Indonesia's Law on Public Services: changing state–society relations or continuing politics as usual?

Institutional reforms introduced after the collapse of the New Order regime have brought state–society relations in Indonesia under increased scrutiny. This paper uses an evaluation of Law 25/2009 on Public Services as a means to assess whether the new political setting has increased the leverage of the citizenry over the state. Adopted in July 2009, the law introduced a range of regulations for public service providers. It also expanded the responsibilities of the Ombudsman's office and called for the establishment of citizen committees to monitor public service delivery. However, the legal quality of the law is poor and the broader institutional and political environment is not conducive to its enforcement. Overall, the law aims beyond the capacity of the current political and legal system. Ironically, in order for society to gain greater leverage in politics, state capacity must increase as well.     

North-South trade: is Africa unusual?

We estimate a gravity model to address the question of whetherAfrica's bilateral trade with industrial countries is 'unusual'compared with other developing country regions. Our main findingis that the unusually low level of African trade is explainedby economic size, geographical distance and population. Thisresult holds after controlling for a country's access to thesea, composition of exports, linguistic ties with industrialcountries and trade policies. If anything, the average Africancountry tends to 'overtrade' compared with developing countriesin other regions, although the degree to which Africa overtradeshad steadily declined over the past two-and-one-half decades.     

Innovation,learning, and exporting in China: Does R&D or a technology index matter?

This paper undertakes econometric analysis of innovation, learning, and exporting in automobiles and electronics firms in China using a large-scale 2003 dataset to identify the most appropriate innovation proxy. Drawing on recent literature on innovation and learning in developing countries, it tests two alternative proxies: (i) a technology index (TI) to capture a variety of minor activities involved in using imported technologies efficiently; and (ii) the research and development (R&D)-to-sales ratio, which represents formal technological efforts to create new products and processes, often at world frontiers. A higher TI increases the probability of exporting in both industries, while the R&D-to-sales ratio was not significant. Foreign ownership, technical manpower, and the characteristics of the general manager/chief executive officer also matter. The findings suggest that China's remarkable success in the export of automobiles and electronics since initiating an open-door foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in 1978 is linked to technology transfer from multinationals; systematic investments in and upgrading of minor technological activities (like search, engineering, quality management and design); and human capital. As China's per capita income rises over time, however, formal R&D activities are likely to become more important to sustain competitiveness and technological upgrading in automobiles and electronics.     

Pay as incentive or pay as reward? The case of Taiwan

By the 1980s, Taiwan had gradually transformed itself from an economy in which labor was plentiful, while capital was in short supply, into an economy in which a surplus of capital was accompanied by a shortage of labor. For labor economists interested in rapidly evolving labor markets, there are many intriguing questions arising out of this transition. This study explores how conventional labor market and efficiency wage theories apply during this transformation. Based on monthly data over the period 1982–2007, we examine the linear causality between pay and productivity using Geweke's [Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77, 304–313] linear feedback technique. The results indicate that both pay as reward and pay as incentive behaviors are significant in the Taiwanese economy, with pay as incentive especially strong in the manufacturing sector.     

Firms’ exporting and importing activities: is there a two-way relationship?

The literature on firm heterogeneity and trade has highlighted that most trading firms tend to engage in both importing and exporting activities. This paper provides some evidence that helps understanding to what extent this is the result of a two-way relationship. Using firm-level data for a group of 27 Eastern European and Central Asian countries from the World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) over the period 2002–2008, we estimate a bivariate probit model of exporting and importing. After controlling for size (and other firm-level characteristics) we find that firms’ exporting activity does not increase the probability of importing, while the latter has a positive effect on foreign sales. This effect is mainly channeled through an increase in firm productivity and product innovation.     

Higher wages in exporting firms: self-selection, export effect, or both? First evidence from linked employer-employee data

While it is a stylized fact that exporting firms pay higher wages than non-exporting firms, the direction of the link between exporting and wages is less clear. Using a rich set of German linked employer-employee panel data we follow over time plants that start to export. We show that the exporter wage premium does already exist in the years before firms start to export, and that it does not increase in the following years. Higher wages in exporting firms are thus due to self-selection of more productive, better paying firms into export markets; they are not caused by export activities.     

Are multinationals exporting jobs? The case of Taiwan

Does offshore production always result in job exportation? Using firm‐level data for Taiwanese multinationals that allow us to avoid reverse causality issues, this paper finds that while increasing offshore production has a negative impact on the demand for domestic manufacturing workers, this is not the case for domestic research and development workers who are often more skilled. The results also suggest that for Taiwan, there is geographical fragmentation of production activities in such a way that more skilled jobs are maintained domestically and less‐skilled jobs are exported to other developing countries. These findings confirm the prediction of the knowledge‐capital model.     

What explains the performance of Chinese exporting firms?

Drawing on the entry mode (EM) literature and the strategic tripod framework, we examine whether firm performance is influenced by its outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) mode, controlling other firm-, industry- and institution-specific factors. It is found that employing OFDI does not improve an exporting firm’s performance. This is not surprising as anecdotal evidence shows that many Chinese firms with OFDI have been making loss in the host country. This may indicate exporting firms employ OFDI to seek complementary and strategic resources/assets, not to improve immediate firm performance. Furthermore, firm performance is influenced by strategic assets, including technology-based capabilities and brands, at the firm level, industry entry barriers at the industry level and the home and host country institutional support at the country level.     

Further evidence on the international business cycle and the ERM: is there a European business cycle?

Successful exchange rate regimes impose policy disciplines thatare likely to lead to conformity in the business cycles of theparticipating countries. This conjecture is borne out in thepaper by the evidence in it that the business cycle affiliationof ERM member countries has shifted from the United States toGermany since the formation of the ERM. This effect is bolsteredby the growing links in trade between the EU countries. TheUnited Kingdom is conspicuous among the latter in that its businesscycle affiliation did not change in the period covered by thestudy.     

Bold Stock Recommendations: Informative or Worthless?

We select a small set of recommendations that lie in the upper and lower tail of the empirical distribution of divergences between a recommendation, and the consensus over the window (−30, −1) days prior to that recommendation. We classify these extremely divergent recommendations as bold, and then subdivide them into informative bold recommendations that lead other analysts (leading-bold) and those that are ignored by other analysts (contra-bold) based on the consensus change in the 30 days after the announcement. We focus on the information conveyed to the market by these bold, leading-bold, and contra-bold recommendations through their effects on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR). We find that bold recommendations are not anticipated by market participants (CARs are negative before a bold buy and positive before a bold sell). The next finding is that the market responds strongly to both leading and contra-bold recommendations over the (0, +4)-day window and that these reactions are stronger than that to nonbold recommendations. In contrast, over the longer (0, +30)-day window, leading-bold recommendations earn additional returns whereas contra-bold ones reverse significantly due to lack of confirmation. The overall pattern is one of rational market reaction both in the short and long windows. We support the rationality of the market reaction by showing that the percentage of leading-bold recommendations exceeds that of contra-bold recommendations, and that these two types of recommendations cannot be separated using observable analyst characteristics such as experience or brokerage size.     

Whether to Abolish or Introduce Dual Regulation as Trade and Environmental Policy?

China, which has already introduced an environmental tax in an effort to decarbonize, has recently begun emissions trading and is using two environmental policies in tandem, but there are concerns about the impact on growth and trade. Trade and environmental policies affect firms' entry and exit, resulting in changes in aggregate productivity and pollution emissions. This study compares the impacts of single regulation and dual regulation on welfare, using a research-and-development based growth model with heterogeneous firms. Under single regulation, the cleansing effect of trade liberalization could be undermined. Under dual regulation, trade liberalization decreases pollution and improves average productivity whereas decreasing total permits reduces pollution. From the perspective of improving welfare it is desirable to choose dual regulation because trade liberalization can reduce total pollution emissions via the cleansing effect of trade liberalization.     

China's Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

This paper analyzes whether the slowdown of China's trade in 2012–2015 was cyclical or structural, and further discusses the effects of structural factors, including trade structure, trade protectionism and global value chain participation. Using the national panel data from 2000 to 2015, based on the error correction model and import‐intensity‐adjusted demand model, our results show that the slowdown of China's trade growth in 2012–2015 was mainly a result of cyclical factors. Using 2000–2015 industry‐level data, we also find that the structure of trade goods had an inhibitory effect on the import slowdown but a positive effect on the export slowdown. Trade protectionism had an adverse effect on the trade growth slowdown. The global value chain participation marginally contributed to the slowdown in trade growth. Therefore, the impacts of structural factors on trade growth slowdown cannot be ignored, and related policies should receive greater attention from policy‐makers.     

Time for a Nordic business history initiative?

The current state of Nordic business history is by certain estimates better than ever. Nordic business historians publish extensively in leading international journals and have a strong presence at international business history conferences. Still, in this discussion article we raise a yellow flag of warning for the future of Nordic business history. We argue that the subject field is challenged along three important dimensions: (i) lack of relevant teaching, (ii) continued reliance on commissioned history and (iii) limited recruitment. The article discusses these challenges and seeks to place them in a historical perspective. For each challenge, we develop a set of concrete proposals to address the problems identified. A common theme in our proposed solutions is to intensify Nordic collaboration, particularly through the establishment of common, externally funded Nordic research projects. To create meeting grounds for the development of such projects, The Scandinavian Society for Economic and Social History – the formal collaborative body for Nordic economic historians and the owner of Scandinavian Economic History Review – should be reinvigorated.     

Bank lending and the business cycle: Does ownership matter in ASEAN countries?

We analyze the lending cyclicality of 213 ASEAN commercial banks over the period 2001–2015. The findings indicate that lending by private banks is procyclical while lending by state banks is countercyclical. Long-term liabilities also move countercyclically for state banks whereas funding for non-state banks in the form of deposit and long-term liabilities is procyclical. Greater lending cyclicality is observed for both private and state banks in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam (CMLV) compared to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore (ASEAN-5). Lending of non-ASEAN based foreign banks shows greater procyclicality than that of domestic banks for the ASEAN-5 countries, although not for the CMLV countries. During the global financial crisis, lending by non-ASEAN based foreign banks contracted sharply even as lending by ASEAN based foreign banks was unaffected. Overall, our results confirm that bank ownership influences lending and funding sensitivity to economic fluctuations.     

Corporate key labs: Breakthrough or white elephant?

Based on manually collected data from Chinese listed firms' key laboratories at the state and provincial levels, this study shows that key laboratories improve firms' innovation output. Corporations with key laboratories at the state or provincial level produce more patents and citations than their counterparts. A series of endogenous treatment effects, including the Heckman two-step sample selection model, instrumental variable estimation, policy shock analysis, and propensity score matching, indicate that this study's main conclusion is robust and consistent. We also observe that key laboratories' beneficial impact on innovation output becomes more prominent for firms belonging to high-tech industries, those led by an inventor or scientist CEO, and those located in cities that enforce the protection of intellectual property. Further, key laboratories foster innovation mainly by developing scientific research capacity, increasing human capital, and improving R&D subsidies. Our findings demonstrate that key laboratories can benefit firms, their stakeholders, and the public in an emerging market such as China.     

World Bank: IDA Loans or IDA Grants?

This paper discusses President Bush's July 2001 proposal to convert a major share of IDA lending to grants. It presents arguments in favor of the proposal but also notes difficulties and points where other donor countries and supporters of the World Bank have reservations. It identifies issues which should be addressed in any final agreement among the donor countries.     

De-industrialisation in sub-Saharan Africa: myth or crisis?

This article examines the de-industrialisation hypothesis inthe context of recent developments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Alternative versions of de-industrialisation are consideredand a methodology for testing for such effects is put forward.This involves a cross-country analysis using a panel data approachwith regional and time period, as well as country dummies. Atthe regional level no specific Africa effect can be identified.To allow for diversity of experience within SSA, country residualsfrom the benchmark equation are also considered and here thereis some evidence of de-industrialisation in seven out of the16 African economies for which data were available.     

Financial dependence and exports: Entrants or incumbents?

Using firm-level customs data from 51 countries at different levels of development, we explore differential impacts of access to finance on incumbent and new exporters. Consistent with the literature, firms in sectors more dependent on external finance have higher exports based in financially more developed countries. This effect, however, occurs entirely through entrants, with no effect found for incumbents. The trade response of entrants works primarily through the extensive margin (number of exporters) rather than the intensive margin (average size). We further find access to external finance affects exporter entry rates while it does not affect exporter exit rates.