MIT Roundtable on Corporate Risk Management

Against the backdrop of financial crisis, a distinguished group of academics and practitioners discusses the contribution of financial management and innovation to corporate growth and value, along with the pitfalls and unintended consequences of such innovation. The main focus of most panelists is the importance of a capital structure and risk management approach that complement the strategy and operations of the business. Instructive examples are provided by Judy Lewent, former CFO and head of strategic planning at Merck, and Lakshmi Shyam‐Sunder, director of finance and risk management at the International Finance Corporation. But if these represent successful applications of finance theory, what about the large number of cases where the use of derivatives and other innovations has led to high leverage and apparent risk management failures? Part of the current trouble, as pointed out by Andrew Lo, can be attributed to the failure of risk managers and their models to account for highly improbable events—the so‐called fat tails of the distribution. But, as Robert Merton suggests in closing, there is a more comprehensive explanation for today's problems: the tendency of market participants to respond to potentially risk‐reducing financial innovation by increasing their risk‐taking in other areas. “What we have here,” says Merton,

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Morgan Stanley Roundtable on Enterprise Risk Management and Corporate Strategy

In a roundtable hosted by Morgan Stanley, a group of corporate risk officers, consultants, and bankers discuss the state of corporate risk management. The discussion focused on a number of questions: What is the primary goal of risk management, and how does it add value for shareholders? What risks do companies “get paid” to bear (for example, should oil companies hedge oil price risk or banks hedge interest rates)? And, given the accounting obstacles that FAS 133 has put in the way of would be hedgers, should companies continue to hedge exposures—and, to the extent their hedges produce “artificial” earnings volatility, how should they communicate the aims and accomplishments of their risk management program to rating agencies and investors?     

Lessons from the Financial Crisis on Risk and Capital Management: The Case of Insurance Companies

This article proposes that risk management be viewed as an integral part of the corporate value‐creation process— one in which the concept of economic capital can provide companies with the financial cushion and confidence to carry out their strategic plans. Using the case of insurance and reinsurance companies, the authors discuss three main ways that the integration of risk and capital management creates value:

• 1 strengthening solvency (by limiting the probability of financial distress);
• 2 increasing prospects for profitable growth (by preserving access to capital during post‐loss periods); and
• 3 improving transparency (by increasing the “information content” or “signaling power” of reported earnings).

Insurers can manage solvency risk by using Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) models to limit the probability of financial distress to levels consistent with the firm's specified risk tolerance. While ERM models are effective in managing “known” risks, we discuss three practices widely used in the insurance industry to manage “unknown” and “unknowable” risks using the logic of real options—slack, mutualization, and incomplete contracts. Second, risk management can create value by securing sources of capital that, like contingent capital, can be used to fund profitable growth opportunities that tend to arise in periods following large losses. Finally, the authors argue that risk management can raise the confidence of investors in their estimates of future growth by removing the “noise” in earnings that comes from bearing non‐core risks, thereby making current earnings a more reliable guide to future earnings. In support of this possibility, the authors provide evidence showing that, for a given level of reported return on equity (ROE), (re)insurers with more stable ROEs have higher price‐to‐book ratios, suggesting investors' willingness to pay a premium for the stability provided by risk management.     

Systemic Risk,Financial Crisis,and Credit Risk Insurance

Differing from conventional insurance firms whose underwriting business does not contribute to systemic risk, credit risk insurance companies providing credit protections for debt obligations are exposed to systemic risk. We show that credit risk insurers (CRIs) underperformed conventional insurance companies during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and such underperformance is attributed to the greater systemic risk of CRIs. We also find that the credit spreads of insured bonds increase significantly after their insurers are downgraded or put in the negative watch list. We control for alternative factors affecting bond credit spreads and the result is robust.     

保险与企业风险管理

企业在日常生产经营活动中会遇到各种风险，开展和加强风险管理已成为维护企业生存与发展必不可少的工作，同时也是现代企业管理的一项重要内容，企业风险管理必须从认识风险、选择风险管理方法入手，其中，保险已成为企业开展风险管理的一项重要管理手段。企业必须正确地运用保险为自己的管理服务，同时，保险也要在企业管理中不断创新和发展。     

Risk Management Lessons from the Credit Crisis

Risk management, even if flawlessly executed, does not guarantee that big losses will not occur. Big losses can occur because of business decisions and bad luck. Even so, the events of 2007 and 2008 have highlighted serious deficiencies in risk models. For some firms, risk models failed because of known unknowns. These include model risk, liquidity risk, and counterparty risk. In 2008, risk models largely failed due to unknown unknowns, which include regulatory and structural changes in capital markets. Risk management systems need to be improved and place a greater emphasis on stress tests and scenario analysis. In practice, this can only be based on position-based risk measures that are the basis for modern risk measurement architecture. Overall, this crisis has reinforced the importance of risk management.     

Bayesian Risk Management for Equity-Linked Insurance

This paper describes how to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to a regime switching model of the stock price process to generate a sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of the model. The MCMC output can be used to generate a sample from the predictive distribution of losses from equity linked contracts, assuming first an actuarial approach to risk management and secondly a financial economics approach. The predictive distribution is used to show the effect of parameter uncertainty on risk management calculations. We also explore model uncertainty by assuming a GARCH model in place of the regime switching model. The results indicate that the financial economics approach to risk management is substantially more robust to parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty than the actuarial approach.     

International Evidence on Risk Taking by Banks Around the Global Financial Crisis

This study models the risks of commercial banks from the United States and developed, emerging, and frontier countries while controlling for bank- and country-specific variables within a panel framework. Bank risk is measured by both the traditional Z-score and a composite bank risk index proposed by the authors. The findings suggest that even though the riskiness of all banks from different country groups increased following the financial crisis, the magnitude of the change is not the same across groups. During the post-crisis period, banks in developed, emerging, and frontier countries experienced a smaller increase in their risk compared to their counterparts in the United States. This article provides support for the claim that banks in emerging and frontier countries have experienced the effects of the financial crisis to a lesser extent compared to those in the United States.     

Insurance Market Effects of Risk Management Metrics

We extend the classical analysis on optimal insurance design to the case when the insurer implements regulatory requirements (Value-at-Risk). Presumably, regulators impose some risk management requirement such as VaR to reduce the insurers’ insolvency risk, as well as to improve the insurance market stability. We show that VaR requirements may better protect the insured and improve economic efficiency, but have stringent negative effects on the insurance market. Our analysis reveals that the insured are better protected in the event of greater loss irrespective of the optimal design from either the insured or the insurer perspective. However, in the presence of the VaR requirement on the insurer, the insurer's insolvency risk might be increased and there are moral hazard issues in the insurance market because the optimal contract is discontinuous.     

The Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, and the Future of Insurance Regulation

This article considers the role of American International Group (AIG) and the insurance sector in the 2007–2009 financial crisis and the implications for insurance regulation. Following an overview of the causes of the crisis, I explore the events and policies that contributed to federal government intervention to prevent bankruptcy of AIG and the scope of federal assistance to AIG. I discuss the extent to which insurance in general poses systemic risk and whether a systemic risk regulator is desirable for insurers or other nonbank financial institutions. The last two sections of the article address the financial crisis's implications for proposed optional and/or mandatory federal chartering and regulation of insurers and for insurance regulation in general.     

货币政策转向后的风险管理

防通胀、稳增长已经基本敲定为2011年经济工作的主基调。持续攀高的CPI不断挑战中国经济的神经,控制物价过快上涨是我国当前经济工作的主要任务。就国内银行业而言,在通胀指数不断攀高,货币政策由积极转为稳健的大背景下,提高存款准备金率和加息等一系列举措,预示国内银行业战略转形势仍将延续,货币政策从紧下商业银行的风险管理也必将做出相应对策与调整。为此,《银行家》以货币政策转向后的风险管理为主题举办小型圆桌专家座谈会。以下按发言顺序整理部分嘉宾精彩观点,以飨读者。     

地方政府债务管理及危机处置的国际经验借鉴

地方政府举债是工业化、城市化的必然选择,合理举债有利于地方财政的高效运转,但若监管错位、过度举债则有可能引发债务危机。自2014年起,我国赋予地方政府发债权,随着近年来收益类专项债的扩容,地方政府债务规模不断扩大,同时融资平台、政府引导基金等各种形式的隐性债务风险依然突出。当前地方政府债务风险被视为“灰犀牛”,亟需引起重视和关注。本文通过梳理美国、日本、巴西地方政府债务危机产生的原因和处置方式,总结国外地方政府债务管理和危机处置的有效经验,并结合现阶段我国地方政府债务管理中存在的预算软约束、发行主体单一、债务透明度差、评级和监管缺位、预警和处置机制不完善等主要问题,提出相关对策建议。     

财产保险公司对地震保险的承保管控和风险控制分析

本文通过收集全球地震灾害发生的数据,归纳出全球地震的变化趋势和规律。在此基础上概述了我国地震活动规律和地震带分布特征,并引用稳定分布函数分析了地震损失具有右偏、厚尾、长尾特性,解释了我国地震保险供需矛盾的原因。最后描述了我国财产保险公司对地震风险的控制思路,提出了由政府干预解决市场失灵问题的具体建议。     

次贷危机中重新审视银行风险管理

次贷危机发轫于美国的次级房屋贷款,正演变为一场全球性的金融风暴,在这场危机中,越来越多的国家、金融机构以及大型企业遭受重创.危机给了我们许多的教训,本文试图对银行风险管理所存在的问题予以审视.     

国际金融动荡背景下广西外贸出口风险分析

2008年三季度以来,美国次贷危机逐渐演变为国际金融动荡,并逐渐拖累实体经济,我国外贸出口面临的外部环境出现逆转,外需减弱、各种风险显现.本文从宏观经济、行业、微观企业三大层面,揭示当前国际金融动荡背景下广西外贸出口的主要风险以及企业风险控制手段,并提出了一系列应对同际金融动荡的建议.     

基于CDaR的保险资金运用风险管理模型

基于对国内保险资金投资风险测量的主流方法VaR和CVaR模型的缺陷进行分析后,本文提出将新的风险度量方法CDaR模型引入到国内保险资金的投资风险管理实践,结合我国保险资金投资管理条例中的相关投资风险约束条件和国内金融市场的实际情况,并考虑到保险资金的资产负债匹配管理要求,提出了有投资约束条件下的保险资金风险管理拓展模型.     

论社会风险管理与商业保险新功能

现阶段随着经济水平的不断提高,社会转型期也随之到来,由此引发的社会问题与社会矛盾广泛引起了社会各界的关注。加之在新时代下社会风险状况的恶化,人们的风险与保险的自我保障意识亟待提高。本文以社会风险事故案例出发,分析了我国现阶段社会风险状况与商业保险社会风险管理的新功能,指出应该在新时代正确发挥商业保险社会风险管理的措施与思考。