贸易开放、不完全竞争与成本加成——基于中国制造业数据的实证分析

文章利用中国制造行业的面板数据,分析贸易开放对我国国内行业成本加成的影响。回归结果表明,市场竞争与国际贸易是影响我国制造行业成本加成的重要因素。进口贸易在高竞争性行业对成本加成具有正向的促进效应,而在低竞争性行业具有相反的效应;出口贸易对国内行业的成本加成具有显著的正向促进效应。     

Industry margins and the business cycle: Some new microeconomic evidence

Analysis of margin flexibility is an important item on the research agendas in macroeconomics and industrial economics. Using a new panel data set for U.S. manufacturing industries, we offer new evidence on the cyclical sensitivity of price-cost margins and on the concentration-margins debate in industrial organization.     

The riegle-neal act and local banking market concentration

The Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act of 1994 greatly transformed the American banking system by allowing the widespread establishment of interstate bank branching networks. This paper examines possible effects on local banking market concentration that resulted from the provision in the Riegle-Neal Act that allowed states to opt-in to the establishment of de novo interstate branches. Regression analysis using data from more than seven hundred cities does not provide any evidence that allowing the establishment of de novo interstate branches caused increases in local banking market concentration. These results may help alleviate some concerns that passage of the Financial Services Regulatory Relief Act currently pending in Congress will result in lessened competition in local banking markets. The author would like to thank discussant Janice Breuer and other participants of the International Atlantic Economic Conference, held in Quebec City from October 16–19, 2003 for helpful comments and suggestions. The author would also like to thank Trevor Lyon for his valuable research assistance.     

Survey of the Industrial Concentration and Price-cost Margin of the Indonesian Manufacturing Industry

This research investigates trends and conditional convergence of industrial concentration and price-cost margin in 410 subsectors of the Indonesian manufacturing industry. This study uses firm (establishment) level survey data provided by the Indonesian Bureau of Central Statistics (BPS) in the period 1980–2011. The conditional convergence model is employed using four-year intervals. This research finds that the industrial concentration and price-cost margin are relatively high for most of the subsectors. Moreover, the Indonesian manufacturing industry is classified as a tight oligopoly structure. This research also reveals that the industrial concentration and price-cost margin for all subsectors tend to converge to the same value in the long run. The competition law supports the convergence of the industrial concentration and price-cost margin for the subsectors. This research concludes that the higher industrial concentration can create a higher market power in the industry.     

Price-cost margins and foreign trade in U.S. textile and apparel industries: An analysis of pooled cross-section and time-series data

This study finds an unexpected, positive and significant association between price-cost margins and import-domestic shipment ratio for the U.S. textile and apparel industries, using pooled cross-section and time-series data. Distortions created by import quotas account for this anomalous finding.     

R&D dynamics in the product life cycle

This paper presents a model of a firm's R&D behavior over an entire product life cycle. Beginning with the search stage, modelled as a patent race, firms raise their R&D expenditures until one firm succeeds with a technological breakthrough in creating a new product, market. The following R&D behavior of the successful entrepreneur, devoted to incremental product and process innovations, varies in a characteristic way over the new product's life cycle. Under reasonable conditions, R&D activities rise in the early stages but decline when the market matures. Overall, supply and demand factors combine to determine the R&D time-path.Paper presented at the Sixth Annual Congress of the European Economic Association, Cambridge, U.K., August 31-September 2, 1991. I would like to thank three anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. Financial support of the DFG in Bonn is gratefully acknowledged.     

DO SMALL FIRMS' PRICE-COST MARGINS FOLLOW THOSE OF LARGE FIRMS?

The paper investigates the extent to which small firms' price-cost margins follow those of large firms. A two-equation model is used with data for 36 Dutch three-digit manufacturing industries over the period 1975–86. The effects of market structure characteristics are also examined. The main result is that small firms (10-50 employees) appear to have the freedom to set prices above cost independently of larger firms in the same industry.     

EFFECT OF MULTI-FIBER ARRANGEMENT TRADE RESTRICTIONS ON TEXTILE INDUSTRY PROFIT MARGINS

This article tests the anti-competitive effect of trade restrictions under the Multi-Fiber Arrangement in the U.S. textile industry. The modeling approach differs from that of traditional empirical studies. That is, it allows for non-competitive behavior by domestic firms and therefore permits estimating the effect of trade policy on domestic firms' conduct, market power, and profit margins. The model is estimated for several selected product categories of the U.S. textile industry. Empirical results indicate that trade restrictions enabled domestic producers to behave less competitively and raise their profit margins. The empirical evidence is significant in the man-made fiber sub-sectors. The anti-competitive effect, however, tended to taper off over time, suggesting that higher profits might have induced new entry and hence boosted competition.     

Information content of U.S. treasury inflation-indexed bonds

U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are designed to provide a stable real return before taxes. A comparison between these bonds and conventional bonds reveals that the effective real yield of U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is attractive. The econometric results suggest, however, that the real rate provided by U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is not independent of inflation, implying that the Fisher hypothesis is contradicted by the data. An implication of negative correlation between the real rate and inflation is that the time to buy U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is when inflation is low. While the yields on U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are shown to reflect inflation by a lag of about one month, nominal interest rates do not fully adjust to inflation. The author would like to thank Richard A. Cohn and Mahmoud Wahab for their advice and comments.     

Foreign trade,concentration and profitability in open economies

In this article a model is developed which integrates the impact of international factors, such as the degree of foreign competition, exporting opportunities, and multi-national activity with the more traditional elements of market structure in explaining cross industry differentials in price-cost margins in the industrial sector of the European Economic Community. Utilizing a simultaneous estimation procedure we conclude that the foreign factors are an important addition to domestic structural variables in the structure-profitability relationship.     

Patents,R&;D and lag effects: evidence from flexible methods for count panel data on manufacturing firms

This paper investigates the relationship between patents and research and development expenditures using new longitudinal patent data at the firm level for the U.S. manufacturing sector from 1982 to 1992. The paper also develops a new class of count panel data models based on series expansion of the distribution of individual effects. Estimation results from various distributed lag and dynamic multiplicative panel count data models show that the contemporaneous relationship between patenting and R&D expenditures continues to be strong, accounting for over 60% of the total R&D elasticity. The lag effects are higher than have previously been found for the 1970s data. We would like to thank Chris Bollinger, Bronwyn Hall and Paula Stephan for useful comments on the previous version of the paper. Earlier versions were presented at the 11th International Conference on Panel Data, Texas A&M University, the Midwest Econometrics Group Meeting, and the Annual Conference of the Southern Economic Association.     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

On the Simultaneity Between Market Concentration and Profitability: the case of a Small-Open Developing Country

The objective of this paper is to examining the controversy in the literature, surrounding the simultaneity between concentration and price-cost margins. As earlier studies have tested this problem in the context of developed countries only, this paper examines the relationship between concentration and profitability using data from a developing country, Malaysia. Empirical results indicate that simultaneity between concentration and margins may be ruled out in the case of Malaysian manufacturing industries. [L19]     

An international comparison of the determinants of retail gross margins

In this paper we compare the results of applying a new economic framework for the analysis of retail gross margins to 1982 interindustry retail data for France, Germany, and the U.S. Use of the same theoretical framework and econometric methodology separately for each of the three bodies of data yields robust empirical regularities with respect to functional form and the role of distribution services in explaining retail gross margins. An interesting feature of these results is that they arise despite substantial differences in classification and in the retail environment of the three countries.We thank E. Hoffnar and P. MacNeill for excellent research assistance. We acknowledge the financial support of INSEAD's R&D department for project R2135. We also thank the CSC at Maryland for support. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the MIT Northeast Marketing Colloquium, the Simon Graduate School of Management at the University of Rochester, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago, the Yale School of Organization and Management, the School of Business Administration at the University of Washington, and the Bureau of Economics of the Federal Trade Commission. We thank the participants in these seminars for their constructive criticisms. We are especially indebted to Peter Rossi of the University of Chicago, who provided us with helpful written comments, and to Herr Krockow of the Statistisches Bundesamt Wiesbaden, who provided us with unpublished data.     

Capital structure,asset utilization,profitability and growth in the Greek manufacturing sector

Greece's accession to the European Union (EU) has affected its economy and its manufacturing sector. Large-size enterprises (LSEs) form a small but vital part of Greek manufacturing and constitute a major component of the country's stock market. According to finance theory, the capital structure of a firm affects its capital cost and market value. This paper, by using dynamic panel data techniques, investigates the determinants of capital structure of LSEs in the Greek manufacturing sector. The findings suggest that asset utilization, gross and net profitability and total assets growth have a significant effect on the capital structure of LSEs. This has straightforward policy implications. Following recent economic developments, Greek firms are exposed to a stronger competition in the EU and global markets, but also to new opportunities. In order to improve their capital structure, Greek manufacturing LSEs need to achieve higher asset utilization and profit margins through economies of scale attained mainly by higher exports. Moreover, governmental measures aiming to support LSEs' efforts should focus their impact on alleviating taxation, reducing bureaucratic burdens, minimizing market imperfections and subsidizing applications of new technology.     

"Meteor showers" and "heat waves" in Greek financial markets

This paper examines the presence of "meteor showers" and "heat waves" effects in Greek financial markets. In particular, the relationship between the stock market price index volatility and the volatility of three exchange rates (U.S. dollar, deutsche mark, and ECU) recorded on a daily basis is investigated. The results provide evidence in favor of the "heat wave" hypothesis, while the "meteor shower" hypothesis was observed only with respect to the U.S. dollar.We would like to thank, without implicating, participants in the Country Studies session of the 43rd International Atlantic Economic Conference held in London, England and especially Dorota Witkowska for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Competition among techniques in the presence of increasing returns to scale

A model of technology diffusion and growth originally proposed by Batten (1987), taking into account the interaction of the supply of and demand for a new product, is modified so as to admit a production technology with increasing returns to scale and the possibility of a competition between two techniques. On the opposite to the case where the production technology of the new technique exhibits decreasing returns, the presence of increasing returns to scale prevent the splitting of the market between two new techniques, and the monopoly position of one technique must obtain. The winning technique may not be the most efficient in terms of its market expansion potential, the outcome of competition depends on initial conditions on production capacity and diffusion.The author wishes to thank Robert Boyer for his helpful advice and remains the sole responsible for all remaining errors and omissions.     

竞合行为对装备制造业市场拓展的影响

以我国装备制造业20家上市公司的市场经营数据为样本,从市场效率、市场份额、产品差异等角度考察竞合对市场拓展产生的影响。研究发现,竞合行为的模式不同对装备制造业市场拓展产生的影响也不同,竞合行为并不会必然使双方都获得收益。从分析数据看,以关联联盟形式进行的竞合更能导致企业相对市场效率的改变,以规模联盟形式进行的竞合更有利于产品差异化,而在市场进入方面两种形式的竞合没有显著差异。显然,装备制造业如何理性选择竞合行为和实施策略以参与国际竞争成为亟待解决的问题。     

Vertical Relationships between Manufacturers and Retailers: Inference with Limited Data

In this paper, different models of vertical relationships between manufacturers and retailers in the supermarket industry are compared. Demand estimates are used to compute price-cost margins for retailers and manufacturers under different supply models when wholesale prices are not observed. The purpose is to identify the set of margins compatible with the margins obtained from estimates of cost and to select the model most consistent with the data among non-nested competing models. The models considered are (1) a simple linear pricing model; (2) a vertically integrated model; and (3) a variety of alternative (strategic) supply scenarios that allow for collusion, non-linear pricing, and strategic behaviour with respect to private label products. Using data on yogurt sold in several stores in a large urban area of the U.S. the results imply that wholesale prices are close to marginal cost and that retailers have pricing power in the vertical chain. This is consistent with non-linear pricing by the manufacturers or high bargaining power of the retailers.     

Demographic versus expenditure flexibility in Engel curves

We consider the effects of demographic and expenditure variables on consumer demand in a system of Engel curves using a smooth coefficient semiparametric model where the expenditure effects on the budget shares vary nonparametrically with demographic variables such as the age of head and number of children in the household. Our findings, based on UK micro data, suggest that with a smooth coefficient semiparametric model there is no need for nonlinear logarithmic expenditure effects in the budget shares. Furthermore, we find evidence of a trade-off between demographic and expenditure effects in Engel curves and that a rank-2 system of Engel curves where the logarithmic expenditure effects are allowed to vary with demographic characteristics either nonparametrically or as a third degree polynomial function cannot be rejected against a rank-3 (quadratic logarithmic) model. The implications on household behavior and welfare are also examined. We would like to thank an anonymous referee and Baldev Raj, the editor, for useful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank the University of Cyprus for financial support, Theofanis Mamuneas for stimulating discussions and the Office of National Statistics for making available the UK Family Expenditure Survey data through the ESRC Data Archive. The last author would also like to acknowledge the financial support from SSHRC of Canada.