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1.
本文采用显示性比较优势指数测算了东亚主要经济体的细分农业和制造业的行业比较优势,发现各经济体的比较优势与其要素禀赋密切相关.但近几年来东亚各经济体的比较优势发生了很大的变化,其中,贸易结构正逐渐转变为以资本、技术密集型产业为主.以贸易互补指数测算东亚主要经济体之间的贸易互补性,发现日本与东盟、韩国与东盟、中国与东盟总体上呈互补关系,中国与日本、中国与韩国总体上呈竞争互补关系,而日本与韩国为竞争关系.最后,为深入考察中国与东盟的经贸关系,本文测算了中国与东盟各成员国之间在世界市场上的出口相似指数,认为中国与东盟各成员国重工业产品的出口趋同态势日趋明显,双方在争夺世界市场中竞争激烈,但整体上中国与东盟仍存在一定的互补性. 相似文献
2.
1.人民币国际化对中国经济利大于弊。中国是世界第二大经济体和第二大贸易国,但其货币不能自由兑换,更不是主要的贸易结算货币和国际储备货币,导致我国对外贸易对外国货币过度依赖,承受极大的汇率波动风险;大量的外汇储备承受极大的贬值损失风险。人民币国际化的最大利益首先,有利于中国经济和金融减少对外国货币的依赖,减小企业和居民在对外经济交往中承受的汇率风险;其次,有利于提高中国在国际金融体系和经济体系中的地位和话语权;最后,随着人民币逐步 相似文献
3.
随着人民币国际化进程的加快,人民币汇率波动的国际效应进一步加强。文章分别建立了单一国家和多国的动态 CGE 模型,基于最新的全球贸易分析计划(GTAP )数据库和中国2012年投入产出表,分别模拟了2016-2030年人民币持续贬值和先贬值后升值的两种情景,并从物价水平、国际贸易、经济总量、行业产出等多个方面分析了人民币汇率变动对中国及世界主要经济体的影响。研究发现:(1)在价格指数方面,人民币贬值将给中国带来一定的通货膨胀压力;(2)在贸易方面,人民币贬值只能在短期内扩大中国的净出口,但在远期反而会导致净出口下降;(3)在经济总量方面,人民币贬值只在开始阶段的短期内能促进中国经济增长,而长期贬值将导致中国经济增长速度放缓;(4)在产业结构方面,中国的农业和工业在贬值情景下的产量呈现先升后降的趋势,而服务业的产量持续下降。总之,两种情景均不利于中国经济的长远发展;相反,东盟、日本和美国等世界主要经济体将从中长期受益。因此,中国政府应当制定若干针对性的政策措施,加强预期管理,实施差别化的外贸政策,加强多方合作,积极应对国际汇率波动带来的风险。 相似文献
4.
跨境贸易人民币结算失衡问题研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
跨境贸易人民币结算失衡明显,造成这一矛盾的主要原因在于以劳动密集型产品为主的出口商品贸易结构,出口企业缺乏议价能力、人民币升值预期以及人民币离岸市场广度和深度发展有限。结果是:一方面增加外汇储备资产风险暴露头寸;另一方面造成货币当局和境内进口企业福利损失。解决的方法是增强汇率制度弹性、深化人民币离岸市场和优化出口贸易结构以期完善人民币作为计价货币的市场条件。 相似文献
5.
东盟已经超过日本成为中国第三大贸易伙伴,在中国对外贸易中占有重要地位。利用协整方法,使用季度数据对中国—东盟5国的贸易收支和人民币实际有效汇率、东盟5国实际GDP、中国实际GDP之间的关系进行实证研究,发现这四者之间存在长期均衡的关系;人民币实际有效汇率和中国—东盟5国贸易收支之间存在因果关系;人民币实际有效汇率升值对中国—东盟5国贸易存在"反J曲线效应",即短期内人民币升值会改善贸易收支。因此,中国和东盟5国的双边贸易收支状况可以通过变动人民币实际有效汇率来调整。 相似文献
6.
2018年12月28日,经国务院同意,中国人民银行等13个部委联合发布《广西壮族自治区建设面向东盟的金融开放门户总体方案》,广西建设面向东盟金融开放门户正式上升为国家战略。近十年来,凡是与中国外交关系良好、经贸关系密切的国家(地区)几乎都与中国政府签署双边本币互换协议。尽管这些年越南与中国经济贸易往来日益频繁,双方贸易规模和跨境直接投资规模迅猛增长,但直到今天,中国与越南都没有签署双边本币互换协议,以至于人民币在越南的使用存在不少障碍,越南政府规定人民币只准在中越边境地区20公里范围内的贸易结算中使用,导致现在越南的一般贸易进出口和大宗商品交易主要用美元计价和结算,这对广西跨境贸易人民币业务的创新,建设面向东盟金融开放门户非常不利。因此,推动中国与越南两国政府签署双边货币互换协议,是广西建设面向东盟金融开放门户的有效途径。 相似文献
7.
中国-东盟农产品贸易持续逆差研究 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
本文阐述了中国对东盟农产品贸易现状,从不同角度对中国对东盟农产品贸易持续逆差现象及其原因进行了分析,并发现中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差呈总体扩大趋势。得出如下结论:首先,中国-东盟农产品贸易逆差总体呈上升趋势;其次,中国对东盟主要农产品贸易逆差国为马来西亚、印度尼西亚和泰国;再者,主要出口农产品形成的贸易逆差是构成中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差的主要原因之一;最后,中国农产品比较优势下降,东盟主要农产品贸易逆差国的农产品的比较优势较为明显也是引起贸易逆差的原因之一。 相似文献
8.
东盟地区的国际旅游贸易及有关政策措施 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
东盟地区的国际旅游贸易及有关政策措施张汉林,梁丹(对外经贸大学国际经贸学院)东盟国际旅游业的市场规模和结构80年代以来,东盟地区吸纳的世界旅游观光者越来越多,1987─1989年涌入东盟国家的旅游者每年增加12.8%。1988年,东盟地区获得了世界旅... 相似文献
9.
汇率波动是影响人民币跨境结算的重要因素。探究不同区制状态下汇率波动对人民币双向FDI和贸易结算影响将具有重要现实意义。研究结果表明:人民币汇率波动存在平稳波动、低波动和高波动三种区制状态;人民币汇率的过高波动对人民币双向FDI和贸易结算均会产生抑制作用,且过多的汇率干预也会抑制双向FDI结算中人民币的使用;此外,还发现人民币双向FDI结算将促进人民币贸易的结算,但人民币贸易结算将抑制人民币双向FDI的结算。因此,我国应该加快汇率市场化改革,确保人民币汇率在合理区间平稳波动,同时还应处理好人民币在双向FDI和贸易结算中的关系,使人民币跨境结算能够在双向FDI和贸易中实现并驾齐驱。 相似文献
10.
朱鹏涛 《经济技术协作信息》2013,(8):1-1
跨境贸易人民币结算就是进出口贸易时用人民币报关并结算。国际贸易主要结算货币为美元或欧元,2008年金融危机爆发后,我国为了让企业避免较大的汇率波动风险,开始进行跨境贸易人民币结算试点工作,并收到了积极效果。跨境贸易中以人民币进行结算,不仅将有效降低企业在贸易中面临的汇率波动风险,同时也预示着在跨境贸易中人民币从计价货币提升为结算货币,顺应了国内外市场、企业的需求。本文就跨境贸易人民币结算存在的问题与应对策略进行了探讨,对于促进我国与周边国家和地区的贸易发展将起着重要作用。 相似文献
11.
China is often accused of manipulating its currency to gain international competitiveness. Previous studies have tried to address this issue by investigating the impact of yuan depreciation on China’s trade balance. Not only have they failed to establish the link between the Chinese exchange rate and its trade balance with the rest of the world but also between China and her major trading partners. In this article, we consider the China–UK trade balance and disaggregate their trade flows by commodity. Out of the 47 industries considered, we show that the real depreciation has favourable short-run effects in most industries. However, the short-run effects last into the long run only in seven cases. 相似文献
12.
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee Marzieh Bolhassani Scott W. Hegerty 《Research in Economics》2010,64(4):212-223
Since studies of North American trade flows tend to focus on the United States as the main trading partner, trade between Canada and Mexico has received relatively little attention. Here, we examine bilateral trade flows for 62 Canadian export industries to Mexico and 45 import industries from Mexico to assess the effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on these individual trade flows. We find that Mexico’s largest export industries respond to depreciation more than Canada’s largest export industries do. Both countries’ trade flows are influenced even more by trade integration. Since there is evidence of strong intra-industry trade between these two countries, we can attribute this effect to the exploitation of economies of scale. 相似文献
13.
E. Kwan Choi 《The Japanese Economic Review》2001,52(4):405-416
This paper investigates the effects of population growth and China's entry into the world trading regime on the North and the South. In the absence of the terms of trade effect, population growth reduces the standard of living and causes a decline in welfare. Unilateral trade liberalization of China will worsen the terms of trade for other countries in the South, but will improve those for the North. Thus, population control is an important means to close the gap in per capita income between developing and developed economies. Trade liberalization by developing countries may not necessarily induce income convergence. JEL Classification Number: F1. 相似文献
14.
Historically, the world economy has been dominated by a single currency accepted in the exchange of goods and assets among countries. In recent decades, the U.S. dollar has played this role. The dollar acts as a “vehicle currency” in the sense that agents in nondollar economies will generally engage in currency trade indirectly using the U.S. dollar instead of using direct bilateral trade among their own currencies. A vehicle currency is desirable when there are transactions costs of exchange. This article constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model of a vehicle currency. We explore the nature of the efficiency gains arising from a vehicle currency and show how it depends on the total number of currencies in existence, the size of the vehicle currency economy, and the monetary policy followed by the vehicle currency’s government. We find that there can be significant welfare gains to a vehicle currency in a system of many independent currencies. But these gains are asymmetrically weighted toward the residents of the vehicle currency country. The survival of a vehicle currency places natural limits on the monetary policy of the vehicle currency country. 相似文献
15.
THE SUITABILITY OF A GREATER CHINA CURRENCY UNION 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Abstract. The study assesses the level of integration among the three Greater China economies (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan) and examines the suitability of a Greater China currency union. The three economies already have extensive trade and investment linkages. Our analyses show that they share common long‐run and short‐run cyclical variations. We also estimate the output costs of relinquishing policy autonomy to form a currency union. The estimated output losses, which depend on, e.g., the method used to generate shock estimates, seem to be moderate and are likely to be less than the efficient gains derived from a currency union. 相似文献
16.
Events in the Eurozone have raised the possibility that a Eurozone member departs the currency union. We devise a simulation to examine whether trading firms in the departed country will continue to invoice their product in the Euro or elect another currency denomination strategy. Because trading firms have flexibility in choosing their invoicing currency, they make an excellent case for studying the currency usage patterns of other economic actors that may emerge after Eurozone departure. Results suggest that greater price discrimination leads to more use of the buyer’s currency while firms that set only one price will tend to denominate that price in the U.S. dollar. Low exchange rate volatility between the exiting country’s new currency and the Euro leads to more Euro usage. 相似文献
17.
David Vines 《The Australian economic review》1995,28(1):35-58
Abstract This article is about three phases in Australian trade policy: protectionism, unilateral liberalisation, and participation in regional trade liberalisation. Australia used to have one of the most protected economies in the world. The last dozen years have seen a radical transformation of Australian economic policy: Australia is in the process of becoming one of the most open economies in the world. The last five-to-ten years have also seen a related transformation of Australian foreign economic policy. This policy is now centrally concerned with promoting the process of international economic integration within the Asian region; particularly through the APEC process. Should Australia be pursuing ‘open regionalism’ in the Pacific? or promoting an Asia Pacific trading bloc? or concentrating on its own unilateral trade liberalisation? or using its energy to press for global liberalisation through the GATT? I argue that there remains a deep contradiction in the APEC process; that ‘open regionalism’ is in Australia's interests, and that the critical test of Australia's conversion to liberalisation will come in this third phase, in the future answers that it gives to these questions. 相似文献
18.
《Journal of Comparative Economics》2017,45(4):847-864
FTA bilateral and regional negotiations in Asia have developed quickly in the past decade moving Asia ever closer to an economic union. This paper uses a fifteen-country global general equilibrium model with trade costs to numerically calculate Debreu distance measures between the present situation and potential full Asia integration in the form of a trade bloc. Our results reveal that these large Asia economies can be close to full integration if they act timely in agreements through negotiation. All Asia countries will gain from Asia trade bloc arrangements except when the Asia FTA can only eliminate tariffs. These countries’ gain will increase as bilateral non-tariff elimination deepens. Larger countries will gain more than small countries. Asia FTA, Asia Union and RCEP will benefit member countries more than ASEAN+3. Global free trade will benefit all countries the most. 相似文献
19.
美元堪称世界的"霸权"货币,其地位的维持要借助在位货币的优势和外力支持,本文通过面板模型对美元国际地位的影响因素进行了实证分析。在静态面板模型中发现,一国(地区)同美国的实际进出口贸易额、一国(地区)外汇市场规模对美元的国际地位均产生重要的正面影响,这表明一国(地区)与美国的实际进出口贸易额越大或一国(地区)外汇市场越发达,该国(地区)对美元的需求量越大。随后的动态面板模型不仅支持了上述结论,而且发现前一期外汇市场的实际货币交易量也是影响美元充当主要国际货币的重要因素,一国(地区)前一期外汇市场的实际货币交易量越大,其越青睐于持有美元,美元在该国(地区)的地位就越高。这一结论证实了网络外部性效应所发挥的重要作用。 相似文献