Evaluation of Laboratory Directed Research and Development investment areas at Sandia

Sandia National Laboratories conducts a variety of research projects each year under its Laboratory-Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program. Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies. Tools, techniques, and specific analyses are presented here. We find that these tools and techniques hold great promise for aiding the future direction of the science and technology enterprise.     

从企业投资效率看盈余管理的经济后果——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

文章以2005-2009年沪深两市上市公司为样本,从投资效率的角度检验了中国现实制度背景下盈余管理的经济后果。研究发现,企业盈余管理程度与未来投资效率显著负相关,上市公司盈余管理程度越高,其未来投资效率越低。文章由此得出结论:盈余管理不仅可能误导外部投资者的判断和决策,也对企业的内部决策产生了不利影响,损害了市场资源的有效配置,因此必须采取措施抑制企业的盈余管理行为。     

Corporate yield curves as predictors of future economic and financial indicators

The government yield curve is known for its ability to predict the future growth rate of the economy. Later studies showed that credit spreads can assist in predicting macroeconomic behaviour as well. We extend this notion by utilizing corporate yield curves and demonstrating that corporate yield curve spreads can predict future economic growth, the future state of the economy and stock market behaviour. In addition, our sample covers the most recent data available, and it also includes the crash year of 2008 and the recovery period following it. Our results reveal a trade-off effect between the government yield curve, which is a better predictor for long-term forecasting, and the corporate yield curves, which are better predictors for short-term predictions. In addition, we show that both the government and corporate yield curves are more effective in predicting negative rather than positive economic changes.     

Predicting housing prices according to expected future interest rate

In this article, I present a theoretical model for predicting future housing prices as a function of the expected future interest rate, housing depreciation and rent rate. Focusing on the notion of arbitrage, where the returns on investing in housing is equal to the return on bonds, I forecast housing prices in the US as a function of the expected future interest rate on corporate bonds graded at categories AAA or AA. I get that a change in the expected future bond yield will lead to a change in future housing prices.     

公司治理道德风险的起源及其机制设计——基于契约不完全的视角

公司治理契约的不完全性诱发了委托代理关系中的当事人道德风险行为,制约着企业经营效率,成为公司治理研究的逻辑起点。文章从契约不完全性视角探讨了公司治理道德风险的本质和起源,并从公司治理当事人委托代理交互关系中指出了委托人-代理人框架、委托人-监督人-代理人框架、知情委托人框架三类道德风险分析框架。结合公司治理道德风险的本源,从微观视角提出了偏好治理机制、声誉治理机制、信息共享机制、横向监督机制以及第三方执行机制五种由弱到强、由内到外的道德风险多层次治理机制,结合国内外研究现状分析了五种治理机制的作用机理。最后,对五种治理机制在公司治理道德风险中的规制效能进行了总结并从外部竞争对内部机制的影响上提出了未来的研究方向。     

完善我国上市公司治理结构的路径选择

本考证了两种典型的公司治理模式的特征，效率和演变趋势，结合我国上市公司的股权结构分析了公司治理结构，并得出结论：现实的国情和西方公司治理的演变趋势决定了完善我国上市公司治理结构的路戏只能是首先完善公司内部治理结构，未来应朝着以内部治理的主、外部治理为辅的博采众长的混合模式的方向发展。     

企业生命周期研究述评

企业生命周期理论是当今研究企业管理的重要理论之一。论文在梳理了企业生命周期理论发展脉络的基础上,将基于企业生命周期的研究分为应用研究与理论研究两大类,前者主要是探讨企业生命周期各阶段中的管理问题,后者则主要探讨企业生命周期理论的自身问题,如阶段的数量、阶段划分的指标与阶段的划分方法等。论文在此基础上,指出了目前研究的不足,并认为未来的研究中应注意3个方面：（1）应用研究中应加强实证研究。（2）理论研究方面,应加强企业生命周期划分方法的研究,找到一种或几种能被大家广泛接受的方法。（3）企业生命周期作为辅助变量的作用尚需进行深入的研究。在企业管理中,企业生命周期会影响相关的管理决策与方法,其可以作为自变量出现,但也可以作为调节变量或中介变量对相关决策产生作用。这方面的研究也需要严谨的实证数据进行验证分析。     

An Applied Econometricians' View of Empirical Corporate Governance Studies

The economic analysis of corporate governance is in vogue. In addition to a host of theoretical papers, an increasing number of empirical studies analyze how ownership structure, capital structure, board structure, and the market for corporate control influence firm performance. This is not an easy task, and indeed, for reasons explained in this survey, empirical studies on corporate governance have more than the usual share of econometric problems. This paper is a critical survey of the recent empirical literature on corporate governance – to show which methodological lessons can be learned for future empirical research in the field of corporate governance, paying particular attention to German institutions and data availability.     

Future Markets-Radar: A case study of applied strategic foresight

This article describes a project in corporate practice. A large European corporation conducted a project called ‘Future Markets-Radar’ to identify future market opportunities that lie beyond their present attention. The top executives, who were deeply involved in the project, used a systematic process based on the author's Five Futures Glasses and a comprehensive semantic model of objects of thought, called the Eltville Model and a set of appropriate tools to achieve the goals of the project. The results laid the foundation for future success in future markets, solidified and enriched the corporate strategy and increased the future competence of the people involved. This article proposes a model of the corporate disciplines and goals of future management, a definition of what a future market is, key questions on future markets, a process for early recognition of future markets as well as a summary of the project's results and benefits.     

公司创业研究知识结构与前沿演进

近年来,关于公司创业的研究文献大量涌现,探索公司创业的关键文献和研究趋势,对于公司创业理论研究和实践活动具有重要意义。利用引文分析工具CiteSpace II,通过绘制科学知识图谱,采用定量和系统的文献综述方法,对各国学者发表的公司创业文献进行梳理,探寻领域内关键文献,展示研究主题演进轨迹,并分析研究前沿的重要文献,最后对公司创业未来研究方向进行展望。     

前因变量、慈善行为与组织绩效研究

随着人们的社会发展观和价值观的逐渐成熟,要求企业承担社会责任的呼声越来越高。作为承担社会责任的一种有效方式,企业慈善捐赠行为在全球范围内迅速发展,不仅捐赠领域越来越广泛、捐赠资源日趋多样,而且更注重捐赠的效果。与迅速增长的慈善实践相比,相关慈善理论略显薄弱,大多研究仅描述了慈善行为本身,鲜有关于慈善产生动因、行为特征、组织绩效的详细解读,因而使理论工作者难以廓清慈善行为的全貌。本文通过理论演绎,阐释了前因变量、慈善行为和组织绩效三者之间的关系,并以此为基础提出相关研究假设,构建了＂前因变量—慈善行为—组织绩效＂这一概念模型,该模型论述了影响慈善捐赠行为的关键因素,揭示了慈善捐赠行为对企业组织绩效的作用机制,未来的研究可以通过实证数据进一步检验和修正理论分析框架,以为我国企业参与慈善活动提供借鉴。     

Tax structure and economic growth

Past theoretical work predicts that higher corporate tax rates should decrease economic growth rates, while the effects of high personal tax rates are less clear. In this paper, we explore how tax policies in fact affect a country's growth rate, using cross-country data during 1970–1997. We find that statutory corporate tax rates are significantly negatively correlated with cross-sectional differences in average economic growth rates, controlling for various other determinants of economic growth, and other standard tax variables. In fixed-effect regressions, we again find that increases in corporate tax rates lead to lower future growth rates within countries. The coefficient estimates suggest that a cut in the corporate tax rate by 10 percentage points will raise the annual growth rate by one to two percentage points.     

金融危机背景下鞍钢产品策略现状与对策

从鞍钢集团的产品策略角度出发,结合金融危机背景条件,对鞍钢的应对策略和产品线调整状况作出分析,在此基础上总结鞍钢在金融危机中成功应对的经验,并分析未来产品策略。     

A comparison of commodity price forecasting by Box-Jenkins and regression-based techniques

This article describes a study of forecasting methods performed for the corporate purchasing function, which required monthly forecasts of high-volume rubber-commodity prices as an aid to formulating its future purchasing strategy. Four mathematical forecasting procedures are applied to the same set of rubber-commodity price-index data. The forecasting techniques used are the Box-Jenkins time-series method, multiple linear regression analysis, and two new regression-based techniques, referred to as minimum relative error regressionanalysis and dynamic regression analysis.The rationale behind each method is briefly described. The forecast results generated by each algorithm are presented in graphic and numerical form. The accuracy of each method is evaluated by comparing forecasted versus actual values of the rubber-commodity price index. For this data, the new minimum relative error regression technique compares quite favorably with the powerful Box-Jenkins method, followed by standard multiple regression. The dynamic regression method is the least accurate of the four in this application.     

代理理论与公司治理综述

委托-代理理论是目前公司治理研究中的主流分析框架,也是指导现实实践的一个重要理论根据.传统委托-代理理论所关注的是如何缓解股东与经理人之间的信息不对称程度,但是现实实践表明,公司治理中大股东与中小股东之间也存在着隐性代理关系.本文就代理理论在公司治理中的发展过程及逻辑进行了总结,并对代理理论发展方向进行了预测.     

公司治理视角下企业创新研究脉络与热点图谱量化分析

为全面客观分析不同公司治理机制对企业创新的影响，基于Web of Science数据库2000-2019年463篇公司治理视角下企业创新研究文献，运用CiteSpace 软件绘制文献时空分布、双期刊叠加、文献共引及聚类、关键词时区等知识图谱，厘清研究分布情况、脉络轨迹及发展前沿。结果表明，文献数量逐年提高且尚未达到峰值，美国、中国为高产国家，该领域研究存在不同学科期刊间的知识流动。研究视角划分为创新决策动态视角、特定股权背景视角、委托代理视角，形成了以所有权结构、董事会职能及高管治理对企业创新影响为基础的研究主题框架，研究热点和前沿随公司治理主体关注重点变化和创新类别细化发生动态演进。最后，针对研究薄弱环节，提出未来研究方向。     

企业文化的测量及其对企业绩效的影响研究综述

企业文化在企业管理中的作用及其对企业价值的贡献愈来愈大,所以近年来已逐渐成为大家研究的热点。从企业文化的度量方法及典型量表、企业文化对企业绩效影响的理论分析及实证分析对国外现有研究进行了系统分析、归纳与总结,最后对我国企业文化研究趋势进行了展望。     

产权、法律与公司治理

近年来针对公司治理的实证研究发现,产权、法律、市场以及企业组织形式等对公司治理机制具有重要影响.一个国家的产权和法律制度决定着其公司治理结构的演进路径和特征.在我国新兴加转轨的资本市场上,由于缺乏对投资者的有效司法保护,其他外部市场机制如何替代司法保护不足以促进公司治理改革和完善,将成为未来研究的重要课题之一.     

公司创业投资研究的热点与前沿——基于知识图谱的可视化分析

利用CiteSpaceⅢ软件,对1985—2016年期间国内外公司创业投资(CVC)研究文献进行了文献计量分析,探索性地界定了CVC的内涵和模式,明确了CVC研究领域的关键作者和关键文献,从"CVC投资机构"和"CVC投资组合企业"的二维视角梳理了CVC研究的发展脉络,指出了CVC研究的前沿与热点,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

市场微观结构视角的公司财务研究前沿综述

以往一直处于平行发展状态的市场微观结构理论和公司财务学近来出现了交叉融合的趋势,且这一视角的研究将随着我国股权分置改革的完成而变得日趋重要。文章系统回顾了市场微观结构中的两个重要研究主题股票流动性和信息不对称对公司财务行为影响的学术前沿动态,具体包括股票流动性和信息不对称对资产定价、融资决策、投资决策和公司治理等方面影响的文献。文章在对这些文献做出回顾与评述的基础上进一步指出了未来的研究方向。