NO FIXED ADDRESS—PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

After an initial excursion into the role of Presidential Addresses, the author examines the growth and shape of the agricultural economics profession in the UK suggesting that, over nearly one hundred years, there have been four distinct phases — and that we might be on the threshold of a fifth. The one thread that has run through this entire history is farm management and some recent developments in the field — in particular the need for net margins as well as gross margins — are examined. The address closes with some personal reflections on ‘being an agricultural economist’.     

AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN CHINA—A VISITOR'S IMPRESSION

Following a study tour of China a brief account is presented of recent changes in agricultural policy with some short comments on living conditions. The account concentrates on the prominence now given to agriculture within the planning process and the recent raising of its status relative to other sectors. This is associated with the change to the household responsibility system allied to upward adjustment in agricultural producer prices and some adjustment in input costs.     

EXTENSION ECONOMICS—THE NEXT TEN YEARS1

In summary, let me emphasize a few highlights of the subject—Extension Economics—the next ten years.

• 1 Changing farm problems will require major adjustments by agriculture and its advisors.
• 2 Structural reform in farming and marketing arrangements of one kind or another will lead these adjustments.
• 3 Clientele of extension economists will include producers (in two basic groups), agri-business, non-agricultural rural residents and consumers.
• 4 Our approach should be on the basis of educators and we must keep up-to-date in the teaching methods and media used. Agricultural extension could logically become the center for a new broad program of continuing adult education.
• 5 Subject matter areas of concern to the economist must be broadened to actively include marketing, processing and public affairs.
• 6 A sound program of physical and economic research must be provided as a companion to effective extension work. Greater collaboration is necessary—both ways.
• 7 Personnel for extension economics will be forthcoming only if salary adjustments are made and university curricula revised to better train extension people.
• 8 Extension economists must use care and diplomacy in their relationships with University, Federal and Provincial officials.
• 9 We still have responsibility to more completely demonstrate the usefulness of our knowledge to other extension workers, administrators, and the farm public. Recognition must also be given to working closely with advisors in agri-business and private consulting firms.
• 10 Program evaluation, internal and external, are essential for a healthy program in extension economics.

     

Aiding Agricultural Development — Some Lessons1

The indivisibility of Canada's national and international political and economic interests is recognized. These interests can be furthered only if the interdependence of economic, social and political considerations are expressed through clear cut national policy goals for integrating rural and urban interests. These goals in themselves are meaningless without the requisite government authority backed up by resources and personnel for the implementation process. An integral part of implementation is the need to ensure participation of the resident population in development goal setting and implementation of programs. Current international experience supporting the need for local residents to be so involved are presented. L'AIDE AU DÉVELOPPEMENT AGRICOLE: L'indivisibilité des intérêts économiques et politiques du Canada au niveau national et international est déjà reconnue. Ces intérêts peuvent être favoriser seulement si l'interdépendance des considérations économiques, sociales et politiques sont exprimées à trovers une politique nationals précise afin d'intégrer les intérêts rurals et urbains. Ces ambitions sont en eux-mêmes sans signification, sans l'autoritée gouvernementale secondée par les ressources et le personnel pour un meilleur développement. Une partie intégrante de ce développement sera le besoin d'assurer la participation de la population résidante dans un cadre de croissance. Les expériences courantes, supportant le besoin des résidents locaux àêtre engager, sont présentées.     

Stakeholders’ perceptions of forestry in rural areas—Two case studies in Ireland

Ireland has undergone a substantial afforestation programme in the last 20 years, resulting in the forest cover increasing from 4.8% of the land area in 1983 to a current level of 10%. This paper presents the results of a study undertaken to assess stakeholders’ perceptions of forestry in two case study areas in Ireland. The two areas, Shillelagh and Newmarket, were chosen because their demographic characteristics varied as did their history of forestry development. However, the current forest cover is similar in the two areas both in terms of species composition and extent. Qualitative techniques, involving interviews with stakeholders, were used. There were striking differences in the perceptions of forestry in the cases study areas. In Shillelagh, which had a longer history of forest cover and a more urbanized population than Newmarket, forestry was considered part both of the local history and traditional landscape. Forests were valued for their amenity and recreation functions rather than their economic function. In contrast, perceptions of forestry in Newmarket were negative. Forestry was considered to be an isolating agent which was not part of the landscape of the area. The forests were also considered to have negligible amenity value. These negative perceptions in Newmarket seem to be linked to the dominance of Sitka spruce, an exotic conifer, in the forests. Stakeholders expressed the desire that if forestry was to expand further in the area that it would be through the planting of broadleaf species rather than conifers. The fact that these negative perceptions did not emerge in Shillelagh despite it having a similar species composition is attributed to the more gradual rate of afforestation and thus landscape change in the area. The lack of consultation and approach to planning regarding afforestation proposals was identified as a key issue in Newmarket with stakeholders expressing the wish that they should be consulted more when afforestation was planned. Greater community involvement in the planning of afforestation proposals is recommended as a means of improving consultation and to help dispel negative perceptions. The paper concludes by highlighting that perceptions of forestry within an area are dynamic and are influenced by the history of forestry development in that area.     

LINEAR PROGRAMMING AND GAME THEORY MODLES—SOME EXTENSIONS

This is an extension of the author's earlier paper in this Journal, showing how the complete range of decision criteria conventionally associated with game theory can be applied in conjunction with a linear programming model. The use of these criteria is demonstrated in relation to the same farm planning problem as was shown earlier in the development of Maximin programming, and a comparison of all the alternative plans resulting from the adoption of a game theoretic decision framework is presented.     

Multiple Leasing under Cropshare Tenancy — A Note

This paper attempts to explain the perplexing tendency to multiple leasing by both landlords and tenants in some countries. It shows that if the negotiation of share contracts involves significant transaction costs and there is some uncertainty regarding the output on tenanted plots, a risk-averse landlord maximizing expected utility will find it in his advantage to subdivide his land among several tenants and also permit his tenant to lease land from other landlords.     

THE MERINO EXPORT EMBARGO — A COMPARATIVE STATIC ANALYSIS

The genetic changes which would occur in overseas flocks as a result of the export of merino rams from Australia are unknown. Even so, Australia recently relaxed the merino export embargo and may go further. A comparative static model is presented to assess changes in annual wool income resulting from increases in the supply of apparel wool emanating from possible levels of the genetic effect.     

PRODUCT TRADING — AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRANSFERABLE WHEAT QUOTAS

This note examines the implications of permitting producers to trade wheat amongst themselves. The outcome, in efficiency terms, is identical to that achieved with transferable quotas. For some producers, there may be advantages in product trading that are not available in transferable quotas.     

ARDA AND POVERTY — LESSONS IN DEVELOPMENTAL PLANNING*

Rapid changes in the social and economic environment are creating problems which require new forms of government intervention. This paper explores the reason for this, the needs and the difficulties within our present institutional structure and based on experience to date in implementing the ARDA and FRED legislation, outlines a possible process through which government intervention in these new areas can be made more effective. ARDA ET LA PAUVRETÉ— LEÇONS DANS LA PLANIFICATION ET l'ÉVOLUTION: La rapidité des changements dans le milieu social et économique créent des problèmes qui demandent une nouvelle formule dans l'intervention gouvernementale. Cette dissertation explore les raisons pour cela, les besoins et les difficultés au sein, de notre présente structure et en se baseant sur l'expérience à date dans la législation ARDA et FRED, souligne une méthode possible à trovers lequel, une intervention gouvernementale dans ces nouvelles régions pourrait être plus efficace.     

TOWARDS A BROADER UNDERSTANDING OF MEAT DEMAND — PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

This paper sets out meat consumption trends in the United Kingdom and within other EU countries over the past 40 years; it shows that whereas in the UK meat consumption has only increased by a small amount, for other EU countries it has almost doubled. In analysing the data in more detail, it is apparent that ‘non-price/income’ factors have been playing a more important part both for the UK and other EU countries. It is true that in recent years there has been much more published empirical work on the effect of different attitude, demographic and structural factors on meat demand; commercial and Governmental organisations have also been collecting a significant amount of relevant unpublished data. However, there has not been much recent progress on integrated approaches which combine the analyses of the consumer behaviourist with those of the economist. The paper concludes by stating that this is an area of growing importance for the food industry and those interested in analysing food demand trends. Agricultural economists should therefore get more involved in it.