To defer or not defer? UK state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model

The UK state pension (which depends only on age) includes an option to defer take up which yields either a subsequent lump sum or higher weekly pension. We analyse the joint decisions on pension deferral and intertemporal labour supply/participation in a lifecycle setting. We show that deferral is purely a financial decision, but the impact of deferral on work decisions depends on preferences, wage rates, non-labour income and initial wealth. To exactly characterize this, we use a quasilinear utility function and provide calibrated simulations. We also discuss the choice between a lump sum or increased weekly pension.     

Income tax policy and lifetime labor supply

A progressive income tax structure provides incentives for individuals to alter their rate of work and their age of retirement. Compared to a zero tax or proportional tax equilibrium, progressive taxation induces individuals to take less leisure in the form of retirement in exchange for more leisure during the worklife, especially at high wage levels. The imposition of a special pension tax provision on top of a progressive tax structure offsets the distortion on leisure alternatives imposed by progressivity. Indeed, the pension tax deferral provision can neutralize the impact of tax progressivity on the work profile over life. The magnitude of these tax inducements in the U.S. tax structure are non-trivial and therefore are expected to alter labor supply decisions over the lifetime. The model finds empirical support using data from the Social Security Newly Entitled Beneficiaries Survey.     

Financial incentives in the Austrian PAYG-pension system: micro-estimation

The scope of this paper is to investigate the impact of financial incentives on the retirement decision of private sector workers in Austria. How do financial incentives embedded in the Austrian pension system impact individual retirement behavior? We are using a unique dataset of individual social insurance spells. Micro-estimating the impact of financial incentives on the probability of retirement shows that the behavioral response to financial incentives in Austria is relatively large in international comparison. Also, there are striking behavioral differences between men and women. Using the estimates to simulate reform scenarios shows huge behavioral changes as incentives alter.     

A critique of the paper by Kanabar,R. and Simmons,P. (2016), ‘To defer or not to defer? UK state pension and work decisions in a lifecycle model’, Applied Economics, 48, 58, 5699-5716

We suggest corrections to the paper by Kanabar and Simmons and provide analyses for deriving the internal rate of return arising from a UK state pension deferral decision and for an actuarially fair deferral scheme.     

Time inconsistency and delayed retirement decision: the French pension bonus

With the increase in life expectancy and demographic shocks, several public policies in the last decades aim to encourage individuals to postpone retirement. One of them, the pension bonus, gives an increased pension if individuals retire beyond their Full Retirement Age. Previous ex post analyses found that the responsiveness to this type of financial incentives, which encourage to postpone retirement, is heterogeneous among agents and that the global effect is rather limited. Deriving from previous research in Behavioural Economics, this article analyses the impact of time inconsistency in the decision to delay retirement to get the bonus. Using public national survey data, short-term and long-term impatience are measured with questions on retiring motivations. After controlling for the endogeneity of the bonus knowledge, econometric results show that time-inconsistent agents are less likely to retire with the bonus.     

An inter-temporal general equilibrium analysis of the Australian age pension means test

The Australian age pension is somewhat unusual among developed countries in that it is means tested against both the claimant’s income and assets. While means testing of age pensions facilitates the aims of directing public pensions to those senior individuals most in need and of containing pension expenditures by governments, it also has the effect of changing the incentives of individuals to work and save. This paper examines the implications of the Australian means tested age pension for incentives of individuals to save and work, for government financial commitments and for the welfare of individuals. To this end, we develop an overlapping generations model of the Australian economy that incorporates the essential features of the Australian pension, superannuation and taxation policy settings and use it to explore the implications of several hypothetical policy changes that relax the means test of the age pension. Our results confirm that the existing means-tested, age pension represents a disincentive for some older Australians to work.     

中国养老金隐性债务、转轨成本、改革方式及其影响——可计算一般均衡分析

中国经济改革所遇到的一个严重障碍就是缺少一个有效的和可持续的养老金体系。在考察了国际经验后 ,本文利用可计算一般均衡模型分析了中国养老金改革的影响 ,并比较了支付隐性养老金债务和转制成本的各种选择方案。通过考察各种改革方案对养老体系自身可持续性和整个经济增长的影响 ,模拟结果表明中国养老金体制的改革虽然任重道远 ,但仍是富有希望的。     

中国养老保险统筹账户的财务可持续性研究——基于开放系统的测算

文章运用精算估计方法,预测分析了我国城镇职工养老保险统筹账户的财务状况和财务可持续性。研究结果表明,年度支付危机会在2018-2036年之间出现,2023-2050年内源性基金累积不足值得格外关注。从长期看,如果没有外源性融资,仅靠制度本身的资金支持,统筹账户的财务可持续性难以为继。现阶段政府关注的重点应是如何扩大养老保险收入来源和完善养老保险的制度设计。     

Investment risk taking by institutional investors

According to theory, institutional investors face both risk-management and risk-shifting incentives. This article assesses the relevance of these conflicting incentives for Dutch pension funds and insurance firms over the period 1995 to 2009. Using a unique and extended data set, we observe a significant positive relationship between capital and asset risk for insurers, indicating that risk-management incentives dominate in the Dutch insurance industry. Risk-shifting incentives, however, also seem relevant, as stock insurers take more investment risk than their mutual peers. For Dutch pension funds, we conclude that overall neither risk-shifting nor risk-management incentives seem to dominate. Interestingly, we find that professional group pension funds take significantly less investment risk than other types of pension funds. This finding is in line with expectations, as in professional group pension funds potential incentive conflicts between pension fund participants and the employer are effectively internalized.     

新农保与农村低收入家庭贫困脆弱性*——基于精准扶贫背景和不同贫困标准

为考察新农保在精准扶贫时期能否降低农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱性，本文利用2014—2018年家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，基于2 300元/年和每人每天32美元两类不同贫困标准衡量的贫困脆弱性指标，采用双向固定效应模型和工具变量法进行实证检验。研究发现，总体而言，缴费参与新农保对农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱性具有显著削弱作用，但领取新农保在一定程度上加剧了农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱程度。根据领保状态的分阶段分析发现，缴费参与新农保和缴费参保人数增加对未领保家庭和领保家庭的贫困脆弱性都具有显著改善作用，但领取新农保和领保人数对贫困脆弱性没有显著影响。异质性分析表明，缴费参与新农保可以改善健康成员家庭的贫困脆弱性，对无储蓄家庭和无借贷家庭的贫困脆弱程度具有显著缓解作用。机制检验表明，缴费参与新农保可以通过提高家庭生产性固定资产和减少代际转移，进而缓解家庭贫困脆弱性程度，而领取新农保则通过增加子女对老人的经济支持而加剧家庭贫困脆弱程度。     

Outreach and performance of microfinance institutions: a panel analysis

Using a panel of 764 microfinance institutions (MFIs) from 87 countries, this study analyses the possible trade-off between outreach and performance and shows that greater depth of outreach has a positive impact on the financial performance of an MFI. The empirical results of this study should dispel the widely held apprehension that the recent emphasis on attainment of financial sustainability by the MFIs could seriously impair their outreach efforts and shows that outreach to the poor can actually bolster financial performance.     

养老保险全国统筹、地方政府保费征缴行为与财政责任

本文基于地方政府保费征缴行为变化的视角，构建计量和精算模型，通过分析基本养老保险全国统筹的财政效应发现：第一，如果实施中央调剂制度， 2021—2050年累计财政责任为1 104.56万亿元；第二，如果实现全国统筹，征缴率会下降15.6%，累计财政责任较实施中央调剂制度时提高23.67%；第三，假定国家出台激励机制来规范地方政府保费征缴行为，征缴率提高3.39%，累计财政责任较实施全国统筹政策时下降5.14%；第四，若进一步引入渐进式延迟退休年龄政策，累计财政责任较出台激励机制时下降17.18%~23.82%。可见，在推进基本养老保险全国统筹的过程中，国家应出台奖惩激励机制，并尽快制定延迟退休年龄方案。     

Building and Interpreting Macro/Micro Estimates of Accrued‐to‐Date Pension Liabilities: French Reforms as a Case Study

Estimates of accrued‐to‐date pension liabilities (ADL) should become more widely accessible to statisticians and decision makers in the near future, in application of new SNA requirements. This raises two questions: how can such estimates be routinely produced, and what for? Microsimulation helps in answering the first question of the “how.” It allows ADL computations that take into account the complexity of pension rules. Concerning the “what for” question, it is known that ADL are not an indicator of global financial sustainability. Messages they convey are more interesting at the micro level, from a household perspective. This fosters the case for microsimulation which spontaneously generates consistent micro/macro results. We illustrate these points using the French situation as a case study. We emphasize one aspect of French reforms that may concern other countries as well: the move to price indexation and the connection it creates between sustainability and growth assumptions.     

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION IN THE FACE OF A MEANS‐TESTED PUBLIC PENSION

We investigate whether households adjust their asset portfolios just prior to retirement in ways that are consistent with maximizing eligibility for a means‐tested public pension. We utilize detailed micro data for a nationally‐representative sample of Australian households to estimate a system of asset equations which are constrained to add up to net worth. Our results provide little evidence that healthy households or couples are responding to the incentives embedded in the means tests determining pension eligibility by reallocating assets. While there are some differences in asset portfolios associated with having an income near the income threshold, being of pensionable age, and being in poor health, these differences are often only marginally significant and are not clearly consistent with the incentives inherent in the Australian age pension eligibility rules. Any behavioral response to the incentives inherent in the age‐pension means test appears to be predominately concentrated among single pensioners who are in poor health.     

Section 401(k), 403(b) and 457(b) plans: who can do what?

This article examines the three main types of supplementary pension arrangements. It focuses on their origins and development, employer eligibility, deferral and contribution limits, funding arrangements and other technical requirements as they have been affected by recent developments.     

Integration of unemployment insurance with retirement insurance

This paper analyzes a social insurance system that integrates unemployment insurance with a pension program, allowing workers to borrow against their future wage income to finance consumption during an unemployment episode and thus improving search incentives while reducing the risks arising from unemployment. This paper identifies the conditions under which integration improves welfare and the factors which determine the optimal degree of integration. We show that when the duration of unemployment is very short compared to the period of employment or retirement, the optimal system involves exclusive reliance on pension-funded self-insurance. This system imposes a negligible risk burden for workers while avoiding attenuating search incentives. We also argue that joint integration of several social insurance programs with a pension program through an individual account is desirable unless the risks are perfectly correlated with each other.     

Effects of future pension benefits on pre-retirement labor supply: Evidence from Chile

In this paper, I estimate the effect of future pension benefits on pre-retirement labor supply for a representative sample of Chilean workers. Using nonlinear patterns in pension benefit formulas and a reform that permanently changed non-contributory pensions, I estimate the effect of pension accrual and expected pension wealth on labor force and contributory-sector participation, labor earnings, and hours worked. I find that the effect is concentrated on the impact of pension accrual on the probability to contribute to the pension system. The effect is heterogeneous and is concentrated among middle-aged workers, low-skilled workers, and workers with higher financial literacy.     

Intergenerational contracts and their decomposition: An extension

Pay-as-you-go financed state pension systems as means for public pension insurance seem to lose their attraction: economic growth is too slow to guarantee an internal rate of return matching the real interest rate. Therefore, efficiency reasons do not justify the introduction of this kind of old age insurance. Unfortunately, a transition from an existing pay-as-you-go system to a capital-funded pension scheme is shown not to be Pareto-improving.I gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments of Dieter Bös and Wolfgang Peters, who told me what to publish and what to file in the archives. I am indebted to two anonymous referees for valuable and fundamental remarks. Furthermore, I want to thank the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft for financial support via SFB 303.     

Pension funds,corporate responsibility and sustainability

The paper introduces two approaches to identify corporate behaviours that should attract the attention of pension funds in the context of debates over sustainability, while remaining within a narrow interpretation of their fiduciary duty. The approaches are based on two simple models of how different societal spheres interact with one another and influence long-term economic performance. These models allow exploring the idea that corporations can influence trajectories of societal change—keeping in mind that pension funds care about these trajectories because they care about the long-term performance of the economies in which they invest. The model underlying the internalising investor approach assumes that corporations are the only actors in society. In this model, pension funds will maximise their expected ability to meet their liabilities if companies internalise negative externalities and spill-over effects in order to reduce the cost of market failures for the economy as a whole. The model underlying the civic investor approach comprises companies and various actors (the state, NGOs, corporate stakeholders) engaged in shaping the governance structure that mediates the interaction between the social, environmental and economic spheres. In this model, pension funds will want companies to facilitate effective responses to societal problems. These approaches allow us to identify a number of corporate behaviours that should be of concern to pension funds.     

Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics

With increasing longevity and decreasing fertility rates, governments and policy makers are increasingly engaged in the question of long term retirement planning. In many cases this has included emphasising the need for individuals to take more responsibility for their own retirement planning through tax incentives, compulsion and changes to the age at which state retirement benefits become available. In the case of Australia, as is considered here, long term retirement planning has been focused around the development of a compulsory defined contribution (DC) superannuation system. Here we investigate the interaction between population ageing and the sustainability of the superannuation system by modelling a general superannuation scheme to compare the adequacy of retirement funds under a number of alternative scenarios. The model incorporates stochastic longevity forecasts and provides insight into the sufficiency of compulsory retirement saving both now and future. We find that the current pension scheme is more robust to longevity improvements for mid-class individuals however significant gaps arise for low-income individuals as longevity improves. Without addressing these issues, government expenditure is expected to increase substantially.