Robust Monetary Framework for China

I. Introduction China has made tremendous gains in terms of economic growth in the last 15 years, by inviting foreign direct investment and increasing manufacturing production and exports. The currency unification (devaluation of the official rate and unification of the official and market rates) in 1994 also contributed to the efficiency in the monetary and foreign exchange systems. China was not severely affected by the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998, and instead China helped the regio…     

Australia, Canada, and the International Economy in the Era of Postwar Reconstruction, 1945–50

Early hopes that a multilateral economy could be speedily restored after World War II were shattered by the sterling crisis of 1947. In the ensuing retreat to bilateralism, Canada acted vigorously to strengthen economic links with the Americans, and in the late 1940s its export dependence on the United States increased dramatically. The Australian response to the crisis was to tighten trading and financial connections with Britain and the rest of the sterling area. The limitations of UK supply capacity, however, eventually encouraged a reversal of policy after the fall of the Labor government, and Australia turned to the dollar area to tap additional resources for accelerated economic development.     

我国外汇储备变动对通货膨胀的影响

由于我国长期实行换汇政策,这导致了我国外汇储备的迅速增加。而我国实行的是"钉住"美元的汇率政策,为了稳定汇率,这就要求中央银行在外汇市场上频繁地使用冲销工具,这也有可能造成国内经济的不稳定。中央银行的冲销政策导致了大量基础货币的投放,而这些投放的基础货币又是通过商业银行进入经济体系的,并且这些基础货币通过乘数效应进行放大,从而导致了货币供给的增加超过了经济系统所需的货币数量,由此产生了通货膨胀。     

Imperial Self-Insufficiency Rediscovered: Britain and Australia 1945–51

This paper addresses the unresolved debate about the timing of economic disengagement between Australia and Great Britain. During Chifley's administration international economic collaboration between Australia and Britain was close, Australia tending to identify its interests with those of the UK and the sterling area. Yet collaboration never stretched to acceptance by Australia of traditional forms of manufacturer–primary producer complementarity; this played no part in Canberra's postwar planning and priority given to industrialization led to the relative neglect of rural industries, which, together with the rapidly growing demands of its own population, reduced export surpluses and contributed to Australia's poor record as a food supplier. Buoyant export prices, especially for wool, combined with capital inflows from the UK to stimulate import demands. Because of dollar shortages most of these had to be sourced from Britain. From 1948 the UK not only expanded exports dramatically but was a major source of migrants and capital. Yet British industrial capacity in particular proved unequal to the task of meeting Australian needs. Imperial self-insufficiency again stood revealed, encouraging Menzies to look beyond the sterling area to support Australia's rapid development.     

我国高额外汇储备的管理方法探讨

在全球大部分国家仍深陷次贷危机引发的金融危机的泥潭中时,中国经济已经率先发出了企稳回升的信号。而伴随着经济的复苏,中国的外汇储备也摆脱了2009年初的负增长,并一举突破了2万亿美元的大关。巨额的外汇储备及储备的管理都引起了业界和学术界的极大关注。本文就这一问题进行深入分析,试图寻找适合于我国国情的外汇储备的管理方法,在保证外汇资产安全的前提下,实现外汇储备的保值和增值。     

Exchange Rate Regime,Financial Market Bubbles and Long‐term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital outflows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy‐induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital outflows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan's experience and given that China's foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.     

外汇储备剧增导致的货币政策困境

外汇储备是体现和制约货币政策有效性的重要因素。根据“三元悖论”,中国政府为确保汇率稳定,同时实现资本准自由流动,必定要以牺牲货币政策独立性为代价。外汇储备超常增长、大量外汇占款导致央行货币政策的实施陷入被动和效果趋弱的困境,给宏观调控政策的选择提出更加复杂的难题。基于此现状,本文对该困境形成的原因和不利影响加以分析,尝试寻求解决办法。     

Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data

This paper examines the temporal effect of domestic monetary policy surprises on both returns and volatility of returns of the South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The analysis in this “event study” proceeds using intra‐day minute‐by‐minute exchange rate data, repo rate data from the South African Reserve Bank's scheduled monetary policy announcements, and market consensus repo rate forecasts. A carefully selected sample over the period August 2003 to November 2017 ensures that the change in monetary policy is exogenous to the exchange rate. We find statistically and economically significant responses in intra‐day high‐frequency South African rand/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns and volatility of exchange rate returns to domestic interest rate surprises, but anticipated changes have no bearing on exchange rate returns and their volatility. The empirical results also indicate that there is an instantaneous response of the rand/dollar exchange rate to monetary policy surprises and that monetary policy news is an important determinant of the exchange rate until at least 42 minutes after the pronouncement – suggesting a high degree of market “efficiency” in its mechanical sense (although not necessarily in the deeper economic‐informational sense) in processing this information. Essentially, the asymmetric GARCH results exhibit no leverage effects – positive and negative information shocks have symmetric effects on conditional variance.     

After the veto: Australasian Commercial Policy in the mid sixties

The failure of Britain's application to join the EEC in 1961-3 did not eliminate the commercial uncertainty facing Australia and New Zealand. It was expected that Britain would apply again later, and in the meantime strike a hard commercial bargain with the dominions. This article shows how policy-makers in Australia and New Zealand fought to preserve their access to the British market after 1963, and to respond to the challenges posed by Japan's proposals for Pacific economic cooperation. External uncertainty brought Australia and New Zealand much closer together during the 1960s. The most enduring legacy of this period was the NAFTA agreement of 1965, which was the first step towards trans-Tasman economic integration.     

The determination and consequences of international liquidity

Summary In the 20 years since 1969, international reserves have shown considerable increases, that seem to be far in excess of any long-term global need. This was a consequence of the prominent role that the dollar continued to play in the monetary system, which made it easy for the United States to finance balance of payments deficits in its own currency, increasing the amount of dollars in reserves. In addition the Eurodollar market made international reserves to some extent demand/determined: there was a very elastic supply of liquidity in this market. These developments in international reserves have inflationary consequences. To prevent such consequences in the future, central banks should set up a systematic surveillance system for international liquidity together with the IMF and BIS. An essential instrument in this context would be for the United States to finance its balance of payments deficits in foreign currencies in world capital markets.Keynote speech for the Foundation Robert Triffin Szirak on 17 November 1994 in Brussels.     

国际资本流动与房地产、上证市场联动性研究

去年底以来,我国出现了国外短期资本出逃的现象,这直接导致了人民币兑美元汇率的连续"跌停"。一方面,作为国外资本的主要投资场所,房地产市场和上证市场的发展状况直接影响了国外短期资本的投资热情;另一方面,国外短期资本的流动也影响着房地产市场和上证市场的发展。鉴于此,本文从外汇储备、房地产市场以及上证市场三个角度,结合相关的实证分析方法,来深刻揭示这三者之间的相互影响关系。分析过程用到的方法包括ADF检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分析等。最后得出三者间存在较为明显的联动效应的结论。     

Renminbi Exchange Rate: Peg to A Wide Band Currency Basket

Persistent renminbi (RMB) devaluation expectations are one of the greatest threats to China's macroeconomic stability. Market interventions backed by huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls are not sufficient to eliminate the expectations of devaluation. Creating a market‐based and flexible RMB exchange rate regime holds the key to the elimination of devaluation expectations. The present paper compares the pros and cons of several policy options, and proposes to introduce, as a transition to free floating, a new exchange rate regime pegged to a currency basket with a wide band. The new regime should be able to give the RMB exchange rate enough flexibility to eliminate devaluation expectations as well as prevent excessive overshooting. To ensure a smooth transition, the new regime needs to be supported by controlling cross‐border capital flows.     

The Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate During the First Nine Months of World War II

Between August 25, 1939 and June 7, 1940, there was a free market for British pounds in New York. German success at the outset of World War II caused the value of free sterling to fall relative to the official exchange rate. This imposed an externality that made it more difficult for Britain to finance the war. Eventually, the externality became large enough that Britain chose to take extreme measures to abolish it, even at the expense of tarnishing the reputation of London’s financial markets. We collected daily data to investigate how the market reacted to war news and to policy changes. Using methods developed by Bai and Perron (Econometrica 66:47–78, 1998; Journal of Applied Econometrics 18:1–22, 2003), we find 17 breaks in the exchange rate. Fourteen are associated with military events and three are associated with policy changes. The episode illustrates how markets can fail to serve the public interest during times of war.     

Responding to the global financial crisis: Vietnamese exchange rate policy, 2008–2009

The paper presents an analysis of exchange rate policy in Vietnam during 2008–2009. In early 2008, the country faced a sudden reversal of capital flows as signs of developing domestic vulnerabilities became evident. The downward pressure on the dong then intensified with the onset of the global financial crisis in the fall. In these environments, the Vietnamese authorities responded with various exchange rate policy measures. The paper documents a shift in Vietnam's de facto exchange rate regime, from a basket peg to a simple US dollar peg, when the domestic vulnerabilities became compounded by the evolving global crisis. The authorities utilized additional measures to relieve pressure on the parallel exchange rate. An event study methodology finds little evidence of systematic effectiveness for these policy actions; any effectiveness was short-lived. A close examination of individual actions suggests that the impact of foreign exchange market intervention appeared more consistent than any other type of measure and most effective when combined with other measures.     

The costs of non-tariff barriers to trade: Evidence from New Zealand

The Costs of Non-Tariff Barriers to Trade: Evidence from New Zealand. — Recent work on trade policy with imperfect competition indicates that the adverse effects of non-tariff barriers to trade exceed those suggested by traditional theory. With market power in foreign supply, setting a restrictive non-tariff barrier will induce foreign exporters to raise their supply prices. The authors use the experiment provided by the comprehensive New Zealand economic reforms of the mid-1980s. Using panel data on export unit values from Germany and the United States to several destinations including New Zealand, they find some evidence for decreased export prices to New Zealand as a result of the dismantling of non-tariff barriers to trade.     

人民币国际化的现状、影响及未来货币政策取向

当前人民币国际化具有外汇储备的扩大、币值的稳定、金融市场的完善等许多有利的条件，同时也存在经济发展方式粗放、资本管制、美元惯性等诸多不利的条件。人民币国际化对货币政策可能会产生多方面的影响。由于货币政策具有溢出效应，同时考虑到利率市场化的影响，人民币国际化后货币政策的独立性将受到较大的冲击。人民币国际化对传导机制的影响表现在：由传统的信贷传导机制逐步转换为汇率传导机制，同时传导途径将进一步灵活化。由于存在货币替代，货币需求函数将变复杂且货币流量将更难以监控。在政策传导工具方面，准备金政策和再贴现政策效果将被削弱，而公开市场业务效果将增强。为了应对人民币国际化可能产生的影响，应当从加强对人民币的监督、完善利率与汇率机制、推进资本项目开放和合理搭配政策等方面采取对策来加以解决。     

How the German crisis of 1931 swept across Europe: a comparative view from Stockholm†

According to conventional wisdom, the fall of the Swedish currency in September 1931 was caused by the sterling crisis. This article shows that the road towards devaluation began earlier and that financial linkages with Germany proved to be more important than Sweden's economic and monetary relations with Great Britain. It all started in late 1929 when the Swedish financier Ivar Kreuger gave a loan to the German government in exchange for the match monopoly, thus tying his business ventures to Germany's solvency. In addition, a part of this loan was financed by large US dollar credits from the two largest Swedish banks that, in turn, accumulated a sizeable foreign short‐term deficit. When in June 1931 the German fiscal crisis began to escalate, international investors ceased to consider Sweden a safe haven because they knew about the linkages between the German government, Kreuger, and the Swedish banking system. This downgrading, in combination with the foreign short‐term deficit of the banking sector, proved lethal for the reserve position of the Swedish central bank, once the international liquidity crisis in mid‐July 1931 erupted. The sterling crisis only put the final nail in the coffin.     

我国央行海外资产运作的风险与策略

面对美国爆发的金融危机向全球传递,我国中央银行需要有效地管理好外汇储备资产,调整多元化币种结构,转换增持美国国债的模式,增加进口与海外并购,不仅能提升我国行业竞争力和结构性调整,还能预防因美国经济衰退和美国政府倡导的全球注资带来的通货膨胀,防止日益增加的外汇储备遭遇贬值的风险。当前需要利用美元升值与资本市场价格暴跌产生的并购机遇,进行资本输出,收购价值被严重低估又有潜力的企业,这不仅是对美国未来经济增长的援助,也是增加海外投资收益促使外汇储备增长的新模式。     

The Old Commonwealth and Britain's First Application to Join the EEC, 1961–3

New Zealand, Canada, and Australia reacted in different ways to Britain's decision in 1961 to seek membership of the EEC. We show that the umbrage taken by the members of the old Commonwealth was in inverse proportion to the economic interests at stake. Canada, whose trade with Britain was relatively small, adopted a position of violent opposition to British policy. New Zealand, which was still heavily dependent on the UK as a market for staple commodities, was careful to avoid acting in a manner likely to alienate the British government. Australia, which was in an intermediate position as regards the importance of its trade with Britain, mounted a sturdy defence of its commercial interests, but did not indulge in the histrionics of the Canadians. All three of the old dominions were disappointed with the arrangements for Commonwealth trade towards which the UK and the Six were moving when de Gaulle vetoed British membership in January 1963, but at least New Zealand had obtained some special concessions. Whilst it is unlikely that a less combative attitude by Canada and Australia would have resulted in a better outcome for these countries, a more belligerent approach on the part of New Zealand would have put its economic future in even greater jeopardy.     

全球经济失衡态势下的东亚地区资本流动

在全球经济失衡背景下,东亚地区的资本流动呈现出与以往完全不同的特征,一方面是私人资本不断流入东亚地区且结构均衡,另一方面是大量的资本又从官方储备以购买美国国债的渠道流出东亚地区。今后东亚地区的这种资本流动将受到官方外汇储备变动、美国利率的变化、美元贬值、东亚汇率及其制度的调整等因素的影响。