Conservatism in residual income models: theory and supporting evidence

In this paper, we develop a framework for evaluating the impact of conservative accounting on the structure of residual income models of equity valuation. We explore specific examples of both unconditional and conditional conservatism and observe a common mathematical structure. We proceed to generalise our model and identify the joint dependency of conservatism and the persistence of abnormal earnings on the weights attached to book values, earnings and dividends. We are able to show theoretically the likely numerical impact of conservatism on price-earnings ratios and under-valuations produced by residual income models. We investigate empirically the interaction between conservatism and persistence and find they accord well with the theory developed. We briefly discuss the implications of testing the effect of conservatism on valuation and linear information dynamics.     

Discussion of “On Accounting-Based Valuation Formulae” and “Expected EPS and EPS Growthas Determinants of Value”

This discussion evaluates the abnormal earnings growth valuation (AEG) Model of Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth and, in similar vein to the Ohlson review paper at this conference, compares the Model to the residual income valuation (RIV) Model that has been the centerpiece of accounting-based valuation in recent years. The discussion begins with a statement of what one looks for in a practical valuation model. The innovations of the AEG Model, well stated by Ohlson, are acknowledged. A comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of the alternative approaches provides some qualification, however, and draws out the utility of a residual income valuation approach.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

An empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models considering the sign of abnormal earnings

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the Feltham-Ohlson models, distinguishing between firms with positive and negative abnormal earnings. Abnormal earnings persistence and conservatism parameters differ for these two groups; this implies different earnings prediction models and valuation functions for both profit-making and loss-making firms. The analysis refers to the period 1991-1999 and uses a sample of Spanish firms quoted on the Madrid S.E. The results suggest that our contextual approach is more useful than the non-contextual one to predict future abnormal earnings and explain current prices. Although the Ohlson (1995) model is accurate in forecasting future abnormal earnings and stock prices, the results improve when firms with negative abnormal earnings are valued using a temporary model and firms with positive abnormal earnings using a more permanent one. The Feltham and Ohlson (1995) model generates the lowest forecast errors in the prediction of positive abnormal earnings, but it produces the least accurate results in forecasting prices.     

Evaluating cross-sectional forecasting models for implied cost of capital

The computation of implied cost of capital (ICC) is constrained by the lack of analyst forecasts for half of all firms. Hou et al. (J Account Econ 53:504–526, 2012, HVZ) present a cross-sectional model to generate forecasts in order to compute ICC. However, the forecasts from the HVZ model perform worse than those from a naïve random walk model and the ICCs show anomalous correlations with risk factors. We present two parsimonious alternatives to the HVZ model: the EP model based on persistence in earnings and the RI model based on the residual income model from Feltham and Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:689–732, 1996). Both models outperform the HVZ model in terms of forecast bias, accuracy, earnings response coefficients, and correlations of the ICCs with future returns and risk factors. We recommend that future research use the RI model or the EP model to generate earnings forecasts.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.     

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Abstract:  In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems.     

Information dynamics, dividend displacement, conservatism, and earnings measurement: a development of the Ohlson (1995) valuation framework

This paper extends the Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11, 661–687, 1995) equity valuation framework by demonstrating that dividend displacement continues to hold when dividends have a positive forecast coefficient in the linear abnormal earnings dynamic. The analysis demonstrates that such a predictive role for dividends implies a positive association between cum div book value of equity and the present value of expected abnormal earnings, consistent with both dividend displacement and accounting conservatism. While a signaling role for dividends is ruled out, a link between dividends, expected performance, and equity value is, however, demonstrated. The paper also considers a linear information model where an undefined variable replaces realized abnormal comprehensive earnings as an indicator of future performance. The role of this variable as a predictor of future abnormal comprehensive earnings is highlighted and the special case where it corresponds to recurring abnormal earnings is considered. This latter case provides useful implications for implementation of asset revaluations.     

Accruals,Cash Flows,and Equity Values

We find, as predicted, that the differential ability of accrual and cash flow components of earnings to help forecast future abnormal earnings and the persistence of the components result in the components having different valuation implications. We base our tests on Ohlson (1999) applied to fourteen industries. We find: (1) Accruals and cash flows aid in forecasting future abnormal earnings incremental to abnormal earnings and equity book value. (2) Accruals and cash flows provide explanatory power for equity market value incremental to equity book value and abnormal earnings. (3) There is evidence that accruals and cash flows valuation coefficients are consistent with the Ohlson model.     

Accounting Valuation Models: A Short Primer

This note discusses basic issues related to residual income valuation (RIV) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) models but has only scratched the surface of a complex subject. What clearly emerges from this 'primer' is the conclusion that AEG is a more complex valuation model than RIV. This complexity concerns both the mechanics and interpretation of AEG compared to RIV. Furthermore, a study by Penman (2005 ) raises a question about the usefulness of AEG compared to RIV. His comparisons between RIV and AEG are rather remarkable and suggest that RIV gives estimates of value which are more accurate and less variable than estimates based on AEG. Clearly, these results need further study.     

Analyst forecast,accounting conservatism and the related valuation implications

This study investigates whether financial analysts incorporate accounting conservatism into their earnings forecasts and whether it is more difficult for them to forecast earnings for less conservative firms, and then examines the impact of the findings on the return predictability of the value‐to‐price (V/P) ratio. After controlling for the other factors affecting forecast accuracy, such as earnings predictability and information uncertainty, I find that analysts incorporate accounting conservatism into their earnings forecasts and that forecasting earnings is more difficult for less conservative firms. Consequently, the return predictability of the V/P ratio is stronger for more conservative firms, and previously reported return predictability of the V/P ratio is an average across firms with differing levels of conservatism.     

The effect of differential accounting conservatism on the “over-valuation” of high-tech firms relative to low-tech firms

This paper examines systematic differences in the level of accounting conservatism between high-tech and low-tech firms. Relying on the recent development in theoretical models and empirical measures of conservatism, we investigate conservative accounting practices and earnings management behavior in high-tech and low-tech firms. The results based on comparisons of cumulative nonoperating accruals, regression coefficients from the income timeliness models in Basu (1997), the distribution of earnings, and discretionary accruals between the two groups are consistent with a higher level of accounting conservatism in high-tech firms vis-à-vis low-tech firms. Additional analyses show that the effect of conservatism cannot be used as a defense for the over-valuation of high-tech firms.     

Market implied future earnings and analysts’ forecasts

This study provides evidence on market implied future earnings based on the residual income valuation (RIV) framework and compares these earnings with analyst earnings forecasts for accuracy (absolute forecast error) and bias (signed forecast error). Prior research shows that current stock price reflects future earnings and that analyst forecasts are biased. Thus, how price-based imputed forecasts compare with analyst forecasts is interesting. Using different cost of capital estimates, we use the price-earnings relation and impute firms’ future annual earnings from three residual income (RI) models for up to 5 years. Relative to I/B/E/S analyst forecasts, imputed forecasts from the RI models are less or no more biased when cost of capital is low (equal to a risk-free rate or slightly higher). Analysts slightly outperform these RI models in terms of accuracy for immediate future (1 or 2) years in the forecast horizon but the opposite is true for more distant future years when cost of capital is low. A regression analysis shows that, in explaining future earnings changes, analyst forecasts relative to imputed forecasts do not impound a significant amount of earnings information embedded in current price. In additional tests, we impute future long-term earnings growth rates and find that they are more accurate and less biased than I/B/E/S analyst long-term earnings growth forecasts. Together, the results suggest that the RIV framework can be used to impute a firm’s future earnings that are high in accuracy and low in bias, especially for distant future years.     

Unexpected Accruals and Conditional Accounting Conservatism

Abstract:  This paper examines the impact of management discretion over accruals on conditional accounting conservatism, defined as the tendency of accountants to recognize bad news on a timelier basis than good news. Prior research suggests that conditional accounting conservatism reflected in earnings is mainly due to the accrual component of earnings, not the cash flow component of earnings. After decomposing total accruals into expected and unexpected accruals, I find that (1) conditional accounting conservatism reflected in accruals is mainly due to unexpected accruals; (2) the negative association between unconditional and conditional accounting conservatism is mainly attributable to unexpected accruals; and (3) firms with higher leverage exhibit conditionally more conservative accounting primarily through unexpected accruals. These results are robust to accrual models that take into account the systematic association between accruals and cash flows and their non-linearity and to the asymmetric persistence of earnings changes specification of conditional accounting conservatism. Taken together, these results suggest that managers exercise their discretion over accruals to expedite the recognition of bad news rather than good news.     

The Sophisticated and the Simple: the Profitability of Contrarian Strategies

A variety of variables have been used to form contrarian portfolios, ranging from relatively simple measures, like book‐to‐market, cash flow‐to‐price, earnings‐to‐price and past returns, to more sophisticated measures based on the Ohlson model and residual income model (RIM). This paper investigates whether: (i) contrarian strategies based on RIM perform better or worse than those based on the Ohlson model; (ii) contrarian strategies based on more sophisticated valuation models (e.g. Ohlson and RIM) perform much better than the relatively simpler ranking variables that have been used so extensively in the finance literature. Given that the RIM and Ohlson models require greater information inputs and technical know‐how, and make different implicit assumptions on future abnormal earnings, it is important to ascertain if they offer significantly greater contrarian profits to outweigh the increased costs that they entail. Indeed, our surprising finding is that simple cash flow‐to‐price measures appear to do almost as well as the more sophisticated alternatives. One would have expected the sophisticated models to significantly outperform the simple cash flow to price model for the reasons given by Penman (2007) .     

Valuation Weights,Linear Dynamics and Accounting Conservatism: An Empirical Analysis

Residual income models provide an important theoretical link between equity valuation and financial statement variables. While various researchers have developed models of how accounting policy impacts on the structure of these models, empirical support for these models is at best weak and frequently contradictory. In this paper, we develop an analytical model, which identifies the dependency between valuation weights in residual income models and the associated structure of earnings information dynamics and accounting conservatism. In contrast to many earlier studies, we find strong evidence of conservatism in our reformulation of the linear dynamics. We proceed to test our predictions of the dependency of the weights on two measures of conservatism, the conventional measure of price‐to‐book ratio and the recent measure of a C‐Score index developed by Khan and Watts (2009) and find that the empirical results accord well with our theoretical predictions in the case of the former but not the latter measure.     

Conservatism, Growth and the Role of Accounting Numbers in the Fundamental Analysis Process

I evaluate the effects of conservative accounting for research and development (R&D) and past growth in R&D on: (1) the relation between aggregate earnings (deflated by price) and contemporaneous stock return, and (2) the association between estimates of value derived from the residual income valuation model (i.e., RIV estimates) and equity market value. I show that the conservative treatment of R&D affects the earnings/return relation only for firms that experience high growth in R&D during the return interval of interest. I also demonstrate that the effect of conservative accounting for R&D on the association between RIV estimates and equity market values is increasing in past growth in R&D.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

Does accounting conservatism pay?

We investigate whether or not there is a link between conservative accounting practices and the sensitivity of executive pay to accounting performance. Using several accrual‐based measures of accounting conservatism as well as alternative measures of accounting performance, we estimate an econometric model of CEO compensation that incorporates the interaction of accounting conservatism and accounting performance. Consistent with optimal contracting theory, we find that the sensitivity of executive pay to accounting performance is higher for firms that report conservative accounting earnings. These results support the hypothesis that accounting conservatism, by limiting earnings management opportunities and improving the reliability of accounting performance measures, allows firms to formulate contracts that tie executive compensation more closely to accounting performance.     

Accounting diversity and firm valuation

We examine accounting numbers and stock prices across three countries: Germany, Norway, and the United Kingdom (UK). The accounting systems in the three countries differ in faithfulness to clean surplus accounting and in conservatism. We address three questions. First, are there systematic differences across countries in the value relevance of accounting? Second, are there systematic differences in the incremental and relative value relevance of book values and earnings per shape (EPS) across the countries? Third, do future earnings realizations (proxies for expected earnings) explain current stock prices? We find that accounting book value and EPS are significantly related to current stock prices across all three countries. German accounting numbers have the lowest relation with stock prices (R² ≈ 40%) and UK accounting numbers the highest (R² ≈ 70%), while Norwegian accounting numbers are in between (R² ≈ 60%). Second, the incremental and relative explanatory power of book value and of EPS differs across time and across countries. Book values explain more than earnings in Germany and Norway, but less in the UK. Finally, future income realization explain little about market prices not already explained by current book value and EPS.     

Residual income,value-relevant information and equity valuation: a simultaneous equations approach

The paper uses Ohlson (Contemp Account Res 11:661–687, 1995) and compares the relative predictability of the proposed simultaneous model for contemporaneous stock price with a traditional single equation model used by the previous studies. The paper also explores how residual income and value-relevant information affect firms’ equity price. The main results of the paper suggest that the predictive ability and estimation efficiency of the simultaneous models in explaining contemporaneous stock prices are better than those of the traditional single models. Moreover, investors will use the value-relevant information beyond accounting earnings, namely analysts’ earnings forecasts, bankruptcy cost and agency cost, in equity valuation to make decision. Note particularly, the higher the bankruptcy or agency cost is, the more important the role it plays in equity valuation and, on average, the higher the accuracy of price prediction is.

The role of accounting conservatism in management forecast bias

We investigate whether management earnings forecasts fully incorporate information in historical accounting conservatism. We find that management earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms with greater accounting conservatism in the previous year. We further examine whether this conservatism-related optimistic bias in management earnings forecasts varies with managers’ difficulty predicting earnings accurately, managers’ opportunistic incentives, and the firms’ litigation risk. We find that the negative association between management forecast errors and conservatism increases, to various extent, with the firms’ operating cycles, earnings volatility, and the width of forecast range but does not change with proxies for opportunistic incentives or litigation risk. These results suggest that forecast difficulty is the primary reason for managers’ failure to incorporate conservatism fully in their earnings forecasts.