policy outcomes, though to a smaller degree. For instance, the membership composition of the MPC as well as the frequency of MPC membership turnover appears to affect economic variables.     

Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries

The goal of this article is to examine the determinants of inflation in both the short run and the long run for 54 developing countries using a panel data set covering the 1995–2004 period. Apart from the commonly used economic determinants of inflation, we model the impact of remittances and institutional variables on inflation. Using the Arellano and Bond panel dynamic estimator and the Arellano and Bover and the Blundell and Bond system generalized method of moments estimator, we find evidence that in developing countries remittances generate inflation. The effect of remittances on inflation is more pronounced in the long run. Moreover, we find that openness, debt, current account deficits, the agricultural sector, and the short‐term U.S. interest rate have a positive effect on inflation. We also find that improvements in democracy reduce inflation.     

What Are the Drivers of Fiscal Performance Gaps between Anglophone and Francophone Africa? A Blinder–Oaxaca Decomposition

In this paper, we make use of the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition to examine how the quality of budget institutions affects fiscal performance – primary balance and public debt – in sub‐Saharan Africa. To organise our approach, we categorise sub‐Saharan Africa countries according to the two main systems of budgetary institutions: the English‐based system and the French‐based system. The quality of budget institutions is measured through five criteria: centralisation, comprehensiveness, fiscal and procedural rules, sustainability and credibility, and transparency. Our findings show that, on average, Anglophone Africa countries have better budgetary institutions than their Francophone counterparts, and this difference is the main determinant of the fiscal performance gaps between the two groups. These performance gaps are mostly due to the characteristics effect, meaning that the relative poor fiscal performance of Francophone countries is not due to the French‐based system itself but rather to the environment in which it operates. The budget process and procedures in these countries are relatively less comprehensive, sustainable and transparent and that adversely affects their fiscal performance.     

Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China, 1994–2002

The question of whether fiscal decentralization has affected economic growth since the 1994 fiscal reform in China is interesting to both policy makers and economists. Using a simple model of endogenous growth that incorporates spending by different levels of government, and a panel data set for 30 provinces for the period of 1994–2002, this paper finds that fiscal decentralization contributes significantly to economic growth. This finding is consistent with the theoretical prediction that fiscal decentralization can increase economic efficiency. In addition, this paper attempts to investigate how the relationship between fiscal decentralization and provincial growth differs in the different regions considered. For this purpose, the 30 Chinese provinces and regions are categorized into three conventional economic belts that comprise the eastern, central, and western areas. This study finds that the effects of fiscal decentralization on economic growth vary among these three regions.     

Eastern Germany and the conflict between wage adjustment,investment, and employment: A numerical analysis

Eastern Germany and the Conflict between Wage Adjustment, Investment, and Employment: A Numerical Analysis. — In this paper, some light is shed on the dynamics of the adjustment process in eastern Germany by studying the linkages between the dynamics of wage adjustment, investment, and employment. An extended dynamic investment model, which includes adjustment costs for capital and revision costs for investment, is presented. This model is specified according to the east German economy and analyzed numerically by an optimization method based on direct collocation. Results are obtained for the time horizon of adjustment and for the implications of different wage strategies on the path of investment and employment.     

Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?

Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Monetary Union: Credible Inflation Targets or Monetized Debt? —The paper examines the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary policy in a two-country monetary union. The worst scenario occurs when an independent central bank sets the nominal interest rate and responds to rising government debt/GDP ratios by monetization. The result is high inflation, high debt/GDP ratios and a large public sector. Government debt and inflation are contained if the governments bear sole responsibility for solvency, but the public sector remains excessively large. The best scenario occurs if the central bank removes the incentive for the governments to engineer surprise inflation by credible inflation targeting.     

Estimates of average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan

In this paper, we estimate average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan from 1963 to 2007. We adapt the method of D.H. Joines [Estimates of effective marginal tax rates on factor incomes. J. Bus. 54 (2), 191-226.] to the Japanese tax and social security system. Average marginal tax rates on labor incomes without social security premiums range from 14% to 21%, whereas the rates on incomes with social security have increased from 21% to 33%. Tax rates on capital incomes have fluctuated between 35% and 58%. We also compare our estimates with average tax rates and the wedges from business cycle accounting.