Impact of the Emerging Financial Holding Company Model on Small Business Borrowers' Financial Welfare: Contemporary Evidence from Nigeria Based on the Monti‐Klein Approach

This study exploits the adequacy of the Monti‐Klein model to analyse the banking firms' lending behaviour and uses the geometric lag analytic model to detect the lifespan of bank conglomeration impacts on small business financial welfare. We find that, although the impact of emerging conglomerate banks on lending to small businesses is significantly negative (δ = ?0.6897; p < 0.01), the effect reverses to a pre‐conglomerate positive status within one year. Hence, bank conglomeration does not negatively affect the financial welfare of small business borrowers in the long run. Contrary to the widespread belief and fear, the negative effects are not permanent. Large banks are feared to have no time for mid‐sized businesses. We find, however, that mere increases in size, as may be caused by economic or internal growth, do not pose a threat to small businesses. Large‐sized banking firms positively and significantly correlate with small and predictable risks (δ = 1.7935; p < 0.01). Hence, contrary to what regulators fear, there is no real issue surrounding the idea that building diversifying banks will influence small business loans negatively. What matters is the means through which large banks emerge. Therefore, regulators ought to exercise caution so that they do not discourage their emergence.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Bank Lending and Economic Growth of Chinese Cities

Using a city-level dataset over the period 2004-2006,the present study investigates the relationship between bank lending and the economic growth of Chinese cities.Unlike past studies,we divide bank lending into loans from three types of banks:foreign banks,city banks and other banks.Our findings are threefold.First,the lending of foreign banks exhibits a strong and positive association with the economic growth of Chinese cities. Second,foreign direct investment in the sampled cities enhances the lending effects of foreign banks,but reduces the lending effects of other banks on the economy of Chinese cities.Third, the effects of city competitiveness are similar to those of foreign direct investment;that is,city competitiveness augments the lending effects of foreign banks but reduces the lending effects of other banks.     

Fiscal capacity and commercial bank lending under COVID-19

We investigate the implications of government indebtedness for the efficacy of expansionary government spending in encouraging commercial bank lending growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our sample is a large cross-section of over 3000 banks from 71 countries. To address the likely endogeneity of government assistance, we instrument for extra-normal spending using disparities in pre-existing national political characteristics. Our results indicate that bank lending did respond to fiscal capacity, as higher public debt going into the crisis weakened the expansionary effects of higher spending on bank lending at economically and statistically significant levels. Moreover, this sensitivity was higher among weaker banks, suggesting sensitivity to the perceived implications of spending for government assistance going forward. We also found greater sensitivity in high-income economies and for small and medium-sized banks. Our results are robust to a variety of robustness tests, including perturbations in specification, sample, and estimation methodology.     

A Markov‐switching analysis of Nigeria's business cycles: Are election cycles important?

The study examines Nigeria's business cycles between October 1998 and October 2017 and ascertains the importance of general elections cycles in engendering cyclical fluctuations in different measures of business cycles. A framework based on political business cycles theory was estimated with a dynamic Markov‐switching regression technique. The study finds that election cycles are adequate in predicting cycles in food prices, non‐farm prices, exports, and imports in Nigeria while a significant effect of election cycles on the stock market, general price level, and exchange rate could not be established. The study concludes that cycles in food, non‐farm prices, imports, and exports can be predicted by future general elections while re‐election seeking behaviour of politicians lacks the power to influence stock market performance and exchange rate in Nigeria. Hence, artificial business cycles that result primarily from politicians manipulating certain fiscal tools targeted at stimulating the economy only to increase the re‐election chances could be minimized if monetary and fiscal institutions are strong, effective, and truly independent. This will ensure that policies are not manipulated between elections by politicians but are well targeted at achieving a set of long‐term developmental goals.     

SOUTH AFRICA'S POST‐LIBERALISED CAPITAL FLOWS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS

This study used Christiano and Fitzgerald filtered correlation analysis to investigate the cyclical relationships between South Africa's post‐liberalised capital flows and domestic business cycle fluctuations. The results show that foreign direct investment inflows are counter‐cyclical and proactive, while the “hot” inflows are acyclical. Thus, South Africa's post‐liberalisation “hot” inflows have not been significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations. In contrast, the capital outflows are found to be consistently procyclical and proactive, suggesting that the outflows are more significantly associated with domestic business cycle fluctuations than the capital inflows. In addition, it is found that the cyclical relationships between the capital inflows and the business cycle components of exports, household consumption and gross fixed investment are generally procyclical, except for portfolio inflows, which have a counter‐cyclical relationship with fixed investment. In contrast, the capital outflows are counter‐cyclically associated with exports and household consumption, and procyclically associated with fixed investment.     

Understanding the Cyclical Nature of Financial Intermediation Costs

Intermediation costs (i.e., all noninterest bank expenses) are counter‐cyclical and their changes have significant effects at the country‐level; however, the literature is silent on what drives their cyclicality. Previous studies have examined costs using cross‐sectional or low frequency data and thus cannot capture dynamic macroeconomic effects across time. We fill this gap by examining U.S. intermediation costs using a quarterly, bank‐level dataset from 1993 through 2012. This data set allows for the separation of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the cyclicality of costs. The analysis shows that house prices are the main driving source of this counter‐cyclicality. Because housing is used as collateral, a price decline leads banks to increase their operating costs for monitoring, screening and litigation costs which cause a credit crunch in the economy.     

区域技术创新推动经济增长的微观效应与宏观机制

区域技术创新作为推动经济增长的重要源泉已被人们普遍接受,但是对这一问题内在机理的解释目前学术界做得尚不够。文章按照从微观到宏观的顺序,提出区域技术创新在微观层面通过成本效应、品质效应创造经济增长,在宏观层面通过区域经济结构优化机制、区域经济增长方式转换机制来推动经济增长,并合理解释了微观层面上的成本效应、品质效应与宏观层面上的区域经济结构优化、经济增长方式转换机制的逻辑关系,由此构建了解释区域技术创新推动经济增长内在机理的从微观到宏观的理论整体。     

Soft budget constraints, bank capital, and the monetary transmission mechanism

This paper investigates the effect of monetary policy in a situation where soft budget constraint problems prevail in the economy and the bank faces a capital requirement. Under these circumstances, an expansionary monetary policy may increase quantity of bank lending without improving the quality and thus may not stimulate economic activity. On the other hand, in order to solve the problem of soft budget constraint problems and to improve the quality of bank lending, the quantity of bank lending should be decreased. Central authorities need to keep this tradeoff in mind when exercising monetary policy and injecting public funds.     

METHOD OF ANALYZING BUSINESS CYCLES IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SLOVENIA

In this paper, we studied cyclical patterns in a transition economy. We introduced a dynamic perspective into the analysis by applying multivariate wavelet analysis. The wavelet covariance and wavelet correlation were defined and applied to the analysis of business cycles as an alternative to the traditional cross‐spectrum analysis. The main findings indicated that there is a significant business cycle component in aggregate economic activity and that business cycles are asymmetric and highly synchronized with the EU cycle. Additionally, it was found that three distinctive periods of business cycle synchronization exert an important impact on the properties of a business cycle.     

Explaining Interest Rate Spreads in Ghana*

Abstract: The question of the optimal spread between bank lending rates and rates that banks pay on deposits, which is fair to bankers, depositors and borrowers, has dogged economies for some time. In Ghana, there is widespread perception that the spread is too wide. Bankers, on the other hand justify the spread on the basis of economic variables that affect them. This paper contributes to the literature by identifying, in the case of Ghana, the short‐run response of the net interest margin of banks to changes in bank‐specific, industry‐specific and macroeconomic variables within the broad framework of Ho and Saunders (1981) . We find that increases in the following factors significantly increase net interest margin — bank market power (or concentration), bank size, staff costs, administrative costs, extent of bank risk aversion and the rate of inflation. On the other hand, increases in the following variables decrease net interest margin significantly — bank excess cash reserves, the central bank lending rate, management efficiency and the passage of time. To help reduce interest rate margins, we recommend that banks should not get too big, the central bank should consider lowering the capital adequacy ratio and banks should be required to pass on to borrowers the full extent of reductions or increases in the central bank lending rate. Continued efforts at keeping inflation at bay will also help.     

Responding to financial crisis: Bank credit expansion with Chinese characteristics

China has sustained a high rate of economic growth even after the outbreak of global financial crisis around 2008 and 2009. Much of the growth stemmed from consistently high levels of lending after this period. Using a unique large dataset from all banking institutions in 90 counties across 14 provinces of China from 2005 to 2013, this paper examines the patterns of credit expansion by Chinese banks. Our study results reveal a clear pattern of counter-cyclical credit expansion by Chinese banks in response to the outbreak of global financial crisis. We find that ownership structure and bank governance do impact on bank lending: the large state-owned banks have responded more to political pressure to lend while the joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have been more profit oriented. The latter had increased their lending more to increase their presence at the county markets. Overall, compared with county-based small banks, cross-regional banks have expanded their lending much more aggressively. Differences in liquidity and deposit growth, risk management strategies, or legal enforcement cannot explain these results.     

Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data

Using panel data for 94 countries in 1975–97, we estimate OLS, 2SLS and GMM regressions to explain IMF and IBRD lending as well as monetary and fiscal policies in the recipient countries. With respect to moral hazard, we find that a country's government budget deficit and its rate of monetary expansion are higher the larger its borrowing potential in the Fund. New net lending of the Bank (relative to GDP) raises monetary expansion but lowers budget deficits of the recipient countries while new net credit from the Fund is associated with less expansionary policies. As for political business cycles, our evidence indicates that new net credits from the IMF are significantly larger prior to elections and that borrowing from the IBRD is significantly smaller after elections.     

Stimulating Growth and Investment in Africa: From Macro to Micro Reforms

Abstract: How do we stimulate investment and growth in Africa? This paper focuses on low‐income countries that are ‘good performers’ and not especially endowed with natural resources. Many of these countries have undertaken a set of economic reforms, and have recorded growth rates in per capita GDP of around 5 percent over the past 10 years. But some constraints to growth persist. We look at three things — how business environments create ‘external costs’ for firms and inhibit performance, how investors perceive the constraints to doing business, and the role of political economy factors especially in those countries with lagging indigenous business sectors. Our analysis of investment climate and other data leads us to several recommendations for governments, donors and the private sector itself, including the following: deepen macro reforms; build a strong, unified business forum; create incentives for more responsive governments; and improve risk mitigation and broaden this to domestic investors.     

Government Securities Markets in the West African Economic and Monetary Union: A Review

Abstract: The paper reviews trends and developments in the WAEMU government securities markets. Issuance of debt has grown more than tenfold since 2000 in the region, driven by the rapidly growing Treasury bills segment. The elimination of central bank financing of government has been the catalyst of this growth while excess liquidity in the banking system has helped sustain the market. Common institutions, such as a regional central bank and uniformity of issuance and distribution procedures have led to high cross‐border transactions. However, supply and demand conditions are more important than economic fundamentals in determining Treasury bill rates.     

Financial Liberalization and Foreign Bank Entry on the Domestic Banking Performance in MENA Countries

Abstract: This study examines the impact of financial liberalization and foreign bank entry on the domestic banking sector from 1996 to 2007, and builds upon and expands the work of Lee (2002). We find that foreign bank entry, financial liberalization, ownership structure and degree of openness of foreign bank entry positively impact domestic banking system operating efficiency, capitalization, risk management, long‐term soundness, financial performance as well as economic and financial development. However, foreign bank entry is associated with reduced profit margins and increased operating costs of domestic banks in countries with less developed capital markets. Empirical evidence seems to support the argument that foreign bank presence leads to better allocation of capital and eliminates connected lending practices.     

The Economic Consequences of the Obama Reelection: How Stagnation Has Vanquished Growth

The stagnation of the American economy during the past decade is attributable to faulty policies at both the macro and micro level. The efforts to organize stimulus programs and manipulation tax rates create uncertainties that offset any supposed gains from Keynesian policies. At the same time, the failure to address major structural flaws in labor, real estate, free trade and positive rights have resulted in cumulative dislocations that require a shrinkage of government across the board to facilitate any reversal of economic fortune.     

经济政策变化是否影响了银行资产证券化发展?——基于经济政策不确定性的视角

以经济政策不确定性为主要特征的经济政策频繁变化将对银行产生不利冲击,并通过银行行为的变化推动资产证券化发展。文章以2011-2018年中国银行业数据为研究样本,基于经济政策不确定性对经济政策频繁变化进行衡量,充分识别经济政策不确定性与银行资产证券化发展的内在关系,以及相应的异质性特征。结果表明：（1）经济政策不确定性越大,银行发展资产证券化的动机越强;（2）影响机制检验发现,银行期限错配、风险承担及盈利水平的不利变化,是经济政策不确定性影响银行资产证券化发展的中介效应;（3）经济政策不确定性对银行资产证券化发展的促进作用,在非上市银行、城商行及农商行中更为显著。文章认为,鉴于银行发展资产证券化的目的在于应对外部环境及其对自身微观行为的不利冲击,监管部门应针对资产证券化的功能定位监管措施,并且尽量营造透明公平的环境,稳定银行机构对未来政策的预期,同时中小银行也要积极推动经营转型,主动增强适应宏观经济环境的能力。文章从经济政策不确定性这一宏观视角出发,拓展了银行资产证券化的研究维度,基于银行微观结构的变化深化了对经济政策变化及不确定性影响效应的认知。     

Microcredit on a Large Scale: Appraising the Thailand Village Fund

The Thailand village fund (VF) is the second‐largest microcredit scheme in the world. Nearly 80 000 elected local VF committees administer loans that reach 30 percent of all households. The value of VF loans has remained steady since 2006, even without new infusions of government funds, and loans go disproportionately to the poor. Based mainly on a custom‐built survey of over 3000 local VFs conducted in 2010, we evaluate the performance of the VF. As expected, profit rates are hard to model, but our regression analysis shows that loan recovery rates, total lending and the proportion of loans going to the poor are all higher when a VF borrows additional funds from a formal bank and on‐lends to households, as done by one in five VFs. An economic analysis suggests, tentatively, that VF benefits exceed the costs. A financial analysis shows that VFs more than break even, with receipts covering their cash costs. Most VFs are social rather than financial intermediaries; they have little incentive to take risks or to innovate, which explains why VF lending has not kept pace with the growth of the Thai economy.     

Officials on boards and the prudential behavior of banks: Evidence from China's city commercial banks

From the perspective of officials-and-directors (OADs), who are commonly appointed by the Chinese government to the banks it owns, this paper takes studies of government ownership and banks' behavior to the micro level of boards. We analyze the relationship between the special political connection of the OADs and banks' prudential behavior, using a sample of China's City Commercial Banks during 2006–2010. We further explore the impact of OADs' characteristics and the role of independent directors and female directors. The results indicate that banks with OADs exhibit lower prudential behavior, and the higher is the administrative rank of the OADs, the larger is the effect. And the older is the OADs, the larger is the effect. More importantly, the government ownership of banks does not have a significant and robust influence on their prudential behavior. Meanwhile, independent directors can significantly weaken the effect of the OADs, while female directors can enhance the prudential behavior of banks in the absence of OADs. Finally, our results persist even after controlling for sample selection bias and alternative variable measures. Our research contributes to the practice of improving bank governance and regulating systematic risk.