外商直接投资对我国技术进步效应的测度

改革开放以来,中国已成为仅次于美国和英国的第三大外商直接投资接受国。实践表明,外商直接投资对我国区域经济增长的贡献主要体现在经济效应和技术溢出效应等方面。外国资本通过投资我国现代制造业产生了效益,提高了资本密集程度和劳动生产率,也是我国工业化的催化剂。本文通过建立用外商直接投资将技术进步内生化的增长模型,定量测算了我国FDI的技术进步效应。     

基于四维分解的FDI溢出与城市经济增长研究——以珠三角为例

本文研究珠三角外商直接投资溢出效应与经济增长的关系。根据溢出的途径将溢出效应分为投资溢出效应、人力资本溢出效应、技术溢出效应和贸易溢出效应。实证分析结果表明,珠三角各市外商直接投资溢出效应以及对城市经济增长的贡献作用差别明显,但也存在一些共同点;外商直接投资溢出效应存在与否与城市的地理位置和经济发展水平密切相关,珠三角沿海城市的外商直接投资溢出效应明显强于内陆腹地城市。最后为珠三角进一步引进外商直接投资,促进经济增长及区域协调发展提出了政策建议。     

FDI与区域经济增长互动效应的计量分析——基于江苏省的实证研究

东部发达地区之一江苏省利用自身优势条件及优惠政策吸收了大量的外商直接投资,对当地区域经济增长起到了巨大的促进作用。文章利用1985-2005年时间序列数据,采用计量研究方法,对外商直接投资与地区经济增长的互动效应进行了实证分析。研究发现,外商直接投资与区域经济增长存在长期均衡的关系,并且在短期,两者存在互为因果的关系,而在长期,外商直接投资对区域经济增长只存在单向的因果关系。     

外商直接投资对浙江省内投资的挤入效应研究

本文建立了衡量挤入、挤出效应的计量模型,利用模型定量地讨论了外商直接投资(FDI)对浙江省国内投资的挤入、挤出效应,得到了外商直接投资对浙江省内投资存在挤入效应的结论,并分析了产生挤入效应的原因.     

FDI、国内资本与经济增长的协整分析

本文基于协整理论gVAR模型,利用中国1983年-2006年的年度经济数据,实证检验了外商直接投资、国内资本与经济增长之间的关系。结果表明：①三个变量之间存在一种长期稳定的均衡关系;②短期内三个变量之间均存在单向因果关系,但因果关系的方向各异;③外商直接投资对于中国经济增长只有水平效应,在长期并无增长率效应;④无论长期还是短期,国内资本都对经济增长存在正向效应,是引起国内经济增长的主要原因。     

辽宁省工业部门FDI技术溢出效应分析

外商直接投资在促进东道国经济增长以及技术进步方面扮演着重要的角色,不仅可以增加东道国的资本存量、提高投资质量以及缓解东道国的就业压力,而且通过技术溢出效应使东道国的技术水平、组织效率不断提高,从而促进东道国经济增长.近年来,辽宁省不断加大吸引外商直接投资力度,提高了辽宁省的技术水平,一定程度上对经济增长做出了贡献.通过引用以内生经济增长模型为基础的技术外溢效应模型建立计量分析模型,来探讨辽宁省吸引外商直接投资的技术外溢效应.     

外商直接投资的知识溢出与中国区域经济增长

本文构建了包括国内知识资本、外商在华直接投资的知识溢出和地区技术进步的分析框架,通过中国29个省(直辖市、自治区)1992—2006年的面板数据检验了中国区域R&D投入、外商在华直接投资的知识溢出对地区技术进步的影响。研究表明:地区自身科技投入是推动地区技术进步的最主要因素;受中国目前引资结构和质量的影响,外商在华直接投资的知识溢出效应特别是通过FDI企业在当地从事生产活动带来的知识溢出效应并不明显;FDI渠道传递的外国R&D资本对技术进步的促进作用与当地的经济、科技发展水平有着密切关系。在上述结论的基础上,论文对中国FDI引资战略和区域经济发展提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国外商直接投资和经济增长相关性的实证分析

理论和源自一些发达国家和地区的经验表明,外商直接投资（FDI）对经济增长存在正向促进效应。运用计量方法分析中国2005—2010年31个省市、自治区、直辖市的面板数据,并采用固定效应分析和随机效应分析等分析方法,考察了中国各地区外商直接投资与地区生产总值的关系。实证结果显示,中国外商直接投资和经济增长之间存在较高的相关性。     

我国FDI区域分布差异问题及原因探析

本文通过对外商直接投资区域分布绝对差异、增长率差异、相对规模差异的现状分析,认为外资经济目前已经成为我国经济发展的一个重要经济增长点,但外商直接投资并没有均衡地进入我国各地,地区间外商直接投资规模差异的不断扩大成为区域经济增长差距不断拉大的重要原因.     

FDI与经济增长关系的实证分析——以宁波为例

外商直接投资(FDI)与区域经济增长之间存在着相互影响的关系。宁波作为东部沿海经济发展迅速的城市,GDP及外商直接投资不断壮大。文章借助计量模型,通过对宁波有关经济数据的处理,从相关性、Granger因果关系等方面分析了FDI与宁波经济增长之间的关系。     

Knowledge and productivity in the world’s largest manufacturing corporations

This paper develops a model linking firm knowledge with productivity. The model captures three characteristics of firm knowledge (capital, diversity and relatedness) that are tested on a sample of 156 of the world’s largest corporations. Panel data regression models suggest that unlike knowledge diversity, knowledge capital and knowledge relatedness explain a substantial share of the variance of firm productivity. Relatedness matters because it lowers coordination costs between heterogeneous activities. Consequently, the traditional econometric specification has repeatedly underestimated by 15 percent the overall short-run contribution of intangible assets to firm productivity. This underestimation becomes fiercer in high-technology sectors.     

A simple nested test of the Almost Ideal Demand System

The MPIGLOG specification of an indirect utility function gives rise to Cooper and McLaren's (1992) Modified Almost Ideal Demand System (MAIDS) specification, which nests the Almost Ideal Demand System. Following the ‘combined’ approach outlined by Fry, Fry and McLaren (1993), we transform the deterministic equations to logratio form for estimation. This procedure not only restricts the shares implied by the model to the unit simplex, but also provides a transparent representation of the restriction implied by the Almost Ideal Demand System. We estimate MAIDS (with and without the Almost Ideal Demand System restriction imposed) using the ‘combined’ approach and proceed to test the Almost Ideal Demand System restriction.     

Modelling Evolving Long-run Relationships: An Application to the Italian Energy Market

This paper considers a SUTSE model embedded in a dynamic framework to estimate an energy cost share model for the Italian economy in an evolving environment. This is achieved by allowing stochastic seasonal and trend components in the long-run specification and constructing an error correction mechanism to model short-run dynamics. Modelling instability in the structural time series approach is shown to be a very flexible approach to non conventional cointegration analysis. Tests for instability in the cointegrating regression support the evolving specification adopted.     

“Price Levels and Economic Growth: Making Sense of Revisions to Data on Real Incomes”: A Comment

In his recent paper, Ravallion (2013) proposes a new method to predict changes in purchasing power parities (PPPs), arguing that a model that includes economic growth and exchange rate movements is superior to the standard approach of using inflation differences. In this comment, I argue that his test is wrong and I show that with a correct specification of the test, there is no robust and stable relationship between changes in PPPs and economic growth while the usefulness of the standard approach is confirmed. I also suggest an approach that could be more helpful to understand changes in PPPs.     

The Growth-maximizing Tax Rate

This note is a reply to Professor Kennedy's criticism of the specification of my model on taxation and economic growth and my testing of the degree of homogeneity of the growth-generating function in an earlier paper in this journal. I find that the model relating the pattern in the growth rate to the pattern in the division of the share of output is not affected by incorporating factor inputs into the model, that the function is homogeneous of degree one, and that the growth-maximizing tax rate of about 20 percent of GDP stands, as in the original paper.     

The empirical content of Cournot competition

We consider the testable implications of the Cournot model of market competition. Our approach is nonparametric in the sense that we abstain from imposing any functional specification on market demand and firm cost functions. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for (reduced form) equilibrium market price and quantity functions to be consistent with the Cournot model. In addition, we present identification results for the corresponding inverse market demand function and the firm cost functions. Finally, we use our approach to derive testable restrictions for the models of perfect competition, collusion and conjectural variations. This identifies the conditions under which these different models are empirically distinguishable from the Cournot model. We also investigate empirical issues (measurement error and omitted variables) related to bringing our testable restrictions to data.     

On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems: Comment

Sarlin (2013) suggests that if a loss function approach is chosen to derive the optimal threshold for financial crisis early warning indicators, the loss function specification should explicitly take into account the unconditional sample crisis probability. In this comment we argue that this approach is not robust to small perturbations of the preference parameter and is not easy to use for policy purposes. We suggest therefore to continue using a simpler loss function specification.     

Specification via model selection in vector error correction models

This paper proposes a model selection approach for the specification of the cointegrating rank in the VECM representation of VAR models. Asymptotic properties of estimates are derived and their features compared with the traditional likelihood ratio based approach.     

How do central banks react to wealth composition and asset prices?

We assess the response of monetary policy to developments in asset markets in the euro area, the US and the UK. We estimate the reaction of monetary policy to wealth composition and asset prices using: (i) a linear framework based on a fully simultaneous system approach in a Bayesian environment; and (ii) a nonlinear specification that relies on a smooth transition regression model.     

Multinational companies and indirect employment: measurement and evidence

This study suggests a new approach towards measuring the indirect employment effects of multinational companies (MNCs) using a simple Cobb-Douglas production function. Based on the assumption that domestic sales by indigenous firms in a sector are supplies for multinationals in that sector rather than final goods, indirect employment effects are measured as the effect of an increase in domestically purchased inputs on employment in indigenously-owned suppliers. Applying this measure to data for the electronics sector in Ireland we find that there have been positive indirect effects of MNCs on employment in indigenous firms. The value of the estimated coefficients depends somewhat on the specification of the model estimated but the standard specification suggests that a 10% increase in domestically sold output by indigenous firms leads to an employment growth of around 2% in these firms.