中国服务业发展的驱动力：基于产业关联视角的实证检验——兼论“后金融危机”时代中国服务业发展的战略选择

服务业发展的驱动力决定服务业发展的质量和效率。本文基于产业关联视角实证检验了中国服务业发展的驱动力,结果发现中国服务业同农业和制造业的外部产业关联良性交互关系还没有很好的形成,这主要表现在中国制造业和农业发展对服务业发展的引致效果较微弱,而且制造业产出对服务业产出的引致呈现出均质性特征,特别是没有形成对生产性服务的大量引致性需求。因此,转变服务业的发展方式,提高生产性服务业同本土制造业和农业的产业关联程度,促进制造业和农业的产业升级,是“后金融危机”时代我国现代服务业发展的重要战略目标。     

Innovation and productivity in manufacturing and service firms in Catalonia: a regional approach

This article analyses the determinants of research and development (R&D) and the role of innovation on labour productivity in Catalan firms. Our empirical analysis found a considerable heterogeneity in firm performances between the manufacturing and service industries and between low- and high-tech industries. The frontiers that separate manufacturing and service industries are increasingly blurred. In Catalonia high-tech knowledge-intensive services (KIS) play a strategic role in promoting innovation in both manufacturing and service industries, and driving growth throughout the regional economy. Empirical results show new firms created during the period 2002–2004 that have a greater R&D intensity than incumbent firms (54.1% in high-tech manufacturing industries and 68.8% in high-tech KIS). Small and young firms in the high-tech KIS sector are very prone to carrying out R&D and they invest more in innovation projects. R&D expenditures, output innovation, investment in physical capital, market share and export have positive effects on labour productivity in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Firm size, on the other hand, has a positive effect on productivity in manufacturing industries but not in services.     

Estimating demand curve in the Korean VoIP telecommunications market

The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market.     

科技推广服务业对区域创新效率的影响——以东部三大城市群为例

基于2010—2019年我国东部三大城市群面板数据,运用面板回归、中介效应与门槛模型考察科技推广服务业对东部三大城市群创新效率的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明：东部三大城市群创新效率呈逐年提升态势,且京津冀城市群创新效率与长三角、珠三角城市群存在较大差距;科技推广服务业不仅有助于直接提升东部三大城市群创新效率,还能通过促进产业结构升级间接驱动区域创新效率提升;科技推广服务业对东部三大城市群创新效率的影响存在区域异质性;科技推广服务业对拥有不同创新能力或处于不同经济发展阶段的城市具有异质性作用。     

Sectoral Patterns Of Technological Change In Services

This article provides a comprehensive picture of the characteristics of innovation in services, using the results of the 1993–95 Italian innovation survey in services. Technological change does play a role in services: around one third of service firms have introduced a technological innovation in the period 1993–95. Process innovation, innovative investment and the acquisition and internal development of software represent the most important channels through which service firms innovate. R&D activities represent an important innovation source only for a small number of science and technology-based service industries. The sectoral analysis highlights the variety of innovative patterns, which should discourage any simple generalization about innovation in services. Accordingly, a sectoral taxonomy is proposed in which service industries are clustered according to the overall innovative performance of firms, the nature of the innovation activities carried out, the different knowledge bases underlying the innovation processes, and the different patterns of interaction through which service firms innovate.     

中国服务业分行业生产率变迁及异质性考察

本文采用全国两次经济普查后的修订数据,引入"技术不会遗忘"假定,运用序列DEA-Malmquist生产率指数法测算了1990—2010年中国服务业细分行业的全要素生产率(TFP)、技术进步、纯技术效率与规模效率增长率。结果表明,中国服务业总体及细分行业的TFP均处于上升通道,在上世纪90年代,服务业TFP增长的主导因素是技术效率改进,进入21世纪后,则主要是技术进步提高,且技术效率改进已开始由以纯技术效率为主转向以规模效率为主,但服务业发展的粗放型特征仍然明显。同时,中国服务业TFP增长表现出了较大的行业异质性;与工业(制造业)行业对比,服务业TFP增长是滞后的。2010年与1991年相比,TFP及技术效率增长的行业间异质程度有所下降,而技术进步却有进一步拉大的迹象。可能的内在机制是现代信息技术对不同服务业企业资源配置的异质影响,以及中国服务业体制改革的渐进式道路。     

Innovation in the Service Sector Results from the Italian Statistical Survey

This acticle provides fresh empirical evidence on the relevance and nature of innovation activities in the service sector. The evidence can be summarized as follows: Technological innovation is quite a diffused phenomenon in market services: more than one-third of surveyed firms have introduced technological innovations during the period 1993–95. The amount of financial resources devoted to innovation varies widely across service sectors. Financial, computing and software, engineering, and telecommunication services are the most innovative service sectors. Most service firms can distinguish between innovations in services and in processes. Process innovation emerges as the most diffused typology. Service firms rely on a wide range of innovation sources. The acquisition and development of software and investment in machinery are the most cited. Investment, R&D, and software are the major components of firms’ innovation expenditure. Major obstacles for introducing technological innovation are of an economic nature, that is, cost and risk too high. The two most important objectives of firms’ innovation strategies consist of improving service quality and reducing cost. Technological information is drawn mainly from in-house production departments as well as from outside suppliers of equipment, materials, and components. Public and private research institutions as well as patents and licenses play a very marginal role. Finally, in the near future the importance of technology for firms’ performance is expected to increase in service industries.     

Internet Economics and Policy: An Australian Perspective

Publicly available information indicates that the demand and supply of Internet and Internet–related services are continuing to expand at a rapid pace. Since 1997 the number of Internet service providers (facilities–based and resellers) has increased by nearly 40 per cent; the number of points–of–presence per Internet service provider has increased by five times; the number of hosts connected to the Internet has more than quadrupled; and Internet traffic has increased from six to 10 times. The emergence of electronic commerce (e–commerce), driven by this rapid adoption of Internet services and continual technological innovation, is likely to have profound economic and social impacts on Australian society. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the impact of the Internet and e–commerce, ranging from the changes in the market structure of the telecommunications industry, its role in changing the organisation of traditional markets, the emergence of new markets, and the structural shifts to employment, productivity and trade. The paper also analyses contemporary Australian regulatory responses.     

INTERCONNECTION AGREEMENT BETWEEN INTERNET SERVICE PROVIDERS AND THE OPTIMAL POLICY INTERVENTION: THE CASE OF COURNOT‐TYPE COMPETITION UNDER NETWORK EXTERNALITIES*

We derive the optimal subsidy policy for an interconnection agreement between two symmetric Internet service providers (ISPs) competing á la Cournot in a network service market. The interconnection quality agreed upon is lower than the socially optimal level, as suggested by Crémer et al. (2000 ). In the basic model where both ISPs compete in the domestic market, the optimal investment subsidy rate depends positively on the strength of network externalities. In the extended model where home and foreign ISPs compete in the home market, the optimal subsidy rate for the home government is higher than in the basic model.     

Knowledge matching in the technology outsourcing context of online innovation intermediaries

This paper focuses on innovation matchmaking by online innovation intermediaries that operate as technology outsourcing services. These services connect employers wishing to commission individuals to complete technical activities to individuals with knowledge to undertake the project. We present three new metrics based on the statistical mechanics of complex networks to assess forms of knowledge matches between the knowledge required by employers’ projects and the knowledge offered by service providers. Based upon the results, we identify several challenges open innovation intermediaries, employers, and providers face: structuring knowledge to identify providers who can provide solutions beyond the immediate exigencies of the problem, choosing a provider among many potential matches, and choosing an online innovation intermediary when several suitable alternatives exist. The metrics provide insight into potential solutions to these challenges. We conclude with recommendations to improve the service offerings of online innovation intermediaries.     

The Impact of Innovation on Employment in Services: Evidence from Italy

This article investigates the employment impact of innovation in services, using the data gathered through the 1993-95 Italian innovation survey. The empirical evidence shows that the impact of innovation on employment varies greatly across industries and according to the level of qualification of the labour force. Among small firms and in less than a half of the service sectors considered, the employment impact of innovation is positive, particularly in industries that have a strong scientific and technological base. A negative impact of innovation on employment is, on the contrary, found among large firms, capital-intensive industries and in all financial-related sectors (banking, insurance and other financial services). In these industries the labour-saving effect of innovation seems to be linked to the widespread use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) which displace the least qualified employees. In the case of Italy, an overall negative impact of innovation on employment is found. It is argued that this result is affected by the Italian economy's specialisation in the most traditional service industries.     

Misallocation and productivity in the lead up to the Eurozone crisis

We use Portuguese firm-level data to investigate whether changes in resource misallocation may have contributed to the poor economic performance of some southern and peripheral European countries leading up to the Eurozone crisis. We extend Hsieh and Klenow’s (2009) methodology to include intermediate inputs and consider all sectors of the economy (agriculture, manufacturing, and services). We find that within-industry misallocation almost doubled between 1996 and 2011. Equalizing total factor revenue productivity across firms within an industry could have boosted valued-added 48% and 79% above actual levels in 1996 and 2011, respectively. This implies that deteriorating allocative efficiency may have shaved around 1.3 percentage points off the annual GDP growth during the 1996–2011 period. Allocative efficiency deterioration, despite being a widespread phenomenon, is significantly higher in the service sector, with 5 industries accounting for 72% of the total variation. Capital distortions are the most important source of potential value-added efficiency gains, especially in the service sector, with a relative contribution increasing over time.     

The evolution of Internet interconnection from hierarchy to “Mesh”: Implications for government regulation

The Internet has evolved from a “hierarchy”—in which interconnection was achieved by having Internet Service Providers (ISPs) purchase transit services from top-level backbones and top-level backbone providers engage in direct settlement-free peering—to a “mesh” in which peering occurs among a much larger number of participants and some peering arrangements involve payments from one peer to another. In this new environment, backbone providers, ISPs, and suppliers of content have a far wider array of interconnection alternatives, both technical and financial, than they did only a short time ago. As is often the case, the introduction of new alternatives and contractual arrangements has led to calls to regulate which alternatives and arrangements are acceptable. In this paper, we explain why such regulation would be harmful, as it would (i) reduce the incentives of industry participants to minimize total costs; (ii) lead to higher access prices to end users; (iii) result in prices that do not adequately reflect costs; and (iv) create regulatory inefficiencies. We also explain why the alternative interconnection arrangements to which Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) (and their content provider clients) and ISPs generally have access already impose limits on the exercise of market power, thus obviating any need for regulation.     

Demand and innovation in productivity growth

The labour productivity impact of demand and innovation is investigated in this paper combining insights from the Kaldorian and Schumpeterian traditions. After a review of studies in such traditions, a general model is proposed for explaining productivity growth in European manufacturing and service industries in the late 1990s, followed by two distinct specifications for the industries oriented toward product innovation, and for those where process innovation dominates. The empirical analysis is based on the match of the SIEPI‐CIS2 database developed at the University of Urbino and Eurostat Input–Output Tables at the industry level, for 22 manufacturing sectors and 10 services sectors. Six European countries are considered: Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The results show that productivity growth in European industries can be explained by a combination of technology factors and demand dynamics, confirming the complementarity of technology and demand effects. On the demand side, household consumption emerges as the most pervasive component of demand, able to stimulate greater efficiency in all manufacturing and service industries. Investment also has a role, focused however on the capital goods producing industries. On the technology side, the mechanisms of productivity growth are fundamentally different in the industries oriented towards product innovation and in those dominated by process innovation. This evidence supports the view that innovation in firms and industries can be associated to two contrasting strategies, searching either for technological competitiveness, through knowledge generation, product innovation and expansion of new markets, or aiming at greater cost competitiveness, through job reductions, labour saving investment, flexibility and restructuring.     

数字技术发展促进制造业与服务业融合了吗

结合数字技术特性,以制造业与服务业融合为视角构建理论分析框架,从理论和实证两方面深入分析数字技术对制造业与服务业融合的影响机制及作用特点。在测度2012—2019年中国214个地级城市数字技术发展水平和产业融合程度基础上,探讨数字技术发展对制造业与服务业融合的促进作用及其内在驱动机制。结果表明,数字技术水平提升会显著促进制造业与服务业融合发展,在考虑模型内生性问题并利用工具变量法解决后,上述结论仍然成立;数字技术的作用强度具有区域异质性,且东北地区＞西部地区＞东部地区＞中部地区,在非技术密集地区的作用效果更加显著;数字技术通过技术进步和信息平台两种方式并以技术创新效应与市场需求效应为传导机制影响制造业与服务业融合。结论有助于厘清数字技术作用于制造业与服务业融合的内在机理,深化对产业融合机制和地区异质性的理解,拓展数字技术在产业应用中的研究。     

上海加快文化科技创新融合的对策研究

文化科技创新融合表现在三个层面:科技进步提升公共文化服务能力及促进文化产业发展;文化创意源泉通过开源和合作平台开发技术,加速科技创新的进程、促进科技服务产业转型;文化与科技的双向互动带动新业态出现。在此背景下,上海应结合文化科技创新融合发展的优势与不足,通过研发整合、推广关键技术应用、创新服务与商业模式等方式,全方位对上海文化科技产业进行布局,实现文化科技创新融合重点领域突破,协助上海的各产业领域保持创新、持续因应环境变迁而转型。     

“互联网+”对工业高质量发展的影响——基于面板中介效应模型的估计

基于静态面板模型、动态面板模型、中介效应模型,采用2008—2017年省级面板数据实证分析“互联网+”对工业高质量发展的影响。结果表明,“互联网+”在5%的水平上对工业高质量发展有显著正向效应。由中介效应模型研究结果可知,“互联网+”既可以通过推动科技创新促进工业高质量发展,也可以通过绿色发展这一传导机制推动工业高质量发展。通过工具变量法进行稳健性检验,实证结果依然成立。据此,建议加强“互联网+”的普及和应用;推进以市场为导向、企业为主体的产学研协同创新体系建设;促进工业企业规模化集聚化发展;促进工业企业绿色可持续发展。     

我国高技术服务业研发机构科技创新效率评价

构建了高技术服务业研发机构科技创新效率评价指标体系。利用2010—2011年我国高技术服务业7个细分行业研发机构的科技创新活动数据,运用数据包络分析法,测度了2010—2011年我国高技术服务业7个细分行业研发机构的科技创新效率,比较了各细分行业研发机构的科技创新效率差异,并分析其原因。进而利用理想点模型,对2010—2011年我国高技术服务业研发机构的科技创新效率进行了排名。研究结果显示:我国高技术服务业研发机构的科技创新效率总体良好,但行业差异较大。最后,提出促进我国高技术服务业发展的对策建议。     

数字经济发展与高技术产业创新效率提升——基于中国省级面板数据的实证检验

以数字经济拓展实体经济发展空间，是实现传统经济模式向智能化模式转变、数量型增长模式向质量型增长模式转变的重要手段。采用2013—2019年中国内地30个省域面板数据，在对数字经济发展水平和高技术产业创新效率进行测度分析的基础上，实证检验数字经济对高技术产业创新效率的影响效应。结果表明，数字经济发展能够有效提升高技术产业创新效率，但随着时间推移，影响效应趋于减弱；数字经济发展会强化企业家精神和产业结构升级对高技术产业创新效率提升的边际效应；数字经济发展对高技术产业创新效率的影响存在显著的区域和行业异质性，东西部地区数字经济发展更能有效促进高技术产业创新效率提升，数字经济发展对电子及通信设备制造业创新效率的提升作用更加显著。基于此，提出大力发展数字经济、培育企业家精神、加大研发投入力度、促进区域协调发展等建议。     

创新环境约束下高技术产业区域创新效率及收敛性研究

以各地区高技术产业为样本,应用超越对数随机前沿模型实证测算了创新环境约束下各地高技术产业基础研发和成果转化创新效率,并基于σ收敛、β收敛以及俱乐部收敛3种判别方法,考察了高技术产业基础研发效率和成果转化效率的收敛性特征。研究发现,2000-2014年我国创新环境对区域高技术产业的影响不可小觑,在其约束下高技术产业基础研发效率不断提升,呈现出东西较高、中北较低的分布态势且出现收敛特征;在应用效率方面,各地区成果转化效率大致划分为2000-2007年的缓慢增长期与2008-2014年的缓慢衰退期两个阶段,具有东高西低、南高北低的分布态势且趋于发散。