Fiscal Foresight,Limited Information and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks

We quantify the impact of government spending shocks in the US. Thereby, we control for fiscal foresight, a specific limited information problem (LIP) by utilizing the narrative approach. Moreover, we surmount the generic LIP inherent in vector autoregressions (VARs) by a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. We find that a positive deficit‐financed defence shock raises output by more than in a VAR (e.g. 2.61 vs. 2.04 for peak multipliers). Furthermore, our evidence suggests that consumption is crowded in. These results are robust to variants of controlling for fiscal foresight and reveal the crucial role of the LIP in fiscal VARs.     

财政分权对地方政府非生产性公共支出的影响——以教育和行政管理支出为例

本文基于非生产性公共支出直接利益归属的不同,同时由于地方政府官员并非都存在追求职位晋升唯一目标,经济绩效也并非决定地方政府官员晋升的唯一因素、社会网络资源对其晋升的也存在重要影响,对中国式财政分权与教育和行政管理支出的关系进行了理论分析;同时利用中国30个省份1998-2006年的面板数据,运用可行广义最小二乘法和似不相关回归方法进行实证研究。得出以下主要结论:中国式财政分权的总体效应是抑制了地方政府教育投入的力度,而刺激了行政管理支出的增长;而且,行政人员规模的增长在刺激行政管理支出膨胀的同时,对教育支出产生显著的"挤出"效应。     

Local Government Modernization: UK and Comparative Analysis from an Organizational Perspective

This article analyses three strands of local government modernization. The first takes an overview of the development of 'modernization' and 'improvement' of local government in the UK under the Labour government since 1997 and the overall programme of reform. We discuss both the shifts and the continuities with the previous decade and a half of the 'new public management' of Conservative administrations. We examine the implicit assumptions about how to achieve organizational and cultural change, arguing that much modernization is premised on a mechanistic metaphor of organizational change. The second section of the article examines other metaphors and theories of organizational change, arguing for the need to consider institutional and organizational perspectives in analysing local government modernization. The third section of the article then applies some organizational concepts to the comparative analysis of local government modernization.     

基于德尔菲调查的市级地方政府问责主体研究

根据面向全国政府绩效评估专家的德尔菲调查信息,分析了我国市级地方政府问责主体的现状和未来趋势.研究发现,德尔菲专家认为不同问责主体的地位存在差异;在未来三年内,党委及其部门的问责主体地位将得到进一步巩固,统计局、审计局等绩效信息收集专业机构的地位将有所凸显,同时学术专家和政协的问责主体地位得到了较多的重视,而对于国内一度备受瞩目的"公众问责政府"来说,机遇与挑战并存,其发展趋势并不明朗.     

Tourism satisfaction and perspectives: an exploratory study in Italy

Quality & Quantity - The aim of the paper is to analyze the specific features of tourism in Italy through tourists’ behaviour and satisfaction level and to individuate future...     

Probabilistic Bounds on the Virtual Multipliers in Data Envelopment Analysis: Polyhedral Cone Constraints

The paper is concerned with the incorporation of polyhedral cone constraints on the virtual multipliers in DEA. The incorporation of probabilistic bounds on the virtual multipliers based upon a stochastic benchmark vector is demonstrated. The suggested approach involves a stochastic (chance constrained) programming model with multipliers constrained to the cone spanned by confidence intervals for the components of the stochastic benchmark vector at varying probability levels. Consider a polyhedral assurance region based upon bounded pairwise ratios between multipliers. It is shown that in general it is never possible to identify a center-vector defined as a vector in the interior of the cone with identical angles to all extreme rays spanning the cone. Smooth cones are suggested if an asymmetric variation in the set of feasible relative prices is to be avoided.     

提前期因素在装备器材供应需求变异中的影响分析

装备器材供应中的需求变异现象是长期影响部队装备保障的难题，文章依据需求变异提前期因素的最新研究进展，结合我军器材供应的实际模式和操作流程，提出通过缩短提前期和优化提前期分布的应用策略来抑制装备器材供应中的需求变异。     

转轨时期政府支出与居民消费关系的实证研究

本文在代表性消费者最优消费行为理论分析的基础上,运用1978～2006年的经验数据,对政府支出与居民消费的动态关系进行了实证分析。结果显示:政府支出对局居民消费的动态影响取决于政府支出的结构和时期;而且政府支出对城镇居民和农村居民消费的影响存在显著差异即呈现出典型的"二元结构"特征。基于此,本文就调整政府支出结构促进居民消费增长提出了相关的政策建议。     

On the Sources of the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle across Time and Frequencies

This study quantitatively assesses existing explanations for the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle using time–frequency domain analyses for nine countries for the period 1885–2010. The main findings are summarized as follows. First, large economies (e.g. the United States, Italy) show higher correlations between saving and investment than middle‐sized and small countries do. Second, countries can be grouped into two time‐changing patterns of correlations: inverted U‐shaped and increasing patterns. Third, the fiscal balance seems most related to a positive saving‐investment correlation in many countries. Fourth, a global common factor plays an important role in explaining the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle.     

中国地区经济增长的收敛性:时间序列的经验研究

本文运用Bernard & Durlarf (1995,1996)的时间序列分析法,通过对中国东中西部三大地区内和地区间人均产出序列的协整关系检验,从一个新的视角研究了我国地区内和地区间经济增长的收敛性。实证结果表明,东部和西部地区内的经济增长具有收敛性,而中部地区内和三大地区间的经济增长却不存在收敛趋势。另一个发现是中部各省的经济增长在长期受三个共同冲击的影响,东中西部地区的经济增长在长期受两个共同冲击的影响。     

Structural Change in Poland, 1980–90: Evidence from Social Accounting Multipliers and Linkage Analysis

The 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s have witnessed a period of economic reforms in Poland. The paper uses aggregated social accounting multipliers to assess whether any structural change at a macro-economic level has taken place in this period. Linkage analysis is adopted to evaluate intersectoral reallocation of resources. The results support the view that some macro-economic adjustment has taken place but they do not provide evidence of significant intersectoral shifts.     

The Modernization of UK Local Government: Markets,Managers, Monitors and Mixed Fortunes

Since 1997 UK central government has launched a bewildering array of new initiatives known collectively as the 'local government modernizing agenda' which represent an ambitious attempt to transform the performance and the politics of local authorities in the UK. The aim is to improve local services, enhance community governance and increase public confidence in the institutions of local government. Some of the key elements of this agenda, notably attempts to persuade authorities to make greater use of markets, to encourage strategic management techniques and the reliance on external monitoring, draw heavily upon the New Public Management and build directly upon previous reforms. Others, in particular the emergence of a more diversified approach to regulation of local government, signal a new and distinctive approach to public service improvement. The result is a combination of multiple drivers of change and paradoxical 'operating codes' which reflect both the politics of the modernizing agenda and our current lack of understanding about which approaches will prove most effective in enabling performance improvement in the public sector.     

高等学校政府会计理论研究与分析——N高校为例

高等学校2019年1月1日起执行政府会计制度,在《高等学校政府会计实务》进入"磨合期"运行期间,发现存在诸多业务"疑点",有待"更正调整"科目存在。定义科目运用不能只局限于平面考量,应具有多角度立体定位。基于这一认识,探讨出会计科目运用恒等式的"近似直线型"简化核算处理模式案例,以便减少"无效信息及无效工作量"带来的繁琐。以点带面实现操作性应用推广。     

Political Profit: Taxing and Spending in Democracies and Dictatorships

A bstract . The economic analysis of the power to tax and spend, or what Franz Oppenheimer called "the political means," is applied to democracies and to dictatorships. The constraints imposed by democracies and dictatorships on the "iron law of political redistribution" and the "law of hierarchical centralization" are examined. It is shown that the fiscal exploitation inherent in these two laws of political profit reaches its fullest potential in a dictatorship, where a single firm attempts to monopolize the government by forbidding competition to its rule. Democracy and capitalism are correlatives, since they both rest upon rights , which necessarily imply property. Both socialism and dictatorship destroy rights, the former by abolishing private ownership over capital and resources, the latter by forbidding the use of such resources for the purpose of competing against the ruling group. The greater the centralization of the State , the greater its capacity to expand its power; and the greater the scope of the State, the more economical it becomes to centralize the government, with force if necessary. Thus, dictatorship and socialism converge in despotism.     

Government Time Discounting and Required Rates of Return: UK History and Current Issues

The UK government first set financial objectives for the nationalised industries in 1961 and subsequently promoted the use of ‘discounted cash flow’ for investment appraisal. The nationalised industry regime evolved until, in the 1990s, it was succeeded by economic regulation regimes for the privatised utilities. Meanwhile discounting conventions emerged and have continued to evolve for wider government policy analysis, including aspects of climate change. Issues about the size and functions of public expenditure notwithstanding, UK government conventions are currently fairly uncontroversial: however, in the world at large, government discounting remains subject to many academic and international controversies and misunderstandings.     

某混合结构办公楼的检测分析与抗震鉴定

在对既有建筑物进行改造加固时,对建筑物主体为砖混结构而屋顶为钢结构的混合结构的检测鉴定是较为复杂的。通过对某混合结构形式的办公楼整体结构检测与抗震分析,阐述了混合结构检测鉴定的内容与方法以及运用PKPM软件进行建模分析和抗震验算的过程。鉴定分析结果可为该建筑的改造加固提供意见,也可对同类混合结构的检测鉴定提供参考。     

Political Profit: Taxing and Spending in the Hierarchical State

A bstract . The actions of government fall into two types: taxes (the taking of property ) and expenditures (the awarding of gifts ). Politicians profit as long as the value of resources raised from taxation exceeds the cost of expenditures. From their point of view, fiscal efficiency consists in maximizing the support obtained by spending and minimizing the opposition generated by taxing. This is accomplished by spending on well-organized groups and taxing the uninformed public. This results in the "iron law of political redistribution" in which income and wealth are transferred from the latter to the former. In a hierarchical State , it is usually profitable for those at the top to centralize control over taxing and spending, if for no other reason than to make it difficult for politicians at lower levels to compete against them. This gives rise to the "law of hierarchical centralization "—in a hierarchical State, power becomes centralized over time. The greater the power of government, the faster this process takes place. In order to avoid this problem, one could design constitutions which are non-hierarchical in nature, in which each unit of government is completely autonomous from the others, as firms are in a free market.     

政府投资的水利工程施工合同中变更索赔技巧分析

随着水电建筑市场开发力度的不断加大,政府投资的水利工程施工合同中的变更索赔工作日益重要。文章结合工作实际,探讨如何运用技巧解决变更索赔问题,从而降低或消除履约的风险。     

政府投资的水利工程施工合同中变更索赔技巧分析

随着水电建筑市场开发力度的不断加大,政府投资的水利工程施工合同中的变更索赔工作日益重要.文章结合工作实际,探讨如何运用技巧解决变更索赔问题,从而降低或消除履约的风险.     

Combining monetary policy and prudential regulation: an agent-based modeling approach

This paper explores the interaction between monetary policy and prudential regulation in an agent-based modeling framework. Firms borrow funds from the banking system in an economy regulated by a central bank. The central bank carries out monetary policy, by setting the interest rate, and prudential regulation, by establishing the banking capital requirement. Different combinations of interest rate rule and capital requirement rule are evaluated with respect to both macroeconomic and financial stability. Several relevant policy implications were drawn. First, the efficacy of a given capital requirement rule or interest rate rule depends on the specification of the rule of the other type it is combined with. More precisely, less aggressive interest rate rules perform better when the range of variation of the capital requirement is narrower. Second, interest rate smoothing is more effective than the other interest rate rules assessed, as it outperforms those other rules with respect to financial stability and macroeconomic stability. Third, there is no tradeoff between financial and macroeconomic stability associated with a variation of either the capital requirement or the smoothing interest rate parameter. Finally, our results reinforce the cautionary finding of other studies regarding how output can be ravaged by a low inflation targeting.