竞争力、市场微观结构与证券交易所变革

纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克实施的重大并购行动标志着全球证券交易所新一轮并购浪潮的兴起,证券交易所之间的竞争再度趋于白热化.交易所之间的竞争已演变为市场微观结构的竞争.本文对纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的交易成本进行了比较,无论是上市成本还是交易成本,新兴的纳斯达克都比传统的纽约证交所更胜一筹.因而本文认为有效降低交易成本应是提高交易所核心竞争力的关键所在,而改进交易机制、拓展产品服务以及调整组织架构,可以作为降低交易成本、提高交易所竞争力的具体竞争策略.     

全球股票市场交易费用变动趋势研究

各国证券交易所为提高市场质量和增强国际竞争力,进行了股票市场交易费用结构与费率的频繁调整。本文首先总结了美国、英国、日本、香港等国家和地区交易所现行交易费用的结构特征,并以纽约证券交易所和伦敦证券交易所为案例估算了交易费率的调整比率。其次,本文运用2002年至2010年期间主要海外证券交易所的财务数据和市场数据,分析交易费用变动与交易所经营业绩的互动关系。最后,我们对欧美市场交易费用的大幅下调进行了成因分析,并探讨我国证券交易所内外部环境及经营特点与海外市场存在的差异,提出相关启示和思考。     

Insider Trading in the Hong Kong Stock Market

Many previous studies on insider trading are based ondata in the U.S. capital market and conclude thatinsiders can earn abnormal profits. This paperexamines abnormal price performance associated withinsider trading in the Hong Kong stock market. We findthat abnormal profits associated with insider tradingare all concentrated on small firms. Trading volumedoes matter in determining the magnitude of thoseabnormal profits. Our results show that insiders ofmedium-sized and large firms do not earn abnormalprofits. Finally, it is found that outsiders who mimicthe information of insider trades associated withmedium-sized and large firms cannot earn abnormalprofits.     

机构投资者、知情人交易和市场效率——来自中国资本市场的实证证据

2001年之后,我国机构投资者正经历着一个快速发展的时期。针对之前屡屡发生的违规行为,机构投资者在我国资本市场发展过程中究竟扮演了什么样的角色目前还存在很大的争议。根据Grossman与Stiglitz(1980)等研究提出的信息经济学理论,机构投资者的作用更直接的体现为通过知情人交易向市场传递信息。在以往研究的基础上,本文通过考察机构投资者交易对股价中公司特有信息含量的影响,从信息的角度对机构投资者在我国资本市场中所起到的作用进行了更进一步的检验。在控制了内生性、噪音等因素影响之后,实证结果显示机构投资者交易确实增加了股价中的公司特有信息含量,提高了市场的效率。本文加深了对我国资本市场中机构投资者的理解和认识,从更直接的角度验证了引入机构投资者对市场的作用,另一方面也在一定程度上说明监管者正确导向了机构投资者的行为。     

投资者情绪对股价联动的影响--基于中国证券市场的实证研究

分别从个股层面以及市场层面探讨投资者情绪对中国证券市场股价联动现象的影响。实证揭示：（1）中国证券市场存在显著的股价联动效应。（2）投资者情绪对股价联动现象存在显著的负向影响。（3）个股层面的投资者情绪变量对股价联动的影响大于市场层面的综合情绪变量。（4）投资者情绪对不同行业的股价联动的影响存在差异。     

全球外汇衍生品交易的发展特点及启示

该文根据国际清算银行对全球外汇衍生品交易的调查统计情况,对全球外汇衍生品交易及主要交易货币的在岸与离岸外汇衍生品交易的发展特点进行了归纳,以期为国内外汇衍生品市场的发展提供借鉴。文章指出,结合本国汇率和资本项目管理体制改革逐步取消外汇衍生品交易的实需原则,有利于在维护金融稳定的前提下进一步发展本国的外汇衍生品市场。     

Empirical Evidence on the Role of Trading Suspensions in Disseminating New Information to the Capital Market

Abstract:  This paper examines the effect of temporarily suspending the trading of exchange-listed individual stocks. We evaluate whether regulatory authorities can successfully use the mechanism of trading suspension in forcing companies to disclose new and material information to the capital market. Previous studies on trading suspensions mainly concentrate on North-American stock markets and find conflicting results. This study utilizes a new data set comprising of firms listed on Euronext Brussels – an important segment of Europe's leading cross-border exchange. Our results show that suspension is indeed an effective means of disseminating new information. Stock prices adjust completely and instantaneously to the new information released during trading suspensions. We also observe a significant increase in trading volume with the reinstatement of trading. On the other hand, we do not find support for the claim that trading suspensions increase the volatility of stock prices. Overall, our results show the efficacy of trading suspensions in disseminating new information.     

基于面板数据的我国知情交易与股价信息含量研究

知情交易概率是指知情交易委托单占总交易委托单的比重,用于度量我国知情交易强度.R2代表公司回报率能被市场回报率解释的程度,R2越大,股价信息含量越低.在以往的研究基础上,利用面板数据来考察知情交易概率与股价信息含量的关系,发现知情交易概率越低,R2越高,股价信息含量越低.在控制了流动性与部分公司财务指标后,实证结果依然显示我国股价信息含量与知情交易概率存在正相关关系,说明我国知情交易者进行交易时,更有利于公司特质信息进入股票价格.     

股指期货与现货市场的关系研究

本文从市场结构、交易执行效率和市场信息传播三个方面,由浅入深地展开了期现货市场关系的梳理和分析。股指期货市场的出现,一是使得原本现货市场单轨运行的市场结构变为了期现货市场双轨运行的新结构,增加了市场稳定性;二是依托期货交易方式的独特机制,大大提高了交易执行效率;三是期货价格也因此包含了更多内容,促进了市场信息的传播与扩散。同时,股指期货的独特设计使得其非常适合在危机条件下充分发挥功能,是一个重要的风险管理工具,已经成为现代资本市场的重要组成部分和基础性的内在稳定机制。     

Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules: Further Evidence from U.S., U.K., Asian and Chinese Stock Markets

Tian, Wan and Guo (2002) explored the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules in markets with different efficiency levels; namely, the U.S. and China. In the case of the U.S. they found rules to have no predictability after 1975, whereas their results give support to technical trading rules having both predictability and profitability for the Chinese markets across the 1990's. The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of Tian et al. in two ways. First, to see if the conclusions extend to other markets – namely, the U.K., Hong Kong and Japan. Second, in the case of China, to examine whether the predictability and profitability of technical trading rules changed across the 1990's. On the basis of daily data Tian et al's results for the U.S. market are supported by the results for a number of the main developed markets where the technical trading rules had predictive ability during the 1970's that disappeared by the 1990's. Furthermore, the results suggest that while technical trading rules had short term predictive ability and profitability in the Chinese stock markets during the 1990's, this lessened as the decade progressed. JEL Classification: G14, G15     

Technical Trading Rules in Emerging Markets and the 1997 Asian Currency Crises

The ability of simple technical trading rules to forecast future stock market movements is considered for seventeen emerging markets, sampled from January 1986 to September 2003. Some of the trading rules considered generated significant returns; this information could be exploited profitably on occasion. Market conditions and trading volume are found to be important to determining the usefulness of technical trading rules.     

我国证券市场税收政策浅析

我国现行以证券交易印花税为主体的证券税制,在组织财政收入、调节证券市场、抑制过度投机等方面发挥了一定作用,但还存在一些不足之处。建议:进一步调整证券交易印花税的征收办法;建立一套系统、健全的证券税制;消除对公司和股东个人股、红利的重复征税;统一上市公司的企业所得税政策。     

监管制度变迁对深圳证券市场效率的影响

本文回顾了十多年来我国证券市场监管制度的变化,运用统计分析和混沌理论来分析市场监管制度对深圳股票市场市场效率的影响.本文认为,深圳股票市场在经历了十年多的发展后市场效率在宏观上有所提高.对重大监管政策出台前后市场变动情况的统计分析表明,大量监管政策的出台在微观层面也有一定的改进.     

Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange (FX) market is worldwide, but the dealers differ in their geographical locations (time zones), working hours, time horizons, home currencies, access to information,transaction costs, and other institutional constraints. The variety of time horizones is large: from intra-day dealers, who close their positions every evening, to long-term investors and central banks. Depending on the constraints, the different market participats need different strategies to reach their goal, which is usually maximizing the profit, or rather a utility function including risk. Different intra-day trading strategies can be studied only if high-density data are available. Oslen & Associates (O & A) has collected and analysed large amounts of FX quotes by market makers around the clock (up to 5000 non-equally spaced prices per day for the German mark against US$). Based on these data, a set of real-time intra-day trading models has been developed. These models give explicit trading recommendations under realistic constraints. They are allowed to trade only during the opening hours of a market, depending on the time zone and local holidays. The models have been running real-time for more than three years, thus leading to an ex ante test. The test results, obtained with a risk-sensitive performance measure, are presented. All these trading models are profitable, but they differ in their risk behaviour and dealing frequency. If a certain profitable intra-day algorithm is tested with different working hours, its success can considerably change. A systematic study shows that the best choice of working hours is usually when the most important markets for the particular FX rate are active. All the results demonstrate that the assumption of a homogeneous 24-hour FX market with identical dealers, following an identical ‘rational expectation’, is far from reality. To explain the market dynamics, a heterogeneous model of the market with different types of dealers is more appropriate.     

Stock Exchange Reforms and Market Efficiency: the Italian Experience

This paper examines whether the reforms introduced by the Italian Stock Exchange from 1991 to 1994 (creation of specialised intermediaries, obligation to trade on the official markets, screen-based trading and cash settlement) did increase market efficiency. The issue is addressed using both the traditional information efficiency model, which tests market efficiency by verifying the predictability of prices conditional on some information subset, and a microstructure approach that measures efficiency as the distance of the price movements from their efficient components, represented by a random walk process. The joint analysis of daily and intraday data on prices and volumes validates the hypothesis that most of the reforms have increased market efficiency over the sample period, except for cash settlement, which appears to have substantially reduced it.