货币错配与银行危机和货币危机

货币错配是新兴市场在经济全球化过程中所无法避免的问题,它具有净外币负债和净外币资产两种表现形式.在新兴市场中,只要其银行体系存在大规模的货币错配,不管表现为哪一种形式,都会增加其金融体系的脆弱性;而且在宏观或微观经济基本面恶化的情况下,可能引发银行危机甚至是货币危机.此外,当出现不利冲击时,银行体系中存在货币错配将会导致其资产和负债的期限错配进一步恶化.     

银行的影子:风险分担还是风险传染

银行的影子业务作为中国影子银行的一部分,主要指银行近年来所主导的存在监管不足或规避监管的业务,银行通过银银、银信、银证、银保等之间的合作而形成同业资产或负债,这将使银行之间及银行与其他非银行金融机构之间的关联性发生改变,从而进一步影响银行的系统性风险.本文以2009-2014年16家内地上市银行为样本,研究银行的影子业务规模与系统性风险之间的关系.实证研究发现,银行的影子业务与银行系统性风险之间呈显著的U型关系,在银行的影子业务发展初期,银行间通过风险共担(risk-sharing)确实能降低系统性风险,但随着银行的影子业务进一步发展,银行间通过风险传染(risk-contagion)的金融加速作用而增大银行的系统性风险.     

国际货币危机理论综述

随着国际货币危机的频繁发生,国际货币危机理论也日趋活跃。这类理论主要集中在对国际货币危机产生的原因和传染机制两方面进行解释。文章首先介绍了解释国际货币危机产生原因的三代理论模型,然后概括了有关货币危机国际传染机制的相关理论和模型,最后综合分析了现有货币危机理论的意义和存在的问题,以期对以后的理论研究有所帮助。     

集体行动、风险分担与土地流转

社会保障水平的不断提升和地权稳定性的不断强化并未扭转中国农村土地流转增速持续下滑的颓势。利用2015年中国家庭金融调查数据检验集体行动对农村土地流转的影响并探讨可能的作用机制。研究结果表明：集体行动程度的提高显著促进了农户土地转出决策,但对农户土地转入行为存在抑制作用。此外,集体行动对农户土地转出决策的促进作用对处于成长期和稳定期的农户和转移就业的农户表现更加明显。具体的作用机制有两条：一是“集体行动—失地风险下降—土地转出增加”,二是“集体行动—土地质量损耗风险下降—土地转出增加”。进一步研究发现,集体行动提高了农村土地流转的时间交易成本,因而需要警惕集体行动在促进农村土地转出中可能存在的“搭便车”行为。     

民营企业创新风险分担机制个案研究

建立民营企业创新风险分担机制有利于解决民营企业的后顾之忧,促进民营企业的转型升级和可持续发展。浙江省是我国民营经济最发达地区之一,民营经济对地方经济的支撑作用明显。因此,以浙江省为个案,研究其民营企业创新风险分担机制存在的问题并提出对策,对全国其他地区发展民营经济有一定的指导意义。     

美国次级债危机影响为何如此之大——基于风险分担视角的解释

本文从金融体系风险分担机制变迁的视角对美国次级债危机进行了剖析和解读。风险较高的次级住房抵押贷款在美国住房抵押市场中所占份额很小,而出现违约的次级住房抵押贷款所占比例就更小。这样一个小小的损失,如果是在30年以前,对整个市场并不会形成太大冲击,而在今天则对美国市场以及发达国家市场造成巨大冲击。风险和冲击为何会如此之大,我们研究发现,正是金融体系风险分担机制变迁导致次级债的风险由放贷机构转移到金融市场,而且金融市场横向风险分担机制在某些环节放大了次级债的风险。     

网络结构、危机传染与系统性风险

异质的金融网络结构中,危机传染效应所引起的系统性风险不同。本文基于复杂网络理论,研究随机网络、小世界网络和无标度网络这三种金融网络中危机传染对系统性风险的影响。首先构建有向加权的银行间随机网络、小世界网络和无标度网络,并根据网络结构确定网络中每个银行的资产负债表。其次模拟分析两类随机冲击和两类目标冲击下,不同网络结构中风险传染所引起的系统性风险状况。结果显示：无标度网络面对冲击时的稳定性更高,但当连接最多的银行遭受冲击时,这种网络结构极端脆弱;随机网络面对目标冲击具有最高的稳定性,但面对随机冲击则更加不稳定;金融网络呈现出“稳健而脆弱”的特性。     

网络结构、危机传染与系统性风险

异质的金融网络结构中,危机传染效应所引起的系统性风险不同。本文基于复杂网络理论,研究随机网络、小世界网络和无标度网络这三种金融网络中危机传染对系统性风险的影响。首先构建有向加权的银行间随机网络、小世界网络和无标度网络,并根据网络结构确定网络中每个银行的资产负债表。其次模拟分析两类随机冲击和两类目标冲击下,不同网络结构中风险传染所引起的系统性风险状况。结果显示：无标度网络面对冲击时的稳定性更高,但当连接最多的银行遭受冲击时,这种网络结构极端脆弱;随机网络面对目标冲击具有最高的稳定性,但面对随机冲击则更加不稳定;金融网络呈现出“稳健而脆弱”的特性。     

阿根廷经济危机与全球化遭遇挫折

拉丁美洲最先卷入了全球化进程，阿根廷是西方媒体称赞的全球化楷模，但近来阿根廷却爆发了严重经济危机，导致拉美出现了反全球化的新浪潮。     

Financial Globalization,International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing*

In spite of two decades of financial globalization, consumption‐based indicators do not seem to signal more international risk sharing. We argue that the fraction of idiosyncratic consumption risk that gets shared among industrialized countries has actually increased considerably over the period 1980–2000 and, in particular, during the 1990s—from around 30 to more than 60 percent. However, standard consumption‐based measures of risk sharing—such as the volatility of consumption conditional on output or international consumption correlations—have been unable to detect this increase because consumption has also been affected by the concurrent decline in the volatility of output growth in most industrialized countries since the 1980s. First, the volatility of output at business‐cycle frequencies has declined by more than has the volatility of permanent fluctuations. Since consumption reacts mainly to permanent shocks, it appears more volatile in relation to current changes in output. This effect seems to have offset the tendency of financial globalization to lower the volatility of consumption conditional on output. Second, because the variability of permanent global shocks has also fallen, international consumption correlations have also generally not increased as financial markets have become more integrated.     

关于货币危机后经济衰退的经验分析

文章以1990年以来的近200次货币危机为样本,对货币危机后的经济衰退进行了经验分析.研究发现,危机前的经常账户状况、外债余额占GDP比例、国际流动性指标等经济变量以及危机后的汇率制度都不会显著影响到危机后的经济衰退.另外,危机后的经济衰退与危机国政府在危机中是否抛售外汇储备、是否采取汇率贬值都没有明显关系.但是经济分析的结果表明,危机前的失业率和汇率制度以及危机中是否提高利率等因素对危机后的经济衰退有显著作用.     

全面制度创新 适应经济全球化—二十一世纪中国面临的挑战

经济全球化曾给中国带来了经济繁荣,而对今后却构成一个严峻的挑战.作者认为,随着改革的推进,政府与城市民众的关系可能会出现严重的社会冲突.只有通过制度改革才能找到解决中国变革难题的出路.     

经济全球化时代的劳动就业危机

一、经济全球化进程中的劳动就业危机１经济全球化使劳动就业岗位的创造者——公司与企业的竞争压力越来越大。首先，经济全球化下，企业把短期赢利、交易所牌价和股东利益，放在了比增加就业更重要的地位。其次，提高企业竞争力的有效途径是技术进步和企业组织结构的改革。而企业技术的进步，劳动生产率的提高，对工人来讲，就是被解雇；而以取消传统的管理层次、缩小工种分类、建立工作小组、培训多面手员工、缩短生产和分配流程、简化行政管理为内容的企业组织结构的改革，也正在使大批管理人员失业。２经济全球化使社会福利国家变成…     

The Asian Crisis and Economic Change in China

During the Asian crisis, China's healthy reserves and low debt helped avoid a "country run", yet China did experience an apparently autonomous rise in private savings, a rise in capital outflow and a slowdown in growth. We employ global general equilibrium analysis to examine the relative contributions of external and internal shocks in China during the crisis. The savings rise appears to have been dominant domestically and, by coincidence, was a significant contributor to the international effects of the crisis. The successful defence of fixed US$ parity, however, made the combined shocks more contractionary than if the exchange rate regime had been more flexible. JEL Classification Numbers: C68, E65, F41, O11.     

中国在经济全球化中地位的变迁及其启示

本文在考察经济全球化即世界经济体系历史演变的基础上，分析了中国在经济全球化的不同时期所处的不同地位。在经济全球化历史中，中国的地位经历了一个“中心——弱势——崛起”的变迁过程。透过中国在经济全球化中地位的变迁，为批判“中国威胁论”、人类历史终结于西方模式等错误观点以及为正确认识理解中国在近代以前的社会经济状况和21世纪实现中华民族的伟大复兴提供了一个全新的视角。     

Explaining Russia's Currency and Financial Crisis

The paper attempts to sketch a framework for understanding Russia's August 1998 financial and currency crises with reference to the main theories put forward so far. Our thesis is that, while not fitting easily into any pre-existing framework, the Russian crises shares many features of first-generation models inasmuch as it was largely due to inconsistencies among an overvalued peg, tight money, and an evident inability to address the fiscal deficit. In other terms, it derived from the incompatibility between standard IMF stabilisation policies and the difficulties that Russia was facing as a transition economy. On the other hand, by touching both currency markets and the banking sector, the Russian Episode shares also important features of the twin crises framework.The analysis considers the role of exchange rate movements and capital flows on Russia's rising vulnerability, fiscal problems and the building up of the public debt. It assesses the state of the Russian Banking sector and discusses the contagion effects of the Asian crisis and policy response. It shows how the core of the Russian crises lies in an unsound, IMF-backed, defence of the rouble, which in 1998 had become increasingly unsustainable.     

Narrating Crisis,Constructing Policy: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in Syria

During crises, ideas play a decisive role in shaping radical paradigm shifts in economic governance. However, not all crises immediately produce such ‘great transformations’. Why do some ideas result in incremental rather than abrupt change after crisis? To identify mechanisms potentially explaining this variation, I conduct an exploratory process tracing of an understudied case of incremental institutional change: post-independence Syria. Competing political actors in Syria converged on identical policy responses to crisis despite their very different interpretations of its causes. Although power oscillated between these increasingly bitter rivals in the early 1950s, their ideational consensus on economic issues nevertheless led to a decade of steady institutional change that transformed previously fragile government institutions into powerful vehicles of statism. I derive from this analysis the potential causal significance of two new variables – crisis narrative and crisis response – and hypothesise that their configuration can explain variation in post-crisis patterns of institutional change. Ideas can explain not only the new direction of economic governance after crisis, but also the speed and scale of its movement.