共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Paolo Piacentini Stefano Prezioso Giuseppina Testa 《International Review of Applied Economics》2016,30(6):747-770
This paper contributes to a growing body of work within ‘fiscal policy studies,’ investigating the recent role of fiscal policy on the Italian economy. Using annual data collected on a regional basis, this study estimates and compares the (impact and cumulative) fiscal multipliers across the North and the South—the less developed area—of Italy. With recourse to a simultaneous equation model for the two macro-areas of Italy, it estimates the overall impact of the measures of budget consolidation policies during the period 2011–2013. Our analysis reveals that tax increases and, with a greater impact, spending cuts, hit the South harder compared to the North. 相似文献
2.
Most of the discussion about fiscal stimulus focuses on the multiplier of government spending on impact. In this paper we shift the focus to the multiplier at the end, i.e., to the period in which a deficit spending program terminates. We show that recent time‐series analyses and neoclassical as well new Keynesian business cycle models predict that the multiplier turns negative before spending expires. This means that aggregate output at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it could be without deficit spending. Here, we show why this phenomenon is a general outcome of mainstream business cycle theory and explain the underlying mechanism. Using phase diagram analysis, we prove that the aggregate capital stock at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it would be without a deficit spending program. This fact explains why aggregate output is below its laissez faire level as well. 相似文献
3.
We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import taxes) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2000Q1-2016Q4), in order to understand how the values can vary according to the public debt level, the pace of economic growth, and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks, the results showed that government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.44, whereas tax multipliers presented negative signs: the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at ?0.11 and ?0.55, respectively. Furthermore, the spending multiplier showed a higher value for countries with lower levels of public debt, during recessions, and in countries with negative output gaps. On the other hand, tax shocks seemed to be recessive in highly indebted countries and those facing positive output gaps. 相似文献
4.
Magda ElSayed Kandil 《Applied economics》2013,45(35):4894-4927
Government spending has often varied with the business cycle to stimulate the economy and to revive economic conditions. However, the state of public finances has often necessitated higher borrowing to finance widening fiscal deficits. Indeed, recent austerity packages around the globe have crystalized the importance of fiscal consolidation against the backdrop of rising public debt. To shed light on recent debates regarding fiscal multipliers, the article estimates variation in these multipliers with the method of financing, using annual data for a sample of industrial countries. There is a large variation in the effects of expansionary and contractinary government spending shocks on economic variables within and across countries. The significant effects of negative government spending shocks (fiscal contraction) appear more prevalent than those of expansionary shocks on real output growth, price inflation and nominal wage inflation. Consistent with theory’s predictions, the fiscal multiplier is more likely to be negative when government spending is financed by issuing debt and less likely in the case of monetization. The evidence confirms concerns about the negative effect of higher debt and more expensive financing on private activity, countering the effectiveness of fiscal policy. 相似文献
5.
In this article, we take account of an evaluation of the short- and medium-term effects of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries and their dependence on the state of the economy and fiscal behaviour. Our findings indicate that (i) across EU member states the impact of government spending on economic performance is larger in the accession than in core member states, (ii) since the onset of the economic/financial crisis the government spending multipliers have become larger in both core and accession EU member states, and (iii) a comparison with fiscal responses in the OECD countries shows robustness of our estimates. The conclusion implies that the austerity measures present a substantial drag for economic activity in accession EU countries. Thus, we may state that not considering the fiscal behaviour and state of the economy gives misleading fiscal multiplier effects, which in turn lead to the adoption of inappropriate fiscal measures that even worsen a country's economic situation. 相似文献
6.
Dr. Mallick Sushanta K. 《International economic journal》2013,27(1):115-139
This paper examines the impact of several macroeconomic policies, both demand and supply management policies, on economic activity within a small macroeconomic simulation model. The model is based on a standard analytical framework that underlies adjustment policies in developing economies (Des). The standard approach has been to use aggregate government expenditure as an instrument of fiscal policy to shock economic activity in a DE, with a negative dynamic response typically observed. In the context of such a small macroeconomic simulation model we decompose government expenditure into consumption and investment expenditure. Simulation exercises with and without model-consistent expectations throw up some contrasting results in the sense that fiscal policy can influence output positively through the effects of public sector investment on private investment in a DE such as India. [F43, E62] 相似文献
7.
This paper analyzes whether fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies or smoothens business cycle fluctuations. It estimates several econometric models to explore the cyclicality of government spending and tax buoyancy. In South Asia, tax revenue increases less than one to one with changes in gross domestic product (GDP), but public spending increases more than proportionally. For each percentage point change in GDP growth, government expenditure changes by 1.3 percentage points. While changes in tax revenue have no significant impact on economic activity, the government spending multiplier is positive and significant: each additional US dollar (USD) of spending leads to an immediate increase in GDP of 0.2 USD and to an increase of 0.4 USD in the medium run. The impact of public spending on economic activity is entirely due to capital expenditure, which is also more procyclical. Procyclical public spending and a positive expenditure multiplier imply that fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies boom‐and‐bust cycles. These results are in line with those of other emerging markets and developing economies and robust to different model specifications and estimation strategies. 相似文献
8.
Stuart Baumann 《The Scandinavian journal of economics》2019,121(2):706-735
Many governments around the world exhibit heightened spending at the end of the fiscal year. These end of fiscal year spending spikes often concern policy makers due to their tendency to result in lower quality spending. This paper uses UK data to offer evidence against the precautionary savings explanation for spending spikes. An alternative explanation is offered with procrastination driving heightened end of fiscal year spending. A new technique of time‐variant budgetary taxes is calibrated to the model, and it is shown to be effective for smoothing spending and improving spending efficiency throughout the fiscal year. 相似文献
9.
Klaus Gründler 《Applied economics letters》2018,25(15):1045-1050
This article contributes to the debate on how to properly identify exogenous fiscal shocks in the data. We include expectations held by consumers and firms into the standard vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on information from historical issues of the German political magazine Der Spiegel. The findings underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of the effects of government spending. When neglecting anticipation effects, our results support the recent findings for Germany by pointing to a rather positive effect of government spending on GDP. However, inclusion of expectations yields a change in this effect, suggesting that government spending is much less beneficial for GDP, as it crowds out private consumption and investment. 相似文献
10.
11.
This paper considers the role of fiscal equalization in maintaining fiscal balance. It employs a large panel of German municipalities in order to investigate the dynamic fiscal policy adjustment using a vector-error–correction model that explicitly takes account of the intertemporal budget constraint. The results confirm that a substantial part of fiscal adjustment to revenue shocks takes place by offsetting changes in intergovernmental transfers: in present-value terms about 34 cents of a permanent 1 € decrease in own revenues are compensated by subsequent changes in fiscal-equalization transfers. Hence, the contribution of intergovernmental transfers in maintaining fiscal balance is found to be two to three times larger than in the case of US municipalities investigated by Buettner and Wildasin [Buettner, T., Wildasin, D.E., 2006. The dynamics of municipal fiscal adjustment. Journal of Public Economics 90, 1115–1132]. Despite fiscal equalization, however, expenditures are not found to display smaller fluctuations in the German case. 相似文献
12.
We estimate the impact of the fiscal consolidation actions in the Euro Area between 2011 and 2013 on output and public finances. We identify the discretionary fiscal consolidation effort based on new data by the European Commission. We combine these data with robust estimates from a rich meta-regression analysis on multipliers for various fiscal measures under different business cycle regimes. The frontloaded consolidation came at a considerable cost with an output loss of 7.7% and only a small gain to the primary balance of 0.2% of GDP. Backloading would have been much less costly due to lower multipliers. 相似文献
13.
Branimir Jovanovic 《International Review of Applied Economics》2017,31(1):83-107
We compare government investment and consumption multipliers in developed economies during the initial years of the ongoing fiscal consolidation. We find that, in countries with high public debt, the investment multiplier is likely to be higher than what has been assumed by policy-makers and higher than the consumption multiplier. This leads to the conclusion that the consolidation should be accompanied by increased public investment. 相似文献
14.
Sebastian Garmann 《Applied economics》2013,45(36):4490-4507
Proportional election systems are widespread across countries and often lead to coalition governments. This creates interest in how the form of government (single-party or coalition governments) causally influences fiscal policies. It is difficult to estimate this causal effect empirically because the form of government is not randomly assigned to political units. I overcome this problem by using a Regression Kink Design which exploits that there is a slope change in the treatment probability at the 50% vote share of the strongest party. This method is applied to a large panel data set of German local governments. I find that contrary to the theoretical prediction, coalition governments significantly decrease expenditures. 相似文献
15.
Kenya's fiscal policy landscape is characterized by primary deficit spending forcing the government to rely on debt to meet its objectives. The justification often being that as a developing economy, annual growth rates and future prospects may in the short run justify the uptake of debt to finance infrastructural development. However, given potential fiscal limits, fiscal cycles usually alternates between sustainable and unsustainable regimes and this has a bearing on long run sustainability. This study therefore sought to investigate the nature of fiscal policy regime in Kenya and the extent to which fiscal policy is sustainable in the long run taking into account periodic regime shifts. Markov switching models were used to endogenously determine fiscal policy regimes. Regime switching tests were used to test whether No-Ponzi game condition and debt stabilizing condition were met. The results established that regime switching model was suitable in explaining regime sustainable and unsustainable cycles. An investigation of fiscal policy regimes established that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes were dominant, and each lasted for an average of four years. There was evidence to imply the existence of procyclical fiscal policy in Kenya. Regime switching tests for long run sustainability suggested that the No-Ponzi game condition weakly holds in the Kenyan economy. Regime-based sensitivity analysis indicated that persistence of unsustainability regime for more than 4 years could threaten long-run fiscal sustainability. 相似文献
16.
W. Qazizada 《International Review of Applied Economics》2015,29(2):238-258
This paper investigates the impact of government spending on output and the size of the spending multiplier during periods of output contraction and expansion. It also investigates the impact of spending when the economy hits the nominal zero lower bound. It uses a panel of 21 advanced countries over the period of 1979–2011, applying a TSLS estimation technique. We find a spending multiplier of close to 1 during expansion and values of up to 3 during contractions. However, our results do not indicate a difference in the impact of spending during nominal zero lower bound periods. 相似文献
17.
Konstantinos Angelopoulos Jim Malley Apostolis Philippopoulos 《Journal of Macroeconomics》2011,33(2):176-192
In this paper, we examine whether policy interventions, aimed at improving resource allocation, also have important stabilization effects over the business cycle. To this end, we employ a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which public education expenditures, financed by distorting taxes, enhance the productivity of private education choices. We then calculate the welfare implications of competing operating targets using a state-contingent instrument rule for public education spending. Our main findings are: (i) there can be important cyclical effects of different resource allocation policies depending on the operating target used and the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty; (ii) it is important to use an operating target which is as close as possible to the heart of the market imperfection that justifies policy action; (iii) policy action should not be monotonic in the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty. 相似文献
18.
Hyungon Kim 《New Political Economy》2015,20(2):228-253
This study attempts to make a contribution to the field of spending aspects of fiscal policy and their impacts on electoral outcome. Due to varying degrees of financial responsibilities and commitments to provide public goods and services, US state governments serve as a perfectly natural laboratory to test the electoral significance of fiscal policies. We adopt a probit model, with several specifications, to determine significant impacts of fiscal consolidation and increases in welfare spending on US gubernatorial elections from 1978 to 2006. The analyses show that voters are more concerned about the increase in debt than current budget deficits. An increase in welfare spending is negatively associated with reelection. Moreover, the impact of taxation on gubernatorial elections turns out to be insignificant. In particular, findings suggest that the political business cycle model does not hold true in US gubernatorial elections. Expansionary fiscal policy right before the election may not have crucial impacts on the chances of an incumbent winning the election. 相似文献
19.
Patching up the Pact 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The paper considers the implications for the EU accession candidates of Central and Eastern Europe of the fiscal‐financial constraints imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact and the Maastricht Treaty. Our findings apply also to those current EU members whose initial conditions (e.g., infrastructure and progress in state pension reform) or other structural characteristics (e.g., demographic structure, growth potential, Balassa‐Samuelson equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation) differ significantly from the EU average. We find the existing criteria to be seriously flawed and propose an alternative rule, the Permanent Balance Rule, based on a strong form of tax smoothing. 相似文献
20.
ABSTRACTThis study investigates the effects of government spending shocks on various key macro variables in China, Korea, and Japan using structural VAR models. The main empirical findings are as follows. Government spending multipliers of all three countries are far larger than 1 in recent years. The effectiveness of fiscal expansion has not changed markedly in China but substantially increased in Korea (after the Asian financial crisis) and Japan (during zero lower bound period). Increases in the effectiveness of fiscal expansion are associated with changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy regimes and institutions of these countries. Among the three countries, the government spending multiplier is relatively large in China but relatively small in Japan in recent years. Although the effects on exchange rate and trade balance vary across countries and sample periods, real exchange rate tends to depreciate, whereas trade balance tends to improve under flexible exchange rate regimes. Some empirical findings are consistent with standard theory, but others are not.Abbreviations: NK: New Keynesian VAR: Vector Autoregressive ZLB: Zero Lower Bound 相似文献