Administrative Records and Surveys as Basis for Statistics on International Labour Migration

This paper discusses possible sources for statistics to be used for describing and analysing the number, structure, situation, development and impact of migrant workers. The discussion is focused on key, intrinsic features of the different sources, important for the understanding of their strengths and weaknesses, and draws the reader's attention to features which may tend to undermine the quality of the statistics produced as well as ways in which the impact of such features can be evaluated and, if possible, reduced. This discussion thereby provides concrete illustrations of many of the methodological issues referred to in (Hoffmann, 1995). The paper is organized around three key groups of migrant workers:

• (a) Persons who are arriving in a country to work there, i.e. the inflow of foreign workers;
• (b) Persons who are leaving their country to find work abroad, i.e. the outllow of migrant workers
• (c) Stock of foreign workers in the country.

Definitions of these groups are given in section 2. Sections 3 to 5 review, for each key group, main possible sources of statistics and the extent to which they can cover the group and identify separately important sub-groups. The discussion in each section distinguishes between administrative registrations and statistical surveys, and deals with the capacity of a source to provide estimates of the size of the group, and whether it can provide estimates of the amount of change in the group over time, or at least indications of the direction of such changes. Section 6 outlines problems related to other data quality dimensions, such as frequency and timeliness of the statistics as well as the validity, reliability and consistency of the registration of variables used to describe migrant workers and where they come from. Section 7 presents strategies for the development of statistics on migrant workers based on two model scenarios for “countries” of different geographic circumstances and institutional capacities. Summary recommendations on how to organize cooperation, for the production of statistics on migrant workers, between the relevant agencies and between them and the potential users are proposed in the concluding section. The overall conclusion is that trying to piece together a coherent statistical picture of any of the above key groups is similar to trying to put together a large puzzle based on photographs of a rapidly changing reality, with important pieces missing and many of the available photographs out of focus.     

Learning from Data: Unifying Statistics and Computer Science

Research in the data-oriented areas of computer science is contributing a new wave of theory and tools for learning from data. Some of the research areas complement those in statistics and others overlap. While the research topics of the two fields are not the same, the goals of the research are identical–to enhance theory, methods, models, and systems for the study of data. Unification–close collaboration in research, in teaching, and in applications–would greatly enhance new developments in learning from data.     

Statistics and the Wealth of Nations

The relationship of statistics and national prosperity is not a simple causal one, but some historical examples suggest a persistent association. A number of examples are considered, from the political arithmetic of the seventeenth century to the quality assurance methods of the 1950s, and a few speculative conclusions are offered.     

Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics

The community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.     

Evolution of Statistics in India

This is a brief history of the evolution of official and academic Statistics in India which focuses mainly on the period 1930 to 1960 but traces its origins in antiquity and recent history. We also comment on how Statistics has continued to evolve since the 1960's. This is a history of both institutions and people, who built and shaped them, and of ideas.     

New Pedagogy and New Content: The Case of Statistics

Statistical education now takes place in a new social context. It is influenced by a movement to reform the teaching of the mathematical sciences in general. At the same time, the changing nature of our discipline demands revised content for introductory instruction, and technology strongly influences both what we teach and how we teach. The case for substantial change in statistics instruction is built on strong synergies between content, pedagogy, and technology. Statisticians who teach beginners should become more familiar with research on teaching and learning and with changes in educational technology. The spirit of contemporary introductions to statistics should be very different from the traditional emphasis on lectures and on probability and inference.     

Data Science: an Action Plan for Expanding the Technical Areas of the Field of Statistics

An action plan to enlarge the technical areas of statistics focuses on the data analyst. The plan sets out six technical areas of work for a university department, and advocates a specific allocation of resources devoted to research in each area and to courses in each area. The value of technical work is judged by the extent to which it benefits the data analyst, either directly or indirectly. The plan is also applicable to government research labs and corporate research organizations.     

Proposals for a Minimum Programme for Statistics in Developing Countries

Statistical offices in developing countries are confronted with the challenge of introducing, with limited means, methods and tools ensuring the production of durable statistics satisfying regional, national and international requirements. Taking into account the evolution, over the last years, in the attitude of national authorities, funding partners and statisticians themselves regarding the building up of relevant and durable statistics, the present paper's proposal is to have, in each developing country, a Minimum Programme for Statistics (MPS) and that this programme be centred on four domains: coordination, national accounts, economic and social short term analysis, and dissemination.     

What Makes Business Statistics Special?

Non-specialists might have the feeling that building statistics on businesses is a very simple task: it seems one just has to "add facts". But for survey statisticians, business statistics are extremely complex: great heterogeneity of the universe, definition of the statistical units, difficulty of classifying businesses, quality of the register, variety of accounting standards, sample co-ordination, or reduction of survey burden. This paper argues that the issues raised by business survey methodology are conceptual and not only practical. It describes different aspects of statistical processing and tries to analyse the special features of business statistics.     

Statistics in Business and Industry: Implementation

There are many statistical tools available to be utilized for general business improvement and industrial problem solving. However, there is a wide gap between the tools available and those that are actually used in business and industrial organizations. Thus it is important for statisticians to direct serious attention to bridging this gap if statistics is to be relevant in business and industry. In this paper we look at some ideas for implementing statistical methods in business and industry.     

Official Statistics on ICT in Japan

Taking into account the developments of ICT in recent years, a lot of countries are dealing with the preparation of statistics on ICT. In Japan, the Basic Law on Formation of an Advanced Information and Telecommunications Network Society (Basic Law on IT) was enforced on January 6, 2001, in which the Government is obliged to prepare official statistics related to ICT. In Japan, at least 41 kinds of official statistical surveys, including questions related to ICT, have been conducted in the past five years. Their main purpose, survey items and survey methods are various and different from each other. To grasp the new development in IT as a whole, “IT Indicators in Japan”, which is a new compendium on ICT, was compiled in 2001. Also, “Information and Communications in Japan”, which is a white paper published in 2001, presented basic data on the extent to which IT has permeated the economic activity and people's lives. In addition, the 11th revision of the Japan Standard Industrial Classification (JSIC) was published by the Statistical Standards Department, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT) in March 2002 in response to the change of economy and society including the development of ICT. The Working Group on Indicators for the Information Society of OECD has been working for several years in order to prepare internationally comparable and statistically measurable ICT indicators and related ICT statistics. In this paper, an overview of the present situation of Japanese official statistics related to ICT is given with some analysis. In addition, some problems are raised which should be considered from the viewpoint of the necessity and measurability and so on for the appropriate preparation of ICT indicators and e‐commerce‐related statistics. “IT; Information Technology” and “ICT; Information and Communications Technology” are often used without any distinction. “ICT” is used in this paper except where “IT” is used as a proper noun, as it is considered almost the same as “IT”. The views expressed herein are those of the author, and are not necessarily those of the Statistical Standards Department or any other Japanese government authorities.     

Survey as a Source of Statistics and Factors Affecting the Quality of Survey Statistics

Survey-taking, which normally involves sampling, has become a major data collection vehicle along with other means of obtaining raw data such as administrative systems and systems of special returns. This paper discusses the major aspects that should be addressed in conducting sample surveys. The proper treatment of these aspects is essential in ensuring production of quality statistics.     

赛博空间人的自由意识的二向性研究

赛博空间是建立在物质基础上的由信息、数字构成的"第三空间",标志着人的虚拟化、数字化存在形式。在赛博空间,主体的自由意识既提高又减弱、既增强又退萎,呈现出既分裂又整合的二向发展。目前,必须坚持以人为本、更多强调自由意识的整合,为赛博空间人的自由实践提供一个和谐、安全、规则的生态环境。     

非参数统计视角下的异方差检验设计及其应用

以数据生成过程为导向,探讨了异方差来源的基本类型;依据非参数统计的基本思想,设计了切实可行的Mood方差检验方法与平方秩检验方法,并针对异方差来源类型,分析了相应的检验思路。蒙特卡罗模拟表明,Mood方差检验方法在异方差检验方面具有很高的检验效力;平方秩检验方法在异常经济现象情形下检验效力较低,而在其他情形下检验效力很高。同时,进一步阐释了纠正异方差的基本逻辑。     

波动性产品需求预测的神经网络模型

随着市场竞争的日益激烈,消费者的心里越来越复杂,这样导致了产品的需求的波动性大大增加。这种强波动性的产品需求序列中除了随机性外还存在混沌性,根据混沌理论可知,混沌的短期预测是可行的。为了有效的对这些混沌性进行预测,选择了神经网络作为预测模型,因为神经网络对非线性具有较好逼近能力。在网络结构选择中考虑了混沌序列的嵌入维数,并在隐层中加入了径向基以更好的拟合数据。在针对目前很多企业具有数据库和数据仓库的背景,给出了基于数据挖掘的具体预测方法,并通过实例演示了预测的有效性。     

Women in the Statistics Profession: A Status Report

The mandate of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) is to foster international statistical work and interchange among statisticians and countries. However, women are under-represented in the ISI and this situation is a cause for concern in the Institute and its membership and particularly the ISI Committee on Women in Statistics (CWS). This paper analyses the representation of women in the ISI and in the statistics profession which is low in virtually every country, a pattern of generations. It looks at the diverse realities among countries and regions, and the broader context of women working in the scientific professions.     

中国宏观经济统计数据异常性和波动性特征的计量检验:1953～2001

对于宏观经济统计数据的异常性和波动性进行分析，已成为研究数据质量的最核心内容之一。本文从经济系统的角度运用随机方差扩大模型对我国36个宏观经济时间序列的数据质量进行了全面分析，发现了数据异常及波动的特点和规律。研究结论表明，大部分异常点的出现或多或少都是以聚集成堆的形式出现，它们之间有深刻的内在联系，异常点的出现大多与各种历史因素以及外部冲击有关；几乎所有的原始序列都有显著的偏度，过多的峰度也是明显的，因此它们被显著地拒绝认为服从正态分布；名义序列的特征在更大程度上受到异常点的影响。     

Big Data,Official Statistics and Some Initiatives by the Australian Bureau of Statistics

Official statisticians have been dealing with a diversity of data sources for decades. However, new sources of data in the Big Data domain provide an opportunity to deliver a more efficient and effective statistical service. This paper outlines a number of considerations for the official statistician when deciding whether to embrace a particular new data source in the regular production of official statistics. The principal considerations are relevance, business benefit, and the validity of using the source for official statistics in finite population inferences or analytic inferences. The paper also describes the Big Data Flagship Project of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which has been established to provide the opportunity for the ABS to gain practical experience in assessing the business, statistical, technical, computational and other issues in using Big Data. In addition, ABS participation in national and international activities in this area will help it share experience and knowledge, while collaboration with academics will enable ABS to better acquire the capability to address business problems using the new sources of data as part of the solution.     

数据挖掘技术在经济统计中的应用探索

随着经济的不断发展与壮大,数据挖掘的工作量也越来越大,这直接导致了技术工人在工作中面临的统计数据更加庞大。而在传统的经济数据特点中,数据庞大且质量问题突出,这严重阻碍了工作的进程。传统的统计数据方式还比较落后,没有运用智能性手段深层次地分析处理,以至于数据间的潜在关系没有被开发出来,并且没有被利用到工作中去。论文提出了如何将数据挖掘技术应用在经济统计中,希望可以为广大的工作人员提供支持。