美国银行业的国际化进程及其启示

本文对美国120多年来的银行国际化进程进行了分析。研究发现,美国的银行国际化成少败多,少数大型银行是国际化的主力。国际化战略和模式、重大的政治事件和经济周期对美国银行国际化的成败具有重要的影响。     

Strategy, performance-measurement systems, and performance: A study of Chinese firms

Numerous studies in developed Western countries have shown that firms' strategic choices are responsive to attributes of their external environment. In turn, performance-measurement systems are used to support strategy implementation, which then affect firm performance. However, institutional factors may limit the extent to which these linkages exist in the transitional Chinese economy. We analyze survey and publicly available data for 104 listed Chinese manufacturing firms and find that, despite a number of identifiable impediments, these firms' strategic emphasis on growth is responsive to the competition and uncertainty that they face. In the case of uncertainty, the relationship goes in the opposite direction to that found in Western firms. Like their Western counterparts, Chinese firms with greater emphasis on growth also tend to make greater use of balanced/integrated performance measurement systems, and, in turn, they perform at a higher level.     

Bank Consolidation, Internationalization, and Conglomeration: Trends and Implications for Financial Risk

This paper documents trends in bank activity, consolidation, internationalization, and financial firm conglomeration with data on more than 100 countries, and explores the extent to which financial firm risk and systemic risk potential in banking are related to consolidation and conglomeration. The relationship between consolidation, conglomeration and financial risk is documented using financial data on the largest 500 financial firms worldwide and on large banks in about 90 countries. We find that (a) large conglomerate firms did not exhibit levels of risk‐taking lower than smaller and specialized firms in 1995, while they exhibited higher levels of risk‐taking in 2000; (b) highly concentrated banking systems exhibited levels of systemic risk potential higher than less concentrated systems during the 1993–2000 period, and this relationship has strengthened during the 1997–2000 period. We outline research directions aimed at explaining why bank consolidation and conglomeration may not necessarily yield either safer financial firms or more resilient banking systems.     

Liberalization, corporate governance and the performance of privatized firms in developing countries

This paper seeks to provide an answer to the following question: when and how does privatization work? Using a sample of 230 firms headquartered in 32 developing countries, we document a significant increase in profitability, efficiency, investment and output. Our analysis shows that the changes in performance vary with the extent of macro-economic reforms and environment, and the effectiveness of corporate governance. In particular, economic growth is associated with higher profitability and efficiency gains, trade liberalization is associated with higher levels of investment and output, while financial liberalization is associated with higher output changes. Further, control relinquishment by the government is a key determinant of profitability, efficiency gains and output increases. Finally, we find higher improvements in efficiency for firms in countries in which stock markets are more developed and where property rights are better protected and enforced. These results for a sample of developing countries differ from those reported in a contemporaneous study by D'Souza et al. [D'Souza, J., Megginson, W.L., Nash, R.C., 2001. Why do privatized firms improve performance? Evidence from developed countries. Unpublished working paper. University of Oklahoma] which focuses on developed countries. These diverging findings suggest that privatization in developing countries indeed obeys to particular constraints and has a dynamic of its own.     

Performance evaluation bias: A comparative study on the role of financial fixation,similarity-to-self and likeability

Performance evaluations are critical to organizational control. Dissatisfaction with systems emphasizing financial targets only has driven many companies to adopt systems using multiple performance measures. These multiple measurement systems (MMS) however may exacerbate certain cognitive biases. Using multiple performance measures can be a cognitively complex task that invites coping reactions anchored in simplifying heuristic biases, such as the likability of the target evaluatee and similarity-to-self. There are reasons to believe that these biases may manifest differently across “individualistic” or “collectivist” cultures. Our study examines three biases (financial fixation, similarity-to-self and likeability) across two distant cultures (United States and Spain) along the individualistic–collectivist dimensions. Participants are MBA students from Spain and the US. Consistent with theory-based predictions, we find that likability and similarity-to-self impact Spanish participants while financial fixation presents greater influence among US participants. These findings underscore the importance of considering national culture in designing performance measurement systems and advise about the role of specific biases, which are not culturally neutral.     

人民币国际化与国际收支失衡的“怪圈”：理论与实证

随着人民币国际化进程的加快,我国国际收支失衡呈加剧之势．且对人民币国际化形成了一定的阻碍,从而形成了“人民币国际化——国际收支失衡”怪圈。出现这个怪圈的影响因素有多种,包括我国经济内外部失衡严重及外部平衡与人民币国际化战略不协调,出口导向发展战略及利用外资发展战略．人民币国际化程度低也是造成这个怪圈的原因。对此,优化国际收支结构;增强人民币国际可接受性,提高人民币国际化程度：改变出口导向战略和利用外资发展战略,增加进口,并鼓励企业用人民币加大对海外的投资,让企业真正“走出去”;通过建立人民币离岸中心,解决人民币回流问题。     

国际收支结构研究:基于人民币国际化视角的分析

跨境贸易人民币结算试点标志着人民币国际化已经进入了一个新的阶段。人民币国际化是一个由初级到高级逐步发展的渐进过程。人民币国际化的不同阶段需要不同的条件。本文主要探讨了人民币国际化不同阶段所要求的国际收支结构特征,在此基础上,结合我国当前的国际收支结构状况,对国际收支政策及人民币国际化战略提出建议。     

IPO waves, product market competition, and the going public decision: Theory and evidence

We develop a new rationale for initial public offering (IPO) waves based on product market considerations. Two firms, with differing productivity levels, compete in an industry with a significant probability of a positive productivity shock. Going public, though costly, not only allows a firm to raise external capital cheaply, but also enables it to grab market share from its private competitors. We solve for the decision of each firm to go public versus remain private, and the optimal timing of going public. In equilibrium, even firms with sufficient internal capital to fund their new investment may go public, driven by the possibility of their product market competitors going public. IPO waves may arise in equilibrium even in industries which do not experience a productivity shock. Our model predicts that firms going public during an IPO wave will have lower productivity and post-IPO profitability but larger cash holdings than those going public off the wave; it makes similar predictions for firms going public later versus earlier in an IPO wave. We empirically test and find support for these predictions.     

人民币国际化进程中的上海国际金融中心建设——历史视角下的经验和启示

本文将国际金融中心的演进历史与主要国际货币的变化相对比,通过相关性分析、Granger因果检验等定量研究发现,货币国际化和国际金融中心之间是高度相关、彼此促进的;发达的金融市场可为本币国际化提供重要的市场平台,而没有充足证据显示货币国际化程度的提高会必然促进本国金融市场的发展,．历史经验启示,上海建设国际金融中心要与人民币国际化的进程相匹配,具体要加快推进上海金融市场对外开放,支持人民币金融产品和业务创新,优化金融监管和金融服务环境,充分发挥浦东“核心功能区”的聚集效应等。     

国际贸易中标价货币使用的理论进展及对人民币国际化的启示

国际贸易中的标价货币选择是国际经济学的一个重要研究对象,对开放经济条件下的政策制定以及货币国际化具有重要意义。从理论基础来看,内生标价理论主要沿着局部均衡和一般均衡两条路径进展,本文归纳了相关理论、模型,以及对标价货币选择因素的实证分析,并结合当前人民币国际化给出一些启示和建议。     

Organisational design choices in response to public sector reforms: A case study of mandated hospital networks

In this study we investigate the design and control of public sector networks formed by government mandate. Specifically, we analyse how a range of antecedent factors influence the extent to which organisations within such networks effectively collaborate to unify their efforts. We examine the role of both formal and informal controls in promoting and co-ordinating activity and managing appropriation concerns among organisations of the network. We address these issues in the context of health sector reforms in Victoria, Australia, that resulted in the amalgamation of metropolitan hospitals into a number of hospital networks. While the reforms determined the particular aggregation of hospitals, management retained discretion as to the organisation and control of activity among hospitals of the network. We draw on Oliver's (1991) predictive model of strategic responses to institutional mandates to analyse how efficiency and legitimacy concerns, the influence of external constituents, and consistency between institutional and organisational goals influence resultant structural and control choices in three of these hospital networks. Specifically, we examine the extent to which structural and control attributes promote the integration of activity within networks by analysing the delegation and partitioning of decision rights, and the design and use of performance measurement systems, integrative liaison devices, and standard operating procedures. We also consider the implications of integration for network performance. In our empirical analysis of three hospital networks we observe tension in network design relating to the achievement of efficiency and legitimacy imperatives that underpin the mandate to form hospital networks. The networks differ in their potential to generate efficiency and legitimacy gains from collaboration, their commitment to the ideals underlying the institutional mandate, and their willingness to pursue effective collaboration in light of the influence of other external constituents. In turn they adopt structural and control system designs that reflect different levels of clinical activity integration, and different degrees of substantive acquiescence to the institutional mandate to collaborate.     

Financial liberalisation,crisis, and restructuring: A comparative study of bank performance and bank governance in South East Asia

This paper examines the impact of changes in bank governance on bank performance for a sample of commercial banks operating in SE Asia between 1990 and 2003. We identify bank governance in terms of bank ownership and measure bank performance as rank order alternative profit efficiency, technical change, and productivity. The period was characterised by financial deregulation, the Asian crisis and bank restructuring programmes. To resolve financial distress, SE Asian authorities implemented inter alia bank privatisation programmes and widened access for foreign ownership. Our results tend to support bank privatisation and the repeal of state ownership on economic grounds. We suggest the potential benefits of foreign ownership may take longer to be realised. For domestic private-owned banks, the challenge is improving bank efficiency.     

Product innovation, budgetary control, and the financial performance of firms

Organizations are increasingly calling for greater budgetary oversight of the product innovation process. A major focus of their concern is the costs associated with product innovation together with their need to enhance their financial performance through these endeavours. However, the literature has raised a number of issues arising from such budgetary proposals, suggesting that the creativity of those involved in product innovation should not be constrained by cost concerns, that the use of management control systems is incompatible with product innovation, and that budgets may stifle innovation. It is argued in this paper that the extent to which product innovation has a positive impact on the financial performance of firms is dependent on the manner in which budgets are used in organizations. If budgets are used predominantly as a planning mechanism, then such budget planning facilitates product innovation resulting in enhanced performance. In contrast, if budgets are used primarily as a control mechanism, then it is unlikely that product innovation will contribute to financial performance. The results of the study are consistent with these expectations. This paper makes a contribution to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the impact of budgets in the context of product innovation.     

The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study

Theoretically-driven, market-based contingent claims models have recently been applied to the field of corporate insolvency prediction in an attempt to provide the art with a theoretical methodology that has been lacking in the past. Limited studies have been carried out in order directly to compare the performance of these models with that of their accounting number-based counterparts. We use receiver operating characteristic curves to assess the efficacy of thirteen selected models using, for the first time, post-IFRS UK data; and investigate the distributional properties of model efficacy. We find that the efficacy of the models is generally less than that reported in the prior literature; but that the contingent claims models outperform models which use accounting numbers. We also obtain the counter-intuitive finding that predictions based on a single variable can be as efficient as those which are based on models which are far more complicated – in terms of variable variety and mathematical construction. Finally, we develop and test a naïve version of the down-and-out-call barrier option model for insolvency prediction and find that, despite its simple formulation, it performs favourably compared alongside other contingent claims models.     

The relations among competition, delegation, management accounting systems change and performance: A path model

This paper is concerned with an empirical investigation into the relations among competition, delegation, management accounting and control systems (MACS) change and organizational performance. It follows a standard contingency type path modeling to propose that intensity of competition causes firms to change their MACS and that this change enhances their performance. Delegation of authority is implicated in the model as competition encourages delegation, and this in turn causes the change in MACS, as well as enhancing performance directly. The results from a sample of Australian strategic business units indicate that (1) increased competition results in improved organizational performance indirectly through a greater number of changes in MACS, and (2) increased delegation of authority to lower level management leads to higher organizational performance. These results contribute to the management accounting change literature by providing empirical evidence that the relationship between competition and organizational performance is mediated by a decentralized organizational form and changes in MACS of the firm.     

Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas

Unconditional alphas are biased when conditional beta covaries with the market risk premium (market timing) or volatility (volatility timing). We demonstrate an additional bias (overconditioning) that can occur any time an empiricist estimates risk using information, such as a realized beta, that is not available to investors ex ante. Calibrating to U.S. equity returns, volatility timing and overconditioning can plausibly impact alphas more than market timing, which has been the focus of prior literature. To correct market- and volatility-timing biases without overconditioning, we show that incorporating realized betas into instrumental variables estimators is effective. Empirically, instrumentation reduces momentum alphas by 20-40%. Overconditioned alphas overstate performance by up to 2.5 times. We explain the sources of both the volatility-timing and overconditioning biases in momentum portfolios.     

Goals versus institutions: the development of performance measurement in the Swedish university sector

This paper contrasts goal-directed and institutional approaches to the development of performance measurement (PM) in the Swedish university sector, which has been subject to increasing emphasis on management by objectives since the early 1990s. We adopt a macro perspective, focusing on recent changes in PM related to governmental control of universities and colleges and combine an extensive review of archival data with interviews in our empirical analysis. It is concluded that although the goal-directed model cannot be completely rejected as a heuristic informing recent changes in PM, a process-orientated institutional perspective considerably enriches the analysis by making it less static and more contextually informed. In particular, the latter perspective better explains the evolution of loose couplings between formally stated goals and performance indicators and between different systems for PM by directing attention to the complex interplay between conflicting constituent interests in the evolution of resource and cost allocation practices and quality control procedures. However, our empirical analysis also leads us to reconsider the conceptions of loose coupling as either a “given” feature of institutionalised organizations or an outcome of more pro-active resistance at the micro level prevailing in much earlier work in institutional theory.     

Financial market development and the effectiveness of R&D investment: Evidence from developed and emerging countries

Does financial market development enhance the effectiveness of R&D investment in an economy? To address this question, we apply three distinct approaches including (i) ordinary least square method, (ii) cross-country instrumental variable regression approach, and (iii) panel regression method. By using a dataset of both developed and emerging countries, we find that financial market development significantly contributes to the effectiveness of total R&D investment. This finding remains robust across different model specifications and individual estimation methods. Our finding provides an important guidance to policy makers in implementing a sound financial environment that can facilitate the total contribution of R&D investment.     

Valuing executive stock options: performance hurdles, early exercise and stochastic volatility

Accounting standards require companies to assess the fair value of any stock options granted to executives and employees. We develop a model for accurately valuing executive and employee stock options, focusing on performance hurdles, early exercise and uncertain volatility. We apply the model in two case studies and show that properly computed fair values can be significantly lower than traditional Black–Scholes values. We then explore the implications for pay-for-performance sensitivity and the design of effective share-based incentive schemes. We find that performance hurdles can require a much greater fraction of total compensation to be a fixed salary, if pre-existing incentive levels are to be maintained.