西部农户小额信贷还款率影响因素分析

利用主成分分析方法和logistic回归模型,对西部地区小额信贷还款率影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明农户专业技能、信用等级、农户收入、贷款利率、贷款期限、贷款用途等因素与小额信贷还款率显著相关,农户年龄、受教育程度、贷款金额等因素对小额信贷还款率的影响不显著,不同因素在影响小额信贷还款率时具有重要次序性,农户专业技能、信用等级、农户收入、贷款利率、贷款期限、贷款用途、是否贴息、经营能力对小额信贷还款率的影响最为重要,其次为劳动力人数和耕地面积因素。     

Loan Repayment Performance in Community Development Finance Institutions in the UK

This paper identifies the key institutional factors that influence loan loss rates in Community Development Finance Institutions in the UK. Traditional bank credit assessment puts the blame of poor loan performance largely on the borrower. This is the first study of its kind to examine institutional characteristics of 16 CDFIs in the UK and assess their influence on the loan loss rates. The results show that 8 out of the 13 institutional characteristics examined significantly influence loan repayment performance. Although a vast body of literature supports the view that borrower characteristics are highly influential, our results provide strong evidence to show that institutional characteristics are equally important and both factors need to be taken into account if loan repayment performance is to be improved.     

Problem‐Solving Orientations,Financial Self‐Efficacy,and Student‐Loan Repayment Stress

Using data acquired from a four‐time longitudinal survey, we tested a model linking two measures of self‐agency, i.e., problem‐solving orientations and financial self‐efficacy, to student‐loan repayment stress. Of those participants who responded at Wave 4 (N = 855) of a longitudinal study, 396 who had acquired student loans were included in our structural equation model's Mplus analysis. After we controlled for gender, college financial education, ethnicity, and participant annual income, we found that both financial self‐efficacy and negative problem‐solving orientation were related to perceived difficulty. More specifically, those participants with a greater financial self‐efficacy at Wave 4 perceived less difficulty in paying off their loans, while those with a more negative problem‐solving orientation perceived more difficulty in paying off their loans. We also found perceived difficulty to be directly related to the actual difficulty of repaying a loan, and this perceived difficulty was, in turn, associated with loan‐specific stress. We provide implications for financial education.     

Entrepreneurial motivation and business performance: evidence from a French Microfinance Institution

This article examines the link between entrepreneurial motivation and business performance in the French microfinance context. Using hand-collected data on business microcredits from a Microfinance Institution (MFI), we provide an indirect measure of entrepreneurial success through loan repayment performance. Controlling for the endogeneity of entrepreneurial motivation in a bivariate probit model, we find that “necessity entrepreneurs” are more likely to have difficulty repaying their microcredits than “opportunity entrepreneurs”. However, type of motivation does not appear to make a difference to business survival. We test for the robustness of our results using parametric duration models and show that necessity entrepreneurs experience difficulties in loan repayment earlier than their opportunity counterparts, corroborating our initial findings. Our results are also robust to a sharper analysis of motivation, focusing on unemployment (on the necessity side) and non-pecuniary benefits from success (on the opportunity side).     

The determinants of households’ repayment difficulties on mortgage loans: evidence from Italian microdata

This article investigates the main determinants of households’ repayment difficulties on mortgage loans in Italy. We contribute to the empirical literature on household financial vulnerability by assessing the joint impact of socio‐demographic factors, loan characteristics and institutional variables on the likelihood of mortgage insolvency and on the intensity of arrears. Using data from the Italian component of the 2008 European Union‐Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU‐SILC) survey, we firstly identify which types of households are more vulnerable to unexpected adverse events that may trigger repayment difficulties. Specifically, households whose head is young, unemployed or immigrant show a higher probability of arrears and emerge as those suffering more from the adverse economic conditions connected to the crisis. Moreover, household repayment behaviour is affected by mortgage characteristics and, in particular, having modified contract terms significantly increases current arrears probability. Finally, regional institutional and credit market factors mainly impact on the conditional intensity of arrears. This evidence suggests that, although repayment difficulties mainly arise from a genuine inability to repay, households are less likely to pay on time when institutions are less effective at punishing default, confirming the existence of some strategic behaviour.     

Determinants of the Low SME Loan Approval Rate in Croatia

The paper proposes a new methodological framework for investigating consistency in loan assessment decisions and determinants of loan approval based on structural equation modelling and covariance structure analysis. We focus on a governmental SME loan programme in Croatia and investigate possible reasons for low loan approval rate that occurred in spite of interest rates subsidisation and sufficient supply of the loan funds. The novelty of the methodological approach taken is that it enables simultaneous investigation of the determinants of the loan approval and testing for consistency in the loan assessment decisions, which need not be assumed. We test several hypotheses about consistency in the loan approval decisions and lending preferences in Croatia. The empirical findings reject overall consistency of criteria but indicate a preference toward smaller loans. Among all SME loan requests, banks preferred smaller firms that requested smaller loans. The results suggest that individual banks differ in their criteria and in their loan-size preferences and that there is no positive correlation between the bank’s size and its loan-size preference.     

Factors Determining Credit Worthiness of Low Income Consumers

The purpose of this study was to identify variables that can be used in granting credit to low income consumers. Credit behavior, as exemplified by loan repayment, was examined with respect to economic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics of borrowers from a credit union that had been established to serve low income people in Columbus, Ohio. Findings indicate that early warning signals—default and delinquency—are given by borrowers when a loan is going bad. Consumer education and financial counseling might help eliminate this problem.     

Determinants of Group Lending in the Credit Union Industry in Ghana

Using binomial logistic analysis, the authors analyze data on 222 credit unions (CUs) drawn from the CU industry in Ghana in the 2008 financial year and find that CUs that have larger size of management, lower repayment performance, no delinquent loans over 30 days, better liquidity positions, and have been in the CU business for a long time, are more likely to adopt group lending. The findings of this study also show that the gender structure of a CU does not influence its group lending decision. The authors argue that CUs adopt group lending to improve their loan repayment performance, consistent with the literature.     

Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Bank Capital

The focus of this paper is on the interaction between a bail-out loan decision of a bank to a sovereign borrower and the adequacy of the bank's capital. The new loan is granted on two conditions: First, it must improve the likelihood of repayment of the outstanding loan; second the bank should have adequate capital.We find that in general a positive relationship exists between capital and the bail out loan and between existing debt and the new loan. However, under certain circumstances a negative relationship exists between the bank's capital and the new loan. Empirical results support the main implications of the theoretical model.     

Bargaining power and information in SME lending

Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are informationally opaque and bank dependent. In SME lending, banks largely rely on soft information, because the scale and scope of hard information are limited. We analyze whether and how hard and soft information affects the borrower??s bargaining power vis-à-vis its bank. We use the fact that, for a given credit rating, certain borrowers obtain better loan terms than others to define measures of relative bargaining power. Using SME loan data from the USA and Germany, we find that more favorable soft information (management skills and character) increases borrower bargaining power. We also show that more favorable soft than hard information improves borrower bargaining power. The results are not driven by manipulation or statistical limitations of the credit ratings. Our study suggests that soft information represents an important and direct determinant of borrower bargaining power, affecting the outcomes of the loan contracting process.     

Leverage made at home: Investors' margin loan usage and firm leverage

The “homemade leverage” conjecture by Modigliani and Miller (1958) implies that firm leverage and investors' leverage are substitutes. Using the data of margin loans by Chinese stock investors, we find that investors take significantly fewer margin loans on a stock when the company announces new bank loans. This effect is entirely driven by investors' margin loan repayment upon announcements, and is stronger for firms with higher institutional ownership or lower leverage. The findings suggest that investors undo the change in firm leverage by adjusting margin loans usage, supporting the “homemade leverage” conjecture.     

Loan guarantees: Costs of default and benefits to small firms

Governments of most countries seek to encourage Small and Medium Sized Enterprise (SME) growth and the job creation that many believe is fostered by such growth. Substantive growth usually requires expansion capital. It is often perceived that compared with larger firms, SMEs face disproportionately less access to the debt capital they need for start-up, growth, and survival. Consequently, governments and trade associations have often intervened in credit markets by taking on the role of guarantor of loans that financial institutions advance to SMEs. For example, the Small Business Administration in the United States provides guarantees of loans made by banks to qualifying small firms. Similar schemes are in effect in, among other countries, Canada, Japan, the U.K., Korea, and Germany. Trade associations take on such roles in France, Spain, and other nations.Loans that support the expansion of small enterprises may convey significant benefits to the borrowing firms and, through job creation and retention, to the rest of society. However, to the extent that some borrowers are unable to meet the repayment obligations of their debt, guarantors also face material real costs of honoring their guarantee to the lenders. Loan guarantee programs are designed in a variety of ways. Often these programs do not appear to reflect guidance from economic theory or experience. This paper draws on empirical evidence to compare costs with benefits. In addition, it uses the results and economic theory to provide some guidance for the design of loan guarantee programs. Finally, the study shows that loan guarantee programs can be an effective means of supporting start-up, growth, and survival of new and risky enterprises. The work finds that substantial total and incremental job creation may be attributed to the Canadian loan guarantee program.The paper reviews previous attempts to conduct cost-benefit analyses of loan guarantee programs. It finds wide variation, internationally, in default rates. Published data suggests default rates vary from less than 5% (Germany) to more than 40% (U.K.). The empirical analysis reported here focuses on the Canadian implementation of loan guarantees, the Small Business Loans Act (SBLA). Findings include (1) loan guarantees granted under the terms of the SBLA provide an extremely efficient means of job creation, with very low estimated costs per job; (2) default rates are higher for newer firms, increase with the amount of funds borrowed, and vary widely by sector (borrowers in the retail and accommodation, and food and beverage sectors were significantly more likely to default than borrowers in other sectors); and (3) the widening eligibility to larger firms and to larger loans may not be well advised and is inconsistent with the goals of the program. Moreover, reducing the loan ceiling would arguably discourage fraudulent applications while servicing those SMEs most in need of early-stage capital.In addition, analysis of the lenders' motives suggests that default rates on the portfolio of guaranteed loans and, therefore, the costs of honoring guarantees, are particularly sensitive to the level of the guarantee. Small reductions in the level of the guarantee (for example, guaranteeing 80% of principal and accrued interest instead of 85%) could lead to substantial reductions in default rates.Debate persists in economic theory about whether or not government intervention in the credit market is warranted, in spite of the findings that loan guarantees seem to make positive contributions. Further analysis of these issues is advised.     

Incentives for Loan Repayments: Evidence from a Randomized Field Study

This field experiment tests an innovative approach for helping automobile loan borrowers make their loan payments on time. Borrowers were randomly assigned to a loan with an interest rate reduction after three on‐time payments; borrowers assigned to this loan show fewer late payments compared to a control group. While the financial incentive of the interest rate reduction was small, the offer of a rate reduction appears to result in borrowers attending to due dates. This result illustrates that lenders can use simple mechanisms to encourage more positive repayment patterns among borrowers with a history of late payments.     

商业性个人住房贷款运作的几个问题及对策

商业性住房按揭贷款是商业银行个人信贷业务的主要品种之一,各家商业银行都十分重视此项业务的拓展。但在具体操作时,由于种种原因,商业银行也遇到了一些特殊问题,如按揭购买的房屋因购买者遇突发事项而要求退房,银行如何制定合理的收回贷款程序;银行如何处理好与保险公司的关系;如何帮助购房者选择合适的还款方式等等。这些问题需要银行提前做好准备,否则将影响到该项业务的正常运作。     

Investigating a neglected part of Schumpeter’s creative army: what drives new-to-the-market innovation in micro-enterprises?

This paper tests a theoretical model to evaluate e-business capability and value in the fast growth small-to-medium enterprise (SME) context. We propose that e-business value depends on how fast growth SMEs deploy IT resources, strategic planning, culture, and business partnerships to develop e-business capability and business process competence which help these companies to achieve outstanding business performance. Structural equation modelling is employed to test our theoretical conceptualization on a cohort of 310 Australian fast growth SMEs across different industrial sectors. The results show that IT resources, strategic IT alignment, market orientation, and business partnerships do contribute significantly and indirectly to SME performance through the development of e-business capability and business process competence. Our study provides an initial empirical evidence to understand the relationship between IT and entrepreneurial SME performance. These findings have important implications for research and business practices.     

Limitations of the Theories of Nonprofits and Benchmarking Services Delivery Dimensions of Poverty-Reduction Programs in Rural Bangladesh

Even though both contract failure and consumer control theories of nonprofits stress the need for monitoring the performance of the firms, these models fail to offer any guidelines on how to do so. In general, the performance of poverty-reduction projects are assessed on amounts of loan disbursement, repayment rates, area of coverage, and financial sustainability. However, performance assessment based on the efficiency of service delivery has in the past been ignored even though the importance of efficient service delivery in poverty-reduction programs is well recognized in the literature and in the theories of nonprofits. Due to this specific lacuna, benchmarking in the aspects of efficient service delivery has never been applied. Based on primary data collected from 78 villages in Bangladesh from September to December 2009, this article develops a two-dimensional multi-item service delivery index to compare the efficiency of participating organizations in the stated programs in order to set industry benchmark values for each item of the index.     

The governance environment and innovative SMEs

This paper examines the impact of the governance environment on SME performance, concentrating on differences between innovators and non-innovators. A poor environment is related to lower profits and sales for SME innovators than non-innovators. Using a complementary indicator, SME innovators tend to have higher sales and profits when courts are perceived to be strong. On the other hand, the governance environment does not impact large innovative and non-innovative firm performance differently. Latin America and the Caribbean is a region with many entrepreneurs but few innovators. The region also has a larger proportion of smaller firms compared to other regions. In this context, lessons on SME constraints related to governance are important for developing enabling policies.     

Defaults in bank loans to SMEs during the financial crisis

We investigate the role of (business) collateral and (personal) guarantees alongside small and medium enterprise (SME), lending bank and loan characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sectors, and geographic locations while controlling for unobserved time effects in predicting default at the peak of the financial crisis. First, we find a positive relation between collateral and default, and a negative relation between guarantees and default. Second, we find a negative relation between the joint influence of collateral and high credit score, and a positive relation between the joint influence of collateral and low credit score and default. We also find a negative relation between the joint influence of guarantees and high credit score. These findings are relevant for SME policies aimed at facilitating access to credit, reducing the cost of borrowing, and decreasing default; risk management of banks; and the application of theories of financial economics in the context of a financial crisis.     

Ethics-focused dynamic capabilities: a small business perspective

Our analysis of survey data of US small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) explores (1) whether firms have ‘dynamic’ capabilities that change their ethics-focused operational capabilities; (2) what effects those dynamic capabilities have on both ethical and competitive performance; and, (3) whether those effects are contingent on a firm’s entrepreneurial characteristics. Our survey reveals that about a quarter of SMEs self-report high levels of these ethics-focused dynamic capabilities. We use hierarchical OLS to analyze the survey data to find that the general effect of these capabilities is positive on an SME’s ethical performance, and that the performance effects are contingent on an SME’s degree of entrepreneurial orientation and sensitivity to changes in the business context. The main implication is that the extent of heterogeneity in types, roles, and performance effects of ‘higher-than-operations-level’ capabilities is likely underestimated in current dynamic capabilities theory and application.