债务违约损失率研究综述

本文介绍了违约损失率的概念,对国内外违约损失率的研究现状进行了梳理,重点探讨了违约损失率的影响因素、量化方法、数据库建设情况,以及穆迪、标准普尔和惠誉三大全球性评级机构的违约损失率研究现状,最后提出了我国开展违约损失率研究的建议。     

商业银行个人抵押贷款违约风险管理研究

当住房消费成为新的消费热点后,房地产金融业务的重心也逐渐从房地产开发贷款向个人住房贷款业务转移。任何金融业务的核心问题都是风险问题,个人住房抵押贷款也不例外。本文以研究个人住房抵押贷款违约风险理论为出发点,应用机理分析的方法,借鉴西方发达国家的管理经验,试图发现现阶段中国个人住房抵押贷款违约风险管理中的主要问题,提出完善、提高商业银行防范个人住房抵押贷款违约风险管理水平的对策。     

商业银行违约损失率的影响因素——基于江苏省某银行历史债项数据的分析

该文在对违约损失率影响因素进行系统理论性梳理的基础上,利用江苏某银行历史债项数据,对违约损失率的影响因素进行了实证分析。从中发现：第一,银行违约损失率分布呈现出两端高、中间低的类似“U”型形状;第二,违约损失率受多种因素的影响,就江苏省的实际情况而言,地区、行业、企业性质、企业规模、贷款占比、授信形式、贷款溯源、风险缓释类型等因素都会对违约损失率产生显著的影响。     

试论住房抵押贷款违约风险的法律防控——以合肥市为例

文章在对合肥市个人住房抵押贷款的风险类型进行分析和研究上,提出了个人住房抵押贷款风险法律防控相关建议。国家应进一步健全住房信贷程序法律体系,构建个人信用法律制度,建立完善个人住房抵押贷款风险转移法律制度,进一步降低违约风险和违约损失。     

商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险管理研究

当住房消费成为新的消费热点后，房地产金融业务的重心也逐渐从房地产开发贷款向个人住房贷款业务转移。任何金融业务的核心问题都是风险问题，个人住房抵押贷款也不例外。本文主要从我国个人住房抵押贷款发展现状出发分析个人住房抵押贷款违约风险原因以及如何更好地完善、提高商业银行防范个人住房抵押贷款违约风险管理水平的对策。     

从次贷危机看消费信贷违约防范机制的失灵

本文以美国次贷危机为例,分析了消费信贷市场违约防范机制失灵的问题。本文指出,政府隐含担保的存在是导致消费信贷市场违约防范机制失灵的真正原因,可能使消费信贷市场出现大范围的违约并威胁整个金融体系的稳定。美国次级抵押贷款市场上爆发的危机不是偶然的,恰恰是消费信贷市场上违约风险防范机制失灵的一个集中反应。     

不同担保类型之下违约损失率的结构特征:针对中国的实证

信用资产的担保特性是其违约损失率(LGD)最重要的决定因素.通过实证研究挖掘不同担保类型的不良贷款的LGD的结构特征,对商业银行的信用风险管理、信贷投放导向以及信用风险监管,以及对资产管理公司的资产定价都有着重要的意义.本文以LossMetrics数据库中单笔单收的不良贷款数据为样本,对不同担保类型的LGD结构特征进行了详细实证分析,发现抵押担保和组合担保之下的LGD低于保证担保和信用担保之下的LGD,LGD与抵押品的市场价值负相关,LGD与现代企业制度密切相关等很多有价值的结果.     

基于持续期数据的我国住房抵押贷款违约和提前还款风险分析

本文利用我国住房抵押贷款持续期数据,估计了住房抵押贷款在整个持续期内的提前还款风险和违约风险的概率,同时研究了各影响因素对住房抵押贷款这两类风险的影响方向。目前在国内文献中尚未见诸有关住房抵押持续期的实证研究,本文的研究能够反映抵押贷款风险的内在时间效应,这是其它统计分析方法无法做到的。本文进一步指出它们在银行的抵押贷款证券化和信贷风险管理中的应用前景。     

从美国次贷危机谈商业银行住房抵押贷款风险防范

美国次贷危机自全面爆发并蔓延全球以来,给各国经济尤其是金融带来巨大的影响.文章对当前我国住房抵押贷款市场与美国进行了对比分析,得出我国住房抵押贷款违约风险不容忽视的结论.我国商业银行应该借鉴次贷危机的经验教训,高度重视住房抵押贷款的潜在风险,并做好风险防范措施,避免类似的危机在我国上演.     

美联邦住房管理局担保贷款违约率上升

美国联邦住房管理局表示．2月其担保的贷款中有7．46％出现严重违约，高于2008年同期的616％。外电3月30日报道．美国联邦住房管理局担保的住房抵押贷款违约率2月份较08年同期出现上升。     

Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks

This paper examines the movements of the Distance to Default (DD), a market-based measure of corporate default risk, of major failed Japanese banks in order to evaluate the predictive power of the DD measure for bank failures. The DD became smaller in anticipation of failure for most cases. Both the DD and DD spread, defined as the DD of a failed bank minus the DD of sound banks, were better indicators for deterioration of a failed bank's health than other traditional indicators. A probit model yielded that the quality of the DD was surely better than other measures. For a bank which window-dressed its financial statements, neither the DD nor the DD spread predicted the failure. However, the result was partly due to lack of transparency in financial statements and disclosed information.     

Devaluation,Debt, and Default in Emerging Economies

We explore the interactions between exchange rate and fiscal policy, and default on external debt. Exchange rate policy affects the supply of short-term debt facing the government. Under a conventional soft peg, it can be optimal for the government to set the exchange rate at a level in which partial default occurs. In this case multiple equilibria exist, with one featuring high interest rate, overvalued exchange rate, low level of output, and default. Default is also an equilibrium under a hard peg, precisely because devaluation is not an option. Under a hard peg, however, there is a unique equilibrium.

Local Government Debt,Factor Misallocation and Regional Economic Performance in China

This paper examines total factor efficiency and productivity performance by taking into account local government debt (LGD) in 31 Chinese provincial regions for the period 2000–2013. The results show that neglecting LGD may overstate economic performance in Chinese provinces. The eastern region shows better performance in single factor efficiency and total factor efficiency than the non‐eastern regions. The western region shows the worst total factor performance. The north‐eastern region is the only region that has experienced a decline in total factor performance. The state‐dominated, investment‐driven development model may help technological progress across Chinese regions but could lead to significant factor misallocation. We argue that biases towards more state‐dominated investment and land supply in less productive western, central and north‐eastern regions, at the expense of investment and land supply in more productive eastern regions, have contributed to the recent slowdown in economic growth in China. Therefore, further market‐oriented reforms in factor markets should be considered in the future.     

基于高级法的两维评级贷款审批标准

新资本协议框架下,公司暴露的风险加权资产依赖于客户的违约概率和债项的违约损失率。随着内部评级高级法的实施,商业银行将逐步建立和完善客户评级与债项评级体系,用于估算违约概率和违约损失率。本文深入分析了新资本协议的资本要求计算公式,提出以资本要求低于8%为导向、以客户评级和债项评级为基础的贷款两维准入标准。目的是帮助商业银行有效管理资本充足率,以及解决中小企业融资难等问题。     

信用风险缓释工具：产品改造与缓释失效

中国2010年底推出的信用风险缓释工具(CRM)基本沿袭国际通行的CDS产品结构,但对于标的债物条款做了一项改造。现有文献在探讨CRM交易清淡的原因时,均未分析这项产品改造对CRM市场发展的阻碍作用。论文结合信用衍生品的使用方式和国内外相关监管条文,分析这项产品改造对于信用保护范围带来的影响,进而推演CRM和国际通行的CDS在银行贷款风险缓释和资本缓释机制上的差异。研究显示,这项产品改造导致CRM工具的风险缓释和资本缓释两项核心功能同时失效,因而可能是CRM市场发展的真正瓶颈。     

Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach

This study is conducted to investigate the prediction of corporate financial distress based on the Merton (1974) market-based Distance to Default (DD) model over the period from 1997 to 2016 which covers a range of economic financial circumstances, including the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The study focusses on the six largest countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Unlike previous studies which focus mainly on bankruptcy, this paper focusses on early warning distress indicators that signal distress well before bankruptcy. This is when firms experience difficulty in servicing debt as measured by interest coverage ratio (ICR) at a firm level and non-performing loans (NPLs) at a country level. Key empirical findings from this paper indicate that the market-based distance-to-default (DD) model is generally a good early warning indicator of financial distress in the following year, particularly for ICR, but that prediction accuracy varies between individual countries in the Southeast Asian region.     

Default premia on European government debt

Default Premia on European Government Debt. — This paper addresses the question of the existence and size of a risk premium in the Eurobond market. We measure the yield difference between German government bonds and bonds issued in Deutsche Mark by several European countries. The results are regressed against macroeconomic variables supposed to be determinants of the risk of default on government debt. Our yield differences are smaller than those found between US states. However, some of our macroeconomic variables seem to be good predictors of yield differentials. A conclusion is that yield differentials partially are related to risks perceived by market participants.     

北京市保险公估行业发展研究

健康发展的保险市场离不开高效的保险中介市场,保险公估作为国际上三大保险中介之一,在保险承保、理赔以及风险评估等领域发挥着重要的作用。北京作为我国的首都,其保险业的发展一直处于全国前列,但是其保险公估业的发展却落后于上海、广东,甚至落后于深圳这个地级市。本文运用数据对北京保险公估业的发展现状进行了分析,并分析了北京市保险公估业发展中遇到的问题,最后对北京保险公估业的未来发展提出了建议。     

Credit rationing of a Bayesian bank with simple screening technologies

This paper deals with credit rationing in bank loan markets. The bank is assumed to act as a Bayesian statistician to improve its subjective distribution of the default rate and its ability to identify risky loan applicants. Credit rationing arises as a result of profit maximization of the bank, which takes into account the expected amount of overall default as well as loans demanded by identified defaulters who are denied credit. The comparative statics depend, among other things, on the relative size of prior and sample means of the default rate, and on the form of the bank's information cost function.     

债务违约、社会责任与政府支持

转型期中国，地方国有企业作为地区经济发展的一股中坚力量，当其发生债务违约时，作为实际控制人的地方政府究竟是否愿意提供支持，会优先选择哪些企业提供支持，政府的支持行为是否会影响到信贷资源的配置效率呢?为得到验证，文章选取2007-2016年沪深A股地方国有上市企业作为研究样本，实证分析了地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府的支持行为及其对信贷资源配置效率的影响。研究结论表明：第一，地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府会提供更多的"支持"，且支持额度与债务违约额呈显著正相关关系；第二，债务违约前，承担了更多社会责任（环保投资、捐赠以及就业等）的地方国企，在债务违约后可相应地获得更多的地方政府支持；第三，违约企业，尤其是得到更多政府支持的违约企业可获得更多的信贷资源，而其经营业绩却往往更差。由此表明政府干预一定程度上降低了信贷资源配置效率。