Trade and Real Wages: a Macroeconomic Model*

We offer a new paradigm to understand the effects of trade on factor rewards. It utilizes the classical‐Keynesian model, and shows that normally a country’s trade deficit hurts labor by lowering the real wage, but benefits the owners of capital. The effects of tariffs on factor rewards and employment are opposite to those of the trade deficit, which falls with a rise in the tariff rate. Countries with trade shortfalls unambiguously benefit from their tariffs, because laborers far outnumber capitalists, who suffer from the declining interest rate. Thus, tariffs lead to a rise in social welfare in trade‐deficit countries.     

Investment in Health Technologies in a Competitive Model with Real Options

This paper adopts a real options approach to study the optimal timing of investment in new technologies by health care providers competing for patients and the role of alternative payment systems in the adoption decision. The innovative technology provides a better health outcome, thus attracting a larger number of patients. On the other hand, at the early stages of innovation it is assumed to involve a larger degree of uncertainty and higher costs. The role of the payment system turns out not always to be intuitive. In particular, it is shown that a more generous scheme does not always induce earlier investment. By comparing the competitive solution with the social optimal timing, some policy implications are finally discussed.     

Nontraded Goods and Real Exchange Rates in a Multi‐Good Ricardian Model

The two‐country Ricardian trade model with discrete goods and uniform transport costs for tradable goods is applied to the decomposition of the real exchange rate into traded and nontraded components. The real exchange rate is driven almost entirely by changes in the productivity differentials in nontraded goods and also explains the Balassa–Samuelson effect of a lower cost of living in poor countries, but extraordinary transport costs for some nontraded goods are necessary to easily explain the Balassa–Samuelson effect.     

Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition

This paper considers irreversible investment in competing research projects with uncertain returns under a winner-takes-all patent system. Uncertainty takes two distinct forms: the technological success of the project is probabilistic, while the economic value of the patent to be won evolves stochastically over time. According to the theory of real options uncertainty generates an option value of delay, but with two competing firms the fear of preemption would appear to undermine this approach. In non-cooperative equilibrium two patterns of investment emerge depending on parameter values. In a pre-emptive leader–follower equilibrium firms invest sequentially and option values are reduced by competition. A symmetric outcome may also occur, however, in which investment is more delayed than the single-firm counterpart. Comparing this with the optimal cooperative investment pattern, investment is found to be more delayed when firms act non-cooperatively as each holds back from investing in the fear of starting a patent race. Implications of the analysis for empirical and policy issues in R&D are considered.     

房地产调控视角下的个人住房课税探讨

近几年来,政府采取了一系列的住房税收政策,对抑制房价过快上升起到了很好的"刹车"作用。但这些住房税收政策有其本身的局限性,从而影响了其作用的进一步发挥。因此,我们应从民生和税制完善的综合角度而不是单纯地以房地产调控角度设计住房课税体系。     

Sources of Fluctuations in the Real Exchange Rates and Trade Balances of the G‐7: A Sign Restriction VAR Approach

This paper estimates structural vector autoregression models of output, the real exchange rate and trade balance for the group of seven leading advanced economies (G‐7). Unlike previous studies, we do not impose long‐run purchasing power parity as an identifying assumption; instead, the shocks underlying the model are structurally identified using a set of theory‐consistent sign restrictions. Empirical results show that nominal shocks account for most of the long‐run variability in trade balances across the G‐7 countries. We are able to attribute this finding to long‐run movements in the real exchange rate, as the real exchange rate is significantly affected by nominal shocks in the long run.     

房地产金融风险与我国个人信用制度的建设

从房地产金融风险可以看出我国个人信用制度建设的必要性和紧迫性,本文分析了我国个人信用制度建设的现状和问题,并提出了有效的政策建议,如加强个人信用制度的外部文化环境建设、设立国家信用局、提高网络的覆盖水平、完善相关的法律制度等。     

Further Evidence from Aggregate Data on the Life-Cycle-Permanent-Income Model

We estimate the path of aggregate consumption implied by the permanent income hypothesis by allowing for parameter variation dictated by the theory. Our evidence, obtained by applying the Kalman filter to U.S. data for 1929–2001, supports the proposed generalisation and the fluctuations in the parameter estimates comply with a priori theoretical expectations.     

Two‐Aggregate Games: Demonstration Using a Production–Appropriation Model

We expand the scope of the two‐aggregate method by applying it to a situation in which many heterogeneous players are free to contribute to both aggregates. Such situations naturally arise in various resource allocation problems. Hence, our method is useful in many applications. A production–appropriation model is employed to illustrate how the problem of establishing the Nash equilibrium can be reduced from solving n>2 best‐response functions in n unknowns to solving two consistency conditions in two unknowns. We then conduct a comparative static exercise that the conventional approach could not handle easily, if at all, to demonstrate the power of our method.     

The Multi-Sector Business Cycle Model and Aggregate Shocks: An Empirical Analysis

This paper discusses the applicability of a multi-sector business cycle model to the Japanese economy. Through dynamic factor analysis, output fluctuations are broken down into aggregate and sectoral shocks. It is shown that independent sectoral shocks are more significant than common shocks, which is consistent with the model proposed by Long and Plosser (1983). In addition, the paper reveals that the importance of aggregate shocks increased during the so-called "Bubble" period in the late 1980s.     

Structural and Cyclical Factors behind Current Account Balances

Global external imbalances widened persistently over the last several years and have narrowed abruptly over the course of the financial crisis. Understanding the extent to which structural or cyclical factors may have driven these patterns is important to assess the likely evolution of global imbalances going forward, as well as the potential adjustment that can be achieved through changes in policy. This paper assesses the link between structural and cyclical factors and current account balances using a panel of 94 countries from 1973 to 2008. We find that the medium‐term evolution of global external imbalances can be related in large part to structural factors including cross‐country differences in demographics, fiscal deficits, oil dependency and intensity, stage of economic development, financial market development, and institutional quality. Part of the narrowing in current account balances since the financial crisis appears to be related to various cyclical factors including changes in output growth, oil prices, and exchange rates, and may be expected to reverse alongside the economic recovery.     

Structural Change in the External Balances Response to Macroeconomic Policies: Perspective from a Two‐Sector New Open Economy Macroeconomic Model

The response of the Japanese trade balance against expansionary macroeconomic policy shocks changed from positive to negative in the 1990s. With consideration of intratemporal (between tradable and nontradable goods) and intertemporal elasticity of substitutions, we investigate this cause using two‐sector new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM). Empirical methods, considering structural change, were applied and show that before the break, intratemporal elasticity of substitution dominates, but subsequently the relation inverted and intertemporal elasticity became predominant and hence, the theoretical response of trade balance changed. Finally, we verify this theoretical implication empirically by impulse response analysis of structural vector auto regression.     

企业国际并购的实物期权模型

本文运用实物期权方法构造了一个数量决策模型,来分析国际并购过程的多阶段特性,并通过模型化分析找到了并购过程中各阶段的最优策略。笔者分析了在国际并购过程中的等待价值、潜在放弃价值以及真实价值之间的关系,并寻找到了一个均衡稳定解。本文还考察了谈判阶段中的询价策略。     

实际威克塞尔效应与总量模型的有效性

“剑桥资本争论”对大量异质品加总后的总量模型提出了质疑，因为“技术再转换”和“资本倒流”的存在，总量模型在解释具有大量异质资本品的实际经济时出现了逻辑上的“悖论”。为阐明这种总量模型的有效性，实际威克塞尔效应为负被认为是一个十分重要的限定条件，只要保持实际威克塞尔效应为负，即在规则经济条件下，大量异质品加总后的总量模型才是有效的，否则，总量模型必然产生逻辑上的“悖论”。     

解决养老保险转轨成本实现个人账户"实账"运行

要实现我国养老保险的可持续发展，首先要解决好转轨成本问题，实现个人帐户的“实帐”运行，分析目前我国政府化解转轨成本的做法及政策效果，从主客观两方面探讨我国转轨成本恶化的原因，提出化解转轨成本、实现个人帐户“实帐”运行的一些建议。     

Private Sector Wealth: Quarterly Estimates for use in an Aggregate Model*

The paper presents some estimates of private-sector wealth in Australia for the 1958-75 period. Basically, we have attempted to consolidate the balance sheets of all sectors, except the government and the foreign sector. Different procedures have been used for the various components of private-sector wealth and estimates are presented for real assets of the household sector (dwellings, motor vehicles and consumer durables), for fixed assets and inventories of the business sector, and for government liabilities to the private sector. Broadly, the data indicate that over the 1958-75 period, private wealth grew faster than population but slower than output and business capital stock. Dwellings and motor vehicles were the fastest growing components of private wealth. Reflecting the rise in the share of foreign claims on businesses in Australia, the Australian claims on business assets increased at a slower rate than the increase in the business-capital stock.     

效用最大化模型与中国个人所得税的治理

随着个人所得税收入的快速增长，如何通过强化对个人所得税的管理以减少税收收入的流失，已经成为政府亟待解决的重要课题。针对中国个人所得税的税制不健全、处罚措施力度薄弱、公民“纳税”意识淡薄等问题，我们可以通过改革税制、加大惩罚力度、改革税收征管模式等措施加以改善和解决。     

Judicial Branch, Checks and Balances and Political Accountability

This paper attempts to combine the political economics models on separation of powers between the legislature and the executive with public choice theories on the behavior of the judicial branch. We obtain a model of political accountability and checks and balances with up to three government branches: the executive, the legislature and the judiciary. We conclude that an independent judiciary improves the political accountability of democratic systems relative to the political economics models with two government branches. An accommodating judiciary, however, changes the distribution of political rents without improving accountability.     

The Game Model Analysis between the Individual and the Group

This paper analyses the game model between the individual and the group that has the characteristics of Stackelberg model in traditional game theory and replicator dynamic model in evolutionary game theory. In the first phase of game, the bounded rationality group players adopt the replicator dynamic behavior. Secondly, the full rationality individual player decides the own response function by the strategies distribution of group players. The shortsighted individual player will take the risk-dominant strategy. This model has some unique characteristics.     

Aggregate supply management in a small open economy

For a closed economy a cut in either payroll or income taxes stimulates output, but they influence the price level in different directions. In a two-sector, small open economy these conclusions are much more tenuous. Using a model that maintains equilibrium in the only two purely domestic markets, labor and nontradeables, it is established that a payroll-tax cut increases the size of the labor force, but does not guarantee higher real income. For either tax cut, prices and output move in opposite directions. In the short run when wages are “sticky,” an income-tax cut has the undesirable effect of increasing unemployment. In the face of a supply shock that reduces demand for labor, a payroll-tax cut can reestablish the original equilibrium.