The impact of tariff reductions on firm dynamics and productivity in China: Does market-oriented transition matter?

This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics and productivity in the context of dramatic tariff reductions after China's accession to the WTO, and how this impact varies across regions with different marketization levels. Our results show that (a) on average, output tariff reductions tend to reduce firm entry rate and increase firm exit rate, while input tariff reductions help to increase both firm entry rate and exit rate, furthermore, regional marketization strengthens the impact of trade liberalization on firm dynamics; (b) trade liberalization exerts greater impact on the likelihood of exit for the least productive firms while it tends to reduce the probability of exit for the more productive firms, with regional marketization strengthening such a reallocation process of trade liberalization; (c) firm dynamics effect contributes approximately 43% of the growth of productivity, and it (especially the firm exit effect) is an important channel through which trade liberalization fosters productivity growth, and domestic market reform is found to strengthen such an impact.     

Endogenous market structure and foreign market entry

Models dealing with cross-border acquisitions versus greenfield investment usually assume that the entry of a foreign firm into a market has effects on the outputs of all domestic firms in that market, but exit or entry of local firms is not considered. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the acquisition versus greenfield versus exporting question under fixed versus free entry assumptions for local firms. Our finding is that greenfield entry and exporting options are more attractive relative to acquisition when the local market structure adjusts to foreign entry through local entry or exit than when it is fixed. With respect to welfare in the host economy, existing theory models and policy discussions maintain that the effects of greenfield versus acquisition entry differ substantially. We show that under free entry and exit, there is no difference between the two for consumer surplus, but acquisition improves welfare a little through rent extraction by the local acquired firm. Thus the existing conventional wisdom may be leading to inappropriate policy choices by host governments.     

The role of foreign direct investment in the host-country firm selection process: firm-level evidence from Slovenian manufacturing

This paper examines the role of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in firm selection processes in the Slovenian manufacturing sector in the 1994–2003 period. It adopts the firm dynamics framework that allows testing of selection effects directly by assessing the impact of foreign firms’ activity on the probability of exiting of local firms (crowding out). The results show that intra-industry productivity spillover effects offset only a minor part of the competition pressure which results from foreign firm entry, hence incumbent firms experience a drop in their survival probability upon a foreign firm’s entry within a particular industry. This result is driven by foreign firm entry of the greenfield type, as entry through the acquisition of existing firms has no significant effect. The strength of the crowding-out effect decreases with the incumbent firm’s export propensity. There is no significant evidence that inward FDI would stimulate the selection process through backward linkages in the upstream supplying industries, whereas foreign firms’ activity reduces the exit probability of downstream local customers (through forward linkages).     

Environmental regulation,firm heterogeneity,and intra-industry reallocation

We describe a model with firm heterogeneity and endogenous pollution abatement to show how emission intensity and exit/entry selections vary across firms. Using Chinese firm-level emission and production data, we find evidence that low productivity firms have higher emission intensity. The emission intensity of firms with productivity below 10 percentile is 5.26 times larger than firms with productivity above 90 percentile. Combining the Annual Survey of Chinese Industrial Enterprises (CIE) data, and applying a triple-difference research design, we find that firms with high emission intensity or low productivity have a higher probability of exit when exposed to strict environmental policy. We also find the exit of unproductive firms contributes to aggregate productivity and strict environmental policy can help to reduce misallocation.     

Marginal Distance: Does Export Experience Reduce Firm Trade Costs?

Are the costs of exporting to a market reduced if a firm has experience of exporting to a neighbouring market? If so, does this effect operate through reducing entry barriers or by increasing sales once the firm is operating in the market? This paper examines linkages between current export destinations and entry, sales and exit for new markets. We find that measures of exporting experience in geographically nearby markets increase the probability of entry into a market and reduce the probability of exit. However, these same measures have very limited effect on the firm’s export sales in the market. The effect of related experience on sales tends to be negative for recently entered firms. We interpret this result in the context of the Melitz heterogeneous-firm model of trade by showing that lower fixed costs reduce the entry threshold, but this lower threshold has the effect of allowing lower-sales marginal firms to be present in the market.     

Not all trade restrictions are created equally

There has been great focus in the recent trade theory literature on the introduction of firm heterogeneity into trade models. This introduction has highlighted the importance of the entry/exit decision of firms in response to changes in trade barriers. However, it is typical in many of these models to use iceberg transport costs as a general form of trade barriers that can be interchangeable with ad valorem tariffs. I show that this is not always an appropriate conclusion. Specifically, I illustrate that profit for an exporter is more elastic in response to tariffs than iceberg transport costs, which affects the entry/exit decision of firms. This has implications for welfare analysis and empirical specifications.     

Effects of presidents’ characteristics on internationalization of small and medium firms in Japan

Recent heterogeneous-firm models of international trade suggest that productivity determines whether firms engage in export activity and foreign direct investment. In practice, however, many productive firms are not internationalized, whereas many unproductive firms are, which suggests that there are factors other than productivity that influence firms’ internationalization. This study uses a unique panel data set for Japanese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to examine whether the personal characteristics of a firm’s president are factors in firm internationalization. We find that SMEs with a risk-tolerant, forward-looking president are more likely to be internationalized. These effects are large in magnitude, as is the productivity effect, which provides a partial explanation as to why many productive firms are not internationalized. In addition, we find that productivity has an insignificant effect on firms exiting export markets, whereas presidential myopia increases the probability of exit. The evidence further suggests that a firm’s initial export costs become sunk following its entry into export markets, which explains why many unproductive firms are internationalized.     

Do domestic and foreign exporters differ in learning by exporting? Evidence from China

In view of the importance of intra-firm trade and export-platform FDI conducted by multinationals, we investigate how domestic firms and foreign affiliates exhibited differential impacts of export entry and exit on productivity changes. Using a comprehensive dataset from China's manufacturing industries, we employ the Olley–Pakes method to estimate firm-level TFP and the matching techniques to isolate the impacts of export participation on firm productivity. Robust evidence is obtained that domestic firms displayed significant productivity gains (losses) upon export entry (exit), whereas foreign affiliates showed no evident TFP changes. Moreover, the productivity gains for domestic export starters were more pronounced in high- and medium-technology industries than in low-technology ones. We explain our findings from the perspective of the technology gap theory after considering processing trade and the fragmentation of production stages in the era of globalization.     

Misallocation in Chinese Manufacturing and Services: A Variable Markup Approach

Cross‐country comparison reveals an unusually small service sector in China. Using firm‐level data from China's 2008 economic census, we find two facts that speak to a novel mechanism of misallocation within service and between manufacturing and service sectors. First, compared with the manufacturing sector, there are more state‐owned enterprises and fewer entrants in the service sector. Second, markups increase with firm size, and the increase is more dramatic among service firms. We interpret these facts through the lens of a monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous firms and variable markups. A multisector model shows a new channel that translates asymmetric barriers to entry across sectors into sectoral markup differences, which in turn cause sectoral misallocation. Quantitative analysis shows that when reducing entry barriers to service firms to the extent observed for manufacturing firms, the model predicts a 12‐percentage‐point increase in the service employment share.     

IT,enterprise reform,and productivity in Chinese manufacturing firms

This paper is a first attempt at examining the impact that Information Technology (IT) and enterprise reform have on the productivity of Chinese manufacturing firms by using large-scale firm level datasets from 1995 to 2002. It is found that enterprise reforms captured by the entry and exit of firms have had a positive impact on aggregated productivity growth. In addition, IT plays a relatively important role in the productivity performance of post-reform enterprises, as opposed to enterprises which are not affected by major restructuring in the course of Chinese state-owned enterprise reforms.     

中国企业对外直接投资的微观障碍分析——基于生产率异质性理论的分析方法

论文以Melitz(2003)的生产率异质性方法为基础,以湖南省87家"走出去"企业为例进行经验分析。研究发现:从生产率总体水平看,没有1家企业4项指标都达标准分值,无优势企业特征明显;投资主体的企业性质和组织方式直接制约企业"走出去"生产率水平的提升;在投资决策和经营战略层面都存在异质企业行为趋同现象,严重影响投资后的整合竞合绩效和可持续发展。结果表明,无优势企业对外投资可能会出现Melitz(2003)提出的产业内演进效应,面临典型的进入-退出轨迹。为此,论文从中国国际生产网络及其组织机制的构建进行策略设计,提出依托国际生产组织、促成企业与政府合力是推进当前我国无优势企业对外投资的有效路径。     

Pollution control and foreign firms’ exit behavior in China

China faces a common dilemma of how to maintain rapid economic growth while also reducing the pollution that has accompanied growth. Will stricter pollution controls drive away the foreign firms that have helped spur growth in China? This paper studies the effects of the Two-Control-Zone (TCZ) pollution control policy on foreign firms’ exit behavior in China. Based on firm-level data from 1998 to 2009, we find that foreign firms’ responses are not significantly different from domestic firms on average once environmental regulations impose an added cost of business. However, foreign firms’ responses to stricter pollution controls tend to differ based on various firm characteristics. Our estimation indicates that larger size, higher productivity and exporting all make foreign firms less likely to exit than similar domestic firms in regions with stricter pollution control.     

Multi‐Market Competition,R&D,and Welfare in Oligopoly

We investigate a multi‐market Cournot model with strategic process research and development (R&D) investments wherein a multi‐market firm meets new competitors that enter one of the markets. We show that entry can enhance the total R&D expenditures of the multi‐market firm. Moreover, the incumbent's profit nonmonotonically changes as the number of entrants increases. Depending on the fixed entry costs and R&D technologies, both insufficient and excess entry can appear. Our results imply that diversification of their products can be a useful strategy for firms.     

Business reforms and total factor productivity in Vietnamese manufacturing

Vietnam implemented reforms in the 2000s to ease start-up of new businesses with dramatic effect on firm entry and market competition. This study examines firm level data for the period 2000–2010 to analyze total factor productivity (TFP) in connection with the reforms, adopting a semi-parametric technique developed by Wooldridge (2009) and Petrin and Levinsohn (2012) to measure TFP. Intensified competition is hypothesized to have driven convergence of TFP within industrial sectors as technologies best suited to Vietnamese market conditions became more widely implemented. The evidence strongly supports this hypothesis with convergence found for 16 of the 17 sectors analyzed. Further, comparison of TFP growth rates between the first and second half of the decade shows mixed results by sector and region. More often than not, TFP growth is seen to have slowed over time. This suggests that competition acted not only to push low TFP firms to exit the market or raise productivity, it also discouraged use of technologies that may have been overly advanced and not cost efficient for Vietnam.     

Consumer discrimination,duopoly, and black firm entry: The welfare effect of subsidies

Consumer discrimination, to the extent that it lowers expected profit for black owned firms, discourages the entry of new black firms. From a social welfare perspective, consumer discrimination may be welfare reducing, since market output is lower than otherwise. If so, a policy intervention that subsidizes new black firms may improve social welfare. This article presents a simple model of duopoly where consumer discrimination exists with uncertainty, and the only cost of production is a “loss of sales” cost. Given the Nash equilibrium, in which a black and white firm must select a price to charge, conditions are derived for which a profit subsidy to a new black firm increases, decreases, or has no effect on social welfare.     

Geography and firm exports: new evidence on the nature of sunk costs

This paper presents an examination of the trading patterns of individual firms, looking at their coverage of export markets and movements into and out of destinations. This analysis is made possible by access to a new survey data set of Irish firms, which includes detailed information on firm characteristics and on the destinations of their exports over a 2-year period. In line with Eaton et al. (Am Econ Rev 94:150–154, 2004), we find that a large number of firms serve only the domestic market and many exporting firms export to a single foreign market. Although there is little movement of firms into and out of exporting, firms’ involvement in individual export markets is much more dynamic. Over one-third of firms change their market coverage, usually by entering or exiting one additional market. This is consistent with an interpretation where the bulk of any sunk cost encountered in exporting is incurred during the initial entry to the export market. Subsequent entry to additional markets may be made easier by prior export experience, which could help reduce the sunk cost of extending market coverage.     

The Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and Exit Strategies of Private Firms

The costs and benefits of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) have been oft‐debated since the inception of the Act. Much of the extant literature has assessed the costs and benefits of SOX to publicly traded companies. We focus on the costs of SOX compliance for private firms wanting to exit the private market via either an acquisition by a public firm or an IPO. Consistent with our predictions we establish two principal findings. First, SOX appears to have shifted the preferences of private firms from going public to exiting the private market via acquisition by a public acquirer. Second, private target deal multiples are increasing in variables that proxy for a private target's level of pre‐acquisition SOX compliance. These findings suggest that SOX‐related costs have both restricted the action space of possible exit strategies for private firms and led to lower deal multiples for those private acquisition targets that are less likely to be SOX compliant prior to acquisition.     

Do Market Pressures Induce Economic Efficiency? The Case of Slovenian Manufacturing, 1994–2001

Using a unique longitudinal data set on all manufacturing firms in Slovenia from 1994 to 2001, this article analyzes how firm efficiency changed in response to changing competitive pressures associated with the transition to market. Results show that the period was one of atypically rapid growth of total factor productivity (TFP). The rise in firm efficiency occurs across almost all industries and firm types: large or small, state or private, domestic or foreign owned. Changes in firm ownership type have no direct impact on firm efficiency. However, increased market competition related to rising market share of private firms, new market entrants, foreign‐owned firms, and international trade raises TFP across all firms in an industry, whether private or state owned. In addition, competitive pressures that sort out inefficient firms of all types and retain the most efficient, coupled with the entry of new private firms that are at least as efficient as surviving firms, prove to be the major source of TFP gains. Results strongly confirm that market competition fosters efficiency.     

Heterogeneous Popularity and Exporting Uncertainty

Empirical work shows that a considerable fraction of firms quit the export market soon after entrance. A natural interpretation to this quick exit from the export market is that firms did not predict the profitability of their variety correctly before entry. In this paper a firm heterogeneity model is put forward to account for this type of exporting uncertainty due to lack of information. Firms are heterogeneous with respect to the popularity of their good, technically the CES weight, and the popularity of a good varies across markets. Therefore, firms are uncertain about the profitability of their good in the export market. Upon payment of sunk export costs the popularity of the good is revealed and some firms stay in the export market while others leave. Comparative statics show that lower sunk export costs lead to higher probability that firms start to export, but to lower probability of export success. Lower fixed export costs instead lead to both a higher probability to start exporting and to be successful in exporting.     

Productivity,Exit, and Crisis in the Manufacturing and Service Sectors

Using micro data from the manufacturing and service sectors in Uruguay, we analyze the relationship between firm exit and firm productivity. We find that even during profound crisis years, when the financial sector collapsed, exit of firms is associated with lower productivity. This suggests that even in the presence of severe financial friction, cleansing effects dominate the scarring or sullying effect of recessions.