Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behavior in Developing Countries

The determinants of savings generally and the specific effectsof government policies on savings and consumption are pivotalforces in investment and economic growth. The Hall hypothesisstates that consumption is a function of lifetime ("permanent")income, rather than income in each period independently. Changesin interest and tax rates, money supply, or government expenditurewill affect permanent income and hence consumption and savingsonly if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporatedin the estimation of permanent income. We are unable to rejectthe Hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when weallow for varying interest rates. We do find evidence of a negativeeffect of inflation on consumption, and a positive relationshipbetween the real interest rate and consumption. The evidencefor the Hall hypothesis also suggests that Ricardian equivalencemay be valid—this is Barro's hypothesis that the effecton savings is the same whether government deficits are financedthrough taxation or debt. Our preliminary testing, however,does not support Ricardian equivalence.     

储蓄与储蓄缺口--对发展经济学教科书"储蓄缺口"判断标准的质疑

在标准的发展经济学教科书中，一般都将I—S缺口作为判断储蓄缺口是否存在的依据。本文从国民经济核算的角度对此提出疑义，认为此标准与较早对储蓄缺口问题进行系统研究的先行者罗森斯坦——罗丹的解释不符。按照对储蓄含义的剖析，在资本自由流动的今天，I-S缺口并不能完全反映一国真实的储蓄供求状况，而中国在此基础上所兼有的巨额存差和银行呆坏帐则表明，中国经济发展面临的约束条件已经由储蓄不足演变为储蓄过剩。     

经济转轨时期我国城镇居民的预防性储蓄行为研究

本文在回顾预防性储蓄理论及实证研究的基础上,运用我国城镇数据,从定量角度对经济转轨时期我国城镇居民的预防性储蓄行为进行深入研究,实证研究结果显示：我国城镇居民消费对利率变动的敏感性不高,解释了近年来我国利率政策有效性不足的原因;预防性储蓄在我国城镇居民消费决策中是存在并且显著的,最后提出相应政策建议。     

The Impact of Regulatory Changes on the Risk-Taking Behavior of State Chartered Savings Banks

This study investigates changes in the risk-taking behavior of state chartered savings banks resulting from three types of regulatory changes: the expansion of asset investment powers contained in the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 and the Garn–St Germain Depository Institutions Act (DIA) of 1982, the authority to change organizational structure from mutual to stock form contained in the Financial Institutions Regulatory and Interest Rate Control Act of 1978 and DIA, and the change in intensity of regulatory oversight contained in the Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery, and Enforcement Act of 1989. Using data for New York state chartered savings banks for the period 1986 to 1991, the analysis found mixed results for the asset deregulation hypothesis that institutions eventually placed on the problem bank list invested more in deregulated assets. Strong support was found for the organizational structure hypothesis that stock savings banks have greater incentives to pursue value-maximizing levels of risk by using more leverage, growing at faster rates, and increasing credit risk. This finding suggests that the regulatory changes that permitted mutual to stock conversions may have had a significant negative impact on the severity of the thrift crisis. The results also suggest that increased regulatory scrutiny limited the risk-taking of New York state chartered savings banks after 1988.     

流动性滞存与通货紧缩

通货紧缩是近年来困扰我国经济的一个难题。本提出流动性滞存原理，用来解释我国的通货紧缩现象，对该原理与此前有关原理的承继和发展关系，以及有关的方法论问题进行了尝试性的研究，并依此原理提出缓解我国通货紧缩的方法。     

邮政储蓄改革的变迁与邮政储蓄银行设立的再思考

从邮政储蓄银行的设立角度入手分析邮政储蓄改革的进程,以邮政储蓄改革的变迁为主线,对我国20年来的邮政储蓄问题进行重新梳理,认为,虽然邮政储蓄银行的设立符合渐进式市场化改革的思路,但由于缺乏全面考虑邮政储蓄改革的基础条件和没有认识到政府因素的介入,邮政储蓄银行的设立并非是邮政储蓄改革一劳永逸的方案,邮政储蓄改革未来的发展道路仍然很漫长。     

浅析国外储蓄国债管理经验对我国的启示

由于我国金融市场不断发展,金融产品不断丰富,储蓄国债面临极大的竞争。长期以来我国储蓄国债创新不足,发展停滞。本文分析了我国储蓄国债存在的主要问题,结合国外相对成熟的管理经验,提出相应合理化的建议。     

人口结构变化与居民储蓄率

本文以1991—2014年全球范围内的91个经济体为样本,研究了人口结构变化对储蓄率的影响。本文认为,在人口结构变化方面,造成我国高储蓄率的一个重要原因是由于预期寿命的提高带来的"未雨绸缪"的储蓄动机抵消甚至超过了老龄人口负担上升的负效应。未来,随着人口结构比较优势的衰减,人口红利进一步消退,中国需要运用有效的政策组合,以应对日益严峻的人口老龄化挑战。     

Home Equity,Household Savings and Consumption

The home-owning family’s equity is a piggybank that can be broken open by borrowing. Each borrowing increases liabilities and cash equally, initially leaving net wealth unchanged. When those funds are spent and cash balances fall, consumption increases even as net wealth can decline. In a dynamic optimization, the marginal propensity to consume from net wealth is not always positive and can be positively correlated with housing debt.

Bank Competition with Financing and Savings Substitutes

This paper models the banking competition in loan and deposit markets on two levels. We measure the competition among different banks and among banks and non-bank financing and saving alternatives. We estimate a model of demand, cost, and market equilibrium equations for differentiated products by using data from the confidential reports that Spanish banks provide to the Bank of Spain during the period from 1988 to 2003. This database contains information on the effective interest rates on new loans and deposits, and the expected loan losses obtained from the Spanish Credit Register. The estimated price elasticities show that the products offered by different banks are close substitutes, which puts pressure on the banks’ profits margins. However, the substitutability between bank and non-bank products is much lower than the substitutability among products offered by different banks. The results also show that Spain’s entrance into the Eurozone did not cause a structural change in the demand and cost conditions of Spanish banks. The banks financed most of the imbalances between bank loans and domestic deposits before the crisis through the interbank market.     

欧盟利息税指令评述

欧盟利息税指令的出台历经坎坷。利息支付情况的信息交换制度是该指令的核心,同时指令还在过渡期内规定了预提税制度,从而有效地协调了支付地国、税收居民国和受益人之间的利益。     

A Multiproduct Cost Study of Savings and Loans

This paper investigates the cost structure of savings and loans. Most studies of financial institutions have failed to take into account the multiproduct nature of these institutions. Using the multiproduct approach, the existence of subadditivity, multiproduct global and product-specific economies of scale and scope, and substitutability between inputs is investigated. A translogarithmic cost function is estimated using 1982 data on California savings and loans. Restrictive functional forms also estimated are rejected. Standard errors for the statistics calculated are estimated, and various statistical tests are conducted. Previous authors have not calculated standard errors for these statistics. No evidence of subadditivity in the industry is found.     

A Disequilibrium Model of Savings and Loan Associations

This paper discusses the consistent specification and estimation of asset demand equations in a disequilibrium model of financial markets. We estimate the effective asset demands of savings and loan associations, allowing for rationing in the mortgage market. These disequilibrium estimates are not very different from the estimates of notional demands with no rationing assumed. Savings and loans seem to be least affected by excess demand situations in that they are apparently not reluctant to raise mortgage rates and/or to ration borrowers.     

中国凭证式国债运行中存在的问题与对策

凭证式国债是满足投资者需要、为中央政府筹集资金的有效手段，是中国现阶段国债市场必不可少的重要工具之一。透过对凭证式国债运行的剖析，借鉴西方国家的经济和做法，研究建立适合中国国情的凭证式国债代销及流通转让制度，是拓宽凭证式国债功能，充分发挥凭证式国债作用的有效途径。     

The Economics of Housing Savings Plans

Housing Savings Plans (HSP) are contractual savings products in which a household is granted a mortgage at preferential terms (or option for such) in exchange for accumulating savings in the plan and in the institution offering it. As such, they represent a bundle of savings and borrowing financial services. While such plans are common in some countries, the reasons for their use have not been fully explored. In some cases, HSPs are used because financial markets and institutions have not reached sufficient levels of development to attract savings or raise capital for housing finance, and in other cases, tax and subsidy incentives may be at play. Here, we ask under which circumstances households and financial institutions will voluntarily contract to participate in HSPs even in advanced capital markets and in the absence of tax/subsidy incentives. We argue that the HSPs may be chosen by households because of their hedging qualities. We model HSPs and show how changes in variables affect the willingness of households to join the HSP and the characteristics of any HSP chosen.     

合会组织的是与非

2004年,福建省福安市发生大规模标会倒会风波,涉案金额约9亿元。这一风波使人们对包括标会在内的合会组织的合法性和安全性的怀疑抬头。一些政府官员干脆“果敢”地对标会等合会组织贴上“非法”的标签。其实,包括合会在内的民间借贷对于农村经济社会的发展发挥着较大的建设性作用,安全性较高,违约率低,应该肯定其作用,允许其存在和发展。政府可以更多地在对合会风险提出预警方面发挥作用。