商业银行股票估值的比较研究

本文首先阐述了各类估值方法对商业银行股票估值的适用性。在此基础上提出基于公司成长性的估值模型和基于净资产增长的估值模型,并采用重置成本的思想对商业银行股票估值的安全边界进行确定,最后得到相关结论。     

基于DDM模型和相对估值法下的企业价值评估

企业价值估值理论的发展经历了MM理论、自由现金流量估值模型、资本资产定价模型等理论,理论模型逐渐完善,理论体系也在不断发展。本文通过对估值理论及估值方法的总结梳理,选取古井贡酒集团为调研对象,根据其企业发展特点,运用DDM模型估值和相对估值法中的市盈率法进行估值。综合以上两种估值方法,结合企业真实的财务数据和相关价值理论,针对该现状提出企业可通过利用现代多媒体的渠道增加企业曝光度,加大企业数据透明度等方式吸引投资者进行投资,改善企业被低估的问题。     

简析会计信息激励作用与估值作用动态关系

本文在文献模型的基础上,引入高管风险厌恶及拥有私人信息两个更一般的前提假设,建立解析模型讨论会计信息估值作用及激励作用之间的相互关系,以期得到更一般性结论。结果表明了会计信息与真实企业价值同步变化可能性大小影响其在市场估值中的作用及其在激励契约中的作用,由此两者之间建立起了正向关系。     

三板医药类企业估值问题研究——基于PEG模型的分析

近年来随着新三板市场的进一步扩大,新三板上的医药企业数量也日渐增长。对三板医药类公司估值问题,理论上的研究目前并不充分,仅依靠投资机构的单一实践与投资研究。所以外界对三班医药公司的估值研究仍是单点单线,尚未形成系统。基于此,本文将为今后的估值提供一些个人的浅显看法,扩充该问题的研究思路,完善对于三板医药类公司估值问题的方法。本文结合了《非上市公司股权估值指引》的建议,在传统PE模型中加入公司增长率G的因素进行调整,能更准确地对目标企业的价值进行估量。     

电商企业价值评估方法实证研究

通过对电子商务企业价值评估方法(市盈率估值法、折现现金流量法和剩余收益估值法)进行比较分析,采用70家上市电子商务企业的数据进行实证研究,将样本电子商务企业的市价与模型和通过模型计算的结果两方面进行回归分析,比较三种方法对电商企业的市值的解释力,得出剩余收益估计模型较其他估值模型的优越性,证明了剩余收益估价模型能够有效评估电商企业的市值。     

基于用户流量的互联网企业会计估值问题研究

企业估值问题一直以来是个会计学术界面临的一个共同难题,特别是如今互联网大潮时代的一些互联网企业的涌现,有些企业虽然尚未实现盈利,但市场给出的估值报价却高居不下,传统会计估值方法如自由现金流模型,市盈率模型对于此类新兴企业变得不再适用。本文力求通过用户流量这一财务外指标对企业估值给出合理性答案。     

企业价值股票估值模型构建及其验证

本文从Feltbanl-Ohlson模型出发,探讨企业价值的来源,针对我国证券市场的估值问题,构建企业价值股票估值模型.同时结合我国证券市场进行实证分析,验证了该估值方法的有效性.     

互联网企业并购估值方法问题研究

近年来,互联网行业蓬勃发展,经济行为愈发频繁,企业间的并购更是屡见不鲜,随之而来的便是对于互联网企业准确估值的迫切需求。但由于互联网企业的特殊性,传统估值方法不再适用。文章就这一问题展开研究与探索,引入梅特卡夫模型,并以B企业并购A企业为例,探究梅特卡夫模型对互联网企业并购估值的适用性,以期为互联网企业并购估值方法的选择提供借鉴意义。     

基于超额收益不确定的物流企业数据资产价值评估——以顺丰控股为例

基于数据资产对物流企业的超额收益不确定性特征，本文通过运用二叉树模型方法对超额收益不确定性进行描述分析并对数据资产估值的传统超额收益法进行改进，从而给出基于超额收益不确定的物流企业数据资产估值模型。将此应用于顺丰数据资产估值案例，以检验模型有效性。结果表明，基于超额收益不确定的所构建模型估值不仅接近实际值，而且对不确定性大小的变化表现较高的稳健性。     

税收超常增长的再认识

本文首先对税收超常增长给出一个简要界定,意在从量上对税收的超常增长有一个再认识,以区别"超常增长"和"正常增长".在此基础上对超常的增长从其来源结构上进行分解,以便于更好地对增长的原因和趋势进行分析和预测;其次对超常增长的原因进行分类与概括,并认为应将增长总体区分为实增和虚增两大部分;最后分析各种不同的原因所引致的税收增量的变化规律,并据此对税收超常增长的趋势进行预测.     

公司估价中股权自由现金流折现模型分析

自由现金流量折现估值法是企业价值评估理论中最为成熟的模型。运用由自由现金流量定义衍生出的股权自由现金流量折现方法作为研究对象,选取3家上市公司进行案例分析,通过对永续增长模型、两阶段增长模型、三阶段增长模型在企业价值评估中具体应用的比较,并与真实市值对比,其结果表明,股权自由现金流折现法下采用永续模型和两阶段模型得到的估算值能够最好的拟合上市公司的流通市值。股权自由现金折现流模型对于我国A股市场中一些成熟行业且发展稳定公司的价值评估是比较准确的,从而一定程度上能为投融资双方、收购企业和目标企业的决策者提供参考。     

Estimates of the cost of equity for public utilities, 1961–1976

Using a simple version of the dividend cash flow (DCF) model of stock valuation, the cost of equity for public utilities is often inferred to be equal to the sum of the dividend yield and the expected rate of growth in dividends. Witnesses who employ this approach generally extrapolate past growth patterns into the future and then assume that investors expect these trends to continue; no effort is made to actually assess the expectations of investors. This approach to estimating the cost of equity for public utilities is criticized for the failure to develop testable hypotheses as an inferential basis for testing the statistical reliability of estimates of the cost of equity. This article demonstrates an alternative to the traditional approach, based on the premise that reliable estimates of the cost of equity are derived only within a methodological framework that produces testable hypotheses. The Gordon model of share valuation is formulated in such a way as to show that there is a systematic and predictable relationship between the ratio of market price to book value of common stock and a firm's normal or expected return on equity. This relationship suggests an econometric model that not only tests the Gordon model of share valuation but produces at the same time, inferences concerning the cost of equity. Using this approach, year-end estimates of the cost of equity for electric utilities are determined for the 16-yr period from 1961 to 1976.     

R&D,Advertising and the Market Value of Internet Firms: Part I

ABSTRACT

This article is the first part of the study that attempts to explain the valuation of Internet firms during the dot.com “bubble” period from 1996 to 2000. One section of the article is dedicated to detailed literature review on valuation of firms, particularly firms with a high proportion of intangible assets. Another section presents a theoretical foundation for valuation on Internet firms based on the investment opportunities approach to valuation of growth shares. Finally, the last section presents testable hypotheses regarding the relationships between market values of Internet firms and several independent variables.     

Network valuation in financial systems

We introduce a general model for the balance‐sheet consistent valuation of interbank claims within an interconnected financial system. Our model represents an extension of clearing models of interdependent liabilities to account for the presence of uncertainty on banks' external assets. At the same time, it also provides a natural extension of classic structural credit risk models to the case of an interconnected system. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of a valuation that maximizes individual and total equity values for all banks. We apply our model to the assessment of systemic risk and in particular for the case of stress testing. Further, we provide a fixed‐point algorithm to carry out the network valuation and the conditions for its convergence.     

Pricing Vulnerable Options with Jump Clustering

This paper presents a valuation of vulnerable European options using a model with self‐exciting Hawkes processes that allow for clustered jumps rather than independent jumps. Many existing valuation models can be regarded as special cases of the model proposed here. Using numerical analyses, this study also performs sensitivity analyses and compares the results to those of existing models for European call options. The results show that jump clustering has a significant impact on the option value. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Applications of Eigenfunction Expansions in Continuous-Time Finance

We provide exact solutions for two closely related valuation problems in continuous-time finance. The first problem is to value generalized European-style options on stocks that pay dividends at a constant dollar rate. The second problem is to find the yield curve associated with the economy of R. C. Merton's "An Asymptotic Theory of Growth Under Uncertainty." In Merton's economic growth model, the interest rate process has a volatility linear in the rate level and a linear/quadratic drift. Both problems are solved by an eigenfunction expansion technique. The main technical difficulty is handling the problem of payoff functions that are not square-integrable with respect to the natural weight function of the models.     

Certainty equivalent,risk premium and asset pricing

This paper attempts to determine the certainty equivalent of an uncertain future cash flow or value through the option pricing method, and builds models of certainty equivalent and certainty equivalent coefficient. Based on the model of certainty equivalent coefficient, this paper further derives models of risk premium and risk-adjusted discount rate. The latter is a new capital asset pricing model (CAPM) accounting for total risk rather than with only the systematic risk accounted for as in the current CAPM. The reliability in relevant financial analysis, valuation, decision making and risk management may be enhanced with these new models.     

The valuation of closely-held companies in Latin America

M&A activity has greatly increased in Latin America in the recent past. As a result, the improvement of valuation techniques has gained a prominent place in the agenda of investors and financial analysts dealing with the region. The task entails two substantial challenges, however. First, fundamental valuation requires the determination of an appropriate cost of capital, and the traditional CAPM-based models which are normally used to compute it are difficult to apply in such transitional, less efficient markets. Second, most companies and transactions in Latin America are closely-held operations, and hence bear components of unsystematic risk which classical appraisal techniques do not easily capture. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive fundamentals-based valuation model and provide supporting empirical data for valuing privately-held companies in Latin American emerging markets.     

Derivatives pricing with liquidity risk

This paper develops a novel, general derivative pricing model which introduces a liquidity risk factor. The model variants we outline offer a sufficient degree of flexibility so as to enable the valuation of various types of derivative classes including futures, American options, and mortgage backed security options, whereas existing derivative models can only price liquidity risk in European derivatives. We validate the model with oil and gold futures data and compare it to a classical benchmark model void of any liquidity risk. We find that our model is significantly more accurate than the classical model for pricing both oil and gold contracts.     

Pricing Defaultable Bonds Using a Lévy Jump‐Diffusion Model

This paper uses a reduced‐form approach to derive a closed‐form pricing formula for defaultable bonds. The authors specify the default hazard rate as an affine function of multiple variables which follow the Lévy jump‐diffusion processes. Because such specification allows greater flexibility in the generation of a valid probability of default, their pricing model should be more accurate than the valuation models in traditional studies, which ignore the jump effects. This paper also proposes a new method for estimating the parameters in a Lévy Jump‐diffusion process. The real data from the Taiwanese bond market are used to illustrate how their model can be applied in practical situations. The authors compare the pricing results for the influential variables with no jump effects, with jump magnitudes following the normal distribution, and with jump magnitudes following the gamma distribution. The results reveal that the predictive ability is the best for the model with the jump components. The valuation model shown in this paper should help portfolio managers more accurately price defaultable bonds and more effectively hedge their portfolio holdings.