The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests

This study examines the random walk hypothesis for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets for both A and B shares, using daily data over the period 1992–2007. The hypothesis is tested with new multiple variance ratio tests – Whang-Kim subsampling and Kim's wild bootstrap tests – as well as the conventional multiple Chow-Denning test. We find that Class B shares for Chinese stock exchanges do not follow the random walk hypothesis, and therefore are significantly inefficient. The Class A shares seem more efficient.     

Contracting on the Stock Price and Forward-Looking Performance Measures

Abstract

We examine the use of earnings, forward-looking performance measures and stock prices in managerial compensation. When the firm's owner and its manager have identical time preferences, the stock price is not useful for motivating the manager, as it is a noisy aggregation of a forward-looking measure and future earnings. In contrast, when the owner and the manager have conflicting time preferences, the noisy stock price is useful for contracting. If the manager has no access to banking and cannot trade the firm's shares, the timeliness of the stock price dominates the extra risk imposed by its noise. At the same time, forward-looking performance measures (such as customer satisfaction) can induce a desirable allocation of management effort between the short term and long term more efficiently than the stock price can. Forward-looking performance measures and the stock price are thus not direct substitutes in rewarding farsighted effort.     

Prevention incentives in long‐term insurance contracts

Long‐term insurance contracts are widespread, particularly in public health and the labor market. Such contracts typically involve monthly or annual premia which are related to the insured's risk profile. A given profile may change, based on observed outcomes which depend on the insured's prevention efforts. The aim of this paper is to analyze the latter relationship. In a two‐period optimal insurance contract in which the insured's risk profile is partly governed by her effort on prevention, we find that both the insured's risk aversion and prudence play a crucial role. If absolute prudence is greater than twice absolute risk aversion, moral hazard justifies setting a higher premium in the first period but also greater premium discrimination in the second period. This result provides insights on the trade‐offs between long‐term insurance and the incentives arising from risk classification, as well as between inter‐ and intragenerational insurance.     

自媒体帮助控股股东在定向增发中获利了吗？

考察了上市公司控股股东如何利用自媒体信息披露在定向增发融资中调节股价的变化,从而获取额外收益的过程。研究发现：控股股东为使定向增发融资顺利进行,倾向于在定向增发准备期频繁发布自媒体信息,以抬高股价吸引外部投资者关注,并且当发行对象不包括控股股东时,通过发布自媒体信息来抬高股价的行为会更加显著;而在定增新股定价期间,定向增发对象包括控股股东的上市公司却会显著减少自媒体信息发文数量,以压低股票价格,帮助控股股东以较低对价购入定增股票。进一步分析发现：上市公司中机构投资者持股对控股股东定价期间压低股价的行为具有显著抑制作用。从自媒体信息披露这一崭新视角切入,证实了我国上市公司控股股东在定向增发过程中既有通过自媒体信息披露使定向增发吸引关注、满足融资需求的动机,又有利用自媒体信息披露降低控股股东参与定向增发的成本、对自身进行利益输送的动机;而机构投资者能够有效监督这一过程中大股东的利己行为。研究结论为加强对上市公司在定向增发中信息披露的监管,保护中小投资者利益提供了有益的启示。     

Licensing agreements as signals of innovation: When do they impact market value?

This paper explains the performance outcomes of markets for technology. It examines whether, and in what context, licensing agreements function as signals of innovativeness that influence investors' evaluation of public companies and if they are consistent ex post the announcement. Joining the literature on markets for technology and signalling theory, it distinguishes the outcomes related to the expectation and the confirmation of the signal, while investigating the context in terms of a company's analyst coverage. This distinction is addressed based on an empirical strategy that draws on a sample of 99 companies (2006–2012) and relates the investing community's reaction to both abnormal stock market returns in the day of the announcement and to Tobin's q one year after. The results show neither immediate nor ex post effects for outward agreements, and negative immediate and ex post effects for inward agreements, which are muted for companies with extensive analyst coverage. They thus suggest that inward licenses are relevant negative signals and that the value of signals is maintained across time horizons. Our theory development introduces analyst coverage as a contingency under which licensing agreements represent a weaker signal. Our research thus warns managers against publicly announcing their licensing strategies.     

The impact of investor structure on stock price crash sensitivity: Evidence from China's stock market

Stock price crash sensitivity refers to the conditional probability of a stock crash when the market collapses. It focuses on individual stocks' sensitivity to the market crash and can affect stock pricing significantly. Although the crash sensitivity of China's stock market is very high as a whole (Weigert, 2016), different individual stocks show varying degrees of crash sensitivity. This paper, adopting the perspective of institutional investors, explores the reasons for the difference in crash sensitivity in China's stock market, and finds that: First, institutional investors' shareholdings is positively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. However, after dividing institutional investors into professional (represented by financial institutions) and non-professional institutional investors (represented by general legal persons), we find that only professional institutional investors' shareholdings is negatively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. Second, the impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is influenced by stock liquidity and media sentiment: when the stock liquidity of listed companies is good or the media sentiment is strong, the negative impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is accordingly high. This paper, by highlighting the investor structure, attempts a pioneering exploration of the influencing factors of the difference in stock price crash sensitivity in China. Our empirical results enrich research on stock price crash sensitivity and the heterogeneity of institutional investors. They can also serve to guide regulatory authorities' development of institutional investors and efforts to maintain market stability.     

中国城市土地市场存在“赢者诅咒”吗？

借鉴相关研究成果,构建一个综合性的时间窗口分析模型,利用我国境内房地产上市公司在20个城市购置的205宗土地作为样本,设置前向与后向共八个事件窗口,定量考察土地市场价格信号对股票市场的影响。实证结果表明：土地市场与股票市场是两个高度关联的市场,两个市场之间存在信号传递作用,短期内具有正向冲击效应,地价信号在土地出让后能够在短期内影响股票收益率,形成对股票价格的短期冲击效应;土地出让价格信号对股票市场的影响具有时间上的不对称性,地价信号对于股票收益率的影响主要发生在土地成交之后,股票市场对于土地竞拍以前的信息没有明显响应;土地市场所发现的价格信号是关联市场价格波动的信号源,改变竞价人的预期是市场稳定的关键。     

The Stock Market Reaction to the Hiring of Management Consultants: A Signalling Theory Approach

Drawing from signalling theory, this study examines how the stock market reacts to the public announcement of the hiring of management consultants and whether it differentially values clients on the basis of their financial profitability and the brand‐name of the engaged consultant. An event study analysis of 118 client firms that publicly announced the hiring of management consulting firms finds that the stock market, on average, responded positively and significantly to the engagement news. Regression analysis further reveals that the stock market reaction tended to be the highest for client firms that had the highest profitability levels. In addition, the stock market reaction to the hiring announcement was not related to the consultant's brand‐name reputation; clients engaging the most reputable consultants (e.g. McKinsey & Company, Bain, Boston Consulting Group, Booz‐Allen Hamilton) did not realize any different market response than those clients that employed the other consultants. Overall, most client firms that publicly announced the hiring of management consultants experienced a rise in their market value and those that had the highest financial profitability realized the highest increase. Further, the findings imply that there may be boundaries to reputational spillover benefits in partnering relationships.     

Managerial quality,financial structure and signalling: A test of pricing efficiency in the UK equity securities market

This paper seeks to ascertain if stock market pricing procedures are operationally efficient in setting prices so as to discriminate against poor-quality management. Signalling theory suggests management's leverage decision as the means by which managerial quality can be identified. Departures from average leverage, given firm characteristics, are interpreted as indicating managerial quality. Ordinary least-squares regression analysis is used to identify these departures, and to test if shareholders' yields are responsive to them. The results are not always statistically significant, but do provide some support for the signalling hypothesis and for the efficiency of UK security pricing.     

Analysis of the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s stock market based on complex networks

This paper analyzes the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 on China's stock market by using the complex network methods. Firstly, we divide the Sino-US trade friction incident in 2018 into four research periods. Based on the GARCH-BEKK model and the Planar Maximum Filter Graph (PMFG) algorithm, the volatility spillover network between China's stock market sectors and the stock price correlation network of China's stock market corresponding to the above four research periods are constructed. Next, from the perspective of sectors in stock market, we use various network centrality indicators to build a systematic importance comprehensive evaluation index of industry sectors in the stock market through the principal component analysis method, to explore the impact of the Sino-US trade friction incident on the risk spillover effects of sectors in China's stock market. From the perspective of the overall stock market, we analyze the impact of Sino-US trade friction incident on the overall stability of the stock market through calculating the network topology indicators and conducting simulation experiments. Finally, the main factors affecting the stability mechanism of China's stock market are studied through the probit model. The results show that: (1) The risk spillover effect of various sectors in China's stock market changes significantly in different periods of Sino-US trade friction, and there are obvious cyclical rotation effects among various sectors (2) When some weighted stocks in the stock market abnormally fluctuate or suffer targeted shocks, the China's stock market's ability to maintain stability is weak, and the Sino-US trade friction will reduce the stability of China's stock market, and the higher the intensity of trade friction incident is, the more obvious the impact of the incident is. (3) The important factors that affect the abnormal fluctuations in China's stock market include four types of indicators: the stock market network structure, the fluctuation of important international stock indexes, the fluctuation of commodity prices in the international market, and the domestic macroeconomic indicators. This study provides a reference for China's financial regulatory authorities to conduct macro-prudential management, control systemic risks, and maintain the stability of financial market.     

Managerial hedging ability and firm risk

Modern portfolio theory suggests that undiversified executives would choose to diversify their significant holdings of their firm??s stock if the opportunity was available. Recent work suggests that managerial hedging is more prevalent than in years past as more innovative hedging instruments have become available to executives. Typically, unrestricted shares are used in these hedging transactions whereas restricted shares are not. In this paper, I examine whether a CEO??s composition of firm stockholdings between restricted and unrestricted shares impacts the level of risk undertaken by the firm. I document a negative and statistically significant relationship between firm risk and the proportion of CEO total shareholdings that are unrestricted and this negative relationship holds for alternative measures of firm risk. This result supports the notion that the composition of a CEO??s portfolio of firm stock between restricted and unrestricted shares is a significant determinant of firm risk.     

Ownership structure and corporate liquidity policy

This study analyzes the relationship between corporate liquidity (i.e. the fraction of assets invested in cash and marketable securities) and managerial ownership in the firm's stock. We postulate a negative relationship between excess liquidity and managerial stock ownership as the managers' interests shift from protecting the value of their human capital to maximizing the value of their stockholdings. This managerial behavior is constrained by the disciplining forces of the firm's product market structure and the market for corporate control. While the tests fail to reveal any significant impact of managerial stock ownership, they show that firm liquidity is positively related to the firm's ability to earn economic rents.     

CAPM模型对上证钢铁板块的实证研究

根据CAPM模型的原理,本文就上海股票市场钢铁板块的全部20只股票的系统性风险以及股权分置改革对其系统性风险的影响进行了实证分析。发现了许多我国股市发展中的存在的许多问题,说明近年来中国股市虽有较快发展,但仍然是一个不成熟的股市。     

The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts

The recent theoretical asset allocation literature has derived optimal dynamic investment strategies in various advanced models of asset returns. But how sensitive is investor welfare to deviations from the theoretically optimal strategy? Will unsophisticated investors do almost as well as sophisticated investors? This paper develops a general theoretical framework for answering such questions and applies it to three specific models of interest rate risk, stochastic stock volatility, and mean reversion and growth/value tilts of stock portfolios. Among other things, we find that growth/value tilts are highly valuable, but the hedging of time-varying stock risk premia is less important.     

基金股票仓位与A股市场走势相关性研究

在划分股市牛熊周期的基础上,采用VECM模型和VAR方法对基金股票仓位变动与股票市场走势之间关系进行研究,结果表明基金股票仓位与股票市场收益率二者之间的关系存在着显著性和非稳定性,即基金作为主要机构投资者对股票市场的走势具有重要影响作用,而在股市的各个不同阶段,基金持仓比例的波动与A股指数收益率二者之间的关系各不相同。     

Employees' entrepreneurial contributions to firms in Russia, 1995–2004

This article examines how employee self‐reported entrepreneurial contributions evolved in firms operating in Russia in 1995–2004 and whether changes can be explained by Akerlof's theory of implicit gift exchange in labour contracts. We find that these contributions were indeed influenced by wage premia and shifting work norms, declining by about a half during the period and with a particularly marked fall in contributions by manual workers. The trend was found among foreign‐owned, private Russian‐owned and state‐owned companies. Akerlof's model therefore helps explain Russian workers' changing behaviour.     

The Valuation Differential between Class A and B Shares: Country Risk in the Chinese Stock Market

The Chinese stock market has been characterized by a strict segmentation between domestic and foreign investors, with listed companies issuing Class A shares to domestic, and Class B shares to foreign, investors, respectively. Entitled to the same rights and obligations, however, the two classes of shares are traded at significantly different prices. The valuation differential is attributable to the different sets of investment opportunities available to domestic versus foreign investors and their risk tolerance. Foreign investors would require a higher rate of return to adjust for the country‐specific risk related to the Chinese stock market. The country risk of China can be decomposed into political risk, exchange rate risk, interest rate risk and market risk. Empirical tests provide strong evidence to support the decomposition model, showing the political risk of China as an important component.     

扭亏公司盈余管理和公司治理关系的实证研究

本文选择了2000-2002年158家扭亏公司作为样本,建立了多元回归模型,实证了扭亏公司盈余管理和公司治理的关系。发现扭亏公司的盈余管理程度与第一大股东和高管人员的持股比例正相关,与独立董事和内部人董事在董事会成员中所占的比例正相关,与集团公司控股正相关。政策建议为:国有股减持,实行全流通;改变独立董事聘任方式;实行累积投票制度;将集团控股公司和资产规模小的扭亏公司作为监管重点。     

Gold shares or gold bullion—which is the better investment?

This paper examines, from the standpoint of the US investor, the illative merits of an investment in gold bullion vis-à-vis South African gold shares. Markowitz portfolio-selection techniques are used to examine the relative performance of gold bullion and SA gold shares quoted on the New York stock exchange over the period 1978 to 1983. It concludes that, on average, of the period examined gold shares have proved to be significantly better investments than gold bullion and considers possible reasons for this.     

The Alternative of Private Regulation: The London Stock Exchange's Alternative Investment Market as a Model

Most people assume that markets require a strong set of government rules and regulations to eliminate problems associated with transparency and fraud. Commonly overlooked is the fact that stock exchanges did, and to a large extent still do, provide a set of private rules and regulations. One modern stock exchange that relies heavily on private rather than government regulation is the London Stock Exchange's Alternative Investment Market (AIM). Founded in 1995, AIM is an exchange regulated market in which private regulators, called Nominated Advisors or Nomads, oversee individual firms and decide whether they can list their shares. This system of private regulation reduces regulatory barriers and has attracted many new firms. But rather than being ‘a race to the bottom’ in which anything goes, the private regulators work to put their stamp of approval only on firms that warrant trading. The market has attracted a lot of investment, and the survival rate of IPOs is in line with that of other more regulated markets.