开放合作创新视角下基于云模式的物流资源一体化集成决策研究

基于开放合作创新的思路，文中提出一种全新的物流资源运作管理模式---“云模式”，探讨在开放合作创新的平台上，对多种紧密耦合且相互制约的物流资源进行同步协同和整合的方法与途径。“云模式”的本质是通过松弛物流资源与其所有者之间的归属关系，为社会全体物流资源提供一个开放的平台。物流资源可以通过这个平台，以合作的方式有机的集成在一起，从而实现资源的优化配置、提高物流资源的利用率，降低社会物流的总成本，提高客户对物流服务满意度的目标。文中的研究契合了当前政府相关职能部门和企业在管理决策上的实际需要。     

库存-运输系统整合优化Excel模型求解

提出了库存-运输整合优化模型,将库存与运输问题看作一个系统整体考虑,比传统的将库存、运输单独考虑的物流成本要少的多。通过Excel模型的建立与求解,展现了Excel软件在规划求解方面的不可忽视的作用。     

库存-运输系统整合优化Excel模型求解

提出了库存-运输整合优化模型,将库存与运输问题看作一个系统整体考虑,比传统的将库存、运输单独考虑的物流成本要少的多.通过Excel模型的建立与求解,展现了Excel软件在规划求解方面的不可忽视的作用.     

供应商管理库存利润模型分析

研究了供应商管理库存对供应链的影响。对有确定需求、没有初始库存、不允许库存短缺、需求量一定且生产需一定时间T的一种畅销商品，建立了供应商管理库存的供应链模型。本文通过对此模型的进一步分析．证明了在供应商管理库存短期激励下，供应商管理库存将减少整个供应链的总的库存相关成本，增加整个供应链的总利润。但在一定的匹配条件下会增加供应商的库存相关成本。所以，在实施供应商管理库存的起始阶段．应该首先考虑供应商和买方库存系统之间严重不匹配的商品。同时又分别讨论了在不同条件下零售商通过提高购买价格对供应商做出一定补偿的问题。最后．通过计算实例说明了上述结果。     

库存与运输整合优化问题的研究现状

基于对大量相关文献和研究动态的分析，概括了库存与运输整合优化的定义和特点，指出了已有研究中存在的某些不足和缺憾，对今后这一课题的研究提供了借鉴。     

库存-整合优化问题研究综述

库存-运输整合优化（Inventory—Transportation Integrated Optimization，ITIO）问题是供应链协调的重要方面。库存与运输“效益悖反”的特点增加了ITIO问题的复杂性。文章将对库存-运输整合优化的研究现状进行综述，以期总结成果，并找出新的研究方向。     

流行服装库存及配送整合优化

从流行服装库存管理和配送管理中存在的问题出发，分析了影响流行服装库存及配送整合优化的主要因素，阐述了流行服装库存及配送整合优化的必要性，并对流行服装库存及配送整合优化的具体策略进行了探讨，对服装经营企业提高库存管理与配送管理效率有借鉴意义。     

供应链中库存模式的比较分析

通过建立传统库存模式、VMI库存模式和由VMI发展出的一种库存模式的数学模型，分析后两种模式对供应链中生产商成本、零售商成本以及总成本的影响。通过分析发现，后两种模式对各项成本的影响和成本参数有一定的关系。随着参数的变化，它们对同一成本的影响结果也不相同，这为企业的库存模式选择提供了参考依据。     

集群式库存管理

本文针对产业集群这一特征，提出了集群式库存管理技术。且该文建立了基于集群式库存管理的模型。根据该模型推导出了在产业集群中生产商分开管理原材料库存和库存管理公司管理原材料库存的库存相关成本．并进行了比较。得出如下重要结论：基于集群式库存管理的原材料库存管理的库存相关成本得到了明显降低。     

粤港物流成本优化决策分析——广东港资企业物流成本优化研究

广东是我国重要的制造业基地和对外开放的南大门，其物流业的发展对中国其他地区起着极大的带动和示范作用。因此．研究粤港物流成本的优化控制对促进粤港两地的经济发展和我国的对外贸易有着深远的意义。本文先对粤港物流运输成本和仓储成本进行了深入分析，然后构建了粤港物流成本优化控制的非线性规划模型，最后以实证研究方法对粤港物流成本控制进行了优化规划，并得出了优化规划的一些基本结论。     

A financial accelerator in the business sector of a macroeconometric model of a small open economy

We have incorporated a financial accelerator mechanism operating through investments in the business sector in a dynamic macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy. In this new and amended model aggregated credit and equity prices are determined simultaneously in a system characterized by a two-directional contemporaneous causal link, which has been designed and estimated by a new procedure for simultaneous structural model design. Combined with a mechanism where credit and asset prices are mutually influenced by real investments, this creates a financial accelerator amplified by a credit-asset price spiral. Simulations illustrate how the introduction of a financial accelerator significantly reinforces and extends the economic cycles in projections and forecasts, in particular when confronted by a severe shock. Furthermore, monetary policy has a markedly stronger effect in the short and medium term, while the impact of fiscal policy is affected to a relatively small degree as it is more remotely linked to financial markets.     

A measure of regional influence with the analytic network process

The metropolitan region is commonly defined by a socio-spatial network of urban nodes that are linked in territory and function. Such a network is differentiated by size and dominance of the linked nodes, characterized by physical or virtual flows of a wide-ranging variety. The analytic network process (ANP) is a multi-criteria analytic method that measures the influence or dominance of the nodes in a network with feedback. We illustrate how ANP determines county rank as a measure of influence in a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) defined by its interrelated socio-economic and spatial elements qualitatively and quantitatively. We compare the ANP results to similar measures of regional influence in the literature.     

Assigning Patents to Industries: Tests of the Yale Technology Concordance

We describe a method to predict patent counts disaggregated by industry, using available data on patenting by technology field. This method—the Yale Technology Concordance (YTC)—exploits a data set of patents that have been individually assigned by the Canadian Patent Office to both an industry and a technology field. The procedure for predicting patents by industry is developed as a statistical model so that the standard errors of the predictions can be estimated. The YTC is tested on several subsets of Canadian patents by comparing out-of-sample predictions with industry assignments made by the Canadian Patent Office. We find that the predictions of patents by industry are quite accurate for the subset of patents form US inventors. The prediction errors are much greater for the subset of patents granted or published after 1989. This suggests that the relationship between the technology fields and industries has shifted in a way that the procedure does not capture. Nonetheless, predictions from the YTC do appear to give a reasonably accurate picture of the pattern of patenting by industry.     

Simple fair division of a square

Suppose we are given a cake represented by the unit interval to be divided among agents evaluating the pieces of the cake by nonatomic probability measures. It is known that we can divide the unit interval into contiguous and connected pieces and assign them to the agents in such a way that the values of the pieces are equal according to the individual agents measures. Such division is said to be equitable and simple. In this paper we show that an equitable and simple division also exists in the case of dividing two-dimensional cake represented by the unit square. In this case, by simple division we mean dividing the unit square firstly by horizontal cuts, and then partition the resulting rectangles by vertical cuts. We give a method of obtaining a proportional and simple division of this cake. Furthermore, we prove the existence of proportional, equitable and simple division.     

Illegal waste disposal: Enforcement actions and decentralized environmental policy

Environmental non-compliance is affected by the decentralized shaping of environmental policy by local governments and enforcement actions by public bodies. Illegal waste disposal is examined in a relevant national case, by means of an original regionally disaggregated panel dataset for Italy, a country which witnesses heterogeneous environmental performances across regions and a decentralized policy system. Our empirical analysis produces two main insights of strong policy interest. First, commitment to a more stringent waste policy tends to increase illegal disposal of waste. Second, a nonlinear bell shaped relationship exists between the number of inspections and the quantity of illegal disposal. The key message is that deterrence might only result after a relatively high level of controls is implemented.     

Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth

The literature suggests that the dispersion of agents’ forecasts of an event flows from heterogeneity of beliefs and models. Using a data set of fixed event point forecasts of UK GDP growth by a panel of independent forecasters published by HM Treasury, we investigate three questions concerning this dispersion: (a) Are agent’s beliefs randomly distributed or do agents fall into groups with similar beliefs? (b) as agents revise their forecasts, what roles are played by their previous and consensus forecasts? and (c) is an agent’s private information of persistent value? We find that agents fall into four clusters, a large majority, a few pessimists, and two idiosyncratic agents. Our proposed model of forecast revisions shows agents are influenced positively by a change in the consensus forecast and negatively influenced by the previous distance of their forecast from the consensus. We show that the forecasts of a minority of agents significantly lead the consensus.     

Maxmin expected utility with additivity on unambiguous events

This paper provides a model of beliefs representation in which ambiguity and unambiguity are endogenously distinguished in the maxmin expected utility model of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). Specifically, I first extend it by getting a representation of beliefs such that the probabilistic beliefs over each ambiguous event are represented by a nondegenerate interval, while the ones over each unambiguous event are represented by a number. I then suggest a behavioral definition of ambiguity. It provides a choice theoretical foundation for the Knightian distinction between ambiguity and unambiguity.     

Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates

We perform out-of-sample predictions on several dollar exchange rate returns by using time-delay embedding techniques and a local linear predictor. We compared our predictions with those by a mean value predictor. Some of our predictions of the exchange rate returns outperform the predictions of the same series by the mean value predictor. However, these improvements were not statistically significant. Another interesting result in this paper which was obtained by using a recently developed technique of nonlinear dynamics is that all exchange rate return series we tested have a very high embedding dimension. Additionally, evidence indicates that these series are likely generated by high dimensional systems with measurement noise or by high dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems, that is, nonlinear deterministic systems with dynamic noise.     

ADVERTISING'S ELUSIVE ECONOMIC RATIONALE: PUBLIC POLICY AND TAXATION

Advertising and its effects have been debated for well over a century. In the last few decades a generally sceptical view of the benefits of advertising has been overturned by a series of academic advances in economics that detail a variety of ways in which advertising may affect the economy and society. This academic work has however been paralleled by a growing popular and political opposition to advertising and its social effects. In this paper, the positive economic case for advertising is challenged by an assessment of the main channels of its influence and by a review of the associated empirical findings on its economic and wider impact. A policy response of limiting the tax deductibility of business advertising is explored.     

在创新中利用博弈模型进行政府行为的力度控制

通过分析得出政府、创新企业和科技中介机构三者之间存在着一个三方博弈,并通过建立模型来推出博弈矩阵,并且说明政府可以通过采取一定行为来使这个博弈达到均衡。政府采取的行为力度的控制点由博弈模型可以推导出来。