The determinants of economic growth of transition economies: Economic reform versus initial conditions

Abstract

This study analyzes factors for economic recovery of transition economies in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States for the period of the 1990s. Covariance structure analysis is employed to estimate the structural equation system, and exploratory factor analysis is conducted to measure initial conditions and economic policy as latent variables. The result of analysis shows that the effect of initial conditions is negative and the impact of economic reform on growth is positive. However, the negative effect of initial conditions had overridden the positive impact of economic policy as of 2000. The reason that transition economies could not recover their pre-transition GDP level (even after ten years of transition history) seems to stem from the negative influence of initial conditions on growth rather than the slow speed of economic reform.     

Banking efficiency in transition economies

An increasing share of the banking sector is controlled by foreign capital in the majority of transition countries. To analyse the effects of this trend on the performance of the banking sector in these countries, this study conducts a comparative analysis of the performance of foreign‐owned and domestic‐owned banks operating in the Czech Republic and Poland. We use the stochastic frontier approach to compute cost efficiency scores. Following Mester (1996 ), financial capital is included in the cost frontier model to control for risk preferences. Our finding is that on average foreign‐owned banks are more efficient than domestic‐owned banks. We conclude, however, that this advantage does not result from differences in the scale of operations or the structure of activities.     

Institution building and growth in transition economies

Drawing on the recent literature on economic institutions and the origins of economic development, we offer a political economy explanation of why institution building has varied so much across transition economies. We identify dependence on natural resources and the historical experience of these countries during socialism as major determinants of institution building during transition. Using natural resource reliance and the years under socialism to extract the exogenous component of institution building, we also show the importance of institutions in explaining the variation in economic development and growth across transition economies during the first decade of transition.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies

Using a panel dataset of bilateral flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), we study the determinants of FDI from Western countries, mainly in the European Union (EU), to Central and Eastern European ones. We find the most important influences to be unit labor costs, gravity factors, market size, and proximity. Interestingly, host country risk proves not to be a significant determinant. Our empirical work also indicates that announcements about EU Accession proposals have an impact on FDI for the future member countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 775–787.     

Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies*

This paper tests whether reform reversals during transition carry an economic cost. Reform is measured by an average reform index, while reform reversals are characterized by a drop in the average reform index. In the standard empirical framework the current level of reform affects growth negatively, while the lagged level affects growth positively. This non‐linear effect implies a counterintuitive, short‐lived positive effect of a reversal. In a simultaneous equation system with growth and the level of reform as dependent variables we explicitly introduce a reversal parameter. Empirical results suggest that reversals have an immediate negative impact on real output growth. Controlling for the level of reform shows that reversals are more costly at higher levels of reform.     

Geography,geopolitics, and policy in the performance of transition economies

The economic performance of the transition economies as of 2015 is well explained by three variables: (1) years of membership in the EU; (2) physical distance from the heart of the EU economy, taken to be Dusseldorf; and (3) annual revenues from oil and gas production, reflecting natural resource deposits. These three factors account for around 86 percent of the variation in per capita income across the 28 transition economies, and reflect the interplay of domestic policy, geopolitics, geography and natural resources.     

Effects of bank insolvency on corporate incentives in transition economies

In transition countries, the real impact of banking crises has so far been rather moderate. We study the effect of bank insolvency on corporate incentives in a model where incumbent banks possess an informational advantage. We find that bank insolvency reduces the incentive to restructure for firms whose incumbent bank becomes insolvent. However, bank insolvency provides an additional incentive for firms that enter the credit market to develop new projects because it reduces asymmetric information between banks. Firms’ credit costs are thereby lowered. We also explain a path‐dependent development by demonstrating that the firms’ decision to develop new projects depends on the banks’ share of non‐performing loans.     

The sequencing of reform policies in China's agricultural transition*

This paper provides evidence regarding gains due to agricultural market liberalization in China. We empirically identify the different effects that incentive and farm restructuring reforms and gradual market liberalization have on China's agricultural economy during its transition period. We find that average gains within the agricultural sector due to reforms that improved incentives and increased decision‐making authority of producers exceed gains due to market liberalization by a large margin. Our method of analyzing the effects of transition policies on economic performance can be generalized to other reform paths in other transition economies.     

The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies

What have been the determinants of financial volatility in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union? This paper posits that institutional changes, and in particular the volatility of crucial institutions such as property rights, have been the major causes of financial volatility in transition. Building a unique monthly database of 20 transition economies from 1991 to 2017, this paper applies the GARCH family of models to examine financial volatility as a function of institutional volatility. The results show that more advanced institutions help to dampen financial sector volatility, while institutional volatility feeds through directly to financial sector volatility in transition. Democratic changes in particular engender much higher levels of volatility, while property rights are sensitive to the metric used for their measurement.     

The sector bias of skill-biased technical change and the rising skill premium in transition economies

We test the hypothesis that the sector bias of skill biased technical change is important in explaining the rising relative wage of skilled workers in the manufacturing sector in three Central and Eastern European transition countries. The econometric results broadly confirm that the concentration of skill biased technical change in the skill intensive sectors had a significant effect on the skill premium in these transition countries.

Growth in transition economies: A trade policy perspective1

This paper examines the influence of trade liberalization on GDP growth during the transition from communism. The level of trade liberalization is found to raise the growth rate, particularly in the early part of the transition and for the countries nearest to the European Union. For the remaining countries and for the later transition period, the positive influence of trade reform on growth requires the negative effect of the interaction between trade reform and privatization to be taken into account. Even with the interaction terms the effect of trade liberalization is not statistically significant in the later transition period.     

Unemployment and the economics of gradualist policy reform

This paper investigates the efficiency of adjustment to economic reform programs when the cost of adjustment arises from high unemployment that can be generated as contracting sectors shrink faster than expanding sectors grow. Under plausible assumptions on the adjustment process, the speed of adjustment to “shock therapy” reforms is shown to be excessively rapid, and the rate of unemployment to be excessively high during the transition to the new equilibrium. The authorities can improve the efficiency of the adjustment by removing the distortion gradually, rather than abruptly. Gradualism has beneficial income distributional, as well as efficiency properties, because it improves welfare of the unemployed, who are necessarily the least advantaged social group in this model.     

Determinants of cross‐border bank acquisitions in transition economies1

We analyse the microeconomic determinants of cross‐border bank acquisitions in 11 transition economies over the period 1992–2006. We find that foreign banks target relatively large and efficient banks when they enter transition economies with weak institutions. This evidence provides support for the ‘market power’ hypothesis. However, when foreign banks enter more developed transition economies that have made progress in economic reform, they acquire less efficient banks. This result is in line with the efficiency hypothesis. We use a multilevel mixed effects logit model that allows us to explicitly incorporate the macroeconomic and institutional heterogeneity of the transition economies into our analysis.     

“宪政转轨论”评析

中俄改革的比较研究 ,一直是新兴的转轨经济学关注的热点。1 998年俄罗斯爆发金融和经济危机 ,激进改革的支持者一度趋于沉寂。然而 ,从 1 999年下半年开始 ,俄罗斯经济出现转机 ,2 0 0 0年经济增长居世界第一 ,GDP增幅达 8 3 %。与此同时 ,中国经济改革进入攻坚的中期阶段。在这一关键阶段 ,渐进改革积累的矛盾日趋严峻 ,同时还面临加入WTO市场化改革滞后的外在压力。毫无疑问 ,中国经济仍要进行重大调整和改革。在这一背景下 ,国内外经济学界又在进一步探讨中俄改革的道路和方式问题。本文是对目前讨论的一个著名观点“宪政转轨”论进行分析和批驳。     

The determinants of corruption in transition economies

This paper examines the determinants of corruption in transition economies. We found that the progress of structural reform, comprising marketization, rule of law, and democratization had a crucial impact on the extent of corruption control in former socialist countries.     

The explanatory power of market-based trade theories for the trade between market economies and reform countries

We try to explain the bilateral trade structure between Austria and three of its former socialist neighbours by trade theories developed for market economies, specifically focussing on the Heckscher-Ohlin model in its commodity version. We use data on factor intensities in about 100 industries in the EC and in Austria and can explain a modest amount of the trade structure before and after the start of the transition process and to some degree also of the change in the trade structure. The restrictions given by the data, the absence of a price system in socialist countries and the disequilibria in the actual trade suggest why the explanatory power of the tested theory is not higher. The study however indicates that at least some part of the industry in the former Czechoslovakia and in Poland had been well endowed with capital and energy before the transition. In the first five years of the transition a balanced trade turned into a high deficit of the reform countries.The authors wish to thank the participants of the EMPIRICA ECONOMIC POLICY FORUM Consequences of Eastern European Reform in Vienna, October 18, 1993 for an intensive discussion. Thanks to Robert Holzmann, Michael Landesmann, Gabor Oblath, Sandor Richter, Gunther Tichy, Michael L. Wyzan for comments. We also thank Christa Magerl and Elisabeth Neppl-Oswald for the calculations and for reading various drafts of the paper.     

Seize the state, seize the day: state capture and influence in transition economies

Data from the 1999 Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey is used to examine state capture and influence in transition economies. We find that a capture economy has emerged in many transition countries, where rent-generating advantages are sold by public officials and politicians to private firms. While influence is a legacy of the past inherited by large, incumbent firms with existing ties to the state, state capture is a strategic choice made primarily by large de novo firms competing against influential incumbents. Captor firms, in high-capture economies, enjoy private advantages in terms of more protection of their own property rights and superior firm performance. Despite the private gains to captor firms, state capture is associated at the aggregate level with social costs in the form of weaker economy-wide firm performance. Journal of Comparative Economics 31 (4) (2003) 751–773.     

Benchmarking competitiveness in transition economies

This paper constructs an indicator for the current level of international competitiveness of countries in transition. We find that Hungary is the most competitive country in the group while Turkmenistan is the least. Competitiveness measurement, in our view, is a way to use uniform criteria to gauge the extent to which a country makes use of various levers to promote sustained improvements in its well-being. We construct our measure of competitiveness drawing upon both the popular literature on competitiveness as well as modern economic theory. The approach acknowledges the importance of synergies between firms, markets, and government and, above all, the crucial role of institutions. Our choice of variables stresses the special characteristics of transition countries. By bringing to bear all the existing data on these countries, together with new survey data collected for the purpose, we are able to go beyond the mere ranking of countries to decompose the sources of competitiveness into their constituent parts. This allows policy makers to identify areas where their countries are lagging behind relative to other countries in their region. Our indicator is also compatible with the Global Competitiveness Report series categories, thus allowing us to benchmark transition countries against the rest of the world.
JEL classification: C82, O47, O57, P27, P52.     

Energy efficiency in transition economies

This article outlines and estimates a measure of underlying efficiency in electricity consumption for an unbalanced panel of 27 transition economies and 6 European OECD countries between 1994 and 2007. A Bayesian Generalized True Random Effects stochastic frontier model with persistent and transient inefficiency is considered by estimating an aggregate electricity demand function that leads to consumption efficiency scores, giving further insights than a simple analysis of energy intensity. There is evidence of convergence between the CIS countries and a block of Eastern European and OECD countries, although other country groups do not follow this tendency, such as the Balkans.     

Employment protection reform in search economies

The design of employment protection legislation (EPL) is of particular importance in the European debate on the contours of labor-market reform. In this article we appeal to an equilibrium unemployment model to investigate the virtues of EPL reform which reduces the red tape and legal costs associated with layoffs and introduces a U.S.-style experience-rating system, which we model as a combination of a layoff tax and a payroll subsidy. The reform considered shows that it is possible to improve the efficiency of employment protection policies without affecting the extent of worker protection on the labor market. These results are consistent with the conventional wisdom that experience rating is desirable, not only as an integral component of unemployment-compensation finance, as most studies acknowledge, but also as part and parcel of a virtuous EPL system.