久期模型在财务中的应用

所谓久期就是指将所有影响债券利率风险的因素全考虑进去,形成一个经过修正的投资标准期限,用以衡量债券价格的利率风险程序,该标准期限越短,债券对利率的敏感度越低,风险越低;该标准期限越高，债券对利率的敏感度越高，风险亦越大。就目前对久期模型的研究而言，其基本上都是应用于融资企业，随着对久期模型研究的不断深入，相继有人提出了方向久期、偏久期、关键利率久期、近似久期以及风险调整久期等新的久期模型，把利率的期限结构、票息率的改变以及信用风险、赎回条款等加入到模型里面，使久期模型得到了进一步的发展，而在工业企业中的应用广度和深度有限。     

基于投资组合的债券投资免疫策略

随着债券市场的发展和央行利率政策运用的日趋频繁,债券持有者面临的利率风险已越来越引起广泛的关注.本论文通过分析债券投资的利率风险,其主要表现为价格效应和再投资效应,引出了度量利率风险的常用方法,包括久期和凸度,在给出构建债券投资组合基本要求的基础上,建立了债券投资组合免疫策略的模型,实现了债务久期与债券投资组合久期的相互匹配,从而在避免利率波动影响的同时提高债券投资组合的收益率.     

利率市场化下财务公司的利率风险管理——基于某财务公司的实证分析

伴随着利率市场化改革的推进和完成,利率频繁大幅波动将成为一种常态。为防范利率频繁波动对财务公司的利润和经营产生不良影响,财务公司可通过利用资产负债管理策略,合理配置资产和负债的资金规模,规避利率风险。文章根据我国财务公司当前的经营现状,提出将利率敏感性缺口和久期缺口这一传统资产负债管理工具应用到财务公司的利率风险管理中,通过分析利率敏感性缺口和久期缺口管理利率风险的优缺点,并进行实证研究,对财务公司在利率市场化的环境下如何应进行利率风险管理提出了相应的对策与建议。     

利率市场化下财务公司的利率风险管理——基于某财务公司的实证分析

伴随着利率市场化改革的推进和完成,利率频繁大幅波动将成为一种常态。为防范利率频繁波动对财务公司的利润和经营产生不良影响,财务公司可通过利用资产负债管理策略,合理配置资产和负债的资金规模,规避利率风险。文章根据我国财务公司当前的经营现状,提出将利率敏感性缺口和久期缺口这一传统资产负债管理工具应用到财务公司的利率风险管理中,通过分析利率敏感性缺口和久期缺口管理利率风险的优缺点,并进行实证研究,对财务公司在利率市场化的环境下如何应进行利率风险管理提出了相应的对策与建议。     

久期与凸度下分离可转债利率风险评估

分离交易可转债由于其收益稳定、风险低等特性受到机构投资者的青睐，但其价格受到包括利率在内的多种因素的影响，而管理分离可转债利率风险的关键在于利率风险的衡量方法，本文基于传统久期和凸度下探讨了分离可转债的利率风险。     

保险公司的资产负债管理中的特殊利率风险分析——“嵌入条款”的期权定价分析

保险公司作为金融企业的一种,其资产负债管理一般而言都采用久期和凸性的方法。但是保险公司的业务独特性使其资产负债管理不能仅仅局限于对资产和负债匹配的管理。寿险公司“的嵌入条款”,实际上是加大了公司的利率风险。尤其当宏观经济的波动比较大,比如利率处于上升的周期中,这种嵌入条款的存在使得公司对于同等的利率波动的损失可能行加大,也就是公司的风险程度上升。本文基于对“嵌入条款”的本质的分析,运用期权(surrenderoption)的定价方法来测算当前经济周期内这种风险的大小;并基于模型和当前的经济环境分析,给出一定的管理政策建议。     

个人消费贷款的利率期限和违约风险管理

一、引言 尽管资产与负债期限相互匹配的策略有助于规避利率风险,这一策略并不能使金融机构规避掉所有的利率风险.自上世纪80年代以来,金融创新异军突起,设计新的金融产品以解决利率风险成为了风险管理的首要问题,但它要求必须对基本的衍生工具及其如何被用来改变固定收益证券/资产的利率敏感度等有全面了解,由此催生了银行利率风险的缺口管理与模拟分析、应力测试、久期、免疫、凸度等技术方法,成为近年来利率风险管理研究的热点.     

货币供应量变动对家庭风险资产持有比例的影响研究——基于利率渠道视角

构建跨期投资决策模型,运用CHFS微观数据和相关的宏观数据,基于利率渠道研究了货币供应量变动对家庭金融参与及风险资产持有比例的影响。理论分析表明,货币供应量增加导致货币市场利率降低时,各类风险偏好家庭的金融参与及风险资产持有比例均会提高。实证结果表明：货币供应量变动对货币市场利率的影响较弱,利率渠道可能存在堵塞;货币供应量变动通过利率渠道对风险喜好家庭的金融参与及风险资产持有比例有部分中介效应,但对风险规避家庭有完全中介效应。     

住房公积金投资组合研究

本文总结了近年来全国住房公积金投资结构的变化过程,分析了银行存款和购买国债的收益和风险状况,指出利率风险是住房公积金投资组合的主要风险,构建了基于久期的多目标规划模型,并利用最新的银行存款和国债利率数据进行了实证分析,发现半年期定期存款和3年期凭证式国债具有相对较高的投资价值,当两者按照8∶2的比例构成住房公积金投资组合时,可以获得较高的收益和较低的风险。     

基于BAPM的企业权益资本成本研究

在行为资产定价模型（BAPM）,股票的权益资本成本和行为β相关。在非有效市场中,无风险利率、市场投资组合、行为β和市场风险溢价共同决定了权益资本成本。     

基于期权调整持续期的银行资产负债组合优化模型

提出了基于期权调整持续期的银行资产负债隐含期权风险控制原理,结合持续期缺口的控制和法律、法规约束等控制银行的利率风险与流动性风险。以贷款利息收益最大为目标,以线性规划为工具,建立了基于期权调整持续期的银行资产负债组合优化模型。本文的创新与特色一是提出了基于期权调整持续期的银行资产负债组合优化原理,避免了资产与负债中的隐含期权给银行带来提前偿付风险。二是将利率结构对称原理和数量结构对称原理引入资产负债组合优化中,控制了银行经营中的流动性风险与利率风险,保护银行股东权益的安全,保证了银行资产配给的合法性与合规性。     

Returns-to-scale and the equity premium puzzle

A model of heterogenous firms facing idiosyncratic risk is proposed which generates an equity premium of 6 per cent and a risk-free rate of 1.5 per cent even if aggregate returns are risk-free. The premium in this model reflects diminishing returns-to-scale and the fact that equity shares are equal claims to firm output. In the bond market, the risk-free rate reflects trade in assets at marginal rates of return with a linear technology and thus the equity premium in excess returns reflects a comparison of average returns with marginal returns. In the model, credit constraints lower the equity premium and, absent such constraints, the equity premium would roughly double. Since the model may be interpreted as a model of entrepreneurship, this paper also presents estimates from a structural model of entrepreneurship using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances and also finds only a modest level of risk aversion is sufficient to replicate entrepreneurial returns.     

A THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM*

Abstract In historical perspective, equity returns have been higher than interest rates but have also varied a good deal more. However, the average excess return has been larger than what could be expected based on classical equilibrium theory: the equity risk premium (ERP) puzzle. This paper has two objectives. First, the paper presents a comprehensive overview of the vast literature developed aimed at adjusting theory and testing the robustness of the puzzle. Here we will show that the failure of theory to link asset prices to economics is mostly quantitative by nature and not qualitative (anymore). Second, beyond providing a survey of theory, we aim for a relevant practical angle as well. Our main contribution is that we spend time on why returns have been higher than investors reasonably could have expected. We present evidence that forecasts of equity returns can be enhanced by valuation models: low valuation levels (low price‐to‐earnings ratios) portend high subsequent returns. While conventional wisdom (several years ago) was to use historical returns to forecast future returns, a growing consensus now recognizes that the predictive power of valuation ratios is preferred. Finally we provide some practical implications based on this predictability. While the ERP is essentially a long‐term issue, the likelihood of a lower risk premium increases risk for many and means that short‐term volatility might not be neglected.     

Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas

In this study, we used informational advantage in the options market to investigate whether the option-implied equity risk developed by Chen, Chung, and Tsai (2016) - viewed as a type of time-varying beta - can help explain both the Hou and Moskowitz (2005) price delay premium and post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Our empirical results revealed a clear association between quintile portfolios with greater price delay premiums and higher option-implied betas, while the Fama-MacBeth regressions showed that the implied betas are positively related to future delay-based portfolio returns. Regarding the PEAD, we discerned a general increase in the mean of portfolio option-implied betas with standardized unexpected earnings portfolio drift. Our regression results support the notion that a portfolio’s PEAD can be viewed as compensation for the variations in option-implied betas.     

Modeling non-normal corporate bond yield spreads by copula

This research focuses on modeling for how corporate bond yield spreads are affected by explanatory variables such as equity volatility, interest rate volatility, r, slope, rating, liquidity, coupon rate, and maturity. The existing literature assumes normality and linearity in the analysis, which is not the case in our sample. Thus, through a powerful and flexible copula approach, we study the dependence at the mean of the joint distribution by using the Gaussian copula marginal regression method and the dependence structure at the tails by using various copula functions. To our knowledge, this is the first application of the copula marginal regression model to bond market data. In addition, we employ several copula functions to test for the tail dependence between yield spreads and other explanatory variables. We find stronger tail dependence in the joint upper tail for the relation between equity volatility and yield spreads, among others. This result indicates the positive effect of equity volatility on yield spreads in the upper tail is greater than that in the low tail. This finding should be useful to practitioners, such as investors. By relying on better-fitting, more meaningful statistical models, this paper contributes to the extant literature on how corporate bond yield spreads are determined.     

Embedded options and interest rate risk for insurance companies,banks and other financial institutions

We explore how embedded options in assets and liabilities of financial institutions impact interest rate risk, which is measured by equity value change with interest rate movements. We find that both asset and liability durations decline when embedded options are present where liability duration declines more substantially. This leads to a duration-mismatch and a negative change in equity value when interest rates rise, but a positive change for interest rate declines. In a more sophisticated model, an option adjusted duration-matching strategy eliminates interest rate risk caused by duration-mismatch, but the convexity-mismatch remains large due to large negative convexity of callable assets and large positive convexity of putable liabilities. The interest rate risk introduced by convexity mismatch is quite large in comparison to that of duration mismatch. The pattern of this impact is complex and strongest for roughly intermediate maturities. We propose and show that a simple convexity hedging strategy with putable assets and callable liabilities (or caps and floors combined with floating rate assets and liabilities) reduces the interest rate risk substantially.     

股权融资和稳定股利政策下的可持续增长率模型

企业发展是企业谋求其长期生存发展的有效途径,但企业的长期过快增长通常导致财务资源高度紧张,企业增长过慢可能导致企业在竞争中处于不利地位,企业应该在保持目标经营效率和财务政策条件下,利用股东权益的增长获取相应的负债增长,保持企业销售增长与财务资源增长同步,使企业持续均衡发展。本文在介绍了内部增长率的基础上,分析了可持续增长率模型及其隐含的基本假设,在此基础上,推导出新情况下的可持续增长率模型,并对新模型在财务规划中的应用进行了初步探讨。     

EQUITY HOME BIAS: A REVIEW ESSAY

This paper reviews the relatively more recent literature on equity home bias – the empirical finding that people overinvest in domestic stocks relative to the optimal investment portfolio implied by the modern portfolio theory. It reviews six broad classes of explanation of this puzzling phenomenon: (1) hedging home risks; (2) barriers to foreign investments; (3) information asymmetries; and (4) behavioral factors. The consensus is that none of the explanations can account for the full extent of the bias by itself, thus the home bias should be explained by a combination of rational and behavioral factors.     

How would Eurozone equities respond to a bond sell‐off?

• We have developed a new model to measure the impact on Eurozone equities of a global bond sell‐off as the Fed starts to tighten its monetary stance later this year. We show that the most affected countries would be Greece, Finland and Portugal: the cumulated equity loss compared to the baseline ranges from between 35% to more than 50% in the case of Greece at the end of 2017. Under this scenario, Belgium, Ireland and Austria are less impacted by the global re‐pricing of risk.
• In light of global risk being skewed to the downside (China, Greece, risk‐off), it is essential to have a framework that is able to generate consistent responses of Eurozone stock indices to global macro shocks in stress test scenarios. The approach assesses first the co‐movements of Eurozone stock indices and aims to explain them with macro variables such as the US S&P index, the oil price, the euro/dollar exchange rate and short‐ and long‐term interest rate differentials between the Eurozone and the US.
• We find a high degree of co‐movement in Eurozone equity returns. This matters from an asset management perspective, as it reveals limited potential for diversification benefits of an equity portfolio invested across Eurozone countries.