Another look at the linear q model: an empirical analysis of aggregate business capital spending with maintenance expenditures

Abstract .  The paper revisits the empirical investment literature, which has established that aggregate business fixed investment is not found to be related linearly to marginal or average Tobin's q . The theoretical background is extended here by developing a supply-side model where the depreciation rate of private capital is determined endogenously. The firm can either invest in 'new' capital, which adds directly to the existing capital stock at the presence of convex adjustment costs, or extend the durability of installed capital through maintenance expenditure, which affects its depreciation rate. The model shows that Tobin's q is then a positively related sufficient statistic for both components of aggregate capital expenditures. This central implication is tested empirically using aggregate time-series survey data from Canada on 'new' investment and maintenance expenditures covering the period 1956–93. The estimated relationships produce significant and plausible parameter estimates for the structural parameters of the q model.     

Population ageing,time allocation and human capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada

This study explores the long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in Canada, as well as the induced effects on productive capacity. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model where in the spirit of Becker [Becker, Gary (1965), A theory of the allocation of time, The Economic Journal, Vol. 75, pp. 493–517.] and Heckman [Heckman, James (1976), A life-cycle model of earnings, learning and consumption, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, pp. 511–544], leisure has a quality-time feature and labour supply and human capital investment decisions are endogenous. The role of human capital in the growth process is based on the framework used by Mankiw et al. [Mankiw, N. Gregory, Romer, David and Weil, David N. (1992), A contribution to the empirics of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 407–437]. The paper indicates that population ageing creates more opportunities for young individuals to invest in human capital and supply more skilled labour at middle age. Consequently, the reduction in labour supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. However, current and future middle-age cohorts are more skilled and work more, which eventually raises productive capacity and significantly lowers the cost of population ageing. Finally, these results suggest that the recent increase in the participation rate of older workers might be the beginning of a new trend that will amplify over the next decades.     

Determinants and consequences of soft budget constraintsAn empirical analysis using enterprise‐level data in transition countries1

This paper presents empirical work grounded in the soft budget constraint (SBC) literature. A loan is soft when a bank cannot commit the enterprise to hold to a fixed initial budget and/or the timing of repayment. Using data collected by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) (Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS), 2002) in 26 transition economies, we analyze the determinants of managers’ expectations of having a soft loan. In particular, we find that managers’ expectations are lower when the initial financing requires collateral, and higher for larger firms and when firms had recently experienced financial distress. We also provide evidence that managers’ expectations influence their price responsiveness.     

Market thickness,sunk costs,productivity, and the outsourcing decision: an empirical analysis of manufacturing firms in France

Abstract This paper presents an empirical analysis of outsourcing behaviour by French manufacturing industries. It focuses on the effects of market thickness, sunk costs, and the productivity of firms on the outsourcing decision. I estimate a dynamic probit model where outsourcing decision is linked to past outsourcing behaviour. The results show that outsourcing is a persistent strategy adopted by large firms and suggest the presence of significant sunk costs associated with outsourcing. The results also show that market thickness reduces search costs and enhances the establishment of outsourcing relationships.     

Price volatility of south-east fishery's quota species: an empirical analysis

This study investigates the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized-ARCH (GARCH) effects in the price series of Australian South-East Fishery's quota species. It is found that in all cases significant ARCH and/or GARCH effects are present. To search for the origins of these effects a weakly exogenous variable (trading volume) is introduced to the conditional variance equation of the ARCH and GARCH models, provided that such effects are observed in the first stage of investigation. It is found that in 14 cases the estimated coefficients of the trading volume are negative. In all cases, the 'trading volume' variable does not contribute to the removal of the ARCH and/or GARCH effects. Finally, the policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Aid effectiveness and the soft budget constraint: EU development aid to the former Soviet Union

Aid effectiveness is defined as contractual completeness. EU development aid constitutes the new soft budget constraint in the former Soviet Union. Transnational sovereignty means that development policy is decided by the post-Soviet planner and financed by the European Commission.     

AIDS and economic growth: A human capital approach

Using a model that combines growth and health capital equations this study analyses the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth. The econometric results indicate that the epidemic's effects have been substantial; in Africa the marginal impact on income per capita of a 1% increase in HIV prevalence rate is minus 0.59%. Even in countries with lower HIV prevalence rates the marginal impacts are non-trivial. Hence while the human and social costs of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are major causes for concern, these results indicate that the macroeconomic affects of the HIV/AIDS epidemic are important.     

Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China

This study attempts to measure the inefficiency associated with aggregate investment in a transitional economy. The inefficiency is decomposed into allocative and technical inefficiency based on standard production theory. Allocative inefficiency is measured by the deviation of actual investment from the theoretically desired investment demand. Institutional factors are then identified as part of the driving force of the deviation. The resulting model is applied to Chinese provincial panel data. The main findings are: Chinese investment demand is strongly receptive to expansionary fiscal policies and inter-provincial network effects; the tendency of over-investment remains, even with signs of increasing allocative efficiency and improving technical efficiency.     

Parental involvement and Children's human capital: A tax-subsidy experiment

Parental time with children has a significant influence on early childhood development, future accumulation of a wide array of cognitive and non-cognitive skills and the ultimate success of the child. The model presented in this article features endogenous fertility and labour supply while distinguishing between various types of parental time spent with children. We conduct a quantitative analysis to investigate the importance of the role of family for children's skill formation. In the model, parents are subsidized for spending publicly verifiable productive time with their children. Such intervention can significantly enhance the human capital of children, yet it affects the overall labour supply of the primary caretaker in an ambiguous way.     

Health expenditure models: A comparison using panel data

In this article, we focus on the estimation of outpatient expenditures with panel data. We model the logarithm of expenditures and consider five different models. The first two are two-part and sample selection cross-section models. Two-part panel data models turn out to be inappropriate for dealing with expenditures. We thus estimate sample selection models with panel data: one without a lagged dependent variable and two with a lagged dependent variable. These two latter models differ in their assumptions on the variance of the residuals. Modelling heteroscedasticity may indeed be important to avoid the bias due to the retransformation problem. We show that lagged dependent variables are important factors for heteroscedasticity. For the models with state dependence, we provide a new solution to the initial conditions problem by controlling for generalised residuals. We establish that panel data models highly improve the correlation explained by the model in the time-series dimension without damaging the fit in the cross-section dimension. For all indicators of fit, the model with state dependence and heteroscedasticity seems to dominate the others.     

Privatization and capital formation in developing countries: an empirical analysis

The spur for privatization and its impact on economic performance have been analysed from many perspectives, including microeconomics, macroeconomics, and institutional economics. Previous research has focused on efficiency reasons for privatization at the level of the firm, and the relative performance of state‐owned enterprises and privately owned firms. This article investigates the macroeconomic facet of privatization with particular attention paid to the relation between privatization and capital formation in developing countries. Our study uses recent World Bank data on privatization for 105 countries over the time period 1988–2003. We explore the impact of privatization on capital formation by conducting two‐stage least squares and ordinary least squares estimations within three time frames. Our findings indicate that the effect of privatization on capital formation varies across regions and time frames. In general, privatization is neutral with regard to investment.     

Coordinating the accumulation of physical and human capital in different institutional settings

This paper presents an out-of-equilibrium model to explain differences in the capacity to absorb new skill-biased technologies. The usual mainstream viewpoint focusing only on the role of labour markets will be re-examined in a context characterized by a sequential structure of both the processes of production and the skill formation, whose interaction brings about coordination failures harming the viability of the innovation process. Our out-of-equilibrium approach allows us to consider the more general interplay between stylized labour and product market characteristics, on the one hand, and educational policies, on the other hand. The robust results of the simulations show that educational policies appear to be important in restoring the required coordination both in rigid and in flexible systems, but for different reasons. In the former case, educational policies financed by taxation allow the system to escape a low-productivity final equilibrium. In the latter case, they contrast the financial constraint associated with a large decrease in the unskilled wage. Altogether, a moderate degree of rigidity seems to be the most appropriate institutional environment to reach the targets of viability and of a full exploitation of the technological potential.     

Improving consumption measurement and other survey data through CAPI: Evidence from a randomized experiment

This paper reports on a randomized survey experiment among 1840 households, designed to compare pen-and-paper interviewing (PAPI) to computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). We find that PAPI data contain a large number of errors, which can be avoided in CAPI. Error counts are not randomly distributed across the sample, but are correlated with household characteristics, potentially introducing sample bias if dubious observations need to be dropped. We demonstrate a tendency for the spread of total measured consumption to be higher on paper compared to CAPI, translating into significantly higher measured inequality. Investigating further the nature of PAPI's measurement error for consumption, we fail to reject the hypothesis that it is classical: it attenuates the coefficient on consumption when used as explanatory variable and we find no evidence of bias when consumption is used as dependent variable. Finally, CAPI and PAPI are compared in terms of interview length, costs and respondents' perceptions.     

Inflation targeting in Latin America: Empirical analysis using GARCH models

This paper studies inflation dynamics in eight Latin American countries, some of which have adopted formal inflation targets (IT) as their monetary policy frameworks. We analyze the possible benefits associated with IT, not only in terms of inflation level and volatility, but also regarding other nonlinear characteristics of these series, such as volatility persistence or the fulfillment of the Friedman hypothesis. To describe inflation dynamics we use an unobserved components model, where each component can follow a GARCH type process. Once we estimate the model, the main findings of the empirical exercise confirm the favorable performance of IT.     

Social learning,neighborhood effects,and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India

This paper empirically identifies social learning and neighborhood effects in schooling investments in a new technology regime. Social learning implies that learning is most efficient when observed heterogeneity in schooling is greatest. The estimates of learning-investment rule, from farm household panel data at the onset of the Green Revolution in India, show that (i) agents learn about schooling returns from income realizations of their neighbors, and (ii) the speed of learning is high when the variation of schooling is large. Thus, schooling distribution of the parents' generation in a community has externalities to schooling investments in children. Simulations show that the variations in schooling within and across communities generate variations in child enrollment rate and average household income.     

Interpreting euro area inflation at high and low frequencies

Several authors have recently interpreted the European Central Bank's (ECB's) two-pillar framework as separate approaches to forecast and analyse inflation at different time horizons or frequency bands. The ECB has publicly supported this understanding of the framework. This paper presents further evidence on the behaviour of euro area inflation using band spectrum regressions, which allow for a natural definition of the short and long run in terms of specific frequency bands, and causality tests in the frequency domain. The main finding is that variations in inflation are well explained by low-frequency movements of money and real output growth and high-frequency fluctuations of the output gap.     

Measuring the impact of natural disasters on capital markets: an empirical application using intervention analysis

The impact of natural disasters on the Australian equity market is examined. The data set employed consists of daily price and accumulation returns over the period 31 December 1982–1 January 2002 for the All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and a record of 42 severe storms, floods, cyclones, earthquakes and bushfires (wildfires) during this period with an insured loss in excess of A$5 mil. and/or total loss in excess of A$100 mil. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are used to model the returns and the inclusion of news arrival, in the form of the natural disasters, is specified using intervention analysis. The results indicate that bushfires, cyclones and earthquakes have a major effect on market returns, unlike severe storms and floods. The net effects can be positive and/or negative with most effects being felt on the day of the event and with some adjustment in the days that follow.     

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

Abstract The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household‐level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999, and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID’s sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one’s confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID’s complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.     

The effect of education subsidies on regional economic growth and disparities in China

This paper examines the impact of education subsidies on regional economic growth and the disparities between two Chinese regions, Jiangsu and Liaoning, by simulating their economies in a six-period overlapping generations model in which individuals decide their length of education. This study estimates the long-run growth rates, that is, the steady growth paths of the regional economies based on current education subsidies, and explores their effect on human capital accumulation, namely in terms of economic growth while considering the increase in education subsidies. Because greater government subsidies in education induce individuals to invest in human capital, both regions achieve higher economic growth. Moreover, because of the large differences in productivity between the regions, the growth gap widens with evenly raised education subsidy rates.