What India Can Learn from China and Vice Versa

A partial convergence of the Indian and Chinese growth models is likely. Judging from China's experience, sustaining India's impressive economic performance of recent years will require a significant further opening of its economy (externally and internally), higher savings and investments, especially in physical infrastructure and social services, and stronger labor absorption in the modern sectors. The base of India's current economic boom - software, IT-related services and high-end manufacturing - is narrow compared to China's. Poor performance in agriculture is responsible for still significant poverty in many parts of rural India. Bilateral India-China ties, including trade and investment, are increasing rapidly and could help to bring about the structural economic changes India needs. Through its exports to China, India is becoming linked to global supply chains centered on China. The notion that India-China relations are, or are bound to become, fundamentally antagonistic, held by many in the USA, is mistaken and potentially dangerous.     

A development perspective on the role and function of black colleges of education in South Africa

The training of black teachers in South Africa has greatly expanded in recent decades. The expansion resulted from a strong demand for teachers in black schools and from an even stronger and greatly unrealistic demand for places in teacher training colleges. The demand for teachers developed as a result of growing enrolment and an attempt to lower the pupil‐teacher ratios. The demand for places in teacher training colleges in turn developed only partly as a result of the demand for teachers. To a very large extent it developed also as a response to a set of social, economic and political conditions which prevailed in South Africa during the apartheid era. These conditions have influenced not only the numbers of high school graduates seeking training as teachers and the actual numbers of teachers trained, but also the quality and direction of training delivered over the years. The quality of training has been generally poor, and the choice of levels as well as teaching subjects by trainee‐teachers has not been in line with the needs of the schools. To address these three aspects of teacher training — the quantity of teachers trained, the direction in which they are trained, and the quality of their training — it will be necessary to reform the existing system.     

The multilevel analysis of students’ achievement: Evidence from Morocco

This paper, using multi‐level modelling, sought to highlight student‐level and school‐level characteristics that differentiate the academic performance in mathematics from a sample of 6080 Moroccan secondary students who participated in the 2011 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) test. The results indicated little evidence to support the Heyneman–Loxley effect, as they showed that individual and family characteristics were the strongest determinants of achievement compared to the schools’ factors. Students scored higher when they were boys, were younger, were more self‐confident, were more ambitious, and felt secure in school. They also scored higher when they came from families with a higher socioeconomic status, particularly when their parents were able to ensure the availability of learning resources, and were of a higher level of education. Finally, schools were matter for their pupil achievement mainly through the location channel, as urban pupils outperformed rural ones. However, the other school characteristics, including those related to teachers, played a negative, or at best neutral, role in pupil outcomes. These findings have important public policy implications. Redesigning education policy towards improving the school's environment and fostering inclusivity would be needed to enhance learning performance of Moroccan students.     

Stimulating Growth and Investment in Africa: From Macro to Micro Reforms

Abstract: How do we stimulate investment and growth in Africa? This paper focuses on low‐income countries that are ‘good performers’ and not especially endowed with natural resources. Many of these countries have undertaken a set of economic reforms, and have recorded growth rates in per capita GDP of around 5 percent over the past 10 years. But some constraints to growth persist. We look at three things — how business environments create ‘external costs’ for firms and inhibit performance, how investors perceive the constraints to doing business, and the role of political economy factors especially in those countries with lagging indigenous business sectors. Our analysis of investment climate and other data leads us to several recommendations for governments, donors and the private sector itself, including the following: deepen macro reforms; build a strong, unified business forum; create incentives for more responsive governments; and improve risk mitigation and broaden this to domestic investors.     

Immigration and the path dependence of education: the case of German‐speakers in São Paulo,Brazil (1840–1920)

This article studies the path dependence of human capital accumulation in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. It focuses on the impacts of German‐speaking immigrants on education through three channels: their share of the population in the nineteenth century, their on‐the‐job skills, and the schools they founded. Using a new dataset based on almanacs from 1873 and 1888, these effects are evaluated for the nineteenth, early twentieth, and early twenty‐first centuries. The article shows that the institutionalized demand for education of these immigrants, reflected by the establishment of schools, was their main contribution to the accumulation of human capital. The effect of German schools on educational levels required a period to mature and dissipated over time. Nevertheless, its influence was substantial at the beginning of the twentieth century, affecting enrolment levels in private and state schools, a result that suggests the existence of spillover and contagion effects. Moreover, current indicators for stocks and flows of human capital in São Paulo are strongly associated with their historical levels. At the same time, this path dependence is conditional on the type of school: while a positive persistence is found for the private system throughout the twentieth century, convergence occurred in state schools.     

Measles and the spatio‐temporal structure of modern Japan1

This article explores the spatio‐temporal structure of infectious diseases in modern Japan, using measles mortality data from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Three aspects of the epidemiology of measles are discussed: the synchronization of epidemic waves, seasonality, and age at infection. These epidemiological analyses are connected to, respectively, regional integration, governmental policy on primary school education, and the number of young children in families. In addition, based on the fact that measles did not become endemic in early modern Edo (Tokyo), this article corrects epidemiologists' misunderstanding about the threshold of endemicity and argues that the critical population size varied substantially according to the societal factors of a given community. In so doing, this article suggests that historians can use measles data as a new biometric index for studying human health and socio‐economic conditions in societies of the past.     

The Market‐Promoting and Market‐Preserving Role of Social Trust in Reforms of Policies and Institutions

Social trust has been identified as a catalyst for reforms. We take the literature further in two ways. First, we analyze mechanisms through which social trust enables liberalizing reforms—by overcoming obstacles in the political process (stemming from ideology, ideological fractionalization, coalition government, minority government, and legislature‐seat instability). Second, we define reforms as distinct changes in the quality of the legal institutions and in the scope of regulation and separate reforms that increase economic freedom in these two areas from reforms that decrease it. We study separately how social trust, interacted with the different types of political hindrances, affects the probability of reforms. We find a dual role of social trust in the political process—facilitating liberalizing reforms and making deliberalizing ones more difficult. This suggests that trust does not make agreement on any reform more probable—the content of the reform is crucial.     

市场一体化理论基础、国际经验与长三角区域发展困境与策略

促进市场一体化进程,加快构建商品和要素无障碍流动、公平竞争的现代经济体系,已成为长三角区域市场经济发展中的重大现实问题。为此,本文围绕市场一体化的内涵与理论基础、国外典型经验借鉴、长三角地区市场一体化发展的困境与策略展开讨论。研究结果表明,长三角地区市场一体化发展存在经济发展不平衡、交易市场同质化竞争现象明显、行政技术壁垒阻碍一体化进程、缺乏完善的协调体制机制、对外开放水平不平衡等问题。为此,本文提出要缩小经济差距、优化产业结构、打破壁垒、设立服务机构、提高对外开放程度等助推市场一体化发展的策略。     

Returns to private and public education in Bangladesh and Pakistan: A comparative analysis

This paper documents wage differentials between private and public school graduates in Bangladesh and Pakistan. While evidence in support of a wage advantage of private school graduates in Bangladesh is lacking, Pakistani private school graduates are found to earn more than their public school counterparts. This finding has important implications for the current debate over the effectiveness of private schools in South Asia. To the extent the wage premium arises owing to education in private schools, our result suggests relative superiority of private schools in Pakistan and are consistent with extant studies that have assessed private school quality using test scores of students. The difference in the performance of private schools in the two countries, however, remains a puzzle. This difference, we conjecture, may be partly explained by the between-country differences in public policy towards private schools and, therefore, the regulatory regime facing these schools.     

London creditors and the fifteenth‐century depression

Evidence of debts owed to Londoners, and contested before the royal Court of Common Pleas, allows an examination of the role of London creditors in the English depression of the fifteenth century and a reassessment of its causes. In this article, four main issues are examined. What is the nature of the Court of Common Pleas evidence (section I)? What were the three main forms of credit offered by Londoners—unsecured cash loans, sales of goods on credit, and written instruments called bonds (section II)? What is yielded by decadal analysis of Londoners’ extension of credit in the fifteenth century—making direct comparisons with Nightingale's published Statute Merchant and Staple data (section III)? What defines, in modern economic terms, the claim of so‐called ‘monetarist’ historians that credit was actively withdrawn during the depression, and how is this verified by the actions of London creditors (section IV)? It is concluded that the records of the Court of Common Pleas provide the detailed evidence monetarist historians have previously lacked both to prove that Londoners actively withdrew credit during the fifteenth century and to demonstrate that they employed pure equilibrium credit rationing in order to do so.     

Building an alternative economic network? Consumer cooperation in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s†

There is growing interest in the ways in which, and the values according to which, economic activity is undertaken. For instance, mutual ownership has been identified as one means of helping to ‘redeem’ capitalism. This article engages with such issues by examining aspects of the behaviour of consumer cooperative societies in Scotland from the 1870s to the 1960s. It starts by discussing whether cooperatives represent a means of conceptualizing and undertaking economic activity that provides an alternative to the paradigm of investor‐led (neo)liberal capitalism. From this, and an outline history of consumer cooperatives in Scotland, it identifies two variables—dividend on purchases and funds for education—as proxies for the values underpinning cooperatives’ economic behaviour. Analysis of these variables indicates the existence of distinct cultures of cooperation, notably in the Glasgow and Edinburgh areas. The article concludes by offering two ‘lessons from history’ for those interested in alternative economic networks. The first is that cooperation can, and has, conceptualized and sustained an alternative to the dominant (neo)liberal economic paradigm. The second is that the scaling‐up of such voluntaristic economic thought and behaviour is unlikely to present a macro‐level challenge to it.     

关于安徽金融业发展的思考

金融服务业主要包括银行业、证券业和保险业，现代金融服务业发展的层次和水平直接影响着经济发展的速度和效率。近年来安徽金融业发展速度较快、质量较好，但也存在不足，如对发展金融业重要性认识不够，金融业规模不大、实力不强，金融结构不合理、比例明显失调，针对中小企业和“三农”的金融服务不足，风险投资业发展滞后。文章在此基础上提出了促进安徽金融服务业发展的建议。应树立金融强省的理念，建立多层次的现代金融体系，加强资本市场建设，加快保险业的发展，加大政策支持力度，加快金融开放和创新步伐。     

The future effect of e‐business on treasury and risk management systems and treasury management in South Africa

‘Internet’ and ‘e‐business’ are words that have become part of today's business world. Invariably we hear of the effect thereof on the way we used to do things, due to the shift in paradigm from command and control to a more open globalised, multi‐polar world. Traditional ways of doing business are fast becoming redundant, as they are not able to cater for the needs of a business in cyberspace. New technology has helped create new risks and more volatility in the financial environment due to the ease with which information is spread. To benefit from the many new developments that allow more efficient marketing, improved productivity, lower costs, better service, and better access to financial resources, a rethink or re‐engineering of the way we used to do things will be necessary. Doing business in cyberspace means getting involved in an environment where all rules have not yet emerged and where breach of security is a very real threat. E‐business has important implications for South Africa as an emerging economy, as it creates the possibility for better access to various financial resources and eventual increased economic activity. This will affect all sectors in the economy and may lead to generally improved business infrastructure for the country as whole and for individual businesses, local authorities and government treasury departments. This is especially important for South Africa as a developing country as it may lead to a stronger economy, which, in turn, will make an important contribution to more rapid alleviation of poverty and more rapid reform in the long run.     

Italy in the Renaissance: a leading economy in the European context, 1350–1550

A well‐known debate on the Renaissance economy was held in this journal in 1962–4 between Roberto S. Lopez and Harry Miskimin on one hand and Carlo M. Cipolla on the other. More than half a century later, this topic can be reconsidered in the light of much wider information on the late medieval/early modern Italian economy. Using data on population, urbanization, prices, wages, and GDP, this article outlines the macroeconomic trends in central and northern Italy in the age of the Renaissance (1350–1550). The frequent plagues during the early Renaissance—that is, between 1348 and 1450—decimated the population, probably causing more deaths than in other European countries. Hence resources per worker increased and labour productivity, incomes, and standards of living improved remarkably. A favourable economic environment thus seems to have been a pre‐condition for the Renaissance in culture, art, and politics and the spread of new kinds of consumer demand. From the middle of the fifteenth century, living standards gradually worsened and eventually reached the low levels that had prevailed prior to the Renaissance.     

The making of a liberal education: Political economy of the Austrian school reform, 1865 – 1880

The rise of mass schooling is an important contributor to modern economic growth. But its form, content, scale and manner of provision are all matters of public policy. The rise of modern schooling is frequently cast as a product of broadened suffrage and stronger political voice of the masses, which overcame the political opposition from old ruling elites. We investigate this hypothesis, using the case of a school reform undertaken in Imperial Austria in 1869. We show that large landowners were mildly in favor of school modernization, albeit less than urban and business interests. The strongest opposition came from the rural areas where the suffrage was in fact most numerous. The reform passed in spite of their opposition but, interestingly, post-reform developments suggest that passive resistance to it continued in the countryside in spite of the alleged benefits that education was billed to bring the masses.     

The rise and decline of European parliaments, 1188–17891

This article quantifies the activities of medieval and early modern parliaments. It traces the long‐term evolution of this European institution, and offers a first pass at analysing its impact on long‐term economic development. Starting in Spain in the twelfth century, parliaments gradually spread over the Latin west between 1200 and 1500. In the early modern period, parliaments declined in influence in southern and central Europe and further gained in importance in the Netherlands and Britain, resulting in an institutional ‘Little Divergence’ between 1500 and 1800. We discuss the background of this phenomenon in detail. Moreover, by analysing the effects of parliamentary activity on city growth we find that these differences in institutional development help to explain the economic divergence between north‐western and southern and central Europe.     

School district consolidation: Market concentration and the scale‐efficiency tradeoff

Consolidation is often proposed as a strategy for increasing school district quality without increasing educational funding. However, if consolidation reduces competition in the local school market and reduces efficiency, any savings from exploiting economies of scale may be lost to increased inefficiency. We use a stochastic cost function to investigate these effects for districts in Texas. We find important economies of scale, but we also find that increased market concentration leads to increased cost inefficiency. Finally, we illustrate the practical importance of these two potentially offsetting factors in a simulation that considers consolidating Texas school districts to county‐level districts. We find that failure to consider the effect on competition can lead to large overestimates of the benefits of consolidation.     

Measuring the Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on School Efficiency in Australia

This paper examines the productive efficiency of government schools in New South Wales (NSW) in Australia. The study uses a technical inefficiency effects model applied to a unique three-year panel dataset containing 1235 primary and 371 secondary schools in NSW. A stochastic frontier production function and an inefficiency effects function that control for school socioeconomic and environmental factors are estimated. The dataset contains information on various school inputs, school expenditures by major functional area, parental socioeconomic characteristics, student characteristics, and standardized test scores. We examine the degree to which school and non-school educational inputs influence student achievement scores and find that, overall, primary schools are 88.6% and secondary schools 96.4% efficient. The index describing community socio-educational advantage has the most significant influence on students’ achievement scores.     

School Responsiveness to Quality Rankings: An Empirical Analysis of Secondary Education in the Netherlands

This paper assesses the response of Dutch secondary schools to the publication of relative quality ratings in a national newspaper (Trouw). Our research design exploits the discontinuities in the ranking formula that was used to generate five consecutive levels for the overall quality of schools.We find previous Trouw quality scores to have an offsetting effect on school quality performance, i.e. both average grades and the number of diplomas go up after receiving a negative score. These effects are confined to the lower support of the performance distribution.     

Modernization and rural imagery at the Paris Salon: an interdisciplinary approach to the economic history of art

This article proposes a novel interdisciplinary approach to the economic history of art. Engaging with research questions defined by the existing art‐historical literature, it draws on econometric approaches to understand better and measure how social and economic change affected artistic output—particularly output of rural imagery—in nineteenth‐century France. To facilitate this quantitative approach, the article introduces a novel data source that provides information about more than 140,000 works of art displayed in Paris during the nineteenth century. Analysis of this dataset demonstrates that artists’ ability to have regular access to the countryside, largely because of artists’ colonies and inexpensive train travel from Paris, had the greatest demonstrable effect on the output of landscape and rural genre painting in France during the nineteenth century.