基于事故致因“2-4”模型的粮堆埋人事故原因分析及预防对策研究

粮堆埋人事故发生率高,人员生还率低.为研究事故发生原因和预防措施,采用事故致因"2-4"模型对46起粮堆埋人事故进行分析.首先,从个人层面分析事故的直接原因和间接原因;其次,从组织层面分析事故发生的根本原因和根源原因;最后,构建粮堆埋人事故致因链,提出预防对策.结果表明:在不稳定粮堆表面作业、安全培训不到位等不安全动作和挡粮板设计不合理等不安全物态是导致事故的直接原因;安全知识不足、安全意识不高和安全习惯不佳是事故发生的间接原因;安全检查制度、外包管理制度、安全设施设备管理制度等的缺欠和落实不到位,结拱、挂壁处理和粮食出入仓作业规程等的缺欠或未严格规范人员作业是事故发生的根本原因;事故发生的根源原因是安全文化缺欠.     

Bagehot for beginners: the making of lender‐of‐last‐resort operations in the mid‐nineteenth century1

In this article we develop new tools to survey the development of lending‐of‐last‐resort operations in the mid‐nineteenth century. One finding is that free lending and extensive liquidity support against good collateral developed gradually after 1847, and was already a fact of life before Bagehot published Lombard Street. Another is that the extension of the Bank of England's lender‐of‐last‐resort function went along with a reduction of its exposure to default risks, in contrast with accounts that have associated lending of last resort with moral hazard. Finally, we provide a new interpretation of the ‘high rates’ advocated by Bagehot. We suggest they were meant to prevent banks from free‐riding on the safety offered by the central bank, and were aimed at forcing them to keep lending during crises so as to maintain a critical degree of liquidity in the money market.     

The impact of ‘stop‐go’ demand management policy on Britain's consumer durables industries, 1952–65

This article examines the impacts of British government ‘stop‐go’ policy on domestic sales of consumer durables over the period 1952–65, via hire purchase restrictions and punitive Purchase Tax rates. Our analysis includes a general review of contemporary evidence regarding the impacts of these measures, a more detailed study of the television sector, and time‐series econometric analysis for both televisions and a representative high‐ticket labour‐saving consumer durable: washing machines. We find that the restrictions had devastating impacts on Britain's consumer durables industries, preventing firms from fully exploiting economies of scale, reducing output growth and international competitiveness, and eroding industrial relations. Government officials were aware of these problems, but considered them a price worth paying to facilitate moves towards sterling convertibility and the re‐establishment of the City as a leading financial and trading centre.     

Tax‐Avoidance Activities of U.S. Multinational Corporations*

This paper investigates whether economies of scale exist for tax planning. In particular, do larger, more profitable, multinational corporations avoid more taxes than other firms, resulting in lower effective tax rates? While the empirical results indicate that, ceteris paribus, larger corporations have higher effective tax rates, firms with greater pre‐tax income have lower effective tax rates. The negative relation between effective tax rates (ETRs) and pretax income is consistent with firms with greater pre‐tax income having more incentives and resources to engage in tax planning. Consistent with multinational corporations being able to avoid income taxes that domestic‐only companies cannot, I find that multinational corporations in general, and multinational corporations with more extensive foreign operations, have lower worldwide ETRs than other firms. Finally, in a sample of multinational corporations only, I find that higher levels of U.S. pre‐tax income are associated with lower U.S. and foreign ETRs, while higher levels of foreign pre‐tax income are associated with higher U.S. and foreign ETRs. Thus, large amounts of foreign income are associated with higher corporate tax burdens. Overall, I find substantial evidence of economies of scale to tax planning.     

基于对应分析的民航从业人员安全信息传播途径的对比研究

为使民航从业人员有效的利用安全信息做好安全风险控制与事故预防工作,基于传播学理论,建立民航安全信息传播途径调查指标体系,通过对不同岗位、年龄、学历、职位和地区的民航从业人员获取安全信息的途径进行调查研究,采用对应分析的方法,研究不同类别民航从业人员对安全信息传播途径的使用程度。结果表明：不同人群在媒介的选择上差异较大,民航安全信息传播主体应注重分众传播,根据不同受众的特点进行安全信息的定向投放,使传播效果最优化。     

The British ‘failure’ that never was? The Anglo‐American ‘productivity gap’ in large‐scale interwar retailing—evidence from the department store sector1

Interwar British retailing has been characterized as having lower productivity, less developed managerial hierarchies and methods, and weaker scale economies than its US counterpart. This article examines comparative productivity for one major segment of large‐scale retailing in both countries—the department store sector. Drawing on exceptionally detailed contemporary survey data, we show that British department stores in fact achieved superior performance in terms of operating costs, margins, profits, and stock‐turn. While smaller British stores had lower labour productivity than US stores of equivalent size, TFP was generally higher for British stores, which also enjoyed stronger scale economies. We also examine the reasons behind Britain's surprisingly strong relative performance, using surviving original returns from the British surveys. Contrary to arguments that British retailers faced major barriers to the development of large‐scale enterprises, that could reap economies of scale and scope and invest in machinery and marketing to support the growth of their primary sales functions, we find that British department stores enthusiastically embraced the retail ‘managerial revolution’—and reaped substantial benefits from this investment.     

Balanced‐budget rule,distortionary taxes and aggregate stability

It has been established under perfect competition and constant returns‐to‐scale that a one‐sector growth model may exhibit multiple stationary equilibria and local indeterminacy when income tax rates are endogenously determined by a balanced‐budget rule while government expenditures are fixed. The present paper shows that determinacy of the equilibrium trajectory is, however, generically preserved for a non‐empty range of initial values of the capital stock.     

Gender Inequalities and Economic Efficiency: New Evidence from Cassava‐based Farm Holdings in Rural South‐western Nigeria

Abstract: It is a widely accepted fact that persistent inequality between men and women constrains a society's productivity and ultimately slows its rate of economic growth. The economy pays for this inequality in reduced labour productivity today and diminished national output tomorrow. Motivated by this, the study aim is to assess the possibilities of enhancing productivity gains by improving the efficiency of small‐scale agriculture through gender‐responsive intra‐household allocation of resources in south‐western Nigeria. The study adopts a stochastic parametric decomposition method which yields efficiency measures that are not distorted by statistical noise to estimate the efficiency level of resource allocation by small‐scale cassava producers. The results indicate that average overall productive efficiency in the sample was 75.78 per cent, implying that small‐scale cassava farmers in the sample could reduce total variable cost by 24.22 per cent if they reduce labour, fertilizer, land and capital applications to levels observed in the changing input mix (technical efficiency) and then obtain optimal input mix for the given input prices and technology (allocative efficiency). The average technical efficiency and allocative efficiency indexes for the sample were 82.2 per cent and 92.2 per cent respectively. Also, evidence from empirical analysis of data from the male respondents showed that the average economic, technical and allocative efficiency indexes were 88.06 per cent, 89.34 per cent and 78.67 per cent respectively while the same computed for the female sample were 94.9 per cent, 74.85 per cent and 71.03 per cent respectively. Labour was the most limiting factor in cassava production suggesting that the technologies that enhance the productivity of labour are likely to achieve significant positive effects on cassava production. The paper shares the notion that producers' control over the means of production and impact of development are related and has influence on the economic efficiency and growth of society. Again, technical inefficiency constituted a more serious problem than allocative inefficiency, thus most cost savings will accrue to improvement in technical efficiency.     

基于VISSIM的高速公路虚拟应急车道建模研究

为了解决高速公路建设规模和数量的提升导致的交通安全问题,对虚拟应急车道的工作原理进行研究,建立基于虚拟应急车道的高速公路行车规则模型,在事故紧急救援不同时间段构建车道数不同的虚拟应急车道控制策略模型。仿真实验结果表明,该模型可以缩短高速公路事故路段上车辆的平均行程时间,减少平均排队长度和平均延误,提高了事故救援效率,为高速公路救援体系建设提供思路和方向。     

The price of improvements: agrarian contracts and agrarian development in nineteenth‐century eastern Spain1

Fixed‐rent contracts do not free landlords from the need to supervise the land if it is of high value and fragile fertility, nor do they free them from the costs of monitoring farmers if they are poor peasants prone to fall into arrears. In such cases, however, compensation for improvements will encourage tenants to farm with care and act as a bond against non‐payment of rent. This article studies the repercussions of these kinds of situations by analysing what happened in nineteenth‐century Valencia, where being the owners of the improvements led to tenants eventually becoming the owners of the land.     

Religious minorities and firm ownership in early twentieth‐century Egypt

This article examines the composition of firm ownership and entrepreneurship in Egypt between 1910 and 1949 by assembling a novel dataset on multi‐owned firms. The evidence supports two main results. First, Muslim participation remained disproportionately low in partnerships but was distinctly high in corporations relative to non‐Muslims. Second, Muslim‐owned firms were frailer and more likely to experience early exits. The findings are consistent with the view that the region's institutional legacy, such as disparities in physical or human capital, created obstacles for Muslims. When these implications are tested, the findings show that only small‐scale Muslim firms had restricted access to capital. The skewness in Muslim firms’ entry and start‐up size is probably the result of legal distortions introduced by the government, which entrenched a small class of political elites in large‐scale firms.     

State Abortion Restrictions and Child Fatal-Injury: An Exploratory Study

This paper tests the hypothesis that state-level restrictions on abortion access are linked to increases in child fatal-injury rates. The rationale is that such restrictions may disproportionately increase births of “unwanted” children as well as births to young, single, and low socioeconomic-status mothers, which in turn may lead to more adverse child outcomes—including more child fatal injury deaths. The paper uses state-level data on child fatal injuries in the 0-4 age group for 1981-2002, and estimates count-data models with state and year effects separately for white and black children. The abortion restrictions considered are enforced parental consent and notification laws, no public funding, and mandatory delays. Many of the restrictions are found to be significantly associated with increased homicide-resultant fatal injuries for white and black children, and increased unintentional fatal injuries for white children. Results for unintentional fatal injuries for black children are mixed.     

Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression†

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.     

Co‐operatives and rural development

The role of co‐operatives in rural development depends largely on the aims of such development and on how co‐operatives are defined and structured. It is argued that successful co‐operatives at grassroots level need to be small‐scale, democratically organized by the people themselves, and aimed at providing for the benefit of as many households as possible. The objective of rural development should be to provide a livelihood for people through small‐scale production. The chances of success in this regard are slim given the constraints (such as land shortage) resulting from the policy of separate development.     

What are the Determinants of Large‐scale Farming in China?

The Chinese Government has increased its focus on expanding farm scale to promote agricultural development since 2010. A series of favorable polices has been adopted to support large‐scale farming. Using a multivariate probit model and 2015 and 2016 rural household survey data, the present paper examines the factors that influence small farmers' decision to become large‐scale farmers. The empirical regression results suggest that the decision to become a large‐scale farmer is significantly influenced by household human capital, cooperative membership, marketing channels, land‐transfer contracts and government policies. However, the influence of these factors differs with respect to becoming large‐scale grain and non‐grain farmers. These results imply that policy tools should target these factors and the appropriate group of small‐scale farmers. Generally, both central and local governments should promote large‐scale farming by enhancing rural households' human capital, improving marketing channels and providing agricultural social services, as well as encouraging returning migrant workers to engage in large‐scale farming.     

Interest Rate Pass-through in a Dual-track System： Evidence from China

Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.     

地区安全生产的经济社会风险因子分析——基于我国面板数据的实证分析

文章基于经济社会学与安全科学双重视角,探讨地区安全生产风险因子问题。解释变量为经济社会风险源中的10个因子,被解释变量为地区亿元GDP安全事故死亡率,分析的数据为2005—2007年各省市地区相关指标的面板数据,主要采用OLS、REM、FLS等回归分析法探讨各经济社会风险因子与地区安全生产的相关关系。研究结果表明：地区人均GDP、地区GDP增长率、地区产业结构系数、地区城市化水平、地区从业人员业务素质对亿元GDP安全事故死亡率在近三年内有反向关系;地区第二产业从业人员占比、地区高危行业增加值占比与亿元GDP安全事故死亡率之间具有正向关系;地区城镇人口密度与地区安全生产事故死亡率的关系微弱。     

Technology transfer via foreign patents in Germany, 1843–77

This article analyses the spread of innovation in mid‐nineteenth‐century Germany using foreign patents as an indicator for technology transfer. It introduces a new dataset of over 1,400 patents granted in the Grand Duchy of Baden between 1843 and 1877. The data show that Baden's technology import via foreign patents from German and non‐German inventors was important. This technology transfer was broadly based, although technologies related to the textile and machine‐building industries are prominent in the data. The decision to file a patent in Baden was driven by competition and the risk of imitation. Using a gravity model with city‐level data, we find evidence that technology transfer through patents reflected existing trade links. The strong correlation between technologies filed by foreigners and domestic inventors provides further evidence that the risk of imitation fostered patent‐based technology transfer during the mid‐nineteenth century. Furthermore, we show that foreigners filed patents predominantly in industries that accounted for a high share of the workforce in Baden.     

Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries

Using daily stock and bond returns data from four European countries—France, Germany, Spain, and Great Britain—that have been the victims of significant terrorist activity, this study addresses the issue of whether transnational and/or domestic terrorist attacks have affected in any significant manner the time‐varying stock–bond covariance, their returns, and their variances. Stock and bond markets can be influenced and determined not only by the usual array of macroeconomic factors but also by security shocks, such as a terrorist incident, that have the potential to affect investors' sentiment and portfolio allocation decisions. The issue at hand is addressed using a VAR(p)‐GARCH(1,1)‐in‐mean model, and the results reported herein indicate that terrorist attacks trigger a flight‐to‐safety effect primarily in France and Germany and to a smaller degree in Great Britain and Spain.     

Pieces of eight,pieces of eight: seamen's earnings and the venture economy of early modern seafaring†

Historians have generally argued that between the medieval period and the eighteenth century seafarers transformed from collaborative adventurers with a share in their vessel to the first international wage‐earning proletariat. This interpretation has drawn upon relatively limited statistical analysis of mariners’ wages, and underestimates the variety of seafarers’ remuneration and economic activities besides wages themselves. This article undertakes a more sustained analysis of seventeenth‐century wage data drawn from the papers of the English High Court of Admiralty, and uses the same evidence to examine other forms of income, both customary payments as part of shipping, and small‐scale trade. Seafarers of all ranks carried their own commodities on all shipping routes, offering an opportunity to increase their income considerably. This evidence confirms that the maritime labour market was hierarchical, and that very often seafarers were poor labourers facing economic insecurity of many kinds. However, it refines the previous interpretation by emphasizing the presence of skilled workers even among the lower levels of this labour market, and by introducing a new dimension to mariners’ economic agency: they were not simply wage‐workers, but also independent participants in a venture economy.