Channels of international risk-sharing: capital gains versus income flows

Global financial integration unlocks a huge potential for international risk sharing. We examine the degree to which international equity holdings act as a risk sharing device in industrial and emerging economies. We split equity returns into investment income (dividend distribution) and capital gains to investigate which of the two channels delivers the largest potential for risk sharing. Our evidence suggests that net capital gains are a more potent channel of risk sharing. They behave in a countercyclical way, that is they tend to be positive (negative) when the domestic economy is growing more slowly (rapidly) than the rest of the world. Countries with more countercyclical net capital gains experience improved consumption risk sharing. The empirical analysis furthermore suggests that these risk sharing properties of net capital gains have increased through time, in particular in the 1990s and early-2000s, on the back of a declining equity home bias and financial market deepening.     

The global economic consequences of the Uruguay Round

This paper examines the provisions of the recently completed Uruguay Round and evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of the Round on major countries and regions of the world. The implications of the Uruguay Round are measured using the G-cubed multicountry model. This model captures macroeconomic and sectoral linkages within the global economy. This study differs from other studies in that it considers the dynamic adjustment path, the impact of expectations formation, and the sectoral as well as macroeconomic consequences of the Round. The results are compared with other studies of the Uruguay Round. Ignoring major changes in productivity induced by the Round, it is found that the gains to the world economy are likely to be around $200 billion (1990) per year by the year 2000. The distribution of the gains across regions from the Round differ from other studies because of the adjustment of international capital flows. Private capital flows to regions that undertake the most extensive liberalization initially worsen their trade positions. In regions that liberalize less and experience a capital outflow, the production gains tends to be less than conventional studies find. The adjustment of private capital has important implications for exchange rates, and therefore for the adjustment of the international trading system over the decade of the implementation of the Round.     

Environmental growth convergence among Chinese regions

Since the end of the 20th century, numerous studies have analyzed Chinese economic development to gauge whether China's rapid growth is sustainable. Most of these studies focused on assessing total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese mainland provinces but suffered from methodological weaknesses by assuming constant returns to scale (CRS) for the production frontier and/or incorrectly modeling variables returns to scale (VRS) technology taking into account bad output such as carbon dioxide emissions. Our paper offers a right non-parametric programming framework based on weak disposability and VRS assumptions to estimate environmental growth convergence among Chinese regions characterized by size heterogeneity. We explicitly separate regional efficiency gaps into two components: The first studies the technical catching-up process on each one (technical effect), and the second reveals convergence or divergence in the combinations of input and output among regions (structural effect). Moreover, carbon shadow price levels for provinces can be derived through the dual version of our activity analysis framework. Our empirical work focuses on 30 Chinese regions from 1997 to 2010. The results emphasize that environmental growth convergence among regions has mainly relied on the structural effect. We find that the structural effect largely depends on the pollution cost convergence and not on the evolution of the relative prices of capital or labor. The carbon shadow price is increasing at an annual rate of 2.5% and was evaluated around 864 yuan per ton in 2010 in China while regional estimates show significant disparities at the beginning of the period.     

Managing Insurance Company Financial Statements to Meet Regulatory and Tax Reporting Goals*

This study investigates the extent to which property-casualty insurers select levels of loss reserves, net capital gains, and net stock transactions to meet solvency and tax reporting goals. Insurer solvency is reflected in financial measures known as IRIS (Insurance Regulatory Information System) ratios. IRIS ratios are generally enhanced by underestimating loss reserves, accelerating the realization of capital gains, postponing the realization of capital losses, issuing stock, and cutting dividends. Taxable income is reduced by reporting higher reserves and lower net capital gains on investments. We use simultaneous equations to model the three discretionary choices individually, while controlling for potential tradeoffs among the decisions. During the sample period of the study (1990-95), there is a shift in the regulatory environment that we argue tends to reduce incentives to meet IRIS goals. Specifically, risk-based capital (RBC) requirements were adopted in 1994. Although IRIS ratios continued to be used for solvency screening, their effect is expected to be diluted in the post-RBC period. Our results provide qualified support for this claim. Evidence of the phenomenon is stronger when the choice variables are net capital gains and stock transactions, and weaker when loss reserves are considered. Two of the three discretionary choices affect taxable income: loss reserves and capital gains. We find that tax incentives are significantly associated with the loss reserve estimate throughout the sample period. In contrast, our results are only weakly consistent with the view that capital gains are timed to achieve tax relief.     

Capital Flight Repatriation: Investigation of its Potential Gains for Sub‐Saharan African Countries*

Abstract: Despite the substantial recent increase in capital flows to sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), the sub‐continent remains largely marginalized in financial globalization and chronically dependent on official development aid. The current debate on resource mobilization for development financing in Africa has overlooked the problem of capital flight, which constitutes an important untapped source of funds. This paper argues that repatriation of flight capital deserves more attention on economic as well as moral grounds. On the moral side, the argument is that a large proportion of the capital flight legitimately belongs to the African people and therefore must be restituted to the legitimate claimants. The economic argument is that repatriation of flight capital will contribute to propelling the sub‐continent on a higher sustainable growth path while preserving its financial stability and independence and without mortgaging the welfare of its future generations through external borrowing. The anticipated gains from capital repatriation are large. In particular, this paper estimates that if only a quarter of the stock of capital flight was repatriated to SSA, the sub‐continent would go from trailing to leading other developing regions in terms of domestic investment. The paper proposes some strategies for inducing capital flight repatriation, but cautions that the success of this program is contingent on a strong political will on the part of African and Western governments and effective coordination and cooperation at the global level.     

Converging on the learning curve: Theory and application to German regional data

Converging on the Learning Curve: Theory and Application to German Regional Data. — Studies finding convergence between regions are usually based on the assumptions of decreasing returns to overall capital and ubiquitous exogenous technical progress. In contrast, we derive convergence from a model with endogenous knowledge creation and knowledge spillovers which interact with the regional formation of human capital. The model allows for conditional convergence due to interregional knowledge dissemination which is an important determinant of the regional learning curve. In empirical estimates for 327 German regions, it is found that the characteristics of the knowledge and the human capital sectors have largely the impacts on convergence which are predicted by the model.     

Does the Domestic Value Added Induced by China＇s Exports Really Belong to China？

Since 2001, the exports of foreign‐invested enterprises (FIEs) have accounted for more than 50 percent of China's total exports. As foreign capital occupies a high proportion of the total capital of FIEs, most FIEs' capital gains are foreign factor income. Although these gains are calculated as a part of China's GDP, they do not belong to China's national income. To determine the real contribution of exports to China's welfare, the present paper analyses the impact of exports on China's national income using a non‐competitive input–output model capturing processing trade. The results show that every US$1000 of China's exports generates US$506.8 of national income. The real contribution of exports to China's welfare is much smaller than what we expected. This suggests that China should endeavor to improve the gains from international markets or find another engine to maintain its economic growth.     

New Belgian Stock Market Returns: 1832–1914

The limited availability of high quality and computer readable data seriously impedes research in history and finance. We introduce a new monthly return series for Belgian owned equity based on Brussels Stock Market data for the period 1832–1914 as an improvement to the popular Drappier index. Over this period, our dataset includes 446,374 prices, 23,976 dividends, 371 stock and reverse splits (or other capital operations) on 2037 stocks of 1387 (foreign and Belgian) companies. Our dataset includes all shares and bonds but also high-quality information on prices, dividends, shares outstanding and market capitalization. In addition, company, country and sector information is available. We construct value weighted, price weighted and equally weighted indices as well as dividend yields. We find three important results. First, total nominal returns hover between 3.29% and 5.35% per annum, depending on how individual stocks are aggregated into the index. Second, dividend income constitutes the major part of total return and dividend distributions have a clear seasonal pattern. Third, the results highlight several drawbacks of the Drappier indices, especially an upward bias in expected equity performance.     

Effect of exchange rate return on volatility spill-over across trading regions

This paper examines the effect of realized exchange rate returns on the volatility spill-over between the euro–US dollar and US dollar–yen currency pairs across the five trading regions: Asia, Asia–Europe overlap, Europe, Europe–America overlap and America. Modelling the interaction between returns and volatility in an autoregressive five-equation system, we find evidence that depreciation of the US dollar against the yen has a greater impact on the US dollar–yen volatility spill-over than appreciation in the subprime crisis period. Appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar against the euro does not appear to have an asymmetric effect on the euro–US dollar volatility spill-over. Our results support the notion that the yen may have been preferred to the euro as a ‘safe-haven’ currency relative to the US dollar during the subprime crisis period.     

The Structural Pension Reform in Chile: Effects, Comparisons with Other Latin American Reforms, and Lessons

Chile pioneered a structural reform in Latin America that privatizedits public pension system and influenced similar reforms inanother nine countries. Twenty-five years later, this articleevaluates the macroeconomic, microeconomic, and social effectsof this reform in Chile and the other countries in the region,and extracts lessons from those experiences. Fiscal costs ofthe reform have been high and prolonged, exceeded capital accumulation,and had a negative impact on national savings, but Chile's reformhas contributed to the development of capital markets; employer'scontributions were eliminated or reduced in half of the countriesand the worker's share in the total contribution averages 65per cent; competition is afflicted by a small number of administratorsand a high level of concentration; administrative costs arehigh and stagnant; capital returns are fair but declining; portfoliodiversification has been achieved only in Chile and Peru; labour-forcecoverage has declined in all ten countries, and gender and incomeinequalities have expanded. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: aarenas{at}dipres.gob.cl; cmesa{at}usa.net     

Factor Use and Productivity Change in the Alcoholic Beverage Industries

Technology structure and change in the beer, wine, and spirits industries are examined here in a dual cost framework. Productivity growth in these industries has been strong and uninterrupted for the past four decades, outstripping that in the general food sector. Scale economies continue to be significant in brewing and distilling but are weak to nonexistent in winemaking. Substitution between raw materials and value-adding (labor and capital) inputs is high, implying that any reversal in factor price trends likely will bring substantial changes to production processes. Despite recent rapid increases in relative capital prices, technical change has shifted capital-material expansion paths toward capital, suggesting that new equipment is designed for its ability to save on raw material and packaging cost.     

国际服务外包:一个发展中国家的模型

本文从2×2专用要素模型的角度,以作为发包方的发展中国家为对象,研究了发展中国家从事国际服务外包活动的福利效应和再分配效应。结果表明,当不存在固定技术成本时,服务外包在提高整体福利的同时,降低了资本要素的收入;而当存在固定的技术成本时,服务外包的福利效应不确定,但劳动要素收入依然提高。在此基础之上,本文探讨了服务外包与发展中国家产业结构升级之间的关系。     

Sources of spatial welfare disparities in Indonesia: Household endowments or returns?

This article investigates (i) the extent to which the differences in the standard of living among districts in Indonesia are due to differences in the marginal welfare gains (returns) associated with household mobile endowments or differences in household endowments themselves; and (ii) whether the current allocation of fiscal expenditures by the central authorities is related to the main determinants of the spatial disparities in welfare among districts. Differences in the returns to household mobile characteristics are found to be the primary explanation of the welfare differences. The allocation of fiscal transfers to districts is found to be based on “needs” defined as low returns to household mobile endowments. This also suggests that the design of the fiscal transfer system is consistent with promoting the opportunities for welfare across districts as opposed to equalizing the level of welfare itself. Finally, the marginal welfare gains of most household mobile endowments are found to be higher in districts with more roads.     

Maintenance expenditures and indeterminacy under increasing returns to scale

This paper develops a one-sector real business cycle model in which competitive firms allocate resources for the production of goods, investment in new capital and maintenance of existing capital. Firms also choose the utilization rate of existing capital. A higher utilization rate leads to faster capital depreciation, and an increase in maintenance activity has the opposite effect. We show that as the equilibrium ratio of maintenance expenditures to GDP rises, the required degree of increasing returns for local indeterminacy declines over a wide range of parameter combinations. When the model is calibrated to match empirical evidence on the relative size of maintenance and repair activity, we find that local indeterminacy (and belief-driven fluctuations) can occur with a mild and empirically-plausible degree of increasing returns: approximately 1.08.     

The increasing returns to scale CES production function and the law of diminishing marginal returns

This article analyzes the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function when there are increasing returns to scale and the elasticity of substitution exceeds 1, which I refer to as the explosive case of the CES. For this explosive case of the CES, the article demonstrates a new and surprising result: marginal and average products of labor and capital approach infinity as either labor or capital approach infinity. Obviously, in this explosive case of the CES, the law of diminishing marginal returns is eventually violated in a dramatic way. Some implications of this result for growth theory are discussed. The article concludes by deriving, for this explosive case of the CES, lower and upper bounds for the capital labor ratio which are consistent with the law of diminishing marginal returns.     

Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in the Midwest in the Late Nineteenth Century

It is well known that early settlers on the frontier reaped the benefits of development as population grew, especially through capital gains on real estate. But population turnover—so pervasive in the rural north in the nineteenth century as well as in contemporary settlement economies—also afforded early settlers an advantage: they knew local soil and market conditions better than those who settled later. Such location-specific human capital augmented the incomes, and therefore the wealth, of early settlers. Early settlers in Missouri had higher rates of wealth accumulation than later arrivals, and the contribution of location-specific human capital was at least equal to the contribution of capital gains.     

Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America

Consequences of free-trade agreements (FTAs) among the ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 countries are explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of intra- and extra-regional effects on welfare, trade and output are offered. When both trade facilitation and endogenously determined productivity are included in the FTA scenarios, Singapore, other ASEAN countries and China would be able to realize relatively large welfare gains, while the welfare effects on the EU and North America are negligible. The trade and output effects on the latter two regions are also relatively small, with the notable exception of crops, other than rice, in North America.     

International capital mobility: regional versus global perspective

This paper examines the role of regional versus global savings in financing domestic investment to shed light on the role of financial globalization and regionalism in capital markets. Regression results based on six regions with 141 countries reveal that although the role of foreign (global or regional) saving has increased over time, there are regional differences: domestic saving is the major source of investment financing in North America with an increasing role of regional and global savings over time, while regional saving is the main source in Europe. Global saving has been the main source of investment financing in other regions where domestic and regional financial markets are not well developed. However, the role of regional saving has significantly increased in recent years in the Asia-Pacific and in Latin America. Regionalism such as financial and monetary cooperation is likely to have increased the role of regional saving.     

Does Fair Value Accounting Contribute to Systemic Risk in the Banking Industry?

I investigate whether fair value accounting can contribute to the banking industry's systemic risk. I focus on the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standard No. 115 (SFAS No. 115), which required available‐for‐sale (AFS) securities to be recognized at fair value with unrealized gains and losses included in equity through accumulated other comprehensive income. SFAS No. 115 increased banks' regulatory risk because, at the time, calculation of regulatory capital closely conformed with GAAP equity. I find that systemic risk increased following the adoption of SFAS No. 115. Furthermore, following a subsequent regulatory amendment—which excluded unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities from regulatory capital but did not change their GAAP treatment—systemic risk decreased. Taken together, the evidence suggests that fair value accounting has the potential to increase systemic risk through the explicit inclusion of volatile fair value estimates in regulatory bank capital adequacy assessments. I do not, however, find evidence of fair value accounting impacting systemic risk in its information role; that is, by providing information to a bank's external stakeholders about its financial position and performance. I also show that higher fair value volatility of investment securities, lower bank capital, and larger AFS security holdings increase banks' marginal contribution to systemic risk. My findings should interest regulators and policymakers, as recent regulatory changes in light of Basel III recommendations require unrealized gains and losses on AFS securities to be included in regulatory capital for advanced approaches banks.     

Historical returns and security market development, 1872–1925

Annual holding returns are reported for a broad range of the assets available to investors in the security market between 1872 and 1925. A generally favorable picture of asset performance is revealed when these returns are compared to those on similar investments in the modern era. Two changes in the patterns of returns around 1900 occurred—a decline in inflation adjusted debt returns and an increase in the volatility of stock returns (especially industrial stock). The structure of asset returns after 1900 was distinctly modern and has persisted to the present. The emergence of the modern structure of returns is linked to institutional changes in the security market between 1890 and World War I, and to the process of industrial capital formation.