Inflation in developing Asia

Inflation emerged as the single biggest macroeconomic challenge confronting developing Asia during 2007–2008, although inflationary pressures have abated since the second half of 2008 due to the global crisis. This paper empirically examines the relative importance of different sources of inflation in developing Asia. In particular, it tests the widely held view that the region's inflationary surge during 2007–2008 was primarily the result of external price factors such as oil and food shocks. Our central empirical result is that, contrary to popular misconception, Asia's inflation is largely homegrown and has arisen due to excess aggregate demand and inflationary expectations, rather than external price shocks. This suggests monetary policy will remain a powerful tool in fighting inflation in Asia, as well as in defusing the risks of deflation.     

"东亚的外国直接投资:经验与启示"国际研讨会综述

由世界银行研究所和中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所共同主办的“东亚的外国直接投资--经验与启示”国际学术研讨会近期在北京召开。来自日本、中国香港、中国、新加坡、马来西亚、菲律宾、越南等10多个国家和地区该领域的资深专家学者与会。研讨会的议题包括三个部分:一、东亚FDI的总体情况;二、东亚FDI来源国的案例分析;三、东亚FDI接受国的案例分析。来自新加坡国际问题研究所的谢陈秀瑜博士做了《外国直接投资与经济发展:东亚的经验与启示》的主题报告。投资来源地选取了日本(世界银行顾问TsutomuShibata做报告,评论人为国务院发展研究中心对外经济部部长赵晋平)和中国香港(香港岭南大学的陈坤耀博士,评论人为中山大学岭南学院院长许罗丹)作为案例;投资接受国的案例为中国(中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所所长余永定博士,评论人为南开大学泰达学院院长冼国明)、菲律宾(菲律宾的MyrnaS.Austria博士,评论人为南京大学的沈坤荣教授)和越南(日本早稻田大学的陈文寿教授,评论人为北京师范大学的贺立平教授)。这里刊登部分与会中国学者对主要报告的观点介绍及其评论。     

Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry

This paper investigates the factors associated with foreign direct investment “surges” and “stops”, defined as sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of foreign direct investment inflows to the developing world and differentiated based on whether these events are led by waves in greenfield investments or mergers and acquisitions. Greenfield-led surges and stops occur more frequently than mergers-and-acquisitions-led ones and different factors are associated with the onset of the two types of events. Global liquidity is the factor significantly and positively associated with a surge, regardless of its kind, while a global economic growth slowdown and a surge in the preceding year are the main factors associated with a stop. Greenfield-led surges and stops are more likely in low-income countries and mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges are less likely in resource-rich countries than elsewhere in the developing world. Global growth accelerations and increases in financial openness, domestic economic and financial instability are associated with mergers-and-acquisitions-led surges but not with greenfield-led ones. These results are particularly relevant for developing countries where FDI flows are the major type of capital flows and suggest that developing countries’ macroeconomic vulnerability increases following periods of increased global liquidity. As countries develop they typically become more exposed to merger-and-acquisition-led surges, which are more likely than greenfield-led surges and stops to be short-lived and associated with domestic macroeconomic policies.     

东亚外商直接投资、技术进步与经济均衡增长

本文利用结构关联方法,实证分析1985~2004年东亚吸引外资是否会带来技术进步,并以此推动经济均衡增长。东亚经济均衡增长经历了三次路径转移,技术进步决定经济均衡增长路径的动态调整,但技术进步的作用具有时滞性。东亚需要增强吸收和转换技术的能力。     

日本在亚洲对外直接投资的地域分布研究

当前日本对外直接投资研究文献多侧重于跨过公司的经济动机,往往忽略了投资所在地的社会、经济以及地理等因素的综合影响。根据古典引力理论和地缘经济学中的经济潜力观点,社会、经济及地理等多种因素影响了对外直接投资决策。实证分析结果表明,若干社会及地缘经济变量能够较好地解释日本在亚洲的对外直接投资的地域分布。     

China's emergence and the reorganisation of trade flows in Asia

The emergence of China has intensified the international segmentation of production processes within Asia, but has not created an autonomous engine for the region's trade, as Asia still depends on outside markets for its final goods exports. The reorganisation of production has weakened the position of the advanced economies in Asia's trade, but up to now has not severely affected the position of the emerging Asian economies. However, the deterioration of China's terms of trade raises the question of the sustainability of its recent growth strategy.     

东亚金融一体化程度研究

本文通过使用汇率波动率、人均消费增长率的相关度、未抛补的利率平价偏差、双边贸易强度、利率相关度这五个指标来反映中国、日本、韩国以及中国香港、中国台湾任意两个经济体之间金融一体化的程度,并采用主成分分析的方法计算出了任意两个经济体之间金融一体化程度的大小。最后,本文依照分析结果结合目前东亚金融合作现状、东亚经济体面临的国际国内经济环境提出了促进东亚金融一体化的政策建议。     

全球经济失衡态势下的东亚地区资本流动

在全球经济失衡背景下,东亚地区的资本流动呈现出与以往完全不同的特征,一方面是私人资本不断流入东亚地区且结构均衡,另一方面是大量的资本又从官方储备以购买美国国债的渠道流出东亚地区。今后东亚地区的这种资本流动将受到官方外汇储备变动、美国利率的变化、美元贬值、东亚汇率及其制度的调整等因素的影响。     

Complex vertical FDI and firm heterogeneity: Evidence from East Asia

This study statistically tests the validity of the mechanics of complex vertical foreign direct investment (C-VFDI) in Japanese machinery FDI to East Asia by estimating a multiple-spatial lag model. From a theoretical perspective regarding C-VFDI, the production activity of affiliates in a given country is positively related to the production activity in neighboring countries that have large differences in factor prices with the given country. Furthermore, high-productivity firms are likely to choose a C-VFDI strategy. Our empirical results show no robust geographical relationship among affiliates’ activities. However, the significantly positive relationship in wage differentials among those activities is found only for high-productivity firms.     

Time zone-related continuity and synchronization effects on bilateral trade flows

This paper finds the first empirical evidence of the time zone-related continuity effects on international trade. Several recent studies in the fragmentation/distance literatures provide theoretical justification for both positive (continuity) and negative (synchronization) effects of increased time zone differences on global export flows. This paper explicitly tests for the presence of both effects using bilateral manufacturing and service trade for 20 countries and 56 partner countries from 2000 to 2008. Results consistent with the theoretical expectations are found using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. The general time zone difference effect on total exports is negative, suggesting the synchronization effect dominates. However, for services trade, the positive continuity effect is noted, indicating that time zones affect manufacturing and service trades differently. These results are robust to changes in the time zone, distance, and language measures, as well as alternate estimation techniques.     

Understanding India's Regional Initiatives with East and Southeast Asia

In recent years, India has concluded several bilateral and regional agreements with countries in East and Southeast Asia. This paper discusses four motivating factors underlying these initiatives: (i) the recognition by other Asian countries of India's growing importance as an investment and export market, as a supplier of manpower, and as a counterbalance to China's growing regional dominance; (ii) India's recognition of Asia's growing importance in the world economy; (iii) India's desire to prevent its marginalisation and to create a sphere of political and economic influence within East and Southeast Asia; and (iv) geo-political considerations such as securing energy interests, and addressing transport and connectivity concerns and long-term political and sub-regional stability objectives. India's approach to these integration efforts has been largely defensive and its future integration initiatives are likely to be more geo-political and strategic in nature.     

Behavioral and empirical perspectives on FDI: International capital allocation across Asia

We investigate Asia's recent experience in international capital allocation through flows of foreign direct investment. A calibrated general equilibrium model with a new capital flow modelling component is applied to highlight underlying relationships between a Heckscher-Ohlin (labor and capital) endowment perspective and such considerations as human capital, productivity, endogenous growth, and institutional behavior. Our results support the argument that all these factors played a role in Asia's recent growth, to different degrees in different countries, with complex relationships to investment incentives. In addition, new directions for further research in the FDI-growth linkages policy area are identified.     

When should developing countries use bilateral state trading?

Less developed countries can sometimes benefit by preferential trade agreements if they exercise market power. But partial preferential tariffs or quotas are illegal under GATT. We suggest three types of bilateral trade agreements which may profitably be used as legal substitutes. The most likely partners for such agreements are the East European planned economies. Terms of trade and trade structure can be improved without risking domination and dependence. Suggested negotiating strategy and tactics are outlined. Literature on experience with bilateral and state trading is considered favourable to this policy, though LDCs have up to now traded little with the smaller Soviet-type economies.     

中国吸引外资的浪潮对东南亚国家和地区的影响

中国吸引外资的浪潮引起了人们普遍的忧虑:中国吸引外资的浪潮是否会导致流入东南亚其他国家和地区的外资逐渐减少。本文在假定外资的供应是在有弹性的前提下,利用对外投资区位决定因素的模型,运用固定效应分析方法来检验中国吸引外资与东南亚吸引外资间的关系其结果显示,在1986年至2001年间,中国吸引外资的增长实际上提高了邻国经济吸引外资的能力, 而不是排挤了邻国外资的流入。这很可能是因为各国并没有在市场寻求型对外直接投资和资源寻求型对外直接投资之间竞争,唯一具有竞争性的部分很可能是出口加工。由于中国在电子产品方面恰恰与其他国家互补,因而与其他国家正在形成区域生产一体化体系。中国在其他的出口导向型产业中可能出现吸引外资的替补效应,但是这种效应还不足以影响到结果。     

Technological Capability and FDI in Asia: Firm‐level Relationships among Japanese Manufacturers*

The present paper reexamines the relationship between technological capabilities and FDI decisions at the firm level. The data cover 118 300 Japanese firms in all manufacturing industries. The R&D of Japanese firms has a noticeably weaker relationship with FDI in Asia than with FDI in industrial countries. This finding is confirmed to be robust even when alternative estimation techniques are used and when R&D expenditure data are replaced by patent data. The estimation results also reveal non‐negligible fixed entry costs for FDI, a finding consistent with the observation that only approximately 2 percent of the firms invest abroad.     

在东北亚经济竞争中我国自由贸易区港发展对策

一、当前环东北亚经济发展形势与竞争特点 近两年,我国经济稳步持续增长,成为世界经济发展的亮点;韩国在摆脱金融危机后,经济发展态势迅猛;日本GDP占亚洲的三分之一,是亚洲经济舞台上的主要角色;朝鲜也采取了市场经济的改革措施,设立了新义洲经济特区;俄罗斯经济有强劲的上升势头,为加强东北亚地区的经济合作提供了条件:蒙古经济也连续5年正增长.     

Determinants of pollution abatement in developing countries: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia

Developing countries, pa?ticularly those in Asia, are fast adopting industrial pollution control standards similar to those in developed countries. Formal regulation has been greatly hampered, however, by the absence of clear and legally binding regulations; limited institutional capacity; lack of appropriate equipment and trained personnel; and inadequate information on emissions. One would predict highly pollution-intensive production under such conditions. Our research, however, has uncovered strongly contradictory evidence. Despite weak or nonexistent formal regulation, there are many clean plants in the developing countries of South and Southeast Asia. Of course, there are also many plants which are among the world's most serious polluters. What explains such extreme interplant variation? This paper reviews evidence drawn from three empirical studies of plant-level abatement practices conducted 1992–1994.The analyses test the importance of plant characteristics, economic considerations and external pressure in determining environmental performance. The results consistently show that pollution intensity is negatively associated with scale, productive efficiency, and the use of new process technology. It is strongly and positively associated with public ownership, but foreign ownership has no significant effect once other plant characteristics are taken into account. Among external sources of pressure, community action, or informal regulation, emerges as a clear source of interplant differences in all three studies. The results suggest that local income and education are powerful predictors of the effectiveness of informal regulation. They also show that existing formal regulation has measurably beneficial effects, even when it is quite weakly developed.     

Exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI): Japanese investment in Asia, 1987–2008

The paper estimates the impact of exchange rate movements on foreign direct investment (FDI). By using the panel data of Japanese FDI flows to nine dynamic Asian economies during 1987–2008, the paper finds that (i) FDI declined with a depreciation of the yen against host country currencies; (ii) it increased with exchange rate volatility; and (iii) it was little affected by the Asian financial crisis, especially when disguised financial flows were removed from the data. A novel result concerns the negative response of FDI to the third moment of monthly exchange rate changes: the volume of FDI was smaller when the distribution was positively skewed (i.e., when the yen was biased towards relatively large depreciation shocks). If skewness proxies for expected mean-reverting changes, this supports the idea that source country investors care about the future stream of revenues and returns denominated in their own currency. These results are robust, with other standard control variables having statistically significant coefficients with expected signs.