Monetary Policy,Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View

‘Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin’. Charles Kindleberger's book Manias, Panics and Crashes points out that speculation and crises have always been present: the world economic crisis of the 20th century, the South Sea bubble in the 18th century, and the tulip mania in the first part of the 17th century. Starting with the Japanese bubble in the 1980s we take the reader on a tour through 20 years of bubbles in emerging markets and industrial countries which have recently culminated in the 2007/08 US subprime market crisis. We explain the global stock market and real estate booms based on the real and monetary overinvestment theories of Hayek, Wicksell and Schumpeter, arguing that ample liquidity supply originating in the large industrialised countries has contributed – independent from the exchange rate regime – to overinvestment cycles in new and emerging markets around the globe. The policy implication is to keep interest rates not too low for too long in response to bursting bubbles.     

论中国通货膨胀下的货币政策有效性

在当今社会经济通货膨胀的状态下,中央银行首先应做的就是通过制定的货币政策抑制通货膨胀。本文通过对通货膨胀的现状及原因的分析,从而进一步探究中央银行制定的货币政策种类及其效应的积极性和局限性。     

Environmental Dimensions of Emerging Markets:

This paper offers an alternative classification/clustering of the countries in Central and Eastern Europe on the dimensions of marketization and Westernization. It argues that these dimensions are more useful to marketing analysts anrother marketing practitioners in their attempt to understand the complex markets of Central and Eastern Europe, since they are more focused and directly relevant to the practice of marketing, compared to the broader dimensions most often used to define marketing developments in the region: economic development and culture.     

Labor Markets and Monetary Policy

Headline employment numbers have been consistent with previous recoveries from recession. Behind the headlines, however, there are troubling data that suggest that the recovery of labor markets is weaker than what would be suggested by prior experience. In particular, labor force participation is weaker than expected, and the duration of unemployment has been longer. This paper describes the dimensions of the problems, their implications, and issues concerning whether the U.S. Federal Reserve could have done more to forestall them—particularly with respect to its Large Scale Asset Purchases program.     

The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies

This paper analyses the importance of global shocks for the global economic developments and national policymakers from a novel perspective. On the one hand, we examine whether global factors convey additional information about monetary conditions not summarised by national aggregates. More specifically, we keep an eye on the question whether domestic monetary policies have become less effective in the wake of financial globalisation. We adopt a FAVAR framework to derive structural shocks on a worldwide level and their impact on other global and also national variables. We estimate our macromodel using quarterly data from Q1 1984 to Q4 2012 for the G7 countries plus the euro area. According to our results, global liquidity shocks significantly influence the global economy at the commodity price level. However, some other common shocks originating from house prices and GDP play a role at the global level as well.     

The Global Challenge to Advertising

Abstract

Written by several executives of the International Advertising Association, “The Global Challenge to Advertising” was first made public at the 23rd IAA World Congress in Dublin in early June of 1973. The study, with detailed examples from many areas, brings into focus the two main currents of world-wide opposition to advertising: mounting consumer dissatisfaction with product quality and claims, and increasing government regulation and control of advertising. It is reprinted here by permission of the International Advertising Association, 475 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10017.     

Financial Globalisation and Emerging Markets Volatility

The volatility of capital flows to emerging market (EM) countries and frequency of financial crises have imposed high welfare costs on the countries involved. The empirical literature provides, at best, a mixed picture on the relationship between long‐run EM country growth and financial integration. Meanwhile, the prevailing policy discourse regarding reform of the international financial system remains incomplete: the focus has largely been on either institutional and policy measures required of EM countries or international crisis‐resolution procedures. The role played by private financial markets and institutions in the developed world has not received adequate attention. This paper describes some of the structural features inherent in today's financial markets that directly contribute to the instability in EM capital flows.     

Doing Business in Global Markets:

A frequently overlooked component of succesful international trade involves the efficient distribution of products. The present paper looked at international freight forwarder perceptions of the easiest and most difficult countries for arranging international freight operations. The forwarders overwhelmingly indicated that Great Britain was the easiest country for arranging international freight operations, which China emerged as the most difficult. Study results could be helpful both as competitive benchmarks and in formulating public policy.     

The Challenge of Electronic Markets for International Business Theory

We examine the extent to which the eclectic paradigm of international production, and its composite theories, can help explain the coming E-commerce revolution. Our findings are that the basic tenets of the paradigm appear to hold well, but the operational application of several of the constituent parts and the context in which they are being considered, need to be redefined in the light of some of the unique characteristics of Internet transport.     

分业经营下资本市场与货币市场之间的联结分析

本文首先理论上分析了货币市场和资本市场在金融自由化和分业条件下的联结机制,接着阐达我国分业条件下两个市场或明、或暗的连接现状,最后用误差修正方法实证分析我国分业经营下资本市场与货币市场之间的联结行为,指出:两个市场无论明的、暗的联结渠道都是通畅的,但同业拆借利率作为货币市场价格传导信号存在扭曲情况,居民和企业投资连接两个市场可能蕴含一定风险。文章最后提出了相关政策建议。     

货币政策委员会成员教育、职业背景与通货膨胀关系——国际比较与经验分析

通过考察中国货币政策委员会成员教育、职业背景与通货膨胀的关系,发现有工科、法学和经济学等教育背景的委员与通货膨胀率显著正相关,中央部委背景的委员与通货膨胀率显著负相关。国际比较研究发现,中国货币政策委员会成员教育、职业背景与西方低通货膨胀率国家及西方大国在结构上存在很强的相似性,但是经济学者背景和企业背景的委员比例较小。     

Brand Personality of Global Quick-Service Restaurants in Emerging and Developed Markets: A Comparative Study in Brazil and the U.S.

This study aimed to determine the dimensions of the personality of global quick-service restaurant brands perceived by young consumers in the U.S. and Brazil, and whether these dimensions showed similar configurations in both countries. A survey was carried out with two QSR brands (McDonald's and Subway). Data analysis utilized exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. The study identified five personality dimensions for each of the brands studied in each country. Results support the proposition that global brands can carry a common meaning across nations, but also that certain local nuances of brand personalities can differ.     

房价上涨、通货膨胀与货币政策的选择

在房价上涨助推通货膨胀理论分析的基础上,采取VAR和条件均值模型对房价上涨是否助长了通货膨胀以及货币政策的切入时机进行实证分析。结果显示,房价上涨通过影响总需求对通货膨胀有正向推动作用,房价上涨超过5%的6个月后存款准备金率上调,超过10%的12个月后利率上调。对此,提出积极调控房价并适时调整货币政策的建议。     

The Outsourcing of Research and Development in Global Markets: Evidence from France

The pace of technological change, the increasing need for multidisciplinary competences and the rising costs of innovation have contributed to the global expansion of technological activities, including the international outsourcing of research and development (R&D). This paper shows that firms involved in international outsourcing of R&D are of a particular kind: they are highly outward oriented, more productive and R&D intensive. Furthermore, firms with patents are more intensely involved in this activity. Our results also suggest that the outsourcing of R&D in global markets by French firms is motivated by technology sourcing rather than cost‐saving interests.     

外贸企业新兴市场客户风险评价指标体系构建研究

近年来,中国对新兴经济体进出口总体保持较快增长。由于新兴经济体自身存在的政治、经济结构等问题,决定了这是一个机遇和风险并存的市场。通过梳理我国外贸企业在新兴市场面临的主要风险,初步设计了外贸企业新兴市场客户风险评价指标体系,旨在帮助外贸企业进行客户风险评估,在出口市场多元化的同时,尽量规避风险。总体而言,来自于新兴市场的需求可以减少我国企业对传统市场的依赖,分散经营风险,但是由于新兴市场经济体自身存在的诸多经济结构问题,使其极易受到外部影响,贸易政策表现出重大的不确定性。我国外贸企业必须对此有充分的认识,并且努力设法规避这些风险,从建立内部风险管理机制着手,这样才能在分享新兴市场盛宴的同时,保护好自身利益。     

论新兴市场当地企业的知识管理

新兴市场的成就令人瞩目,然而当地企业的发展却受到了跨国公司的严峻挑战。本文从知识管理的角度出发,论述了面对挑战,当地企业要认识到企业核心竞争力的形成是在知识管理的促成下取得的,因此,当地企业要搞好五个方面的活动,取得知识管理的综合效益。     

Corporate Governance and Institutional Transparency in Emerging Markets

This paper posits that differences in corporate governance structure partly result from differences in institutional arrangements linked to business systems. We developed a new international triad of business systems: the Anglo-American, the Communitarian and the Emerging system, building on the frameworks of Choi et al. (British Academy of Management (Kynoch Birmingham) 1996, Management International Review 39, 257–279, 1999). A common factor determining the success of a corporate governance structure is the extent to which it is transparent to market forces. Such transparency is more than pure financial transparency; as it can also be based on factors such as governmental, banking and other types of institutional transparency mechanism. There may also be a choice for firms to adopt voluntary corporate disclosure in situations where mandatory disclosure is not established. The Asian financial crisis of 1997–1999 and the more recent corporate governance scandals such as Enron, Andersen and Worldcom in the United States and Ahold and Parmalat in Europe show that corporate governance and business ethics issues exist throughout the world. As an illustration we focus on Asia’s emerging¹ markets, as, both in view of the pressure of globalization and taking into account the institutional arrangements peculiar to the emerging business system, these issues are important there. Particularly for those who have to find an accommodation between the corporate governance structures and disclosure standards of the Emerging system and those of the Anglo-American and Communitarian systems.