超越自我的感觉

2005年,对于中国金融业将是极为关键的一年。在继续推进中国银行、建设银行改革的同时,工商银行和农业银行的股改项目也将启动,中国银行业改革进程将全面提速。作为中国金融业最有影响力、办刊历史最悠久的核心科技期刊,《中国金融电脑》应该怎样调整自己的特色和定位?怎样才能     

The hidden dangers of historical simulation

Many large financial institutions compute the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of their trading portfolios using historical simulation based methods, but the methods’ properties are not well understood. This paper theoretically and empirically examines the historical simulation method, a variant of historical simulation introduced by Boudoukh et al. [Boudoukh, J., Richardson, M., Whitelaw, R., 1998. The best of both worlds, Risk 11(May) 64–67] (BRW), and the filtered historical simulation method (FHS) of Barone-Adesi et al. [Barone-Adesi, G., Bourgoin F., Giannopoulos, K., 1998. Don’t look back. Risk 11(August) 100–104; Barone-Adesi, G., Giannopoulos K., Vosper L., 1999. VaR without correlations for nonlinear portfolios. Journal of Futures Markets 19(April) 583–602]. The historical simulation and BRW methods are both under-responsive to changes in conditional risk; and respond to changes in risk in an asymmetric fashion: measured risk increases when the portfolio experiences large losses, but not when it earns large gains. The FHS method is promising, but its risk estimates are variable in small samples, and its assumption that correlations are constant is violated in large samples. Additional refinements are needed to account for time-varying correlations; and to choose the appropriate length of the historical sample period.     

The very real dangers of executive coaching

A personal coach to help your most promising executives reach their potential--sounds good, doesn't it? But, according to Steven Berglas, executive coaches can make a bad situation worse. Because of their backgrounds and biases, they ignore psychological problems they don't understand. Companies need to consider psychotherapeutic intervention when the symptoms plaguing an executive are stubborn or severe. Executives with issues that require more than coaching come in many shapes and sizes. Consider Rob Bernstein, an executive vice president of sales at an automotive parts distributor. According to the CEO, Bernstein had just the right touch with clients but caused personnel problems inside the company. The last straw came when Bernstein publicly humiliated a mail clerk who had interrupted a meeting to ask someone to sign for a package. At that point, the CEO assigned Tom Davis to coach Bernstein. Davis, a former corporate lawyer, worked with Bernstein for four years. But Davis only exacerbated the problem by teaching Bernstein techniques for "handling" employees--methods that were condescending at best. While Bernstein appeared to be improving, he was in fact getting worse. Bernstein's real problems went undetected, and when his boss left the company, he was picked as the successor. Soon enough, Bernstein was again in trouble, suspected of embezzlement. This time, the CEO didn't call Davis; instead, he turned to the author, a trained psychotherapist, for help. Berglas soon realized that Bernstein had a serious narcissistic personality disorder and executive coaching could not help him. As that tale and others in the article teach us, executives to be coached should at the very least first receive a psychological evaluation. And company leaders should beware that executive coaches given free rein can end up wreaking personnel havoc.     

Debate: The dangers of fiscal illusion

Crime prevention emerged as a separate policy issue in the late 1970s, with rising crime rates, disillusionment with traditional crime control methods and evidence that situational methods could be effective. There have since then been changes in language and approach. Situational crime prevention no longer dominates. The language is of community safety and crime reduction. The focus is on fear of crime and incivilities, as well as crime. Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships now have statutory responsibilities at a local level. While in some ways the circumstances are auspicious for improved, evidence-based policy and practice, they face substantial obstacles.     

The principle of not feeling the boundary for the SABR model

The stochastic alpha–beta–rho (SABR) model is widely used in fixed income and foreign exchange markets as a benchmark. The underlying process may hit zero with a positive probability and therefore an absorbing boundary at zero should be specified to avoid arbitrage opportunities. However, a variety of numerical methods choose to ignore the boundary condition to maintain the tractability. This paper develops a new principle of not feeling the boundary to quantify the impact of this boundary condition on the distribution of underlying prices. It shows that the probability of the SABR hitting zero decays to 0 exponentially as the time horizon shrinks. Applying this principle, we further show that conditional on the volatility process, the distribution of the underlying process can be approximated by that of a time-changed Bessel process with an exponentially negligible error. This discovery provides a theoretical justification for many almost exact simulation algorithms for the SABR model in the literature. Numerical experiments are also presented to support our results.     

圣亚:找回人类最初的家园

圣亚,这个世界上第一座情景式海洋主题公园,它以海洋为主的设计理念,创造了许多"第一",带动了中国海洋水族馆建设热潮,成为了中国海洋与极地主题旅游潮流的引导者。     

谈点参加注会英语测试的感受

我前年通过了CPA的考试,去年参加了CPA英语测试。由于这是中注协第一次进行此类英语测试,既没有考纲、教材、范围,也没有以前年度的试     

基层央行计算机保密工作中的隐患及其对策

1．保密工作中的隐患（1）计算机操作人员保密意识淡薄。一是对计算机安全保密制度学习和领会不够,认为保密工作是保密部门的事,与自己关系不大;二是缺乏保密分级知识,分不清哪些属于保密的信息,哪些数据应该纳入保密范围;三是存在侥幸心理,对保密信息的重要性认识不足,认为在基层行工作,即便出现失密、泄密问题,也不会造成重大影响和损失。     

法律真空的冒险游戏

"我们系学习房地产资产证券化的学生已经毕业三届了,房地产产业投资基金的政策仍未出台.现在看来,拖来拖去又要到明年了."在日前结束的第五届科博会"2002经济运行与房地产走势"论坛上,北京大学首都发展研究院副院长何小锋很不客气地说.不仅是何小锋,与会的其他房地产、金融行业人士也纷纷抱怨房地产投资基金的政策障碍,呼吁政府尽快出台相关法律.     

With friends like these: the art of managing complementors

Intel and Microsoft neither buy from nor sell to each other directly, but they are undeniably in business together. They are probably the world's most widely known pair of complementors--companies that independently provide complementary products or services to mutual customers. Complementors increase the value of each other's offerings and the size of the total market. So it's not surprising that so many just assume that their interests are aligned. Nothing could be further from the truth. Discord can develop in many areas, such as pricing, technology, standards, and control of the market--both in terms of which company has the most influence over customers and which one gets the biggest slice of the pie. The issue of pricing perfectly captures this tension. Ideally, you'd like to price your goods high while your complementors price theirs low. Airlines, for instance, would be happy to see vacation lodgings go for a song, while destination resorts could raise rates and still fill their rooms if customers could fly there for free. The first step in managing relationships with complementors is to develop a deep understanding of their economics, their strategies and goals, their existing capabilities, their incentives for cooperation, and any potential areas of conflict. Then, to gain the upper hand, companies can use a variety of tools that fall into two main categories: hard power (inducements or coercion to get what you want) and soft power (persuasion through indirect means to get others to want what you want). The authors explain how to build both hard power and soft, illustrate the strengths and limits of each, and offer guidelines for choosing one over the other. Conflict among complementors is inevitable, but together, hard and soft power can help companies manage the dark side of complementor relationships and take full advantage of the opportunities that cooperation should create.     

Testing the risk as feeling and risk as analysis perspective for insurance: the antecedents of purchasing unit-linked life insurance products

Risk and uncertainty are critical to human decision-making. Yet our understanding of the underlying traits that present the foundation of decision-making remains limited. The work develops a causal model of the antecedents of consumers’ purchase behavior in the context of unit-linked life insurance products. Our experimental approach (n?=?929) builds on the risk as analysis and risk as feeling perspective, which entails huge theoretical and practical contributions. Risk avoidance and uncertainty avoidance are identified to strongly influence the product perceptions. We complement our findings by investigating the conditions that favor the influence of both traits by investigating moderating effects.     

The tests of a prince

When a CEO takes office, stakeholders dissect his or her intellectual, physical, and emotional capacities as they try to gauge whether the new leader will help them fulfill their aspirations and protect them from trouble. For the heir to a family business, the challenge of turning stakeholders into followers is particularly thorny: He or she must manage many constituencies--family members, directors, senior executives, investors, trade unions--that may not be convinced the successor has earned the right to hold the top spot. Making matters worse, says Lansberg, a family business expert, corporate scions usually ignore or greatly underestimate stakeholders. They don't realize that, particularly after they are formally anointed as CEOs, they must establish their credibility with and authority over these spheres of influence. Smart CEOs understand that their success depends on how well they respond to the iterative testing process that stakeholders use to make judgments about would-be leaders. This article offers a road map for managing the four kinds of tests that constitute iterative testing: Qualifying tests are assessments based on criteria--such as formal education, work experience, and professional awards--that executives can cite as evidence of suitability for the top job. Self-imposed tests are expectations that leaders themselves set and against which they assume stakeholders will measure their performance. Circumstantial tests are unplanned challenges or crises, during which stakeholders can observe the leader coping with the unexpected. And political tests are challenges from rivals who want to enhance their own influence, often by undermining the leader.     

As you like it: Explaining the popularity of life‐cycle funds with multi cumulative prospect theory

Life‐cycle (or target‐date) funds are funds, which typically decrease their risk exposure over time. They have been very successful in many countries, particularly in the segment of old age provision. However, Expected Utility Theory (EUT) cannot explain their popularity. Moreover, recent results of Graf (2016), imply that not only EUT but also its behavioral counterpart Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is often not able to explain the popularity of these products, since for each life‐cycle fund a corresponding balanced fund can be constructed, which is preferable from the investor's perspective in most circumstances. In a recent paper, Ruß and Schelling (2018), have argued that potential future changes in an investment's value already impact the decision of long‐term investors at outset. Based on this, they have introduced Multi Cumulative Prospect Theory (MCPT), which is based on CPT and considers the subjective utility generated by annual value changes. This paper shows that for MCPT‐investors, life‐cycle funds are typically more attractive than their corresponding balanced funds since they reduce the potential losses toward the end of the investment horizon. Hence, our findings provide an explanation for inferior decisions in old age provision. This can serve as a basis to improve such decisions.     

The choice of a monetary instrument in a small open economy: The case of Korea

Using a small macroeconometric model of Korea, this paper evaluates the correct choice of a monetary instrument (either the money stock or the interest rate), the optimal multiperiod policy, and the value of current information on some monetary varialbles.     

The five minds of a manager

Managers are told: Be global and be local. Collaborate and compete. Change, perpetually, and maintain order. Make the numbers while nurturing your people. To be effective, managers need to consider the juxtapositions in order to arrive at a deep integration of these seemingly contradictory concerns. That means they must focus not only on what they have to accomplish but also on how they have to think. When the authors, respectively the director of the Centre for Leadership Studies at the University of Exeter in the U.K. and the Cleghorn Professor of Management Studies at McGill University in Montreal, set out to develop a masters program for practicing managers, they saw that they could not rely on the usual MBA educational structure, which divides the management world into discrete business functions such as marketing and accounting. They needed an educational structure that would encourage synthesis rather than separation. Managing, they determined, involves five tasks, each with its own mind-set: managing the self (the reflective mind-set); managing organizations (the analytic mind-set); managing context (the worldly mind-set); managing relationships (the collaborative mind-set); and managing change (the action mind-set). The program is built on the exploration and integration of those five aspects of the managerial mind. The authors say it has proved powerful in the classroom and insightful in practice. Imagine the mind-sets as threads and the manager as weaver. Effective performance means weaving each mind-set over and under the others to create a fine, sturdy cloth.     

论着力构建学习型银行

学习型组织管理理论是知识经济时代的产物，它与传统的企业管理理论的本质区别是强调以创新求效益、以知识为资本、以人的全面发展为目标，提出通过强化自我超越、改善心智模式、建立共同远影、团队学习、系统思考等五个方面的修炼，使员工形成科学的思考方法，善于自我管理和沟通，从而大大提高员工个人和企业的创造力。该理论的代表作是美国麻省理工学院教授彼得&;#183;圣吉《第五项修炼－学习型组织的艺术与实务》。     

The making of a corporate athlete

Management theorists have long sought to identify precisely what makes some people flourish under pressure and others fold. But they have come up with only partial answers: rich material rewards, the right culture, management by objectives. The problem with most approaches is that they deal with people only from the neck up, connecting high performance primarily with cognitive capacity. Authors Loehr and Schwartz argue that a successful approach to sustained high performance must consider the person as a whole. Executives are, in effect, "corporate athletes." If they are to perform at high levels over the long haul, they must train in the systematic, multilevel way that athletes do. Rooted in two decades of work with world-class atheletes, the integrated theory of performance management addresses the body, the emotions, the mind, and the spirit through a model the authors call the performance pyramid. At its foundation is physical well-being. Above that rest emotional health, then mental acuity, and, finally, a spiritual purpose. Each level profoundly influences the others, and all must be addressed together to avoid compromising performance. Rigorous exercise, for instance, can produce a sense of emotional well-being, clearing the way for peak mental performance. Rituals that promote oscillation--the rhythmic expenditure and recovery of energy-link the levels of the pyramid and lead to the ideal performance state. The authors offer case studies of executives who have used the model to increase professional performance and improve the quality of their lives. In a corporate environment that is changing at warp speed, performing consistently at high levels is more necessary than ever. Companies can't afford to address employees' cognitive capacities while ignoring their physical, emotional, and spiritual well-being.     

谈图书馆知识管理

知识管理是知识经济时代一种全新的管理概念与管理方法.图书馆知识管理的内容包括知识创新管理、知识组织与传播管理、知识应用管理、知识营销管理和人力资源管理.图书馆知识管理的实现有赖于对传统管理体制、服务模式进行深刻变革,充分利用现代信息技术,提高图书馆人员素质.     

The calling of a creative transdisciplinarity

A relational approach to the problem of interdisciplinary studies is presented and arguments made for rethinking our disciplinary identity from our experiential and aspirational vantage point of transdiciplinary participation. But transdisciplinary participation requires overcoming our disciplinary chauvinism and an openness to the perspectives of other disciplines. In transdisciplinary participation, the other perspective, the other disciplines, need recognition and invitation into the hard core of the disciplinary self and for this the method and weltanschauung of the conventional interdisciplinary research is not enough. Interdisciplinary research now calls for a transdiciplinary interrogation, opening and enrichment which transforms the pious hopes and waiting for interdisciplinarity into a calling of transdiciplinary striving.