The impact of ethnic diversity on microenterprise start-ups

Until recently, factors determining the decisions made by microfinance institutions (MFIs) to extend loans to business start-ups had not been explored. Recent evidence shows that MFI performance with regard to funds issued for small business start-ups depends on MFI-level characteristics such as profit orientation. We argue that these decisions do not only depend on MFI-specific practices or characteristics, but also on the role ethnic diversity plays. Using data on microfinance lending activities for business start-ups, we examine the impact of ethnic diversity on microenterprise start-ups. Results show that ethnic diversity negatively affects the provision of financial capital for business start-up. Furthermore, results also suggest a negative association between ethnic diversity and the share of female borrowers recorded by MFIs. We examine social networks and outreach as potential channels through which ethnic diversity affects business start-ups.     

MEASURING THE EFFICIENCY OF SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA'S MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS AND ITS DRIVERS

This paper uses a large panel data set covering 70 MFIs in 25 Sub‐Saharan African countries to analyze the efficiency of MFIs. This is important, given that MFIs have to operate efficiently to fulfil its dual mission of serving the poor and being sustainable. The results reveal that MFIs are inefficient in meeting the goals of either providing microfinance related services to their clients or intermediating funds between borrowers and depositors. The MFIs lack ability to reach efficient sizes of their performing loan portfolio at the same time they reach an efficient number of clients served.     

Fire sales by euro area banks and funds: What is their asset price impact?

The assets under management of investment funds have soared in recent years, triggering a debate on their possible implications for financial stability. We contribute to this debate assessing the asset price impact of fire sales in a novel partial equilibrium model of euro area funds and banks calibrated over the period between 2008 and 2017. An initial shock to yields causes funds to sell assets to address investor redemptions, while both banks and funds sell assets to keep their leverage constant. These fire sales generate second-round price effects. We find that the potential losses due to the price impact of fire sales have decreased over time for the system. The contribution of funds to this impact is lower than that of banks. However, funds’ relative contribution has risen due to their increased assets under management and banks’ lower leverage and rebalancing towards loans. Should this trend continue, funds will become an increasingly important source of systemic risk.     

Fixed versus variable rate loans under state-dependent preferences

This paper examines the optimal mix of fixed and variable rate loans of a competitive bank facing uncertain funding costs. The bank's preferences are state-dependent in that the utility function depends on a state variable. We show that the optimal amount of loans extended by the bank depends neither on the state-dependent preferences of the bank, nor on the joint distribution of the marginal cost of funds and the state variable. The bank, however, optimally lends less should it be forced to assume all interest rate risk by exclusively extending fixed rate loans. We show further that a non-positive spread between fixed and variable rate loans is no longer a necessary and sufficient condition for the bank to refrain from extending fixed rate loans should the marginal cost of funds be correlated with the state variable in the sense of expectation dependence. State-dependent preferences as such play a pivotal role in determining the bank's optimal choice between fixed and variable rate loans.     

Loan officer gender and loan repayment performance. Evidence from greenfield microfinance institutions in Cameroon1

We explore whether loan officer gender affects loan repayment performance in Cameroonian microfinance institutions (MFIs). After controlling for demand-side factors (borrower characteristics), lending methodology, loan contract terms, year, and industry fixed effects, we apply a pooled probit model to a unique loan-level dataset including more than 7000 loans approved between 2007 and 2012 by two Cameroonian commercial MFIs. We find that loans granted and monitored by male loan officers perform better than those granted by female officers and that loans approved under joint liability contracts and monitored by male loan officers are less likely to fall into arrears. Our findings also show that the performance advantage of male loan officers over female officers is confirmed only during bad times. Compared to female loan officers, male loan officers seem to intensify their monitoring efforts during a crisis period. The results are robust after controlling for selection bias and are less sensitive to a change in the loan repayment performance measurement.     

Here today,gone tomorrow: Can dynamic incentives make microfinance more flexible?

This paper presents a model of microfinance lending to individuals that uses dynamic incentives, in the form of access to additional loans, to discourage borrowers from strategic default, or the unwillingness to repay a loan once a positive outcome is realized. We propose an improvement on contracts currently used by microfinance institutions (MFIs) by endogenizing the default penalty, while constraining the MFI to maintain sustainable lending operations. Furthermore, accounting for the risks that the poor face by including a negative economic shock, we show that under certain circumstances, the punishment for default need not be a lifetime without loans.     

Is the model “loans‐plus‐savings” better for microfinance in Eastern Europe and Central Asia? A propensity score matching comparison

Microfinance institutions are gradually evolving into multiservice organizations offering not only loans but also savings, and other financial and nonfinancial services. We contribute to the literature aimed at identifying how combining credit with savings affects outreach and sustainability in microfinance institutions (MFIs). We apply the propensity score matching method as well as its augmented dose–response version to compare the performance of loans‐plus‐savings MFIs with that of lending‐only in a sample of 710 observations from Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Owing to our unique capital structure data, we control for the use of subsidized capital, which related work ignores while existing evidence points to tradeoffs between subsidies and savings. We find that financial performance and breadth of outreach are positively associated with savings mobilization, while the evidence on depth of outreach points to a possible mission drift.     

Monetary Policy Shocks and Heterogeneous Finance Decisions: A Model of Hidden Effort Choice and Financial Intermediation

Abstract. The paper investigates how monetary policy shocks influence the composition of firms' external finance given that firms are heterogeneous. Heterogeneity stems from differences in the availability of internal funds and in the monitoring costs associated with bank finance. These costs are determined by the intensity of the lending relationship. By using a delegated monitoring approach it is found that bank loans serve as a substitute for internal funds if the lending relationship is sufficiently close. Moreover, banks with strong credit ties to their customers are not only able to protect borrowers from liquidity constraints following a monetary tightening but are even able to extend their business lending.     

Microfinance spillovers: A model of competition in informal credit markets with an application to Indian villages

Despite widespread interest in the development of microfinance, spillover effects on the non-using population and redistributive issues remain largely unexplored. I study a competition game between microfinance institutions (MFIs) offering joint-liability loans and moneylenders offering individual loans in presence of adverse selection. I show that one unintended consequence of the entry of a microfinance sector in local credit markets can be to trigger an increase in the equilibrium informal interest rate, because MFIs tend to attract a disproportionately-safe share of the borrower pool away from incumbent moneylenders. The existence of such composition externality depends crucially on the size of the microfinance sector and the risk composition of the borrower pool. The model predicts a non-linearly increasing relationship between informal interest rates and MFIs' capacity in relatively safe credit markets, and no relationship in risky villages. I show evidence supporting these predictions, using a first-hand panel database that records all credit transactions over 8 years for a sample of about 1000 households living in Indian villages with extensive space and time variation in the size of their microfinance sector.     

Endogenous overhead costs,firm size,and fiscal shocks

Recent empirical observations indicate that firm size responds to cyclical fluctuations in economic activities. By analyzing the effects of endogenous overhead costs in the economy, this paper finds that in response to a fiscal expansion, firm size will increase if the relationship between overhead costs and the number of firms is positive, while firm size will decrease if the relationship is negative.     

Determinants of margin in microfinance institutions

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) lend to the poor. However, microfinance clients suffer from high interest rates, a type of poverty penalty. This article analyses the margin determinants in MFIs. A banking model has been adapted to microfinance. This model has been tested using 9-year panel data. Some factors explaining bank margin also explain MFI margin, with operating costs being the most important factor. Specific microfinance factors are donations and legal status, as regulated MFIs can collect deposits. It has also been found that MFIs operating in countries with a high level of financial inclusion have low margins.     

Where does microfinance flourish? Microfinance institution performance in macroeconomic context

We study whether and how the success of microfinance institutions (“MFI"s) depends on the country-level context, in particular macroeconomic and macro-institutional features. Understanding these linkages can make MFI evaluation more accurate and, further, can help to locate microfinance in the broader picture of economic development. We collect data on 373 MFIs and merge it with country-level economic and institutional data. Evidence arises for complementarity between MFI performance and the broader economy. For example, MFIs are more likely to cover costs when growth is stronger; and MFIs in financially deeper economies have lower default and operating costs, and charge lower interest rates. There is also evidence suggestive of substitutability or rivalry. For example, more manufacturing and higher workforce participation are associated with slower growth in MFI outreach. Overall, the country context appears to be an important determinant of MFI performance; MFI performance should be handicapped for the environment in which it was achieved.     

MARKET VALUE ACCOUNTING AND THE BANK BALANCE SHEET

Market value accounting for depository institutions is frequently suggested as a means of limiting losses to the deposit insurance funds. But opponents argue that market value accounting is too costly to be worth the effort. This article examines each balance sheet category to determine the feasibility of marking bank portfolios to market. One can assume that almost two-thirds of the asset side and over half of the liability side already are at market. In addition, securities and loans to less-developed countries are traded in secondary markets. Thus, the major cost of market value accounting would be computing current values of commercial loans through discounted cash flow analysis. But efforts now are under way in the private sector to develop less costly ways to determine market values. If market value accounting is adopted, then it will likely have its greatest effect on institutions with large holdings of loans to less-developed countries.     

国库现金转存商业银行的货币政策效应研究——基于Hollenhorst扩展框架的分析

本文构建了国库现金转存商业银行对货币政策影响的分析框架,研究表明,国库现金转存商业银行的货币政策效应主要取决于存款扩张乘数、国库现金抵押需求、公众贷款需求和国库现金存款形成的贷款对国内商品和服务的需求水平等因素。存款扩张乘数越大,国库现金对商业银行信贷水平的影响就越强。国库现金存款的抵押债券需求比例对信贷供给造成了反向影响,抵押比例越高,商业银行必须留出越多的储备购买债券,从而政府国库现金存款的增加可能导致信贷增量的下降。在平滑国库现金影响的政策选择上,中央银行表现出一定的被动性,通过制定国库现金存款的区别法定准备金率是中央银行调控国库现金影响货币政策的重要手段。     

Does Institutional Linkage of Bank‐MFI Foster Inclusive Financial Development Even in the Presence of MFI Frauds?

Growing reports indicate the presence of frauds in microfinance institutions (MFIs), as it can occur in any organization in countries where there are weak institutions, weak rule of law, and fraudulent behavior of MFI officers for personal gain. While there are increasing calls to launch financial governance of these NGO MFIs, there are concerns as to whether frauds of this nature can damage MFIs’ contributions to the credit market, particularly in the bank‐linkage program where the NGO MFIs act as third party intermediary. The purpose of this study was to analyze the collusion decisions faced by MFIs and their impact on the bank‐linkage program, which has been offered as a solution to help overcome adverse selection and moral hazard problems in the credit market by harnessing local information via MFIs. Our results show that even when there is a chance of collusion between MFI and the borrower, the linkage between MFI and bank can still increase the probability that the borrower puts in full effort, and therefore decreases the probabilities of both credit rationing and strategic default. Such linkage in financing viable projects can make micro‐financing more effective in achieving inclusive financial development and thereby poverty reduction in rural areas.     

On the user cost and homeownership

This paper studies the differences in the cost of housing services for renters and homeowners and calculates the bias that results when we value owner-occupied housing services using a rental equivalence approach. Our framework is a life-cycle model with endogenous tenure choice with households facing idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk and housing price risk. We model houses as illiquid assets that provide collateral for loans. To analyze the impact of preferential housing taxation on the tenure choice and the bias, we consider a tax system that mimics that of the US economy. Namely, owner-occupied housing services are not taxed and mortgage interest payments are deductible. Through simulations, we show that a rental equivalence approach (relative to a user cost approach) overestimates the cost of housing services. The magnitude of the bias is very sensitive to both the income tax rate and the size of adjustment costs in the housing market.     

The Impact of Liquidity Constraints on Bank Lending Policy

This paper examines banks' provision of liquidity to depositors and provision of loans. The problem identified is that banks may not be able to provide new funds for borrowers who are short of cash, because either the return on investments is poor, or because depositors withdraw more funds than expected. Banks subject to liquidity shortages may ration loans to good borrowers. This problem is shown to depend upon the nature of the deposit contract and banks' inability to issue subordinated deposits. State contingent renegotiation of loans and matching of the duration of project returns and investment needs mitigates the problem.     

The impact of mobile financial services’ usage on microfinance delinquency

This paper studies the impact of Mobile Financial Systems’ usage on microcredit delinquency ratios in Tunisia by using either a two-part model or matching econometric procedures. Our large dataset contains all of the administrative registers that belong to the six branches of Enda, the incumbent Institution leader in Tunisia. We find a significant reduction of 4.92 days of late repayment for an average user of MFS in an environment where 15% of loans have been paid late at least once. We foresee a tremendous opportunity to improve the MFIs’ repayment ratios and, consequently, provide microcredit customers with more financing for income generating activities.     

Will euro area house prices sharply decrease?

The long-term euro area house price equilibrium and its short-term dynamics are estimated by means of a panel error correction model. The estimates show that the short-term dynamics are essentially driven by the autoregressive term (persistence), disposable income and mortgage loans, whereas interest rates have little effect. The long-term house price equilibrium is mainly driven on the demand side by disposable income, interest rates, and mortgage loans, whereas costs (mostly land) drive the equilibrium on the supply side. The unprecedented long-lasting boom in house prices from 1997 to 2007 is thus essentially explained by a favourable macroeconomic development caused by the EMU effect and a glut of global savings. The bust phase of euro area house prices began in 2007, and the current house price might return to its equilibrium level in 2014. According to the most realistic scenario, euro area house prices will experience a smooth and soft landing in 2016 and then begin an increasing phase that will be pulled upwards by a higher equilibrium price. However, a deflationary scenario cannot be excluded if the current credit squeeze is not solved, particularly in the peripheral euro area member states.     

Formal microlending and adverse (or nonexistent) selection: a case study of shrimp farmers in Bangladesh

Microcredit schemes have become a popular means of improving smallholders’ access to credit and making long term investment possible. However, it remains to be explored whether the current microcredit schemes are more successful than earlier formal small scale lending in identifying successful borrowers. We studied shrimp farming in a rural region in Bangladesh where formal microlending is well established, but where more expensive informal microlending coexists with the formal schemes. Farmers – both those who exclusively use formal loans and those who also use informal loans – remain credit-constrained; both types overutilize labour in order to reduce the need for working capital. However, the credit constraint is actually milder for the informal borrowers: the implicit shadow price of working capital is substantially higher in the group that only takes formal loans than in the group that also uses informal loans. These results suggest that informal lenders – with their closer ties to the individual farmers – remain more successful in identifying those smallholder farmers that are most likely to use the borrowed funds successfully. Informal lenders have an information advantage that formal microlenders lack: the latter need to find routes to access this information in order for formal microcredit schemes to succeed.