A variable P value rolling Grey forecasting model for Taiwan semiconductor industry production

The semiconductor industry plays an important role in Taiwan's economy. In this paper, we constructed a rolling Grey forecasting model (RGM) to predict Taiwan's annual semiconductor production. The univariate Grey forecasting model (GM) makes forecast of a time series of data without considering possible correlation with any leading indicators. Interestingly, within the RGM there is a constant, P value, which was customarily set to 0.5. We hypothesized that making the P value a variable of time could generate more accurate forecasts. It was expected that the annual semiconductor production in Taiwan should be closely tied with U.S. demand. Hence, we let the P value be determined by the yearly percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) by U.S. manufacturing industry. This variable P value RGM generated better forecasts than the fixed P value RGM. Nevertheless, the yearly percent change in real GDP by U.S. manufacturing industry is reported after a year ends. It cannot serve as a leading indicator for the same year's U.S. demand. We found out that the correlation between the yearly survey of anticipated industrial production growth rates in Taiwan and the yearly percent changes in real GDP by U.S. manufacturing industry has a correlation coefficient of 0.96. Therefore, we used the former to determine the P value in the RGM, which generated very accurate forecasts.     

Forecasting the output of integrated circuit industry using a grey model improved by the Bayesian analysis

The production values of the integrated circuit industry has the following attributes, short product life cycle, numerous influencing factors on the market, and rapid changing of technology. These features obstruct the precision of forecasting the outputs of integrated circuit industry using the traditional statistical methods. The grey forecast model can obviously conquer these difficulties with a small sample set and ambiguity of available information. This study evaluates original and Bayesian grey forecast models for the integrated circuit industry. Bayesian method uses the technique of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to estimate the parameters for grey differential function. The predictive value of integrated circuit in Taiwan was evaluated along with mean absolute percentage error. Various parameters and efficiency of three forecast models were compared and summary outcomes were reported. Meanwhile, the Bayesian grey model was the most accurate one among these models.     

A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy

Any research or policy analysis in economics must be consistent with the time-series properties of observed macroeconomic data. Numerous previous studies reinforce the need to specify correctly a model’s multivariate stochastic structure. This paper discusses in detail the specification of a vector error correction forecasting model that is anchored by long-run equilibrium relationships suggested by economic theory. The model includes six variables––the CPI, the GDP price index, real money balances (M1), the federal funds rate, the yield on long-term (10-year) government bonds, and real GDP––and four cointegrating vectors. The accuracy of VECM model forecasts for individual, univariate time series during for the 1990s is comparable to forecasts made by government agencies and private forecasters, perhaps because many forecasters share a similar implicit, long-run steady-state growth model of the economy. Judged by multivariate statistics that account for forecast-error covariance, VECM forecasts are found to be somewhat more accurate than a naïve random-walk alternative.     

Applying DEA, MPI, and grey model to explore the operation performance of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication industry

The study applies data envelopment analysis (DEA) and Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to explore the operation performances of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication companies from 2004 to 2007. The input variables are total assets, operation costs, and selling and administrative expenditures, while the output variable is net sales. The results show that if Taiwanese wafer fabrication companies want to increase their operation performances, they should improve their CRS and VRS efficiencies not scale efficiency. Furthermore, this paper utilizes GM (1,1) - one order and one variable in the grey model - to forecast the growth trend of the Taiwanese wafer fabrication industry from 2008 to 2010, and then employs GM (1,N) - one order and N variables in the grey model - to measure the influences of the input variables upon the output variable. This study demonstrates that the most influential factor for the output variable, net sales, is selling and administrative expenditures.     

全球价值链背景下北京市现代制造业海外直接投资的发展战略新思维

本文首先分析了全球价值链的本质特征,在此基础土分析了北京市现代制造业海外直接投资的发展战略,提出了海外直接投资以整合产业链的新思维。     

Effects of technical innovation on market value of the U.S. semiconductor industry

This article discusses the effects of technical innovation on the market value (MV) of the American semiconductor industry from the perspective of investors in the securities market. The study quantifies the technical innovations of the semiconductor industry and uses the proportional change of Average Process Technology (APT) as a proxy variable to measure the industrial capability of technical innovations and to act as one of the explanatory variables of a regression model for discussing the connection between technical innovation and MV. The results indicate that: 1) the degree of technical innovation and the proportional change in productivity of the semiconductor industry are the major factors that affect proportional change in the MV of the U.S. semiconductor industry; 2) regardless of the size of a company's MV or the companies' classification in terms of products and services (the Equipment & Material Sector, the Board Line Sector, the IC & Chip Sector and the Fabless & Specialist Sector), the degree of technical innovation shows a significant positive effect on MV.     

Grey analysis of the relationship between grain output and major input factor in Guizhou Province：1983-2005

Because conditions for the grain production are not favorable and the input in the production factors ofmodern agriculture is not sufficient, the grain supply has been less than the demand for a long time. By means of greycorrelation analysis, this paper deals with the correlation situation among such input factors as the grain sown area, thetotal power of agricultural machinery, the fertilizer utilization volume, the actual irrigation area, the damage area, thenumber of farming labor force, in order to understand the major restricting and driving forces that have affected thegrain output in the recent 23 years. The analysis shows that the grain sown area and fertilizer utilization volume are thetwo most important leading factors that affect grain production in Guizhou Province, while the damage area and the totalpower of the farming-used machines are the following factors. Fertilizer utilization volume and the actual agriculturalmachinery and irrigation area are the two increasingly influential factors that affect grain production. The influence of thefarming labor force upon grain production became less strong. The main measures to increase grain production outputin Guizhou Province are to stabilize the arable land, increase the actual irrigation area, expedite the transfer of thefarming labor force and increase the input of modern agriculture.     

云南省大学生到村任职的现状调查与研究

选聘高校毕业生到村任职是新时期我党加强和改善农村基层政权、建设社会主义新农村、全面实现建设小康社会的重大举措。然而,目前大学生村官的状况如何？存在哪些问题？如何使大学生村官队伍建设成为长期战略行动？以云南省大学生村官、乡镇领导、村委会和村民为调查对象,通过对其生活状况、工作状况、思想状况等方面的调查,分析云南省大学生村官存在的主要问题,并提出完善云南大学生村官的建议。     

价值理论创新视角下艺术商品的增值研究

学术界对艺术商品的价值多从收藏、历史价值和投资增值等方面深入分析,对艺术商品的投资研究多以定性描述为主,且主要从艺术学和美学的角度,很少有从经济学角度入手进行投资研究和价值分析的。从马克思劳动价值理论的视角并综合西方经济学的效用理论,分析艺术商品的特点和价值决定,对艺术商品的价值增值进行研究和探讨。     

湖南省文化产业投入产出分析

近年来“文化湘军”成功突围,文化产业迅速发展,使其成为湖南省的一个重要的支柱产业。基于湖南省2007年投入产出表,对湖南省文化产业的相关分析系数进行计算,对文化产业的产业关联和产业波及进行定量的分析。研究结果表明：湖南省的文化产业发展虽然在全国范围内取得领先的地位,但是总体水平仍然比较低,尚处于起步阶段,对于全省经济的支撑作用和拉动作用都很弱。     

江苏省金融业投入产出分析

主要应用投入产出分析方法及其模型,依据江苏省2007年投入产出表数据资料,计算出金融业及各部门的直接消耗系数、完全消耗系数、感应度系数等有关指标,从总产出及其使用情况、总投入及其结构、直接产业关联和完全产业关联等角度,就金融业对江苏省经济的直接影响和完全影响进行了实证分析。分析结果表明江苏省金融业是江苏省经济体系中极为重要的产业组成部分,但与其他产业关联度不高,对经济发展的拉动作用较弱,属于强制约力、弱辐射力的产业。     

劳动价值论视角下的信息商品及其劳动分析

信息科学技术革命浪潮不仅创造出一种全新的信息商品,劳动创造价值的形式也发生巨大变化。概述了信息商品及其使用价值和价值的主要特性,并在此基础上分析其派生出来的新现象：创造信息商品价值的劳动具有不确定性;规范信息商品的实现过程成为信息产业发展中亟须解决的问题;信息服务业的劳动创造价值问题。     

对“价值”概念的几种界定

在经济理论领域内,“价值”是使用得最广泛,同时也是最复杂的一个经济范畴之一。在各种价值理论或观点背后,如何理解“价值”是关键所在。其实,“价值”最初是同交换密切联系在一起的,在交换中人们首先要解决的一个问题是一个物品换取他种物品的数量是多少,亦即交换比例如何确定的问题,当然交换比例应在逻辑上先于交换行为而确定的。进一步的研究表明,在关于交换比例的确定的量的分析之前,还必须回答交换成立的基础这一更加重要的质的问题,然而,这一问题开始进入经济思想家的眼界并不容易,能否意识到并同意这个问题是造成价值理论分歧的根本原因之一。据此,考察经济史上各种价值或价格理论,并对“价值”概念进行了几种界定。     

Technological interdependence and knowledge diffusion in the building of national innovative capacity: The role of Taiwan's chemical industry

While the significance and effectiveness of patents in the chemical industry has been demonstrated in many industrialized countries, this study examines the role of the chemical industry and knowledge diffusion in building the innovative capacity of a nation in latecomer country Taiwan. The development of process innovation plays an integral role in the strategic industries of Taiwan, but few attempts have been made to address how the efficiency of process development can be enhanced. As a latecomer, Taiwan has built its national innovative capability on strategic industries such as semiconductors, consumer electronics and flat panel displays. Through patent data analysis, this study demonstrates the significant and indispensable role played by the chemical industry in technological interdependence and knowledge diffusion with other Taiwanese strategic industries. This study suggests that while the public resources of Taiwan are focused on accelerating the development of emerging sectors and technologies, the chemical industry serves as an effective linkage and catalyst in problem-solving.     

河南省第三产业结构发展趋势预测与灰关联分析

笔者通过运用等维灰数递补模型对河南省第三产业产值、城镇居民人均可支配收入、交通运输仓储及邮电通信业、批发和零售贸易餐饮业、金融保险业、房地产业产值进行预测,认为河南第三产业结构自“十五”后趋于合理,房地产业、公交邮电通讯业、批零商业等日趋重要,相应的对策是应在保持这些产业优势的基础上,大力发展一些新行业,促进河南第三产业健康发展和人民生活水平持续提高。     

转变煤炭产业经济发展新模式的思考

我国是能源消费大国,＂富煤贫油少气＂是我国能源资源分布的突出特点。当前,我国煤炭资源利用以直接燃烧和传统煤化工为主,能源转化效率和资源综合利用水平极低,环境污染较大。过度依赖于能源的煤炭产业结构和经济发展方式,导致煤炭产业初级化、重型化、单一化问题突出。因此,实现绿色采矿、发展循环经济、开展煤炭深加工、提高煤炭资源就地转化水平等一系列转变煤炭产业经济的新发展模式,已成为实现我国经济发展方式转变、实现资源型国家可持续发展的最现实有效的选择。     

基于《企业绩效评价标准值》的医药全行业绩效评价及预测

科学合理的绩效评价是现代企业发展的基础,对行业的发展能起到促进和引导作用。通过计算医药工业全行业、化药制造业、中药材及中成药制造业三个领域全行业综合绩效发现,2008—2014年,中药材及中成药制造业最优,医药工业全行业次之,化药制造业最低。同时通过灰色关联GM（1,1）模型对医药行业绩效进行预测可知,未来五年医药全行业绩效均呈上升趋势。     

马克思剩余价值理论视角下信息商品增值研究

信息劳动创造价值,如何在马克思剩余价值理论视角下研究信息商品增值是一个新的研究课题。信息劳动是复杂劳动,创建期投入巨大,一些信息商品具有独特形式。将信息生产的不同时期的区分引入复杂的劳动过程和价值增殖的研究：信息商品创建期和扩大生产期都属于生产过程,在生产中获得价值增殖的潜力,而通过流通过程,创造出巨大数量的消费受众,从而实现了剩余价值的获得。巨大的规模投资、极高的技术门槛和政府政策保护使信息企业获得超额剩余价值。     

Labor theory of value and the uncertainty in capitalist economy

This article aims to offer a reply to Steedman’s critique of Marx’s labor theory of value. Although this critique having been there for about three decades, the anti-critiques from Marxists are up to date flawed with fatal limitation, losing sight of an important dimension of labor theory of value, i.e., without taking it as a theoretical tool of understanding the uncertainty rooted in capitalist mode of production. The first part of this article reviews the controversy initiated by Steedman. Part 2 discusses Marx’s dual theory of market value and Rubin’s interpretation. Our view is that, if Rubin’s interpretation is accepted, a refutation of Steedman’s critique towards Marx will be impossible. Part 3 of this article explores the possible reconstruction of market value in the perspective of the dynamics in the pivoting of market value. We concludes that, the relationship between the standard condition of production and value is not, as argued by Steedman, of deterministic and one-directional character. For Marx, labor theory of value is applied to analyze the uncertain relation between the means and the end, the condition and the result of capitalist production. Meanwhile, another reply is attempted towards the negative comment on labor theory of value made by contemporary evolutionary economist such as Hodgson. In our view, Marx’s labor theory of value is not irrelevant as claimed by Hodgson to the main topics of evolutionary economics such as variety and “natural selection.” It is through labor theory of value that Marx explains the co-evolution of technology and economy.     

A materialist development of some recent contributions to the labour theory of value

The paper offers a novel interpretation and affirmation of theopening arguments of Capital, answering the fundamental butneglected question of why labour is the substance of value.Marx's arguments require that two philosophical threads, oftenseparated in the literature on value, be woven together. Theargument that value is the intrinsic ‘content’ makingcommodities exchangeable employs the thread of realism. Theargument that abstract labour is the emergent ‘socialsubstance’ of value employs the thread of dialectics.This interpretation develops the materialist and dialecticalphilosophy of E.V. Ilyenkov and deepens the approach to valuetheory initiated by Ben Fine.