Medical technology decisions in The Netherlands: How to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus market research?

In this article, we discuss a dilemma consisting of the market-oriented perspective of users of medical technology versus the long-term technology foresight perspective. The context of medical technology is interesting, because we have to cope with complex future-oriented multi-level and multi-actor strategic decision making. In order to deal with this dilemma we suggest combining the results of a (group) expert opinion forecasting approach with a more market-oriented scenario-approach. More specifically, we use the results of the Delphi-technique as the main input for the development of various capacity (Market-based) scenarios. We exemplify this approach by a real life example directed at the future of imaging techniques for cancer care in The Netherlands and focus on a set of scenarios that deal with the application of the MRI-technique in the period 2005–2015. The Delphi-panel's expectations with respect to imaging technology representing the technological forecasts, combined with other relevant developments (such as demographic and epidemiological developments) are translated into alternative inputs for assumptions of the scenario-model. This model is basic to the future projections in terms of needed MRI-scanners, manpower and investments. We argue that the results provide motivation to continue to explore the methodological interesting area of innovation, aligning the market-oriented perspective of users of (medical) technology with the long-term technology forecasting perspective.     

Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

经济民主与社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义:基于生产方式视角的分析

长期以来,作为社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义的主要载体,经济民主的作用并不明显。出现这一现象的原因有二:在理论上,学界关于经济民主的论述强调生产关系视角而忽视生产方式视角。这样的把握方式导致经济民主体系处于悬置的状态;在现实中,将美国型市场经济视为唯一的参照系导致具有后福特主义色彩的经济民主无法进入政策议程。本文认为,以生产方式视角下的经济民主为中心,有选择、有秩序地推进经济民主是当下的现实选择。     

Prizes for basic research: Human capital,economic might and the shadow of history

We study the distribution of basic scientific research across countries and time, and explain the process that resulted in the United States becoming the undisputed leader in basic research. Our study is based on the records of scientific awards, and on the data of global economic trends. We investigate the degree to which scale/threshold effects account for the number of prizes won. We constructed a stylized model, predicting a non-linear relationship with lagged relative GDP as an important explanatory variable of a country’s share of prizes. Our empirical research findings find support for these predictions and the presence of a “winner-takes-all” effect.      

高校科研促进黑龙江省“八大经济区”和“十大工程”战略目标实现的对策

阐述我国高校科研的现状及黑龙江省高校科研优势,分析高校科研对社会经济发展的作用,并结合黑龙江省"八大经济区"和"十大工程"战略目标,提出了以立足区域经济发展完善高校科研转化机制、打造创新平台、推进产学研合作、加快成果转化等对策,以服务于地方经济,推动区域经济发展。     

Enterprise restructuring and adjustment in the transition to market economy: lessons from the experience of Central and Eastern Europe

Some aspects of the process of enterprise restructuring and adjustment in the Central and Eastern European countries are analysed on the basis of evideance from recent empirical research on microeconomic performance in these transition economies. The paper outlines a stylized picture of some types of enterprise behaviour which occur in this period and highlights a number of issues related to the process of enterprise restructuring and adjustment such as the problem of micro budget constraints, the motivation for enterprise restructuring, the issues of corporate governance. Some of the current impediments to enterprise restructuring as well as some of the determinants of enterprise performance in the transition periód are also featured in the paper.     

Quantification of interdependencies between economic systems and ecosystem services: An input-output model applied to the Seine estuary

The aim of this paper is to assess the possible contribution of an input-output model towards two of the basic principles of the sustainability strategy of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and Post-Normal Science. According to these principles, decision-support tools should offer a holistic perspective and handle high uncertainty. The difficulties in reaching sustainability are due partly to the prevailing use of “narrow-system-boundary” tools that are non-holistic. Consequently, they fail to capture important ecosystem services and ignore interdependencies between them. To comply with the basic principles, our method allows environmental assets to be evaluated in multiple units and integrates results from recent researches in natural sciences. Both enable coverage of interdependencies between ecosystem services. Thereby, we enlarge input-output modelling from the two conventional ecosystem services of sink and provisioning to the most vital ones: the supporting services. An application to the Seine estuary addresses the impacts of maritime transportation infrastructures on nursery habitats for commercial fish. The ecosystem services covered are life support and resource provisioning. Our results show that the restoration of a total of 73.7 km² of nursery areas over the period 2004-2015 would result in a stock of sole in 2015 that exceeds the “business as usual” scenario by 44.2% (uncertainty range: 35.9%-69.9%). In spite of high restoration costs, the negative macro-economic impact is very low. However, on the sector level, a trade-off results between nurseries and three economic sectors. The quantification of such trade-offs in our model is particularly useful to public participation in decision-making.     

揭示"制度与增长关系之谜"的一个研究视角——基于中国经济转型与经济增长关系的实证研究(1978-2004)

本文通过对中国经济转型与经济增长之间的实证研究,发现经济增长是直接推动经济体制转型深化的内在动力,而经济转型虽然对经济增长有长期的影响作用,但这种作用却不是决定性的.在制度与增长二者关系中,制度虽然是影响增长的长期重要因素,但这种影响却不是决定性的;而恰恰相反,增长对制度的影响却是决定性的.这说明制度创新在增长的大背景中更易达到,而中国改革成功的经验也充分证明了这一点.