Foreign aid and economic growth in Cameroon

A recent study of the fixed-odds betting market on baseball games, while finding that the betting market is generally efficient, also found evidence of an underbetting on underdog teams. This article examines the evidence for this new anomaly. It corrects Woodland and Woodland's estimates of the commission, subjective win probabilities and test statistics. The efficiency null hypothesis cannot be rejected for all of their tests when revised test statistics are calculated for their sample period (however, like them, it was found that slight underdogs are underbet). It is also shown that their bias is not simply a bias involving favourites and underdogs. Whether underdogs are playing at home or away also seems to matter in their sample period. As well a positive relationship between returns and subjective probabilities was found for underdogs and favourites, a relationship suggestive of a favourite-longshot bias rather than its reverse. It is concluded that there is insufficient evidence to claim that this bias is a ‘true market inefficiency’.     

Efficiency in the NFL betting market: modifying and consolidating research methods

Modifying and consolidating previous research methods to generate more reliable estimates, some fairly weak evidence is found of inefficiency in the NFL betting market resulting from a bias favouring home underdog (against away favourite) teams. In contrast to previous research, no evidence is found that ‘momentum strategies’ generate significant returns in this market.     

Market consumption and hidden consumption. A test for substitutability

Previous studies point to a generally efficient baseball betting market with no profitable betting strategies. However, failure to consider the time of year in which the bets are placed neglects differences in available information throughout the season. This analysis largely confirms the general efficiency of the major league baseball betting market by existing measures; however, incorporating the time of the year in which the bet is made generates persistent profitable betting strategies. The process by which information impacts returns is considered; increasing difficulties in determining the true favourite likely play the largest role, while assessing the exact favourite underdog relationship also has an impact.     

To bet or not to bet: a reality check for tennis betting market efficiency

We present evidence that the tennis betting market appears to be much more efficient than suggested by previous studies. More specifically, we study the market efficiency by studying the forecasting performance of a diversified set of 40 betting rules in two ways: by searching for the existence of a return differential between betting rules and by analysing the profitability of betting rules. Even though individual tests provide evidence that, within our universe of betting rules, positive returns can be achieved, when data-snooping bias is taken into account, the evidence diminishes. Subsequently, we also find very little evidence of return differentials between betting rules. These results cast doubts on previous research as they suggest that when the potential detrimental effects of data-dreading are taken into account, betting markets in general might not, ultimately, be so inefficient.     

DO GAMBLERS THINK THAT TEAMS TANK? EVIDENCE FROM THE NBA

A growing body of literature indicates that sports teams face incentives to lose games at the end of the season. This incentive arises from a league's entry draft policy. We use data from betting markets to confirm the existence of tanking, or the perception of tanking, in the National Basketball Association (NBA). Results from a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model of point spreads and point differences in NBA games indicate that betting markets believe that tanking takes place in the NBA, even though the evidence that tanking actually exists is mixed. Other NBA policy changes also affect betting market outcomes. (JEL D0, L0)     

The empirical effects of competition on third‐degree price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage

Since Borenstein ( 1985 ) and Holmes ( 1989 ), a theoretical and empirical literature has emerged that examines the effects of competition on third‐degree price discrimination. Since transaction costs involved in conducting arbitrage are typically unobserved, empirical investigations in this area have largely been restricted to markets such as for air travel where arbitrage is difficult, if not impossible. Using an entirely novel dataset, this paper documents the effect of competition on price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage in the Canadian online sports betting market where prices for Canadian teams are higher than in the world market. I observe how the prices of Canadian teams change in real time in response to the presence of arbitrageurs that establish Canadian sportsbooks’ observable marginal opportunity costs. I exploit the existence of government betting outlets not subject to arbitrage to obtain reduced form counterfactual estimates of the extent to which competition affects price discrimination in the presence of arbitrage. In this new empirical environment, I find results consistent with the airline literature: competition reduces overall price dispersion and markups, but dispersion and markups shrink more for those in the “strong” market than the “weak” market.     

Momentum and betting market perceptions of momentum in college football

Past research has demonstrated that bettors believe positive momentum carries over from contest to contest. This article examines whether there is any empirical support for this belief by testing for the presence of across-contest momentum effects in college football. We characterize momentum in multiple fashions and after controlling for between-team heterogeneity find no evidence that systematic relationships exist between the degree of momentum a team enters a contest with and the outcome of that contest. From a wagering market perspective, this indicates that there is no statistically significant advantage to betting on teams perceived to possess positive momentum. Our results also suggest that the combination of the opening betting line set by odds makers and the subsequent market movement of that line does not systematically overreact to teams on streaks.     

Recreational versus professional bettors: Performance differences and efficiency implications

Using a novel dataset, which allows comparisons across heterogeneous sub-groups of pari-mutuel bettors, we demonstrate significant behaviour and performance distinctions between recreational and professional investors. Professionals’ ability to earn abnormal returns on short odds horses in high volume markets challenges the existing empirical consensus, which offers very limited evidence of betting market inefficiency. The results offer important lessons for betting operators and regulators and highlight the potential for similar avenues of investigation in other speculative markets.     

The Reverse Favourite–longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in Major League Baseball: An Update

Racetrack and sports betting markets have been researched extensively with respect to the question of market efficiency. In contrast to the consistently observed favourite–longshot bias found in racetrack betting markets, it has been shown that gamblers in the market for Major League Baseball games reveal the opposite behaviour. This paper updates the previous study with ten years of additional data for the 1990–99 seasons. The strength of the reverse favourite–longshot bias is virtually identical to the original paper. The result suggests that, contrary to most reported inefficiencies in gambling markets, this bias appears to be permanent.     

Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market

The efficiency of the fixed odds betting market for football in England is investigated. It is the efficiency of how market participants utilize available information that is tested. A model of bookmaker behaviour is presented in which the bookmaker maximizes their expected share of the total amount bet. It is found that an expected profit maximizing bookmaker could set market inefficient odds. Several empirical tests using the ordered probit model with data on prices and publicly available information are carried out. Evidence of market inefficiency is identified offering profitable betting opportunities.     

Changes in Investors' Market Attention and Near-Term Stock Market Returns

We use Google Search volume to track changes investors' positive and negative market attention. Our results support the hypothesis that this information reflects investors' optimistic and pessimistic anticipation and can be used to predict near-term future returns. We find that changes in negative search term volume of “market crash” and “bear market” and changes in positive search term volume “market rally” explain near-term stock returns. Changes in investors' attention are partly related to past stock market returns, implying that investors are prone to pay attention to possible price reversals. These measures of market attention are potential gauges of investor sentiment.     

Game,set and match: the favourite-long shot bias in tennis betting exchanges

We test for the existence of Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis betting exchanges. Despite these being order-driven markets, with no direct participation from bookmakers, we have found very similar results to those obtained by Lahvi?ka (2014) for bookmakers’ betting markets: the bias is stronger in matches between lower-ranked players, in later round matches and in high profile tournaments. This suggests that bookmakers’ adjustments to respond to informed betting are not the main driver of FLB. The varying magnitude of the bias across different types of event in the main market also weakens arguments linking FLB to gamblers’ risk preferences, and suggests the need to consider the microstructure features of the market together with the cognitive biases highlighted in the behavioural finance literature.     

Efficiency characteristics of a market for state contingent claims

This paper concludes that a market for state-contingent claims (UK horserace betting) displays evidence of pervasive but heterogeneous forms of inefficiency, in significant contrast to earlier investigations. Using hitherto unavailable data, comparison of notional returns implicit in parallel sets of bookmaker and parimutuel odds identifies inefficiency in terms of zones of distinct but contrasting forms of cross-;market returns differential. The inefficiency is rationalized in terms of both buyer and supplier behaviour; its durability is explained in terms of limited arbitrage opportunities.     

What drives intermediation costs? A case of tennis betting market

We demonstrate that there is a considerable variation in bookmaker margins across matches, time and bookmakers. Our results imply that using match, tournament and players’ characteristics explains the variations in margins hence, they can be helpful in managing intermediation cost in a market of state-contingent assets: fixed-odds betting markets. We also provide evidence that bookmakers protect themselves by increasing odds on the favourite player, thus attracting more bettors to the favourite player, while deterring bettors from betting on the underdog by reducing the odds. By that process, bookmakers are possibly sacrificing a portion of their margin.     

Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: a Survey

The concept of information efficiency is central to many studies of financial markets, and these studies have been well surveyed to date. A betting market is an example of a simple financial market, but one which offers researchers the added advantage that it is characterized by a well-defined termination point at which each asset (or bet) possesses a definite value. In consequence, it is much more convenient to use this particular context to formulate tests of information efficiency, and from these tests to draw useful conclusions. This paper surveys the rapidly growing literature which has to date addressed this issue of information efficiency in betting markets.     

Betting on weight loss … and losing: personal gambles as commitment mechanisms

Professional bookmakers rarely accept bets from individuals who directly control the outcome of the bet. We analyse a unique exception to this rule and a potential policy innovation in the battle against obesity: a weight loss betting market. If obese individuals have time-inconsistent preferences then commitment mechanisms, such as personal gambles, should help them restrain their short-term impulses and lose weight. Correspondence with the bettors confirms that this is their primary motivation. However, it appears that the bettors in our sample are not particularly skilled at choosing effective commitment mechanisms. Despite payoffs of as high as $7350, approximately 80% of people who spend money to bet on their own behaviour end up losing their bets. Empirical analysis of the betting market yields further insights. Males are treated very differently compared to females: being male is considered equivalent to having an extra 6 months to lose the same amount of weight. Movements in the market price also confirm the belief that rigidity is preferred to flexibility in setting successful weight loss targets.     

Entrepreneurial talent, occupational choice, and trickle up policies

We study market inefficiencies and policy remedies when agents choose their occupations, and entrepreneurial talent is subject to private information. Untalented entrepreneurs depress the returns to entrepreneurship because of adverse selection. The severity of this problem depends on the outside option of entrepreneurs, which is working for wages. This links credit, product and labor markets. A rise in wages reduces the adverse selection problem. These multimarket interactions amplify productivity shocks and may generate multiple equilibria. If it is impossible to screen entrepreneurs then all agents unanimously support a tax on entrepreneurs that drives out the less talented ones. However, if screening is possible, e.g., if wealthy entrepreneurs can provide collateral for their loans, then wealthy entrepreneurs do not support surplus enhancing taxes.     

OPTIMAL PRICE SETTING IN FIXED‐ODDS BETTING MARKETS UNDER INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY

This paper develops a model of optimal pricing under information uncertainty for fixed‐odds betting markets. The model suggests that bookmakers require a premium for quoting the odds several days before an event. This premium reflects the uncertainty of public information that can be exploited by expert bettors. The model predicts that when bookmakers set optimal prices, expected returns to bettors increase as a monotonic function of winning probabilities. In this manner, an information‐based explanation is given for the celebrated favourite‐longshot bias in fixed‐odds. Using an extensive data‐set of football odds from two major European bookmakers, we estimate the probability of informed betting.     

The effect of lender and loan type on a borrowing firm’s equity return

Past empirical studies appear to support the idea that banks and finance companies do not differ in their ability to resolve adverse selection problems associated with issuing new debt. In this article, we find there is a difference. More specifically, using an event study we find larger abnormal returns for secured loan disclosures to lower quality borrowers when the lender is a finance company versus a bank. This suggests the market views finance companies as more effective than banks in evaluating/monitoring lower quality borrowers obtaining secured loans. We posit this is due to finance companies’ greater expertise in this type of lending, resulting from specialization. Our findings extend the literature on how lender identity can influence signals about firm value from loan disclosures. Our results also support recent findings that positive abnormal returns to borrowing firms may not be a general feature across the loan population, but may be restricted to smaller, lower quality borrowers. Finally, we are the first to provide evidence that the market takes loan type into account, not just lender and borrower type, when considering the information embedded in loan disclosures.     

Profit Warnings and the Pricing Behavior of ADRs

We assess the pricing behavior of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in response to information about their profitability. Specifically, we test for leakage effects and lagged effects, and we assess the cross-sectional variation in market inefficiencies related to profit warnings by foreign firms listed on U.S. stock exchanges as ADRs. Foreign firms experience strong negative valuation effects at the time of the profit warning. Furthermore, there are pronounced leakage effects, which suggests that some market participants were able to capitalize on inside information before the profit warnings were issued. We also find statistically significant evidence of a three-day lag effect following the profit warning, which suggests that investors who did not have inside information could profit from a warning. When using the leakage as a proxy, the degree of market inefficiency is more pronounced for firms in the technology sector, but the extent of government ownership or countries of origin are not significant determinants of market revaluation following a profit warning. Overall, the pricing behavior of ADRs in response to profit information allows for potential arbitrage opportunities.