我国制造业PMI、非制造业PMI与经济增长关系的实证研究

当前,国内学者在使用采购经理指数分析预测宏观经济走势时,都偏重于观察制造业PMI变化,而相对忽视了非制造业PMI。本文运用向量自回归模型对2007至2013年我国制造业PMI、非制造业PMI与经济增长之间变动关系进行实证研究,结果表明,非制造业PMI也有着与制造业PMI相类似的预测GDP变化的作用,短期内制造业PMI、非制造业PMI的冲击都会对经济增长造成长期的、同向的变动,非制造业PMI和制造业PMI都是GDP的"晴雨表"。     

PMI召开2010年中国地区R．E．P．伙伴开年大会

2010年3月3日，PMI中国在浙江杭州千岛湖开元度假村召开了“虎啸天下——PMI中国2010R．E．P．开年大会”。本次会议邀请了PMI全球副总裁范思迪先生、国家外国专家局培训中心白继迅主任、PMI中国董事总经理陈永涛先生以及来自全国各地的26家机构的50名代表参与。     

有关提高建筑结构抗震性能的探讨

文章主要探讨了如何提高建筑结构的抗震性能，先是强调选择有利于抗震的场地，接着从结构设计方面介绍了提高建筑物的抗震性能的三点方法，即提高建筑结构的规则性、增强建筑物的刚度及整体性、保证结构的延性能力。     

M型万能杆件架桥机设计制造及其应用

介绍M型万能杆件架桥机的设计原理，技术性能，结构特．董，组装方法和安全措施，结合实例介绍其应用情况。     

磁致伸缩作动器在空间结构主动控制中应用的理论研究

从磁致伸缩材料的定义及性能出发，介绍了磁致伸缩作动器的设计原理及结构模型，阐述并论证了其在模糊控制作用下应用于空间结构主动控制中的可行性。数值结果表明，采用这种方法对减小在地震作用下结构的加速度和位移起到较好的控制效果。     

新型涂料消光剂的研究

纳米SiO2具有硅氧原子之间的共骱键形成的空间交联网格结构，形成了纳米级的孔隙结构。这些具有纳米孔隙的纳米粒子对于涂料具有很强的消光效果。本文制备了一种性能优异的纳米SiO2消光剂，通过与市场同类消光产品的性能对比，证明了本消光剂具有优异的综合性能。     

关于提高高层建筑的抗震性能的设计的探讨

本文探讨了提高高层建筑抗震性能设计的要点,首先介绍了场地的选择原则和方法,接着具体介绍了从提高建筑结构的规则性、增强建筑物的刚度及整体性、保证结构的延性能力等三个方面的设计来提高高层建筑结构的抗震性能。     

中国经济结构现状：现代服务业成新增长点

目前，我国经济结构正在发生深刻变化，新产业、新业态、新产品在分化中孕育、在分化中成长。以现代服务业为代表的第三产业和高新技术产业的快速发展，正加速成为打造中国经济升级版的重要力量。中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心发布的PMI指数显示。     

关于提高高层建筑的抗震性能的设计的探讨

本文探讨了提高高层建筑抗震性能设计的要点,首先介绍了场地的选择原则和方法,接着具体介绍了从提高建筑结构的规则性、增强建筑物的剐度及整体性、保证结构的延性能力等三个方面的设计来提高高层建筑结构的抗震性能.     

从PMI看当前中国经济形势

PMI,即采购经济调查指数.PMI指数直接由对采购经理的问卷调查数据计算汇总得出,不是经济单位的经济统计核算指标.由于数据搜集快捷,月底就可以获得当月数据(一般早于有关经济统计数据半个月至一个月),也不需要对数据进行人为修订,因而PMI指数具有及时性和客观性两大突出特点.在国际上尤其是在发达国家,PMI应用非常普遍,已成为通行的重要经济监测指标体系之一.     

PMIs: Reliable indicators for exports?

Foreign economic activity is a major determinant of export developments. However, foreign GDP figures are published too late to be useful for short‐term forecasting. This paper presents a number of indicators based on the widely available PMI surveys that provide very early signals of foreign activity. Using MIDAS models we analyze the in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance of these and related indicators for two very trade‐exposed countries (Germany and Switzerland). We find that the monthly indicators based on foreign PMIs are strongly correlated with quarterly export growth. The forecast comparison shows that PMI‐based indicators perform very well relative to other benchmark models.     

Is PMI Useful in Quarterly GDP Growth Forecasts for India? An Exploratory Note

This paper examines the relationship between India’s quarterly overall GDP, manufacturing GDP and services GDP and the corresponding monthly data on overall manufacturing and services PMI for the period January 2006 to July 2014. The objective is to see if the two overall PMIs are related to the level and quarterly growth rate of overall GDP and its chosen components. Considering the quarterly time series nature of the data set, the HEGY equation of Hylleberg et al. (J Econom 44:215–238, 1990) extended by adding the PMI variables as exogenous regressors is used as the regression mode to relate a GDP level/growth rate variable to the two overall PMI variables. The results show that the three GDP level variables, but none of the GDP growth rate variables, have significant positive correlation with services PMI, but not with manufacturing PMI. Finally, the marginal effect of services PMI on manufacturing GDP level is found to be the largest, followed by that for overall GDP level and services GDP level.

     

工业增加值与采购经理人指数关系研究

采购经理人指数作为工业的先行性指标,其发展趋势对工业增加值的发展变化趋势具有很好的预测作用。通过ADL模型和ECM模型的综合应用研究,推导建构了关于经理采购人指数与工业增加值之间的关系模型,并基于Eviews6.0软件工具对近年来的实证数据进行分析和检验,可以证明ADL模型对于预测工业增加值具有良好的预测作用。     

国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的重新考察

本文对国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响进行了重新考察。研究发现:国际原油价格通过影响采购经理人指数进而影响中国主要宏观经济变量,采购经理人指数的引入,完善了国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的时序传导机制,从而提高了实证结果的显著性。实证结果显示:国际原油价格上涨对中国消费者价格指数有正向影响,但这一结果并不显著;同时国际原油价格上涨并未改变中国经济增长的总体态势。VEC实证模型的估计结果表明:国际原油价格与中国宏观经济变量之间存在显著的协整关系,而且国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。     

Herding and anchoring in macroeconomic forecasts: the case of the PMI

We test whether analysts display multiple biases in forecasting the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI). We adopt a test that does not require knowledge of the forecaster’s prior information set and is robust to rational clustering, correlated forecast errors and outliers. We find that analysts forecast the PMI poorly and display multiple biases when forecasting. In particular, forecasters anti-herd and anti-anchor. Anti-herding supports a reputation-based notion that forecasters are rewarded not only for forecast accuracy but also for being the best forecast at a single point in time. Anti-anchoring is consistent with forecasters overreacting to private information. The two biases show a strong positive correlation suggesting that the incentives that elicit anti-herding also elicit anti-anchoring behavior. Both biases result in larger absolute errors, although the effect is stronger for anti-herding.     

Final development and validation of the BOMET-QoL questionnaire for assessing quality of life in patients with malignant bone disease due to neoplasia

SUMMARY

This paper describes the final development and validation of the BOMET-QoL questionnaire for assessing health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with malignant bone disease due to neoplasia (MBDN).

An observational prospective study was conducted of 263 patients with MBDN. Sociodemographic and clinical variables, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Scale Index and Pain Management Index (PMI) were gathered. Patients completed the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 and BOMET-QoL questionnaires and the perception of general health status. Both questionnaires were completed again 15 days after the baseline visit by 98 clinically stable patients (Group A), and 3 months and 6 months after the baseline visit by 165 clinically unstable patients (Group B). Prior to validation of the BOMETQoL questionnaire, a factor analysis and psychometric selection of the original items was developed by means of Rasch analysis.

The BOMET-QoL questionnaire consisting of 25 items was reduced to an integrated version of 10 items. Scores on the BOMET-QoL-10 questionnaire were shown to be related to the presence, number and duration of irruptive pain crises, the PMI and the ECOG index (p<0.001), and with changes in the perception of general health status and ECOG index (p<0.01). The internal consistency of the questionnaire and the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were high (Cronbach's α=0.93; ICC =0.97). BOMET-QoL-10 is an easy to manage and valid questionnaire in clinical practice conditions.     

浅析新会计准则下的资产减值准备变革

1998年中国会计准则引入资产减值准备的规定,2000年,财政部颁布的《企业会计制度》和《企业会计准则》将原来的四项资产减值准备扩大成了八项资产减值准备。2006年2月,财政部正式颁布《企业会计准则第8号-资产减值》。资产减值准备的处理已经深入人心。只有完善信息价格市场和资产评估体系,企业各项资产的公允价值和市价才能得到公正合理的反映,让企业资产减值准备的计提有章可循,体现会计核算的公允性和客观性。     

The Overconfident Principles of Economics Student: An Examination of a Metacognitive Skill

Students in a large principles of macroeconomics class were asked to predict their performance on a regularly scheduled midterm examination. The author collected and analyzed data to examine the effect of various demographic characteristics, academic endowments, course preparation, and course performance variables on the accuracy of pretest expectations. A two-equation recursive model was estimated by the author to determine which factors influenced the accuracy of student expectations (predictive calibration). The results indicated that a pervasive degree of overconfidence existed within the sample. Although age and overall academic performance were found to temper overconfidence, students with credit in a previous economics course had a greater probability of reporting overconfident expectations. Overconfidence was found to be associated with lower degrees of predictive calibration. Misjudgments concerning the scope of the midterm were found to lower predictive calibration scores, ceteris paribus. These and other results indicate that unmet student performance expectations may be a root cause for the routinely observed student dissatisfaction within the traditional principles course.     

An evaluation of incentive regulation for electric utilities

This empirical study examines the determinants and impacts of incentive regulations introduced by utility commissions in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Rewards for generating plant utilization and low heat rates were found to have been introduced in states whose firms exhibited relatively high managerial slack (or relatively higher costs). However, the empirical results did not find that the introduction of specific cost component incentives improved overall operating cost performance.     

Long‐term care and pay‐for‐performance programs

Pay‐for‐performance programs are gradually spreading across Asia. This paper builds on the longer experience in the United States to offer lessons for Asia. The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services has introduced several pay‐for‐performance programs since 2012 to encourage hospitals to improve quality of care and reduce costs. Some state Medicaid programs have also introduced pay‐for‐performance for nursing homes. Long‐term care providers play an important role in hospital pay‐for‐performance programs because they can affect the readmission rate and also total episode payments. A good pay‐for‐performance program will focus on improving quality of care that affects health outcomes. In addition, that quality must vary across providers and be measurable. Furthermore, it is important that the measures be reported in a timely way, that both demand and supply respond to the measures, and that the measures be risk adjusted. Empirical data from Medicare beneficiaries in the state of Michigan show that mean episode payments and readmission rates in skilled nursing facilities vary widely and are sensitive to the number of observations. These practical matters create challenges for implementing pay‐for‐performance in practice. There is an extensive literature review of pay‐for‐performance in long‐term care in the United States and in Asia.