中国短期跨境资本流动影响因素实证研究：2009—2016

2010年以来,新兴市场国家出现跨境资本流入持续放缓趋势。中国国际收支资本项目发生较大变化,大规模短期跨境资本流动对内外经济带来巨大冲击。本文将人民币跨境贸易结算和直接投资净额纳入到短期资本流动规模的估算当中,构建以月度数据为基础的VAR模型,分析2009年以来中国短期跨境资本流动的影响因素。实证结果显示,房地产市场收益率、汇率因素、国际投资者避险情绪和经济增长率对中国短期跨境资本流动影响较大,而利差和股市收益率的影响相对较小。为熨平短期资本流动的影响,应当稳定经济增长,进一步推进汇率制度改革,审慎开放资本账户,加强央行与公众政策沟通,稳定市场预期。     

国际短期资本流动对我国证券市场影响实证分析

本文主要从国际短期资本流动的角度,对2006年以来流入中国的国际短期资本给中国股票市场带来的潜在的风险和冲击进行了实证的分析,并在此基础上提出了对国际短期资本流动进行管理的政策建议。     

国际短期资本流入对我国经济的影响

20世纪90年代以来,国际资本流动格局呈现自由化发展,相当规模的国际资本也流入我国境内,在我国的经济金融体系运行中扮演着日益重要的角色,而其中最为值得关注的是国际短期资本的流入。本文主要从自21世纪以来国际短期资本流入我国的原因、途径、影响过程等进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了对国际短期资本流动进行管理的政策建议。     

银行最优资本结构问题分析

本文在一个两时期模型中分别分析了无资本监管和实行资本监管时银行最优资本结构的选择。在这两种情况下,银行都可以选择一个最优资本结构以实现其价值最大化。在无资本监管时,当边际收益等于边际成本时,银行的资本结构达到最优;在实行资本监管的情况下,银行的最优资本数量是无监管时的最优资本数量再加上一个缓冲资本。     

银行最优资本结构问题分析

本文在一个两时期模型中分别分析了无资本监管和实行资本监管时银行最优资本结构的选择.在这两种情况下,银行都可以选择一个最优资本结构以实现其价值最大化.在无资本监管时,当边际收益等于边际成本时,银行的资本结构达到最优;在实行资本监管的情况下,银行的最优资本数量是无监管时的最优资本数量再加上一个缓冲资本.     

泰国取消资本管制措施

3月3日起，泰国央行正式取消了针对短期资本流入所实施的管制措施。这项从2006年12月起为遏制泰铢升值而实行的资本管制措施规定，短期流入资本须在泰国央行留存30％的准备金，且存放期限为1年。一些股市分析人士表示泰国资本管制措施的废除可能会推动该国股市成为2008年亚洲行情较好的股市之一。     

资本变局与房价走势

一、资本流动与房价走势 （一）我国资本流动轨迹与房价走势 1998年以来，我国一直保持资本账户顺差．外商直接投资（FDI）项下有大规模的资本流入，但1998-2001年因东南亚金融危机引发了资本外逃，致使我国资本连续三年净流出。2001年因资本账户巨额顺差才使得我国资本净流出状况得以改善。2002年，我国经济从东南亚危机阴影中走出，并进入了快速发展通道．人民币有强烈的升值预期．资本大规模流入。除了2006年有少量的资本净流出外，其他年份资本都是净流入。同时．反映游资（HM）流动的净误差与遗漏也于2002发生了根本逆转，由1998年187亿美元的净流出到2007年1170亿美元的净流入。     

短期国际资本流动新趋势、对我国的影响及其防范

当前,全球资本流动总量小幅但不均衡回升,未来有可能缓慢增长;发展中国家资本市场的发展正在逐渐改变国际资本流动的结构;国际金融市场参与者的角色发生很大的变化;国际资本向新兴经济体特别是亚洲新兴经济体大量流动.在短期国际资本的持续冲击下,新兴经济体已有形成资产泡沫的风险,并且在未来仍有继续扩大的趋势.对于中国而言,热钱在中国的投机空间有限,短期内大规模持续流入的条件还不具备,温和流入并时有反复可能将成长期趋势.要摆脱国际热钱大规模流动带来的包括人民币升值压力在内的一系列困扰,必须采取疏堵结合的方式:一方面,采取有效的防御性措施,监控各类热钱,加强流入管制;另一方面,应重视疏导的作用,抑制泡沫膨胀,吸引中长期国际资本,防范和限制短期资本泛滥.     

中国上市公司最优资本结构统计分析

文章分析了最优资本结构的几种衡量标准，认为市场价值是衡量最优资本结构的最佳标准。以2000-2005年中国上市公司为样本，对最优资本结构的年度差异和行业差异进行了统计检验，给出了分年度、分行业的最优资本结构，并封统计结果进行了讨论。     

国际资本流动的新特点

国家计委经济研究所所长陈东琪认为 ,在经济全球化加速过程中 ,国际资本流动出现了一些新的特点 :一是短期性投机资本活跃 ,资本流动的速度加快 ,流动周期缩短 ;二是高技术资本剩余增加 ,跨国公司资本向外扩张的要求增加 ;三是资本流入的技术用途增加 ,也就是技术资本投资扩张加快 ;四是在ＦＤＩ(外商直接投资 )流入中 ,并购资本流入份额增加 ,股权投资规模扩大 ,但在前期快速增长后会面临短期调整 ;五是流入发达国家的资本有所减少 ,更多国际资本正在加快流向发展中国家和地区 ;六是从区域分布上看 ,国际资本流入亚洲地区的数量正在逐渐增…     

Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987–2007. Episodes of large capital inflows are often associated with real exchange rate appreciations and deteriorating current account balances. More importantly, such episodes tend to be accompanied by an acceleration of GDP growth, but afterwards growth has often dropped significantly. A comprehensive assessment of various policy responses to the large inflow episodes leads to three major conclusions. First, keeping public expenditure growth steady during episodes can help limit real currency appreciation and foster better growth outcomes in their aftermath. Second, resisting nominal exchange rate appreciation through sterilized intervention is likely to be ineffective when the influx of capital is persistent. Third, tightening capital controls has not in general been associated with better outcomes.     

Foreign capital inflows and poverty linkages in South Asia: Do the forms of capital inflows matter?

The relationship between foreign direct investment and poverty reduction has received modest attention in the empirical literature. However, little is known about the relative significant impact of different forms of capital inflows on poverty reduction. This study attempts to investigate the impact of different forms of capital inflows (foreign direct inflows, portfolio equity and portfolio debt inflows) on poverty reduction in major South Asian economies during the post-reform period. The capital inflows-poverty nexus is explored using panel econometric methods robust to cross-sectional dependence. Our empirical results show that while portfolio equity inflows exert a favorable impact on poverty reduction, foreign direct inflows and debt inflows fail to influence poverty. The panel causality results demonstrate that portfolio equity inflows also support poverty alleviation via stimulating economic growth and trade openness. The findings of our study highlight the importance of considering the differential welfare impacts of different forms of capital inflows while implementing capital account liberalization.     

人力资本投资结构及其经济增长效应——基于扩展MRW模型的内生增长理论与实证研究

本文针对已有的关于人力资本投资的理论研究往往只关注人力资本投资数量而忽视人力投资结构研究的现状，把教育和健康看作是两种资本，分析了人力资本投资的具体构成形式。假设人力资本由教育资本和健康资本按照Cobb-Douglas生产技术形式组合生成。通过扩展Mankiw、Romer和Weil（1992）模型（简称MRW模型），构建了一个内生经济增长模型。理论分析结果表明，人力资本投资结构制约着经济增长，人力资本投资数量和结构都对经济产生重要影响。最后，本文以理论分析为基础构建计量经济模型，利用1978-2004年中国29个省市的面板数据实证分析了教育资本和健康资本对中国经济增长的影响。     

The determinants of capital inflows: Does opacity of recipient country explain the flows?

This paper examines the relationship between international capital flows and the opacity of recipient countries. We use the Price Waterhouse Coopers (PWC) [Price Waterhouse Coopers, 2001. The Opacity Index: A Project of the Price Waterhouse Coopers Endowment for the Study of Transparency and Sustainability] opacity index for the year 2000 and investigate its influence on three types of net international capital flows: foreign direct investment, portfolio capital and international bank lending. We find support for higher opacity leading to a reduction in capital inflows, in general. More interestingly, however, in some cases we find counterintuitive results of more capital flows when opacity relating to specific business climate increases—accounting and regulations for foreign direct investment flows, corruption and regulation for portfolio flows, and corruption and economic opacities for international lending flows. This may be because of potentially higher profit opportunities that may be present due to the greater role unofficial channels of investment practices play as these opacity indices rise. Also, we find international bank lending, in general, responded very differently from foreign direct investment and portfolio flows.     

引进外资对我国货币流通速度的影响

本研究引进外资对我国货币流通速度的影响。外资的流入大大促进了我国的出口，同时也使货币当局的对外资产迅速增加，造成潜在的货币供给压力，使利率处于较低的水平，从而使货币需求成本低下，货币流通速度下降。     

募集资金投向对公司经营业绩的影响分析——来自上市公司的证据

本文以2000年、2001年、2002年通过首次发行股票、配股和增发来募集资金的上市公司为对象,对募集资金的投向与公司经营业绩之间的关系进行研究。结果表明:上市公司募集资金正常投向的比率与上市公司的经营业绩显著正相关,正常投向中主业投资有利于公司经营业绩的提高;对外投资与公司经营业绩在第一年有显著相关关系,但不具有持续性;偿还债务与公司业绩之间有显著负相关关系。募集资金变更投向与公司经营业绩之间有显著负相关关系,募集资金变更为对外投资和募集资金闲置与公司经营业绩显著负相关。     

Capital account liberalization and foreign direct investment

We examine the impact of capital account policies on FDI inflows. Using an annual panel dataset of 83 developing and developed countries for 1984-2000, we find that capital account openness is positively but only very moderately associated with the amount of FDI inflows after controlling for other macroeconomic and institutional measures. To a large extent, other country characteristics seem to determine FDI inflows instead of capital account policies. We also find that capital controls are easily circumvented in corrupt and politically unstable regimes. We conclude that liberalizing the capital account is not sufficient to generate increases in inflows unless it is accompanied by a lower level of corruption or a decrease in political risk.     

MANAGING THE PROCESS OF REMOVING CAPITAL CONTROLS: WHAT DOES THE LITERATURE SUGGEST?

Economic theory suggests that opening the capital account should allow a country to diversify away economic shocks, increase capital inflows, expand economic growth and efficiency as well as encourage governments to pursue good policies. The empirical evidence with regard to these theoretical predictions, however, are in some instances debatable. Many studies, for example, have reported mixed results as it relates to the impact of capital account integration on growth, exchange rates, trade and policy discipline. This paper provides a review of this literature as well as some recommendations for policymakers in relation to managing the process of removing capital controls.     

中国省际资本服务测量：概念、框架和指数构建

在提出资本服务是衡量资本投入最为恰当指标的基础上,梳理了资本流量视角下基于“年龄—效率”函数和资本租赁价格的资本服务测量框架,首次测量中国省际资本服务。研究发现,1994~2010年三大地区平均资本服务从高到低依次为东部（2.86）、中部（2.77）、西部（2.67）;东部资本服务均高于全国水平,三大地区资本服务差距逐步减小。此外,资本存量总额指数增长快于资本服务,而这与资本存量总额是否高估中国资本投入密切相关。     

Public debt management and private financial development

In several developing countries, high and rising public debt is an important source of vulnerability. Strengthening debt management is a priority, but its effects on domestic economies have been hardly analyzed. This paper asks whether better public debt management could have spillover effects on the private sector, leading to more (and more stable) private capital flows and domestic credit. This is a relevant question in a context of financial deepening and increasing private capital inflows, which could be prone to episodes of bonanza, sudden stops and crises. Our results, based on a sample of developing countries, show positive spillover effects from better public debt management to private capital inflows and domestic financial deepening.