The effects of reconstruction finance corporation assistance on Michigan's banks' survival in the 1930s

We examine the effects of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation's (RFC) loan and preferred stock programs on bank failure rates in Michigan during the period 1932–1934, which includes the important Michigan banking crisis of early 1933 and its aftermath. Using a new database on Michigan banks, we employ probit and survival duration analysis to examine the effectiveness of the RFC's loan program (the policy tool employed before March 1933) and the RFC's preferred stock purchases (the policy tool employed after March 1933) on bank failure rates.     

Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan

Finding the causal effects of liquidity shocks on credit supply is complicated by the endogenous relation between loan demand and liquidity position of banks. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by exploiting, as a natural experiment, the exogenous deposit outflow prompted by the removal of a blanket deposit guarantee on time deposits in Japan. We find that during the period of transition from a blanket guarantee to a partial guarantee, weak banks suffered from a large outflow of partially insured time deposits. More importantly, we find that those weak banks were not able to raise a sufficient amount of other types of deposits to make up for the loss of time deposits, which, consequently, forced them to cut back on loan supply. These results are consistent with the theory that the imperfect substitutability of insured deposits and uninsured deposits affects the tightness of banks’ financing constraints and ultimately the supply of bank loans.     

The third leg of the stool: Financial stability as a prerequisite for EMU

The Third Leg of the Stool: Financial Stability, as a Prerequisite for EMU. — Concerns about fiscal and monetary stability have dominated discussions on EMU, while issues relating to financial stability have received less attention. This paper argues that monetary and fiscal stability are like two legs of a stool. A third leg, stability of the financial system, is required to keep EMU on its feet. The empirical evidence shows that in many European countries, governments still have a large hold on the domestic financial sector, both as owner and as principal debtor. The author argues that governments should leave bank ownership to the private sector, holdings of government debt to the public, and supervision to a specialized, independent European institution.     

Fear and greed: The evolution of double liability in American banking, 1865-1930

This paper examines the pattern and timing of the enactment of double liability for state banks in the United States prior to the Great Depression. Under double liability, shareholders of failing banks could lose, in addition to the initial purchase price of shares, an amount equal to the par value of shares owned. The results suggest that double liability was adopted by states subject to greater economic risks, where bank failures were more likely, or where the economy and banking sector were more advanced and bank failures would be more costly (i.e., fear), and that single liability was adopted by more rapidly growing states, where the payoff to greater risk-taking was higher (i.e., greed).     

Asymmetric information in late 19th century cooperative insurance societies

Between 1880 and 1930, cooperative insurance was the main source of illness, accident, and death insurance in the United States, Canada, and England. This paper tests for asymmetric information in cooperative insurance societies and examines how their pricing policies affected the profile of members. We find strong evidence that, unlike their modern substitutes, cooperative societies were able to overcome the asymmetry of information. Furthermore, as a consequence of non-actuarial pricing, our results suggest that workers deferred their membership until they were about 40 years old.     

Balance sheet deterioration and credit allocations: Japanese evidence from the short-term economic survey of enterprises

This study is an empirical attempt to investigate the effects of balance sheet deterioration of Japanese firms and banks in the 1990s on credit allocation using the short-term economic survey of enterprises. This survey contains a unique item: proportion of firms perceiving the lending attitude as severe. After developing a theoretical model to link this item with the balance sheet conditions of borrowers and lenders, we estimate the relationship derived from the model. We find that credit was reduced when the balance sheet of firms and banks deteriorated. The effects are notably large for non-manufacturing industries.     

MEASURING THE OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN NAMIBIA

This paper examines the efficiency of commercial banks in Namibia using the standard econometric frontier approach. Although two aspects of efficiency (scale and scope) receive our attention, the emphasis is on the latter which pertains to whether a firm produces as efficiently as it possibly can, given its size. Our results indicate that substantial economies of scale exist in commercial banking in Namibia. This will tend to suggest that commercial banks in Namibia can increase their efficiency by increasing their current scale of operation. The results for scope economies show that the current level of input combination does not make for maximum efficiency as sufficient scope exists for a more efficient combination of inputs. We believe this will reduce operating costs in the industry and stimulate efficiency.     

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND AGGREGATE PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper investigates the effects of time varying uncertainty on aggregate private fixed investment in South Africa. The GARCH generated measures of volatility of selected macroeconomic variables indicating five measures of uncertainty are used in the analysis. These are output growth uncertainty, uncertainty about changes in the real effective exchange rate, uncertainty about changes in the real interest rate, producer inflation uncertainty, and terms of trade uncertainty. The results of the estimation by an empirical ECM model of conventional investment determinants controlling for the effects of uncertainty indicated that, over all, time varying macroeconomic uncertainty significantly reduces private fixed investment.     

Were Nineteenth‐Century Industrial Workers Permanent Income Savers?

Theories of household saving posit that households add to or draw down wealth to equalize the discounted present value of consumption over time. This article examines the extent to which 19th century urban American industrial workers saved and dissaved to smooth consumption in response to unanticipated, plausibly exogenous, shocks to income. Information on the expected and unexpected number of days unemployed is used to construct estimates of transitory income. The data are then used to estimate the marginal propensity to save from transitory income. The results are broadly consistent with Friedman's ( 1957 ) permanent income hypothesis in that the marginal propensity to consume from transitory income is about twice that of nontransitory income.     

The Intratemporal Substitution between Government Spending and Private Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

In this paper, we investigate the idea that a general model of consumption should allow for the direct effect of government consumption. We show, given an assumed preference specification, that there is a cointegration restriction implied by an intraperiod first-order condition of the model. This restriction leads to a linear deterministic cointegrated system of government consumption, private consumption and their relative price that is consistent with the data for Taiwan. The intratemporal elasticity of substitution between government and private consumption is estimated to be about 1.1. Overall, we find consistent empirical evidence in support of our model.     

AN ANALYSIS OF INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper describes the evolution of inventory investment in South Africa over the past two decades, and identifies the factors influencing inventory investment over this period. An econometric model of inventory investment in South Africa, based on the production smoothing approach, is constructed. The results of the model indicate that actual sales, production, unfilled orders, price levels, interest rates and expected sales have an influence on the evolution of inventory investment. These variables are directly or indirectly influenced by macroeconomic policy decisions and through their influence on inventory investment they also influence changes in gross domestic product. Therefore, prior information on the factors that influence inventory investment contributes to explaining changes in gross domestic product and may help to prepare more accurate short‐term forecasts of overall economic activity.