Monetary autonomy in emerging market economies: The role of foreign reserves

This paper examines trends in monetary autonomy and their interactions with financial integration, currency regimes and foreign reserves for recent decades in emerging Asian and Latin American economies. Our main findings are the following: First, most emerging Asian economies have increased monetary autonomy mainly due to changes in currency regimes toward floating regimes, while emerging Latin American economies have shown mixed results on monetary autonomy. Second, in all sample economies, the accumulation of foreign reserves has contributed to retaining monetary autonomy, probably implying the role of foreign reserves as an anchor for monetary autonomy in emerging market economies.     

中国金融开放:模式、基础条件和市场效应评估

本文分析中国金融开放的进程和现状,总结典型大国和新兴经济体金融开放的经验和教训,提出中国金融全面开放的路径选择,并评估开放后的市场效应。本文的核心观点是:中国金融全面开放的过程中,在政策设计上建议选取“货币政策独立和资本自由流动”之组合,形成市场决定的汇率形成机制;金融机构的开放是中国金融开放的独特路径,但人民币自由化始终是一个不能绕开的坎;中国金融全面开放的硬实力基本具备,但软实力相对薄弱,金融基础设施亟待改进和完善;中国金融全面开放的目标有两个,即人民币自由化、国际化和形成新的国际金融中心;中国金融开放后的市场效应具有大国经济和新兴经济体双重特征,全面开放后中国金融的市场变化(主要指人民币汇率)会呈现短期波动、长期收敛的趋势。     

Monetary Policy and Financial Inclusion in Sub-Sahara Africa: A Panel VAR Approach

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the dynamic and bi-causal link between monetary policy and financial inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa using a panel VAR framework. The researcher obtained data from World Development Indicators (WDI) spanning from 1990 to 2014 for 48 sub-Saharan African economies. The findings suggest that a bi-causal relationship exists between monetary policy and financial inclusion. Specifically, it is evident that monetary policy affects financial inclusion, and financial inclusion is also influenced by monetary policy. The policy implication of this study is that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends on financial inclusion. Hence, the efforts of governments in sub-Saharan African countries should aim at policies that enhance financial inclusion for effective implementation of monetary policy. Also, promoting financial inclusion will require governments in sub-Saharan Africa to reduce their monetary policy rates.     

Transmission of central bank communication to emerging economies: Evidence from the Korean stock market

This study analyzes the impact of US central bank communication on financial markets in emerging economies. We find that informal communication from the Fed positively influences the Korean stock market at a greater magnitude than the US stock market. The results show that the Korean stock market experienced higher excess return when Korea's monetary policy decisions are uncertain, suggesting that central bank communication in central countries could transmit to emerging economics through their monetary policy decisions and uncertainty. In addition, various portfolios and individual equities have a positive market risk-return tradeoff in the presence of Fed communication only.     

Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential,risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”

We use the wavelet coherency analysis in order to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate changes and its major financial determinants for selected emerging economies. Our analysis shows that the changes in exchange rate are correlated with interest rate differentials, risk premium, the FED's monetary policy implementation and its policy uncertainty. Moreover, the co-movement between the exchange rate changes and its financial determinants substantially changes across frequencies and over time. The co-movement patterns also vary to a large extent across “fragile” emerging markets. Finally, the strongest co-movement of exchange rate changes is with the risk premium in all countries.     

Best Practices in Credit Accessibility and Corporate Social Responsibility in Financial Institutions

The purpose of this article is to present and discuss some of the best practices of financial industry, in three emerging economies: Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The main thesis is that, notwithstanding the importance of certain specific deficiencies, such as an inadequate regulatory context or the lack of financial education among the population, the main factor that explains the low banking levels in emerging and developing economies, affecting mostly lower-income segments, is the use of inefficient financial service distribution models. In connection with this thesis, we will try to show that traditional financial institutions, both in developing countries and in the advanced economies have a special social responsibility to help create an efficient financial system that makes saving and borrowing instruments available to the greatest possible number of citizens.     

Understanding reserve volatility in emerging markets: a look at the long-run

In this paper, we examine long-run determinants of cross-country variation in reserve volatility for 30 emerging market economies from 1973 to 2000. Reserve holdings and openness are found to be the most important explanatory variables of reserve volatility. The empirical results are robust for a range of control variables, including monetary variables, the degree of financial development, and the level of indebtedness. We view these results as establishing interesting stylized facts that may be helpful in evaluating reserve volatility as a crisis indicator.     

Best Practices in Credit Accessibility and Corporate Social Responsibility in Financial Institutions

The purpose of this article is to present and discuss some of the best practices of financial industry, in three emerging economies: Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru. The main thesis is that, notwithstanding the importance of certain specific deficiencies, such as an inadequate regulatory context or the lack of financial education among the population, the main factor that explains the low banking levels in emerging and developing economies, affecting mostly lower-income segments, is the use of inefficient financial service distribution models. In connection with this thesis, we will try to show that traditional financial institutions, both in developing countries and in the advanced economies have a special social responsibility to help create an efficient financial system that makes saving and borrowing instruments available to the greatest possible number of citizens.     

Adjusting to BRICs in Glass Houses: Replacing Obsolete Institutions and Business Models

Global adjustment to the rise of the BRIC and other emerging economies is an important challenge for firms in the advanced economies. Emerging market firms increasingly trade and invest globally while monetary imbalances continue to rise and hobble advanced economy firms. Advanced country firms feel like they live in glass houses as the tectonic forces of technology, demographics, globalization, sustainability, and climate change force obsolescence in their business models. In this article, this overseas projection of economic power by the rising new economies is illustrated by the Indian and Chinese overseas economic expansion focused on Africa. This analysis shows that noneconomic state‐driven entities are likely to be a significant part of the rise of South‐South economic trade and investment flows and it poses theoretical and practical problems for existing market‐based economic and geopolitical institutions. Global adjustment to these new realities is also challenging as existing multilateral institutions seem to be inadequate. These changes in the global environment have significant implications for policy makers and managers of global companies. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Impact of the Financial Crisis on Cross‐Border Mergers and Acquisitions and Concentration in the Global Banking Industry

The global banking industry has seen dramatic changes in the past 40 years. Most recently, the financial liberalization of emerging markets and the global financial crisis have significantly impacted the market share of banks worldwide. This article investigates the impact of the 2007–2008 financial crisis on cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the banking sector and emphasizes the role of emerging‐market banks in the postcrisis consolidation trend. Using M&A data and concentration data over the period 2000–2013, our analysis indicates that the financial crisis had a significant impact on worldwide M&As, especially on the direction of the transactions. Emerging‐market banks appear to be major acquirers in the postcrisis period, targeting both neighboring countries and developed economies in Europe. We also observe an increase in bank concentration in developed markets most hit by the financial crisis, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom, whereas bank concentration decreased in emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

新冠肺炎疫情后各国主权债务风险及其前景

新冠肺炎疫情及其经济冲击促使许多国家财政赤字率和政府债务率大幅升高,其影响程度超过了2008年国际金融危机。笔者既不赞成现代货币理论(MMT)的看法,也不认同悲观派的看法。从影响各国主权债务风险的几大因素看,一些新兴市场经济体尤其需要关注利率的3种风险溢价:通胀风险溢价、货币贬值风险溢价和信誉(违约风险)溢价。展望未来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体将花费数年时间进行财政收支和政府债务调整,以渐进方式推进政府部门的去杠杆。     

美国贸易政策不确定性与新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动北大核心CSSCI

本文使用1996年2月-2020年1月35个新兴经济体的跨境股票型基金微观数据,实证考察美国贸易政策不确定性对新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动的影响。结果表明:美国贸易政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入下降,这一影响在2008年全球金融危机后更为显著。受国别因素影响,美国贸易政策不确定性的影响存在异质性。一国外汇风险暴露水平更高、国际金融一体化风险更大、与美国直接贸易联系更紧密,受到的美国贸易政策不确定性的影响更显著,更高的利率水平有利于缓解美国贸易政策不确定性的影响。从全球价值链视角来看,美国贸易政策不确定性上升对处于研发密集型行业下游和邮政通讯、金融商业服务等行业下游的经济体影响显著。渠道分析表明,全球投资者对新兴经济体的国别风险情绪变化是美国贸易政策不确定性冲击的重要传导渠道。进一步研究表明,中美贸易摩擦期间,主要受美国贸易政策不确定性影响,加征关税会显著降低新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入。在金融开放进程中,新兴经济体应防范外部不确定性引发的资本流动剧烈波动风险,保持宏观经济与金融市场稳定。     

The Fiscal Framework in a Currency Union: Lessons from a Comparison between the Euro Area and the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

This paper draws out lessons from the euro area (EA) that are transferable to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and other Caribbean economies with fixed exchange rates. Based on observations from both the EA and the ECCU, we present a new policy framework which is capable of imposing fiscal discipline, with the aim of avoiding the risk of unsustainable fiscal policies reappearing and of preventing monetary policy from being undermined by undisciplined national governments. In the ECCU case, we find that fiscal deficits are more a result of financial and trade imbalances than fiscal indiscipline per se. Consequently, constraints on overall debt, public and private, rather than direct limits on endogenous public deficits, appear to be the appropriate response.     

Factors Influencing Growth Potential of E‐Commerce in Emerging Economies: An Institution‐Based N‐OLI Framework and Research Propositions

Given the tremendous success of the Internet and e‐commerce in developed countries, emerging economies are quickly embracing information technology as well. The purpose of this study is to examine factors (both determinants and deterrents) influencing the growth potential of e‐commerce in emerging economies from a multitheoretical perspective (namely, institution‐based network‐ownership, location, and internalization, i.e., i‐based N‐OLI framework). Factors are identified at three levels. At the global level, we identify multilateral agreements, strategic behavior of multinational enterprises (MNEs), and technological innovation as the key factors. At the national level, institutional environment, infrastructure, and culture are identified. The transactional level examines the role of integrity of transactions, online intermediaries, and network externalities and value clustering as the key factors for growth of e‐commerce in emerging economies. Based on the multitheoretical framework, the study advances several propositions and highlights implications for MNEs, both from developed markets and emerging markets, operating in emerging economies. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Financial sector in resource-dependent economies

This paper examines financial sector characteristics in resource-dependent economies. Using an extensive data set covering 128 countries for the period 1995 to 2009, we present empirical evidence that the banking sector tends to be smaller in resource-dependent economies. Moreover, we locate a low threshold level at which the higher resource-dependence begins to be harmful for domestic banking sector. We also find evidence that the use of market-based financing is more common in resource-dependent economies. Further, our results suggest that a financial sector formed according to the needs of the resource sector might be unfavorable for emerging businesses, thereby hampering economic diversification and reinforcing the resource curse.     

Keynote Speech: Macro-Financial Policy Challenges in the Face of a Complex Environment: The Case of Mexico

Emerging economies face a complex environment as of April 2015, mostly as a result of a slowdown in global growth, an increased risk of capital flow reversals, and a reduction in the price of oil. Due to the effects of this reduction on external and fiscal balance, the environment is particularly adverse for oil-exporting countries. This article reviews the different channels through which the environment entails financial risk for emerging economies, focusing on Mexico, an emerging and oil-exporting country. Our analysis reveals that this country faces several macro-financial policy challenges stemming from the aforementioned financial risks.     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.     

Transforming Business Models in Fast-Emerging Markets–Lessons from India

There is a need for understanding the entrepreneurship and business models in the emerging economies, especially the fast-expanding ones, from a different perspective as compared to the developed economies. The consistent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, significant socioeconomic potential, untapped needs of the population, and economic growth potential in the fast-expanding emerging economies like the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have changed the paradigm for investment, thereby creating a new economic development reality and focus for the global companies. However, achieving success in these emerging markets has its own unique mix of challenges. This requires a transformative and innovative mind-set toward conceptualization of a working business model that can fit into the reality of the socioeconomic and cultural challenges of these emerging markets. Further, the business model changes and alignment in these emerging markets require closer analysis and understanding of the global trends as well as ability to leverage the emerging technologies and linkages. The objective of this article is to explore the magnitude of opportunities and emerging business models transforming the socioeconomic landscape in fast-expanding emerging markets. In doing so, the article attempts to provide an overview of the emerging business model typologies and patterns that will enable the global companies to make better-informed decisions and build their presence in the fast-expanding emerging markets. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies

In this paper, we examine the impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing. Using data from 35 emerging economies, we first document that higher trade and financial openness lower interest rates on gross bank loans using country-specific measures for trade and financial openness. We then confirm our findings using firm-specific measures for trade and financial openness and individual loan spread. Exploiting the accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) as a quasi-natural experiment, we observe loan interest rates declined in countries after joining the WTO. Overall, we imply that openness is beneficial for financial development in emerging economies.     

新兴经济体市场需求变化态势与中国企业选择——基于东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的调研

国际金融危机后,新兴经济体成为世界经济复苏及其持续发展的主要动力来源。以IMF界定的26个新兴市场国家为范围,通过东莞外向型企业拓展新兴市场的情况调研,发现新兴市场需求具有进口规模不大、增速快、市场需求差异比较大等特征,对中国企业拓展新兴市场具有一定挑战。中国企业必须转变对新兴市场的观念,采取多路径进入新兴市场,并加强对新兴市场的维护。