THE DEMAND FOR GASOLINE: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA

In this paper we investigate the demand for gasoline in Canada using recent annual expenditure data from the Canadian Survey of Household Spending, over a 13‐year period from 1997 to 2009, on three expenditure categories in the transportation sector: gasoline, local transportation, and intercity transportation. In doing so, we use three of the most widely used locally flexible functional forms, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980), the quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) of Banks et al. (1997)—an extension of the simple AIDS model that can generate quadratic Engel curves—and the Minflex Laurent model of Barnett (1983), which can also generate quadratic Engel curves. We pay explicit attention to economic regularity, argue that unless regularity is attained by luck, flexible functional forms should always be estimated subject to regularity as suggested by Barnett (2002), and impose local curvature to produce inference consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory. Our findings indicate that the curvature‐constrained Minflex Laurent model is the only model that is able to provide theoretically consistent estimates of the Canadian demand for gasoline. Our estimates show that the own‐price elasticity for gasoline demand in Canada is between ? 0.738 and ? 0.570 —less elastic than previously reported in the literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Penalized Quantile Regression with Semiparametric Correlated Effects: An Application with Heterogeneous Preferences

This paper proposes new ?₁‐penalized quantile regression estimators for panel data, which explicitly allows for individual heterogeneity associated with covariates. Existing fixed‐effects estimators can potentially suffer from three limitations which are overcome by the proposed approach: (i) incidental parameters bias in nonlinear models with large N and small T ; (ii) lack of efficiency; and (iii) inability to estimate the effects of time‐invariant regressors. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to assess the small‐sample performance of the new estimators and provide comparisons of new and existing penalized estimators in terms of quadratic loss. We apply the technique to an empirical example of the estimation of consumer preferences for nutrients from a demand model using a large transaction‐level dataset of household food purchases. We show that preferences for nutrients vary across the conditional distribution of expenditure and across genders, and emphasize the importance of fully capturing consumer heterogeneity in demand modeling. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Demand for Health Care Services in Rural Tanzania

This paper examines the pattern of health care demand in rural Tanzania. We distinguish between hospital and clinic‐based care, in both the public and private sector using a two‐level nested multinomial logit model. Own price elasticities of demand for all health care options are high, although less so for public clinics and dispensaries than other choices. However, there is a high degree of substitution between public and private care. Consequently, price increases or user fees will result in small percentage of people opting for self‐treatment. Another important contribution of this paper is that the quality of medical care has large effects on health demand. This applies to the quality and availability of doctors/nurses, drugs and the clinic environment.     

Competition Among Health Plans: A Two‐Sided Market Approach

We set up a two‐sided market framework to model competition between a Prefered Provider Organization (PPO) and a Health Maintenance Organization (HMO). Both health plans compete to attract policyholders on one side and providers on the other. The PPO, which is characterized by a higher diversity of providers, attracts riskier policyholders. Our two‐sided framework allows us to examine the consequences of this risk segmentation on the providers' side, especially in terms of remuneration. The outcome of the competition depends mainly on two effects: a demand effect, influenced by the value put by policyholders on the providers access and an adverse selection effect, captured by the characteristics of the health risk distribution. If the adverse selection effect is too strong, the HMO receives a higher profit in equilibrium. On the contrary, if the demand effect dominates, the PPO profit is higher in spite of the unfavorable risk segmentation. We believe that by highlighting the two‐sided market structure of the health plans' competition, our model provides a new insight to understand the increase in the PPOs' market share as observed in the USA during the last decade.     

How to Regulate Heterogeneous Hospitals?

In many areas of health care financing, there is controversy over the sources of cost variability and about the respective roles of inefficiency versus legitimate heterogeneity. This paper proposes a payment system that creates incentives to increase hospital efficiency when hospitals are heterogeneous, without reducing the quality of care. We consider an extension of Shleifer's yardstick competition model and apply an econometric approach to identify and evaluate observable and unobservable sources of cost heterogeneity. Moral hazard can be seen as the result of two components: long‐term moral hazard (hospital management can be permanently inefficient) and transitory moral hazard. The latter is linked to the manager's transitory cost‐reducing effort. For instance, he or she can be more or less rigorous each year when bargaining prices for supplies delivered to the hospital by outside firms. The use of a three‐dimensional nested database makes it possible to identify transitory moral hazard and to estimate its effect on hospital cost variability. Econometric estimates are performed on a sample of 7,314 stays for acute myocardial infarction observed in 36 French public hospitals over the period 1994–1997. We obtain two alternative payment systems. The first takes all unobservable hospital heterogeneity into account, provided that it is time invariant, whereas the second ignores unobservable heterogeneity. Simulations show that substantial budget savings—at least 20%—can be expected from the implementation of such payment rules. The first method of payment has the great advantage of reimbursing high‐quality care. It leads to substantial potential savings because it provides incentives to reduce costs linked to transitory moral hazard, whose influence on cost variability is far from negligible. This payment rule could be extended to other areas of health care financing, such as Adjusted Average Per Capita Cost to calculate Medicare Managed Care reimbursements in the United States.     

Does military expenditure crowd out health-care spending? Cross-country empirics

The trade-off between military expenditure and public health spending has remained an unsettled empirical issue. This paper investigates whether military expenditure has crowded out public health spending in 116 countries (including a subsample of 87 non-OECD countries) over the period 2000–2017. Through our system generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimations, we find that military expenditure, whether it is measured on a per-capita basis or as a proportion of total government expenditure, has a positive impact on the demand for health care. Nonetheless, we find a significant crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending by taking into account government fiscal capacity. The evidence we present supports the long-standing view that military expenditure has a particular ability to compete government financial resources away from publicly funded health spending. By interacting the military expenditure variable with income per capita, we find that an increase in income per capita has neutralized the crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending – less well-off countries stand to suffer most, and wealthy ones stand to suffer least, from the crowding-out effect. The crowding-out effect is statistically more specific to middle- and low-income countries in our samples.

     

A dynamic almost ideal demand system incorporating consumer expectations

In this paper a theoretical framework is presented for the analysis of the effects of psychological, perceptual or expectational factors on household expenditure within a complete demand system. The model was estimated using the Consumer Sentiment Index, which represents an index of consumer perceptions of economic conditions. Evidence was found for significant expectational effects on five of nine expenditure categories—food at home, alcohol, housing, durables and other services. The direct expectation effects were found to be small in size. The results demonstrate the model's potential usefulness as a framework for modelling consumer behavioral responses to expectations and for evaluating the welfare implications of policy-induced changes in expectations.     

Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.     

Estimation of Poverty Transition Matrices with Noisy Data

This paper investigates measurement error biases in estimated poverty transition matrices. We compare transition matrices based on survey expenditure data to transition matrices based on measurement‐error‐free simulated expenditure. The simulation model uses estimates that correct for measurement error in expenditure. We find that time‐varying measurement error in expenditure data magnifies economic mobility. Roughly 45% of households initially in poverty at time t ? 1 are found to be out of poverty at time t using data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study. When measurement error is removed, this drops to between 26 and 31% of households initially in poverty. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incentive effects in the demand for health care: a bivariate panel count data estimation

This paper contributes in three dimensions to the literature on health care demand. First, it features the first application of a bivariate random effects estimator in a count data setting, to permit the efficient estimation of this type of model with panel data. Second, it provides an innovative test of adverse selection and confirms that high‐risk individuals are more likely to acquire supplemental add‐on insurance. Third, the estimations yield that in accordance with the theory of moral hazard, we observe a much lower frequency of doctor visits among the self‐employed, and among mothers of small children. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ENDOGENIZING CONSUMPTION IN THE INPUT‐OUTPUT MODEL: THEORY AND APPLICATION

Since the basic model of input‐output analysis does not take into consideration the income effect on consumption expenditure, we constructed a model which endogenizes consumption and breaks down integrated production inducement into Leontief and Keynesian effects in a generalized context and in two solution approaches. Using short‐term marginal consumption propensities, we estimated that Keynesian effects make up about 14% of the integrated inducement effects for Japan. The public services sector, which is not influential in the basic model, becomes very influential in consideration of Keynesian effects. Manufacturing and service sector products are the main targets of the expanded consumption. The impact of a change in exogenous final demand can be easily simulated by applying the suggested apparent input coefficient matrix to the integrated inverse matrix.     

Is gravity linear?

Despite the solid theoretical foundation on which the gravity model of bilateral trade is based, empirical implementation requires several assumptions which do not follow directly from the underlying theory. First, unobserved trade costs are assumed to be a (log‐)linear function of observables. Second, the effects of trade costs on trade flows are assumed to be constant across country pairs. Maintaining consistency with the underlying theory, but relaxing these assumptions, we estimate gravity models—in levels and logs—using two data sets via nonparametric methods. The results are striking. Despite the added flexibility of the nonparametric models, parametric models based on these assumptions offer equally or more reliable in‐sample predictions and out‐of‐sample forecasts in the majority of cases, particularly in the levels model. Moreover, formal statistical tests fail to reject either parametric functional form. Thus, concerns in the gravity literature over functional form appear unwarranted, and estimation of the gravity model in levels is recommended. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A decomposition of trends in U.S. consumer expenditures on communications and travel: 1984–2002

This paper offers a conceptual and partly empirical decomposition of the trends in U.S. consumer expenditures on five communications and nine transportation subcategories between 1984 and 2002. We find that inflation nearly always increases unit prices. Income effects are positive for all categories, meaning that these are all normal goods, not inferior ones. We speculate that taste changes have contributed to increasing expenditures in most categories, with the exception of out-of-town lodging, the public transit component of the public transportation category, and the old communication media categories of postage and reading. We suggest that production and technological changes have led to decreased unit prices in most categories. In the private vehicle operations categories, technological improvements dominate, so that expenditure shares have been decreasing despite increasing demand. Conversely, in the new media categories, taste changes dominate, so that expenditure shares are increasing despite technological improvements which lower prices. The decomposition explored here enhances our understanding of these important expenditure categories, and provides a useful methodology with which to examine trends in other categories as well.     

Multiple Visits and Data Quality in Household Surveys

In order to increase data quality some household surveys visit the respondent households several times to estimate one measure of consumption. For example, in Ghanaian Living Standards Measurement surveys, households are visited up to 10 times over a period of 1 month. I find strong evidence for conditioning effects as a result of this approach: In the Ghanaian data the estimated level of consumption is a function of the number of prior visits, with consumption being highest in the earlier survey visits. Telescoping (perceiving events as being more recent than they are) or seasonality (first‐of‐the‐month effects) cannot explain the observed pattern. To study whether earlier or later survey visits are of higher quality, I employ a strategy based on Benford's law. Results suggest that the consumption data from earlier survey visits are of higher quality than data from later visits. The findings have implications for the value of additional visits in household surveys, and also shed light on possible measurement problems in high‐frequency panels. They add to a recent literature on measurement errors in consumption surveys (Beegle et al., 2012 , Gibson et al., 2015 ), and complement findings by Zwane et al. ( 2011 ) regarding the effect of surveys on subsequent behaviour.     

Semiparametric estimation of consumer demand systems in real expenditure

Microdata concerning consumer demand typically show considerable variation in real expenditures, but very little variation in prices. We propose a semiparametric strategy for the consumer demand problem in which expenditure share equations are estimated nonparametrically in the real expenditure direction and estimated parametrically (with fixed or varying coefficients) in price directions. In our model, Engel curves are unrestricted: demands may have any rank. Because the demand model is derived from a cost function, it may be restricted to satisfy integrability and used for consumer surplus calculations. Since real expenditure is unobserved, but rather estimated under the model, we face a semiparametric model with a nonparametrically generated regressor. We show efficient convergence rates for parametric and nonparametric components. We illustrate the feasibility of our proposed strategy using Canadian expenditure and price data: Engel curves display curvature which cannot be encompassed by standard parametric models. We also find that the rationality restriction of Slutsky symmetry is rejected in the fixed‐coefficients model, but not in the varying‐coefficients model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beyond profitability: effects of acquisitions on technical efficiency in the Italian pasta industry

Unlike traditional studies on the impact of ownership changes—which use either profitability measures or stock prices—this paper investigates the impact of acquisitions on acquired firms' technical efficiency. Using a panel of Italian firms in the pasta industry for the 1981–1997 period, I estimate a stochastic production frontier with exogenous factors affecting efficiency in a translog specification with non‐neutral technical progress. The main result is that acquired firms experience, within the 6 years period following the acquisition, an increase in technical efficiency of the order of 10%. This result is statistically significant and proves to be robust with respect to the inclusion of size and calendar year effects as explanatory variables of firms' inefficiency. These findings contribute to the debate on the welfare gains of ownership changes by providing evidence that mergers and acquisitions lead to cost savings, due to the reduction of acquired firms' X‐inefficiency. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting Retirement Upon Eligibility: An Embeddedness Perspective

Concern over the impact of baby‐boomers' retirement on needed skills and proprietary knowledge has stimulated an interest in identifying workplace factors associated with retirement upon eligibility. Drawing from embeddedness theory, the authors identify work‐based antecedents potentially underlying a related, but distinct, form of withdrawal—retirement upon eligibility. The authors generate and test hypotheses regarding the impact of fit‐, sacrifice‐, and links‐related antecedents using a prospective study design and a national probability sample of some 500 older individuals who, at the time of the initial interview, were within months of becoming—for the first time—eligible to receive such benefits. The findings indicate that, beyond the effects of person‐based antecedents (e.g., age, health, assets, expected retirement income), a combination of fit‐ (i.e., job challenge), sacrifice‐ (i.e., perceived organizational support), and links‐related factors (i.e., stability of close workplace peer relations) have a substantial influence on the decision to retire upon eligibility. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Demand for durable and nondurable goods,environmental policy and consumer welfare

If a tax on energy affects the demand for a nondurable good, the stock of a durable good, and the proportion of the energy consumption per unit of service of the durable good, an integrated approach for investigating consumer demand for durables and nondurables is required. The purpose of this paper is to employ the concept of a variable expenditure function with quasi-fixed durable goods as arguments in order to derive a demand system for nondurable goods in prices of the nondurables, in the stocks of durables, and in variable expenditure. From the envelope condition desired stocks of durables can be calculated and investment demand for durables can be determined. For an application we choose a variable expenditure function based on the almost ideal demand specification, and evaluate alternative environmental policy measures using the equivalent variation for comparing the welfare effects.