公允价值估价收益法探析

公允价值的估价技术主要包括市场法、收益法和成本法,其中收益法以未来预期收益折现来确定公允价值。收益法中具体的估价方法包括期权定价模型、折现率调整法和期望现值法。最常用的期权定价模型是B-S期权定价模型;折现率调整法适用于存在合同约定的现金流或现金流容易确定的情况,如果这一条件不具备,可以采用期望现值法。     

网络购物中消费者决策行为模型的构建

本文基于技术接受模型、期望确认理论、感知风险和信誉信任建立了网络购物中消费者决策行为的动态模型．对消费者决策过程中各个阶段的影响因素进行分析,提出购物后的满意度对再次购买决策具有反馈作用。     

两种期权定价方法的等价性

期权定价就是在不确定的环境中对权利的一种定量,是对收益期望的贴现。期权定价的核心在于对于不确定的衡量,如何将不确定的事件定量化,其两种重要的方法是期望法和对冲法,二者的理论基础是伯努利大数定律。本文首先证明了两种方法的等价性,进而分别就离散状态和连续状态进行了说明。     

中国铁路客运服务实行差别定价问题研究—一个时间价值参照点依赖视角

一般研究认为,差别定价是改善中国铁路定价机制和增加铁路企业收益的重要管理策略.本文通过应用一个考虑时间价值参照点的理论解释框架及定价模型论证了:由于旅客时间价值参照点存在异质性,当铁路旅客需求足够大时,铁路企业实施差别定价所获得的收益并不优于单一定价.因为单纯地实施差别定价可能会满足具有不同时间价值参照点旅客的运输需求,但也有可能会降低铁路企业收益.基于此,作者认为铁路企业虽然有实行差别定价的内在驱动力,但该策略的实施还需要根据具体的旅客需求数量进行动态调整.此外,作者还认为铁路企业可以依据差别定价原理对现行的“实名制”售票模式进行改进,从而提高铁路运输资源分配效率.     

考虑资金时间价值的网店产品动态定价研究

在资金时间价值影响背景下,以仅有网店渠道的销售商为研究对象,为在期末能将产品销售完毕并最大化其收益,在假设顾客所订商品由卖家免费配送,并且顾客在收到产品之前可以取消订单的前提下,通过建模给出了销售商期初的最优订货量、期内价格调整的最佳次数及每阶段的最优价格的动态定价求解算法。最后的算例分析表明模型和算法是有效的,且动态定价相对于静态定价能带来更大的收益。     

样本效应与软件产品定价策略研究

样本试用之所以成为软件产品重要的销售策略,目的在于降低消费者对产品功能水平认知的不确定性,奠定市场基础.基于收益管理理论,结合学习效应和网络外部性,分析消费者行为和市场期望均衡,本文建立了目标最大化的收益模型,探讨了最优的定价策略,通过数值分析相关参数对最优价格、销售量和收益的影响.结论显示:在试用期限的限制下,将最优的定价策略划分为三个区域,包括:(1)无盗版、无威胁;(2)无盗版、有威胁;(3)有盗版;在盗版的风险成本较高情况下,较低的定价和较短的试用期限将发挥优势,并对价格、试用期限、销售量和盗版的风险成本之间地权衡抉择可取得最大收益.     

随机利率模型与认股权证的定价

本文首先介绍了一系列无风险瞬时利率的连续时间模型,然后运用MLE估计法对它们的离散模型进行检验与估计.随后,利用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对邯钢权证进行了定价研究,定价结果表明,邯钢权证的市场价格明显被高估,意味着可能存在严重的市场投机现象.     

连续时间剩余收益模型及股价连续波动分析

离散时间股票估值模型与股价连续波动走势之间存在矛盾。通过建立收益分解模型,获取上市公司实时财务数据,产生预测数据,生成连续时间剩余收益函数,在此基础上,建立股票的连续时间剩余收益估值模型。该模型提高了股票估值的准确性与时效性,并能够从会计盈余视角对股价短期波动走势作出理论解释与合理预测。     

流动性与资产定价:基于中国A股市场的实证研究

Acharya and Pedersen（2005）提出的考虑流动性风险的资本资产定价模型（即LCAPM）认为，证券的期望收益取决于其期望流动性成本、其流动性成本和市场流动性成本与市场收益的协方差。以及其收益和市场收益与市场流动性成本的协方差。本文用中国股市的收益数据对Acharya and Pedersen（2005）的LCAPM进行了实证检验。结果发现，在各种不同的市场特征下，基于流动性的CAPM模型更好的拟舍了资产收益，不同的模型设定使得结论相对稳健。这说明流动性水平和流动性风对我国股市的资产定价有重要影响，在我国证券市场资产评估中要考虑流动性的重要性。     

从“不在书店”的经营看消费者感知价值对消费者偏好的影响

在科技快速发展时代,电子书和互联网书籍的大面积覆盖,对我国独立书店冲击极大。消费者感知价值与偏好对我国独立书店的可持续发展显得尤为重要。文章以定量研究方法,探究"不在书店"的服务感知、产品感知、品牌形象感知对消费者偏好的影响,构建消费者感知价值对消费者偏好影响机制的模型,提出相应假设并以数据论证假设成立,深层次解读消费者感知价值对消费者偏好的作用机制,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

The influence of seller learning and time constraints on sequential bargaining in an artificial perishable goods market

This paper investigates the formation of prices in a perishable goods market where agents bargain repeatedly through pair-wise interactions. After extensive field observations, we chose to focus on two aspects that seem important to actors of this market: the passage of time and update in judgement when gathering information. The main feature of the market is that a seller bargaining with a buyer has incomplete information about buyer's willingness to pay and is not sure how her trading partner will evaluate an offer or compare it with other options. On the other hand, buyers have limited time to look for goods and cannot meet all possible sellers before making a decision. Hence agents cannot calculate the best price to offer but receive information through limited interactions, and use this information to choose their actions.An agent-based model was built to represent a framework that mimics the observed market institution and where agent's possible behaviors and learning was made as consistent as possible with gathered data. Simulations were run, first for sensitivity analysis concerning main parameters, then to test the dependance of agents’ learning to (a) the time buyers can spend on the market and (b) the frequency of update in learning by sellers. To validate the model, features produced by the simulated market are compared to the stylized facts gathered for negotiation about four goods. We reproduce the main features of the data on the dynamics of offers, transaction prices and agents’ behavior during the bargaining phases.     

时间和价格影响需求的变质物品促销研究

质物品的销售策略是商家制定销售计划的重点。价格折扣是目前商家最为常用的策略。但大都是供应商面对零售商的价格折扣。文章结合实际情况,研究了在需求和价格随时间同时变化条件下,零售商面对顾客时如何制定变质物品的临时价格折扣策略．并发现临时价格折扣会影响物品的销售速度。通过建立模型及对模型求解。得出使零售商利润最大时的最优折扣价格和实施临时价格折扣的最佳时刻,实例分析表明零售商采用最优的临时价格折扣策略后利润会有明显的增大。     

基于策略型消费者的预售策略研究

季节性易逝品的销售期短,并且残值低,这类产品可以采用预售策略.考虑消费者估价不确定性及消费者的策略性行为,对预售策略的定价及库存进行了研究.同时优化了预售价格及实物销售价格,得到了当消费者的估值分布满足一定的条件时的最优价格,并通过建立报童模型,得到了最优的产量及利润.通过预售与不预售两种策略的比较,得到了销售商采取预售策略的充分条件.最后,对模型进行了数值分析.     

Adverse Selection with Competitive Inspection

We develop a model with heterogeneous buyers and sellers in which the sellers have private information about their goods' qualities. We show that efficient trading cannot occur without middlemen. Middlemen can provide two services: one is inspection, and the other is the sorting of buyers and sellers through the rationing of sellers and the provision of two different price schedules. The latter service permits the possibility of achieving the first best. When the first best is not attainable, there is a second best characterized by two intervals, one consisting of low-quality noninspected goods, and the other of high-quality inspected goods. We determine whether first and second best outcomes can be implemented in a market equilibrium with both zero and infinite buyer-seller search costs. First and second best outcomes are attainable under a larger set of parameter values when search costs are infinite; also, typically too much inspection occurs in a market equilibrium. Welfare may be either raised or lowered by the introduction of middlemen.     

双边平台型信息产品企业版本划分策略研究

新兴的信息产品市场大多是双边市场,其中企业进行竞争时如何利用信息产品特性和市场双边特性,对产品质量和双边定价进行决策,运用纵向差异化策略达到最优收益,是双边平台型信息产品企业面对的重要问题。结合双边市场理论与版本划分理论,建立博弈模型,分析双边信息产品市场内平台型企业竞争的最优双边定价和产品版本划分的具体质量。结果显示:企业产品定价受产品组合质量差异的影响,对卖家定价由市场情况决定;企业提高付费产品质量可以提高收益,此时免费产品质量应根据市场双边特性强度进行调整;市场双边特性显著时企业免费产品质量应降低以提高收益,反之亦然;企业产品质量决策保证了双边规模和上游收益,下游收益则受市场双边特性强弱影响,市场双边特性显著时,平台付费产品价格和付费消费者规模提高,下游收益和总收益提高。     

Common-value auction versus posted-price selling: an agent-based model approach

Previous theoretical work has compared a private-value auction and posted-price market, and an affiliated-value auction and a posted-price market to determine the selling method preferred by sellers. Much less, however, is known about the seller’s preferred selling method when the buyers have a common value of the item. Our objective is to determine if a first-price auction or a posted-price market provides a seller with the larger expected revenue when buyers have a common value of the item being sold. An agent-based posted-price market and an agent-based first-price common-value auction with a reserve price are developed to compare these selling methods. Holding the buyers’ uncertainty about the value of the item constant, the seller prefers the posted-price market when the seller has no uncertainty about the item’s value. When the seller has an equal level of uncertainty as the buyers, the seller’s expected revenue for each market is similar. As the seller’s uncertainty increases beyond the level of the buyers’ uncertainty, the auction with a reserve price eventually becomes the preferred choice.     

A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities

This paper estimates the long- and short-run elasticities for Lotto. It is particularly concerned with the dynamic response to price variations since, for some goods, this has sometimes been used to infer the presence of addiction. The price elasticity is identified through variation in the expected value of a Lotto ticket induced by rollovers whose high frequency results in surprisingly high variation in the expected value of holding a ticket. Unit root tests are applied to the series in order to identify their time series properties and to avoid a spurious regression problem. The series are found to be stationary. We apply instrumental variables to account for the endogeneity which arises due to correlation between the expected value and the dependent sales variable. The estimated long-run elasticity exceeds the short-run elasticity and this supports the hypothesis that there is an element of addictive behaviour in sales. The Lottery is regulated and the regulator's objective is to maximize sales. Our estimated long-run price elasticity of demand is inconsistent with revenue maximization and we find that greater revenue for the 'good causes' could be raised from the game if a smaller proportion of sales revenue were allocated to them.     

价格、时间敏感性应链收益混合分配契约模型研究

供应链企业通过何种契约方式进行协同合作,以达到整体目标的最优,是供应链管理的一个重要研究课题。在一个两阶供应链系统中,面对价格和响应时间敏感性市场需求,文章通过引入供应商的激励—响应时间函数和市场关于价格和响应时间的需求函数,构建了供应链的收益混合分配契约模型,最后文章给出了算例分析,验证了该模型的可行性。     

Equilibrium price and advertisement distributions

We consider an economy where many sellers sell identical goods to many buyers. Each seller has a unit supply and each buyer has a unit demand. The only possible information flow about prices is through costly advertising. We show that in equilibrium the sellers use mixed strategies in pricing which leads to price and advertisement distributions. With convex advertising costs each seller sends only one advertisement in the market. We also delineate a class of advertising costs which ensures that sellers may send multiple advertisements in equilibrium. Higher prices are advertised more than lower prices.     

Pricing used books on Amazon.com: a spatial approach to price dispersion

This paper estimates a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model of price dispersion using publicly available internet bookselling data. It uses a semiparametric adaptive estimator that does not require the usual Gaussian assumption of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators. The results suggest that both price competition and seller heterogeneity are key drivers of the observed price dispersion. The paper finds that sellers with large sales volume, newly established sellers and US mainland states-based sellers tend to price lower. The identified significant spatial interaction is evidence of spatial price competition. Controlling for everything else, a seller asks a lower price when large sellers charge relatively high prices, which is also evidence of price-based selling and undercutting.